Road to Selection Sunday: With Championship Week Upon Us, 5 At-Large Bids Available

Road to Selection Sunday: With Championship Week Upon Us, Roughly 5 At-Large Bids Available
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/355626?referrer_id=388419

PALMS A SWEATIN', MINN. -- The bubble just got really tight for the Gophers after another failed opportunity in Ann Arbor. At this writing (Sunday morning), I have 52 of the 68 NCAA bids (32 auto bids, 20 locks) accounted for, with another 11 teams sitting "on the threshold", in excellent shape to get a bid. Essentially, I believe those teams become locks simply by winning one or maybe two more games.

That leaves 5 at-large bids available. I have 17 teams competing for those 5 spots (a couple might surprise you, hint, one of 'em wears orange & blue), however, of those 17 there are 9 squarely on the bubble. In RTSS' estimation, those 9 are the truest of the true "bubblers". They are the Gophers, Cal, Dayton, Missouri, Nebraska, Oregon, Providence, Stanford, and Tennessee. Obviously, some of those teams won't make the NCAA Tournament, not to mention that the bubble is sure to shrink further with a few bid-stealers during a Championship Week that kicks off Monday with the first round of the Patriot League Tournament (#9 Lafayette @ #8 Loyola-Maryland, #10 Navy @ #7 Colgate).

So without further babble, here's how RTSS views the NCAA tourney field on the advent of Championship Week. Tournament candidates are separated into 5 categories: (1) conference leaders/highest remaining seed in conference tourney; (2) locks; (3) on the threshold; (4) truest of the true bubblers; and (5) still in the mix. Teams RPI's are noted in parentheses.

Conference Leaders/Highest Remaining Seeds (32)

America East: Vermont (98)

American: Cincinnati (16)

ACC: Virginia (10)

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (148)

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis (17)

Big East: Villanova (4)

Big Sky: Weber State (181)

Big South: High Point (170)

Big Ten: Michigan (12)

Big XII: Kansas (2)

Big West: UC-Irvine (107)

Colonial: Delaware (74)

Conference USA: Southern Miss (37)

Horizon: Green Bay (51)

Ivy: Harvard (53)

MAAC: Iona (68)

MAC: Toledo (39)

MEAC: North Carolina Central (117)

Missouri Valley: Wichita State (6)

Mountain West: San Diego State (22)

Northeast: Robert Morris (113)

Ohio Valley: Belmont (59)

Pac 12: Arizona (1)

Patriot: Boston U (79)

SEC: Florida (3)

Southern: Davidson (130)

Southland: Stephen F. Austin (69)

SWAC: Alabama State (266)

Summit: North Dakota State (42)

Sun Belt: Georgia State (86)

West Coast: Gonzaga (26)

WAC: Utah Valley (140)


Locks (20)

American: Connecticut (27), Louisville (31), Memphis (32)

ACC: Syracuse (7), Duke (9), North Carolina (19)

Atlantic 10: Massachusetts (13), VCU (15)

Big East: Creighton (8)

Big Ten: Wisconsin (5), Ohio State (23), Michigan State (24)

Big XII: Iowa State (11), Oklahoma (21), Texas (25), Kansas State (36)

Mountain West: New Mexico (14)

Pac 12: UCLA (20), Arizona State (28)

SEC: Kentucky (18)


On the Threshold (11)

American: SMU (41)

ACC: Pitt (44)

Atlantic 10: George Washington (29), Saint Joseph's (35)

Big East: Xavier (38)

Big Ten: Iowa (40)

Big XII: Oklahoma State (45), Baylor (46)

Pac 12: Colorado (30)

SEC: Arkansas (58)

West Coast: BYU (34)


Truest of the True Bubblers (9)

Atlantic 10: Dayton (49)

Big East: Providence (56)

Big Ten: GOPHERS (47), Nebraska (54)

Pac 12: Oregon (33), Stanford (43), Cal (50)

SEC: Tennessee (48), Missouri (52)


In the Mix (8)

ACC: Florida State (57), Clemson (76)

Big East: Saint John's (60), Georgetown (61), Marquette (70)

Big Ten: Illinois (71)

Mountain West: Boise State (55)

SEC: LSU (64)

RTSS wishes you a happy Championship Week(s), and while we're at it, let's hope we see a lot of bubble teams lose this week leading up to the Gophers' Senior Night and season finale Sunday vs. Penn State. I have a feeling there's going to be lots of "bottom line scroll watching" this week.

Take Marquette off the bubble board

Warriors trounced 73-56 by Villanova.

Penn State is going to be a tough one I fear. Hopefully MSU stays at the #2 seed because I'd rather face them in round 2 of the BTT than Wisconsin.

