A guess at tonight's CFP Top 12

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SelectionSunday

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Taking a flyer on Oregon passing Alabama for the #1 spot. ...

12. Georgia Tech (10-2) -- best win @ Georgia, worst loss @ North Carolina
11. Kansas State (9-2) -- best win @ Oklahoma, worst loss Auburn
10. Mississippi State (10-2) -- best win @ LSU, worst loss @ Ole Miss
9. Wisconsin (10-2) -- best win Minnesota, worst loss @ Northwestern
8. Michigan State (10-2) -- best win Nebraska, worst loss Ohio State
7. Arizona (10-2) -- best win @ Oregon, worst loss USC
6. Baylor (10-1) -- best win TCU, worst loss @ West Virginia
5. Ohio State (11-1) -- best win @ Michigan State, worst loss Virginia Tech
4. TCU (10-1) -- best win Kansas State, worst loss @ Baylor
3. Florida State (12-0) -- best win @ Louisville
2. Alabama (11-1) -- best win Mississippi State, worst loss @ Ole Miss
1. Oregon (11-1) -- best win Michigan State, worst loss Arizona

Quite interested to see how the Top 25 shakes down tonight. Teams staying in the top 25 despite a loss (i.e. Gophers, Auburn), moving in (perhaps Nebraska, LSU and/or Cincinnati?), or dropping out (Utah) could have an impact on how/where the top teams are slotted. Certainly TCU and OSU hope like h*ll the Gophers remain in the top 25 (I expect they will), while 'Bama and Mississippi State could use the likes of Auburn and LSU in the top 25.

Cincinnati could be a wildcard for the Buckeyes. Does the committee think enough of the Bearcats to put them at the tail end of the top 25? Very doubtful, but if the Bearcats do slide in there, that's potentially another top 25 win for the Buckeyes.

Discuss?
 

If the Bearcats sneak into the Top-25, and OSU beats Wisconsin, OSU will have 4 Top-25 wins, with only 1 at home.

That, my friends, is a resume.
 

I'd put Miss St over Wisconsin just due to the win over LSU and Wisconsin's loss there. But otherwise I can't argue with your selections. The one to watch is how they grade OSU without knowing how they'll be minus Barrett. Could see Baylor hopping them for this week with OSU moving back ahead with any win over Wisconsin and likely jumping TCU as well. Also interesting how they grade the Gophers. 3 of 4 losses are to top ten teams in the rankings. I would expect us to be the 2nd highest rated 4 loss team
 

SelectionSunday said:
Taking a flyer on Oregon passing Alabama for the #1 spot. ...

12. Georgia Tech (10-2) -- best win @ Georgia, worst loss @ North Carolina
11. Kansas State (9-2) -- best win @ Oklahoma, worst loss Auburn
10. Mississippi State (10-2) -- best win @ LSU, worst loss @ Ole Miss
9. Wisconsin (10-2) -- best win Minnesota, worst loss @ Northwestern
8. Michigan State (10-2) -- best win Nebraska, worst loss Ohio State
7. Arizona (10-2) -- best win @ Oregon, worst loss USC
6. Baylor (10-1) -- best win TCU, worst loss @ West Virginia
5. Ohio State (11-1) -- best win @ Michigan State, worst loss Virginia Tech
4. TCU (10-1) -- best win Kansas State, worst loss @ Baylor
3. Florida State (12-0) -- best win @ Louisville
2. Alabama (11-1) -- best win Mississippi State, worst loss @ Ole Miss
1. Oregon (11-1) -- best win Michigan State, worst loss Arizona

Quite interested to see how the Top 25 shakes down tonight. Teams staying in the top 25 despite a loss (i.e. Gophers, Auburn), moving in (perhaps Nebraska, LSU and/or Cincinnati?), or dropping out (Utah) could have an impact on how/where the top teams are slotted. Certainly TCU and OSU hope like h*ll the Gophers remain in the top 25 (I expect they will), while 'Bama and Mississippi State could use the likes of Auburn and LSU in the top 25.

Cincinnati could be a wildcard for the Buckeyes. Does the committee think enough of the Bearcats to put them at the tail end of the top 25? Very doubtful, but if the Bearcats do slide in there, that's potentially another top 25 win for the Buckeyes.

Discuss?
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I don't see any possible way that Oregon jumps Bama.
 



Took a chance moving Oregon ahead of Alabama, but for sure they'll be 1-2 again.

