Tiering the Big Ten, 2014-15

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SelectionSunday

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Tier 1
Wisconsin -- clear-cut favorite with Dekker and Kaminsky already announcing their returns.

Tier 2
Michigan -- retaining any of McGary, Robinson, and/or Stauskas should be considered a bonus.
Michigan State -- likely will lose Harris.
Ohio State
Nebraska -- assumes Petteway won't make a dumb decision and leave early.

Tier 3
Illinois
Indiana -- Angry Baby (Yogi Ferrell) needs to get others more involved next season.
Iowa
Maryland -- Big Ten newbie could be a real wildcard.
Minnesota -- PF, an improved Andre Hollins, and someone to replace Austin Hollins the keys for Gophers.

Tier 4
Northwestern -- could surprise with Chris Collins' heralded recruiting class (by NU standards), but conference schedule is B-R-U-T-A-L.
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers -- likely the first 14th-place finisher in Big Ten history.

Gophers have 7 games vs. Tier 1/Tier 2, 5 games vs. Tier 3, and 6 games vs. Tier 4.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Tier 1
Wisconsin -- clear-cut favorite with Dekker and Kaminsky already announcing their returns.

Tier 2
Michigan -- retaining any of McGary, Robinson, and/or Stauskas should be considered a bonus.
Michigan State -- likely will lose Harris.
Ohio State
Nebraska -- assumes Petteway won't make a dumb decision and leave early.

Tier 3
Illinois
Indiana -- Angry Baby (Yogi Ferrell) needs to get others more involved next season.
Iowa
Maryland -- Big Ten newbie could be a real wildcard.
Minnesota -- PF, an improved Andre Hollins, and someone to replace Austin Hollins the keys for Gophers.

Tier 4
Northwestern -- could surprise with Chris Collins' heralded recruiting class (by NU standards) coming in.
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers -- likely the first 14th-place finisher in Big Ten history.

Gophers have 7 games vs. Tier 1/Tier 2, 5 games vs. Tier 3, and 6 games vs. Tier 4.
Click to expand...

I would move Ohio State down one, but everything else I agree with. I think we'll finish between 5th and 8th.
 


I think Nebraska was kind of a fluke. I'll be shocked if they're in that tier. I also think Michigan will be in a tier by itself, just barely behind Wisconsin (unless two of those three leave). I can't imagine McGary would leave. I would've maybe left last year if I were him. Such an awful draft.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Tier 1

Tier 2
Michigan -- retaining any of McGary, Robinson, and/or Stauskas should be considered a bonus.
Michigan State -- likely will lose Harris.
Ohio State
Nebraska -- assumes Petteway won't make a dumb decision and leave early.

Gophers have 7 games vs. Tier 1/Tier 2, 5 games vs. Tier 3, and 6 games vs. Tier 4.
Click to expand...

Agree with your general order. I'm not sure about Ohio State one way or another. They lose a lot but have a highly rated group of new recruits.

I think McGary almost has to stay just to show that he's healthy and productive enough to merit a first round pick. Stauskas is probably a lock to go. I don't know that Robinson helps himself by staying but we haven't heard much about him leaving.
 


I think if Michigan brings their guys back they're just as good as Wisconsin. OSU losses their back court and Ross, it'll depend how good their frosh guards are. I think Sparty even without Harris will end up around third or fourth. I think Nebraska, Illinois and Minnesota will be even next year, 5-7 range. We were close in Lincoln without Dre and next year we get them twice. should win at home. I would lump Iowa, and Maryland and IU in the 8-10 range and than NW at 11th, Purdue 12th, PSU 13th and Rutgers in the cellar. Looking at our big ten schedule I don't see why we can't finish 10-8 or 11-7, anything more is a stretch.
 

Gopherguy0723 said:
I would move Ohio State down one, but everything else I agree with. I think we'll finish between 5th and 8th.
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Ohio State has 3 top 30 recruits coming in in addition to graduate-transfer Anthony Lee. I personally think they'll be better than this year!
 

Stauskas is gone. Not a chance he stays. Wisconsin will win the conference going away next year. MSU is losing 3 starters. After Wisconsin, the conference is really a crapshoot.
 




Minnesota, Iowa and wild card Maryland in the top of their tier. Nebraska moves down. Even with Wisconsin's success in the tournament they are still very beatable by half of the conference, they won't have an easy run of things. Maryland has always been a team I've watched through the years(my aunt is a season ticket holder) they definitely are a good program and can challenge B1G teams. Dez Wells and Deandre Mathieu are both senior PG's who will carry their teams above expectations.
 

Michigan definitely Tier 1 if 2 of those 3 return (perhaps even with only 1 of the 3), Sparty definitely Tier 1 if Harris returns.

Ohio State will be Ohio State. The Buckeyes are always a factor. Finishing 5th (this past season) is about as low as we should ever expect them to drop as long as Matta is coach.

I can't disagree with those questioning my placement of Nebraska. Huskers have a lot coming back but need to prove 2013-14 wasn't a fluke.
 