Looks like Badgers will be the 2 seed. All they have to do is stay even with Sparty. Have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Here are the schedules for some of the teams on the threshold and on the bubble for this week.
Arkansas-Wed vs.Ole Miss, Sat @Alabama
Baylor-Tue vs.Iowa State, Sat @Kansas State
Xavier-Mon @Seton Hall, Thu vs.Villanova
Dayton-Wed @Saint Louis, Sat vs.Richmond
Providence-Tue vs.Marquette, Sat @Creighton
Nebraska-Wed @Indiana, Sun vs.Wisconsin
Oregon-Tue vs.Arizona State, Sat vs.Arizona
Stanford-Tonight @Arizona, Wed vs.Colorado, Sat vs.Utah
California-Wed vs.Utah, Sat vs.Colorado
Tennessee-Wed @Auburn, Sat vs.Missouri
Missouri-Wed vs.Texas A&M, Sat vs.Tennessee
Florida State-Tonight vs.Georgia Tech, Tue @Boston College, Sun vs.Syracuse

SelectionSunday said:

Looks like Badgers will be the 2 seed. All they have to do is stay even with Sparty. Have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

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Yeah I was looking at that today and hope the Badgers do end up #2. Looking at their schedules Sparty has vs.Iowa and @Ohio State while Wisconsin has vs.Purdue and @Nebraska. I'm not sure who I would want to play in the first round but if we take care of business against Penn State and in the first game of the BTT I think Wisconsin would provide the best matchup for us to win a quarterfinal game. I'm hoping Ohio State can beat Indiana today because I think that would almost lock up the #7 seed for us as long as we beat Penn State.

SS -

I understand why Illinois is on the very, very fringe, but what if Indiana wins today at home against OSU (and it looks like they might)? That puts them at 7-9 in the league with possible wins coming against Nebraska and Michigan. On the off chance they win out, they'd be 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall, with two wins over Michigan, and wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. How high would they jump in the RPI? As unlikely as it is that they win out, I think its about the same chance Illinois has of winning out.

Just wondering if Indiana can get into bubble discussion heading to Indianapolis.

In fact, if the Hoosiers win today, for the moment, they move into 7th and the Gophers drop to 8th in the Big Ten.

tjgopher said:

SS -

I understand why Illinois is on the very, very fringe, but what if Indiana wins today at home against OSU (and it looks like they might)? That puts them at 7-9 in the league with possible wins coming against Nebraska and Michigan. On the off chance they win out, they'd be 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall, with two wins over Michigan, and wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. How high would they jump in the RPI? As unlikely as it is that they win out, I think its about the same chance Illinois has of winning out.

Just wondering if Indiana can get into bubble discussion heading to Indianapolis.

In fact, if the Hoosiers win today, for the moment, they move into 7th and the Gophers drop to 8th in the Big Ten.

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Yes, if they win the last three the Hoosiers could get in the mix. RPI was 89 starting today, so I couldn't really justify including 'em at the time I wrote this. As a general rule try not to include anyone with RPI greater than 75 (Clemson was an exception). IU does not have a win over the Gophers.

SelectionSunday said:

Yes, if they win the last two the Hoosiers could get in the mix. RPI was 89 starting today, so I couldn't really justify including 'em at the time I wrote this. As a general rule try not to include anyone with RPI greater than 75 (Clemson was an exception). IU does not have a win over the Gophers.

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Yeah, not sure why I typed Minnesota. Thank goodness they don't have a win over the Gophers. Fun time of year, that's for sure. Appreciate the insight.

tjgopher said:

SS -

I understand why Illinois is on the very, very fringe, but what if Indiana wins today at home against OSU (and it looks like they might)? That puts them at 7-9 in the league with possible wins coming against Nebraska and Michigan. On the off chance they win out, they'd be 9-9 in the Big Ten and 19-12 overall, with two wins over Michigan, and wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska. How high would they jump in the RPI? As unlikely as it is that they win out, I think its about the same chance Illinois has of winning out.

Just wondering if Indiana can get into bubble discussion heading to Indianapolis.

In fact, if the Hoosiers win today, for the moment, they move into 7th and the Gophers drop to 8th in the Big Ten.

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Seems to me that Indiana winning out would almost guarantee them a spot, two top 25 wins in the last week, and being Indiana they would be in.

It's a long shot anyway for the Gophers getting in, beat Penn State and win 2 in the B1G tournament and they are in, anything short of that I doubt it.

jovs said:

Seems to me that Indiana winning out would almost guarantee them a spot, two top 25 wins in the last week, and being Indiana they would be in.

It's a long shot anyway for the Gophers getting in, beat Penn State and win 2 in the B1G tournament and they are in, anything short of that I doubt it.