Any chance TCU passes Florida State for #3 after another unimpressive victory by the Seminoles? Doubtful, but just a thought. One thing is clear, if FSU gags vs. Georgia Tech I don't think they're getting in, unless upsets abound this weekend. Committee seems to have very little respect for FSU. Am certainly OK with that, but if they win 13-0 is 13-0. Go Ramblin' Wreck!
 

We need an SEC team (likely Mississippi St) to stay in front of MSU or Michigan State will go to the Orange Bowl, correct?

And if MSU goes to the Orange Bowl, the Big Ten loses the Citrus Bowl tie in, correct?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Taking a flyer on Oregon passing Alabama for the #1 spot. ...

12. Georgia Tech (10-2) -- best win @ Georgia, worst loss @ North Carolina
11. Kansas State (9-2) -- best win @ Oklahoma, worst loss Auburn
10. Mississippi State (10-2) -- best win @ LSU, worst loss @ Ole Miss
9. Wisconsin (10-2) -- best win Minnesota, worst loss @ Northwestern
8. Michigan State (10-2) -- best win Nebraska, worst loss Ohio State
7. Arizona (10-2) -- best win @ Oregon, worst loss USC
6. Baylor (10-1) -- best win TCU, worst loss @ West Virginia
5. Ohio State (11-1) -- best win @ Michigan State, worst loss Virginia Tech
4. TCU (10-1) -- best win Kansas State, worst loss @ Baylor
3. Florida State (12-0) -- best win @ Louisville
2. Alabama (11-1) -- best win Mississippi State, worst loss @ Ole Miss
1. Oregon (11-1) -- best win Michigan State, worst loss Arizona
Click to expand...

I really hope they move to 8 in the future. I think this year is a good example of why 8 would work. Both 5 and 6 have a strong argument to be included. However, it would to be hard to get angry about 8,9,10 or 11 being excluded.
 

As of this moment, right now, is TCU the biggest lock to make the playoff? They will win in a blowout against Iowa St.

Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor all have a very realistic shot of losing, and Alabama will not have a cake walk. How much weight would losing in a conference championship game have? Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona and Kansas State would all equal the win total of their currently high-ranked opponent (Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Baylor) if they win.
 



gopher7 said:
As of this moment, right now, is TCU the biggest lock to make the playoff? They will win in a blowout against Iowa St.

Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor all have a very realistic shot of losing, and Alabama will not have a cake walk. How much weight would losing in a conference championship game have? Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona and Kansas State would all equal the win total of their currently high-ranked opponent (Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Baylor) if they win.
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Absolutely not. Baylor could easily flop with them this weekend with a W over K State and the win in head to head. I don't see the committee granting the B12 2 teams. Yes the rest have a shot of losing, but given they all win (OSU, Baylor, Alabama, FSU) TCU is going to have a very stomach churning wait coming up b/c their win this weekend will do nothing to strengthen their claim where all the others will
 

SelectionSunday said:
Took a chance moving Oregon ahead of Alabama, but for sure they'll be 1-2 again.

Any chance TCU passes Florida State for #3 after another unimpressive victory by the Seminoles? Doubtful, but just a thought. One thing is clear, if FSU gags vs. Georgia Tech I don't think they're getting in, unless upsets abound this weekend. Committee seems to have very little respect for FSU. Am certainly OK with that, but if they win 13-0 is 13-0. Go Ramblin' Wreck!
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What happens if two of these three happen: Arizona beats Oregon, Wisconsin beats OSU, and Kansas St beats Baylor. And then if Georgia Tech beats Florida St. That would leave TCU, Alabama, Florida St. and then one of the other three as the only 1-loss teams.

I wonder if they pick a 2-loss team over a 1-loss Florida St.

Or here is a nightmare scenario: Arizona beats Oregon, Wisconsin beats OSU, Kansas St. beats Baylor, and Georgia Tech beats Florida St. That leaves Alabama, TCU and Florida St. as the only 1-loss teams. Who gets the fourth spot? Probably Arizona but Wisconsin would probably not be far behind. I'd guess they would jump Michigan St., Baylor, Mississippi St. in that scenario for sure. Maybe even Oregon? Depends on how much the committee puts on winning the conference (and how much influence Barry has).

It won't happen but it is a lot closer to happening than I thought.
 