Serious question for this thread. 99% of posters on here have been ecstatic about this year, and think we have all the momentum in the world. We finished 7th in the B1G, and based on Selection's tier system, the consensus (I'm guessing?) is that we will finish around 7th next year?

Assuming we finish between 6th -8th place next season, with 4 of our top players being seniors (Lil' Dre, Andre, Mo, EE), where do you think this team ends up in 2 years? It seems to me that next year's team in all likelihood ends up better than the 2015-16 squad. If true, where is the unbridled optimism coming from? That Josh Martin is the 2nd coming of McHale, or that we will land some other big-time recruits?
 

John Galt said:
Serious question for this thread. 99% of posters on here have been ecstatic about this year, and think we have all the momentum in the world. We finished 7th in the B1G, and based on Selection's tier system, the consensus (I'm guessing?) is that we will finish around 7th next year?

Assuming we finish between 6th -8th place next season, with 4 of our top players being seniors (Lil' Dre, Andre, Mo, EE), where do you think this team ends up in 2 years? It seems to me that next year's team in all likelihood ends up better than the 2015-16 squad. If true, where is the unbridled optimism coming from? That Josh Martin is the 2nd coming of McHale, or that we will land some other big-time recruits?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I would use the word "unbridled." The optimism you are seeing is, in my opinion, trust that the coaching staff and AD know what they are doing.

That has not been the feeling for most in a long time. The last time for the coaching staff was probably the day Tubby was hired and increased after an overachieving first year (sound familiar?). It began to wane after that, leading to a seemingly tired head coach and overmatched or, perhaps, incapable support staff. In like a lion, out like a lamb is how Tubby will be remembered by this 19 year season ticket holder - both during each season and overall.

Prior to that we had one year of good basketball (Grier) with Dan Monson and a lot of PUTRID garbage.

Meanwhile, the man in charge of it all during those 2 periods - the AD - was clearly a nice man, but not a Big Ten AD. And more interested in fairness than ruthlessness.

Now we have a sense of renewal. Rich Pit has proven he is capable as a coach - getting as much out of these guys as most realists could expect. Matching wits with legendary coaches in only his second year. Getting interest from big-time recruits (yes, he needs to land them). But the thought is that he is young, energetic and will get better - not tired. His staff appears to be VERY capable and equally energetic. And the AD seems to be interested in getting things done and moving up in the conference. The future of sports at the U of MN is bright, in my opinion. Finally.
 



GopherJake said:
I'm not sure I would use the word "unbridled." The optimism you are seeing is, in my opinion, trust that the coaching staff and AD know what they are doing.

That has not been the feeling for most in a long time. The last time for the coaching staff was probably the day Tubby was hired and increased after an overachieving first year (sound familiar?). It began to wane after that, leading to a seemingly tired head coach and overmatched or, perhaps, incapable support staff. In like a lion, out like a lamb is how Tubby will be remembered by this 19 year season ticket holder - both during each season and overall.

Prior to that we had one year of good basketball (Grier) with Dan Monson and a lot of PUTRID garbage.

Meanwhile, the man in charge of it all during those 2 periods - the AD - was clearly a nice man, but not a Big Ten AD. And more interested in fairness than ruthlessness.

Now we have a sense of renewal. Rich Pit has proven he is capable as a coach - getting as much out of these guys as most realists could expect. Matching wits with legendary coaches in only his second year. Getting interest from big-time recruits (yes, he needs to land them). But the thought is that he is young, energetic and will get better - not tired. His staff appears to be VERY capable and equally energetic. And the AD seems to be interested in getting things done and moving up in the conference. The future of sports at the U of MN is bright, in my opinion. Finally.
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Good post. I like what I've seen out of Pitino so far, but recruiting for the remainder of this class and next year's class is going to be the key for him. I'm still upset that we didn't land the Big 3 or Macura this year. The Big 3 is understandable, but it seemed like he slow played JP and it cost us.
 

John Galt said:
The Big 3 is understandable, but it seemed like he slow played JP and it cost us.
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Totally agree. Maybe he figured he would land one of the other national recruits that showed interest. Appears to have been mishandled though, at this point.
 

GameDay said:
Ohio State has 3 top 30 recruits coming in in addition to graduate-transfer Anthony Lee. I personally think they'll be better than this year!
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You never know with freshman though. Some of them don't make much of an impact even though they are ranked highly. Kentucky last year is kind of an example of this (NIT 1st round loss).
 

GopherJake said:
Totally agree. Maybe he figured he would land one of the other national recruits that showed interest. Appears to have been mishandled though, at this point.
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Other people have alluded to the point that JP always wanted to go to a smaller school (I am not plugged in at all, just parroting what a few posters have said on other threads). So, it's possible we never had a real shot with him.
 

Only changes I would make would be moving Illinois and Maryland each up a tier. I think those two teams are going to be much-improved next season since they lose little (and in Maryland's case pretty much nothing) and have some key additions (IL moreso than MD in terms of the instant impact expected from the guys that are eligible next year).
 

mcal24 said:
You never know with freshman though. Some of them don't make much of an impact even though they are ranked highly. Kentucky last year is kind of an example of this (NIT 1st round loss).
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Yeah, it's hard to know what to expect when freshmen are involved. D'Angelo Russell is probably going to start and play reasonably well, but he'll be the only freshman that will start for them. I think they will have a solid team, probably similar to this past season, but with six of their 11 scholarship players not playing for their team last year it's hard to know what to expect. The key for them is finding ways to score, with by far the best option in Ross gone from what was already a poor shooting team.