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Thing is, Indiana SOS is #72. Minnesota #3. That's tough for Indiana to overcome. That said, it wouldn't shock me if Indiana won the BTT. That would not be good for us.

jovs said:

Seems to me that Indiana winning out would almost guarantee them a spot, two top 25 wins in the last week, and being Indiana they would be in.

It's a long shot anyway for the Gophers getting in, beat Penn State and win 2 in the B1G tournament and they are in, anything short of that I doubt it.

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Gophers beat Penn State and win 2 in the B1G tourney and they are definitely in, beat Penn State and win 1 in the B1G tournament and I would put their chances at about 60% of getting in.
Indiana is playing well and I was surprised to see them beat Ohio State without Vonleh but they didn't beat anybody decent in non conference and their strength of schedule is pretty bad.

Sure would have been nice if the top five teams in this conference had been able to put a dagger in the hopes of the lower tier teams. Didn't think we would need to be looking in the rear view mirror at teams like Indiana and Illinois.

Goldy Gopher said:

Here are the schedules for some of the teams on the threshold and on the bubble for this week.
Arkansas-Wed vs.Ole Miss, Sat @Alabama
Baylor-Tue vs.Iowa State, Sat @Kansas State
Xavier-Mon @Seton Hall, Thu vs.Villanova
Dayton-Wed @Saint Louis, Sat vs.Richmond
Providence-Tue vs.Marquette, Sat @Creighton
Nebraska-Wed @Indiana, Sun vs.Wisconsin
Oregon-Tue vs.Arizona State, Sat vs.Arizona
Stanford-Tonight @Arizona, Wed vs.Colorado, Sat vs.Utah
California-Wed vs.Utah, Sat vs.Colorado
Tennessee-Wed @Auburn, Sat vs.Missouri
Missouri-Wed vs.Texas A&M, Sat vs.Missouri
Florida State-Tonight vs.Georgia Tech, Tue @Boston College, Sun vs.Syracuse

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Small Correction but you have Missouri playing themselves Saturday. They play Tennessee, I feel like that is a potential elimination game, pending the results of the SEC tourney. I think gophers actually have around a 70% chance if we win our next two.

Lunardi released his seed curve today and it appears he has the Gophers as his 'last team in'. I guess I'm pleasantly surprised by that. Leads me to believe we have a decent chance with 2 more wins if there aren't more than 1-2 bids stolen.

JSjobes24 said:

Small Correction but you have Missouri playing themselves Saturday. They play Tennessee, I feel like that is a potential elimination game, pending the results of the SEC tourney. I think gophers actually have around a 70% chance if we win our next two.

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Thanks fixed it, should have known I would mess up at least one of them.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>No and I don't think they're that close RT <a href="https://twitter.com/JBrandtAgency">@JBrandtAgency</a>: Is Minnesota in?</p>— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/statuses/440328337538682880">March 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I have a hard time seeing Nebraska getting left out at this point. A win at home against Wisky should seal it for them.

[/QUOTE] and being Indiana they would be in. [/QUOTE]

I guarantee you, the name of the team has no bearing on who is selected.

Perhaps I am not being very objective towards Mr. Davis here, as my personal dislike for him is difficult to abide, but I almost feel reassured that he has the Gophers so far on the outside of the bubble; as pompous gasbags who seem to be so often wrong go, Seth D. is towards the top of my list.

I also must comment. . .Davis has just written a book about John Wooden? To me, it's the equivalent of Michael Bay directing Shakespeare or Rebecca Black covering Bob Dylan. Just wayyyyyy out of Davis' league, in my estimation. I could be being very unfair in this analysis, but when I close my eyes and hear the grating voice of Seth Davis, there isn't the talent, nuance or gravitas that I associate with a book about Wooden.

PitinoFan said:

Thing is, Indiana SOS is #72. Minnesota #3. That's tough for Indiana to overcome. That said, it wouldn't shock me if Indiana won the BTT. That would not be good for us.

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I understand what the computers say about strength of schedule.....but I don't understand how indiana's schedule is so much easier than ours.....the played at Syracuse.....in a neutral site game against UCONN.....and against Washington and Notre Dame in their preseason......how is that so much different than Syracuse, Richmond, Arkansas and Florida State? In the B1G they will have played Michigan State twice, Michigan twice, Wisconsin twice, Illinois twice and Nebraska twice. They played Ohio State and Iowa once while we played Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska once. Not much of a difference when you look at actual games instead of a number generated by a computer. The biggest thing that gives us an advantage is our head to head win against them.