GophersInIowa said:
What happens if two of these three happen: Arizona beats Oregon, Wisconsin beats OSU, and Kansas St beats Baylor. And then if Georgia Tech beats Florida St. That would leave TCU, Alabama, Florida St. and then one of the other three as the only 1-loss teams.

I wonder if they pick a 2-loss team over a 1-loss Florida St.

Or here is a nightmare scenario: Arizona beats Oregon, Wisconsin beats OSU, Kansas St. beats Baylor, and Georgia Tech beats Florida St. That leaves Alabama, TCU and Florida St. as the only 1-loss teams. Who gets the fourth spot? Probably Arizona but Wisconsin would probably not be far behind. I'd guess they would jump Michigan St., Baylor, Mississippi St. in that scenario for sure. Maybe even Oregon? Depends on how much the committee puts on winning the conference (and how much influence Barry has).

It won't happen but it is a lot closer to happening than I thought.
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You realize your two scenarios are the same right?

Edit: nevermind, skipped over the two of three part.
 






Nebraska and Utah better not be in the CFP Top 25 or that's some bullsh!t imo.
 

Nebraska I agree.
Why do you dislike Utah?

Nearly identical losses to the gophers but they have the better "best win" UCLA
 

So we lost to Ohio St. by 7 at home and barely move in the rankings. We lose by 10 at Wisconsin and fall at least 8 spots out of the top 25. It's not a huge deal, just surprised. Would have been nice to see a number by our name at the bowl game.

I'm surprised Wisconsin only moved up 1 spot as well.
 

GophersInIowa said:
So we lost to Ohio St. by 7 at home and barely move in the rankings. We lose by 10 at Wisconsin and fall at least 8 spots out of the top 25. It's not a huge deal, just surprised. Would have been nice to see a number by our name at the bowl game.

I'm surprised Wisconsin only moved up 1 spot as well.
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They don't do rankings in a poll format, so you shouldn't read into them the same way you read into a poll
 

Some guy said:
Nebraska I agree.
Why do you dislike Utah?

Nearly identical losses to the gophers but they have the better "best win" UCLA
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Also 8-4 if I am not mistaken and needed late pick 6 to beat a 2 win Colorado team. Just my opinion.
 

supadupafly said:
8-5 if I am not mistaken and needed late pick 6 to beat a 2 win Colorado team. Just my opinion.
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Gophers needed a kick return to beat northwestern and a game winning kick to beat Purdue.


I agree Utah isn't that good. Utah and the gophers are both overrated
 

Alright so hear this out. If Arizona loses to Oregon (likely), Baylor loses to k-State (could happen), FSU loses to Georgia Tech (could happen), and OSU loses to Wisconsin (likely) is Kansas State in the playoff?

That would be awesome. I know what I'm cheering for this week.
 

afurry91 said:
Alright so hear this out. If Arizona loses to Oregon (likely), Baylor loses to k-State (could happen), FSU loses to Georgia Tech (could happen), and OSU loses to Wisconsin (likely) is Kansas State in the playoff?

That would be awesome. I know what I'm cheering for this week.
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No. Lost to Auburn. Demolished by TCU. They will give that spot to someone else (FSU stays, Miss St (gross) jumps up, etc). No way they give 2 slots to the B12 unless it's Baylor and TCU
 

upnorthkid said:
No. Lost to Auburn. Demolished by TCU. They will give that spot to someone else (FSU stays, Miss St (gross) jumps up, etc). No way they give 2 slots to the B12 unless it's Baylor and TCU
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So they'd just have some phantom team jump them? Wisconsin? Georgia Tech? If it's not those two, I don't see anyone else you could argue for.
 

afurry91 said:
So they'd just have some phantom team jump them? Wisconsin? Georgia Tech? If it's not those two, I don't see anyone else you could argue for.
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Baka and Oregon would be locks. Leaves 2 spots, one of which is TCUs in that scenario. Given the scenario you described, FSU still would be my likely choice to remain in the playoffs due to be only one loss to a higher ranked team since KSU lost to Auburn. thats my likely thoughts. No way the B12 gets 2 unless it's TCU and Baylor
 

It now looks almost certain that if Missouri takes down Alabama, the SEC gets shut out altogether. Go Tigers.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
It now looks almost certain that if Missouri takes down Alabama, the SEC gets shut out altogether. Go Tigers.
Click to expand...

Only way would be if there's a run of losses by the favorites like furry described and even then it's a huge long shot
 

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