2014 was actually Matta's worst 3-point shooting team since he's been at OSU, and in the past 3 years he's had 3 of his 4 worst in terms of 3-point %. The one common denominator on those teams was those were the years Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith both started in the backcourt. While they were very good on defense, they were not particularly good offensive players. Now, you're not guaranteed to shoot better with new players, but it's not easy to shoot as bad as 32%, not with as many former top-100 guards and wings as they will have on that team. They will have more talent than last year, but not as much experience.
 

John Galt said:
Serious question for this thread. 99% of posters on here have been ecstatic about this year, and think we have all the momentum in the world. We finished 7th in the B1G, and based on Selection's tier system, the consensus (I'm guessing?) is that we will finish around 7th next year?

Assuming we finish between 6th -8th place next season, with 4 of our top players being seniors (Lil' Dre, Andre, Mo, EE), where do you think this team ends up in 2 years? It seems to me that next year's team in all likelihood ends up better than the 2015-16 squad. If true, where is the unbridled optimism coming from? That Josh Martin is the 2nd coming of McHale, or that we will land some other big-time recruits?
Click to expand...

I think it's really hard to know where we would be in two years. That's an eternity when it comes to development. If the young guys really develop and Morris (and maybe other Juco/senior transfers) are very good, it's not out of the question for us to be pretty good in 2015-16. Of course none of those things could happen too and we could finish in the bottom four or five.
 

John Galt said:
Good post. I like what I've seen out of Pitino so far, but recruiting for the remainder of this class and next year's class is going to be the key for him. I'm still upset that we didn't land the Big 3 or Macura this year. The Big 3 is understandable, but it seemed like he slow played JP and it cost us.
Click to expand...

Pitino offered Macura after he saw him play for the first time and Xavier offered even later
 

Interesting thread, I am not ready to tier the Big Ten going in to next year with all the roster uncertainty still to play out. I do like where Illinois was headed at the end of last year, but time will tell if they can be that effective on the defensive end over the course of an entire season. If I had to pick one team that was going to make a jump, it would be the Illini. I understand not wanting to bet against Izzo, but he loses Appling, Payne and (most likely) Harris. If there was going to be a year where MSU is a .500 type team in the Big Ten, next year could be that year. As for Wisconsin, I am pretty sure they will be the favorite going in to next season, but I wouldn't put any money on them winning the league. This is the same group of guys who lost 5 in a row this year, the same group that lost at Nebraska with a 1 seed still a possibility for them.
 



GuyFawkes said:
Here is the "Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2014-15" from espn, surprise to me was SMU at 11(yeah I know about Mudiay, but still) and Iowa being on the list at all


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...-top-25-2014-15-men-college-basketball-season
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Not a surprise, it's Eamon Brennan. He doesn't miss a chance to give Iowa a little publicity. He went on and on about them in his "bubble watch" last year even after it was clear they had no shot at making the tournament.
 


Next Year

Good list, tier 1 wisconsin.
Tier 2, if Robinson and McGary return to join ever improving LeVert, we should probably just have Michigan there. Then tier 3 I would put Mich St. and Oh st. This may be the most trying seasons for both clubs and they may have a ton of trouble scoring. Can Thompson being a consistent leading scorer for them, guards rated as high as Russell usaully are double digit scorers?? Dawson will probably need to average 15+ per game and I am not sure he will for MSU to compete at the top. Dez Wells 6'5" 215 sr wing could lead Maryland into top of Teir 4, I believe they probably have the 3rd most talented/celebrated roster but can they have success in a physical league in their first year? So basically move Michigan up into its own tier 2, mich st and oh st. in tier 3. move nebraska down to join a huge tier 4.


SelectionSunday said:
Tier 1
Wisconsin -- clear-cut favorite with Dekker and Kaminsky already announcing their returns.

Tier 2
Michigan -- retaining any of McGary, Robinson, and/or Stauskas should be considered a bonus.
Michigan State -- likely will lose Harris.
Ohio State
Nebraska -- assumes Petteway won't make a dumb decision and leave early.

Tier 3
Illinois
Indiana -- Angry Baby (Yogi Ferrell) needs to get others more involved next season.
Iowa
Maryland -- Big Ten newbie could be a real wildcard.
Minnesota -- PF, an improved Andre Hollins, and someone to replace Austin Hollins the keys for Gophers.

Tier 4
Northwestern -- could surprise with Chris Collins' heralded recruiting class (by NU standards), but conference schedule is B-R-U-T-A-L.
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers -- likely the first 14th-place finisher in Big Ten history.

Gophers have 7 games vs. Tier 1/Tier 2, 5 games vs. Tier 3, and 6 games vs. Tier 4.
Click to expand...
 

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