Ken Pomeroy has Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Nebraska all ranked right next to each other with Minnesota being the highest ranked.

ethomasp31 said:

I understand what the computers say about strength of schedule.....but I don't understand how indiana's schedule is so much easier than ours.....the played at Syracuse.....in a neutral site game against UCONN.....and against Washington and Notre Dame in their preseason......how is that so much different than Syracuse, Richmond, Arkansas and Florida State? In the B1G they will have played Michigan State twice, Michigan twice, Wisconsin twice, Illinois twice and Nebraska twice. They played Ohio State and Iowa once while we played Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska once. Not much of a difference when you look at actual games instead of a number generated by a computer. The biggest thing that gives us an advantage is our head to head win against them.

Ken Pomeroy has Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Nebraska all ranked right next to each other with Minnesota being the highest ranked.

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I agree that it doesn't look much different at first glance, but the numbers are quite shocking.

Non conference SOS - Indiana: 202 Minnesota: 28.

Many, many factors go into it, but I think the biggest deteriment to Indiana's at-large hopes is their nonconference schedule (as noted above), currently #204. Generally speaking, the selection committee doesn't like weak nonconference schedules (in the 200s) when looking at those last few bubble teams.

As for the Gophers, their biggest detriment far & away is the road/neutral record (3-9). That's why I think -- even if they beat Penn State to close the regular season -- they need a win or maybe even two at the BTT to enchance that. If they get dumped in their first game in Indy, that further validates how poor they are away from home.

Worth noting, IU also is 3-9 in road/neutral games.

Good as far as healing and practice time but I really wish it wasn't that long until the Penn State game and the tournament. This anxiety ain't good for an old guy.

Mulligan said:

Good as far as healing and practice time but I really wish it wasn't that long until the Penn State game and the tournament. This anxiety ain't good for an old guy.

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Agree. Have been thinking it would be good to have the usual Tuesday-Thursday game this week but with the bye most all the other bubble teams are getting a chance to enhance their resumes while the Gophers are sitting around watching all week.

SelectionSunday said:

Agree. Have been thinking it would be good to have the usual Tuesday-Thursday game this week but with the bye most all the other bubble teams are getting a chance to enhance their resumes while the Gophers are sitting around watching all week.

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Could also see a number of bubble teams hurt themselves this week though too never know how it might turn out for us this off week. Hopefully a number of bubble teams hurt themselves and we sit back and get rested and benefit at the same time.

SelectionSunday said:

Many, many factors go into it, but I think the biggest deteriment to Indiana's at-large hopes is their nonconference schedule (as noted above), currently #204. Generally speaking, the selection committee doesn't like weak nonconference schedules (in the 200s) when looking at those last few bubble teams.

As for the Gophers, their biggest detriment far & away is the road/neutral record (3-9). That's why I think -- even if they beat Penn State to close the regular season -- they need a win or maybe even two at the BTT to enchance that. If they get dumped in their first game in Indy, that further validates how poor they are away from home.

Worth noting, IU also is 3-9 in road/neutral games.

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I wouldn't mind seeing Indiana win out if Nebraska loses both their games. Neb. plays Indiana and Wisconsin so that scenario is possible. Best case is Indiana going on the road and beating Nebraska and then losing to Michigan with Nebraska losing both. I like the fact that we have the head to head against Indiana- whereas we are at a disadvantage against Nebraska on that score.

I don't know how Arkansas is viewed as being on the threshold with a 72 RPI. Is this forward looking or something?

Great to see Xavier (46 rpi according to ESPN) lose. Until I really looked at their resume I would have thought they were playing for seeding vs. just trying to get in. However, after this loss they have now been swept by Seton Hall (145 rpi) and also have loss to USC (175ish). Just like the Gophers, they have 3 top 50 rpi wins, but they do have 2 more top 100 wins than the Gophers. They end the conference season at home against Nova who blew them out in their first game.

My question is...If it came down to MN vs Xavier trying to get the last spot, what would weigh more? Gophers not having such bad losses, or Xavier having a couple more top 100 victories.

topos said:

Great to see Xavier (46 rpi according to ESPN) lose. Until I really looked at their resume I would have thought they were playing for seeding vs. just trying to get in. However, after this loss they have now been swept by Seton Hall (145 rpi) and also have loss to USC (175ish). Just like the Gophers, they have 3 top 50 rpi wins, but they do have 2 more top 100 wins than the Gophers. They end the conference season at home against Nova who blew them out in their first game.

My question is...If it came down to MN vs Xavier trying to get the last spot, what would weigh more? Gophers not having such bad losses, or Xavier having a couple more top 100 victories.

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It most likely will come down to their performance in their respective conference tournament. MN must first beat PSU and their first B1G tourney game. After that, even if Xavier loses vs. Nova, how do these two teams perform in the tourney? MN will likely need that second tourney victory to ensure a spot. If Xavier goes deep in their tourney I wouldn't worry about them. I would be more concerned with the performance of the other bubblers.