5 worst at-larges by RPI since field expanded to 68 teams

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SelectionSunday

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Something to chew on as we approach Championship Week (the Patriot League kicks things off Monday with 1st-round games @ campus sites). The Gophers' RPI currently rests at #44.

We're entering the 4th tournament with 68 teams.

# 67. USC – 2010-11 (First Four/lost)
# 64. Marquette -- 2010-11 (#11 seed)
# 57. Clemson -- 2010-11 (First Four/won)
# 57. West Virginia -- 2011-12 (#10 seed)
# 55. Florida State -- 2010-11 (#10 seed)
 



Thanks BTW. Also, don't mean to burden you but any idea on the best 4 RPI's to not get an at large bid?
 

WanderingGopher said:
Thanks BTW. Also, don't mean to burden you but any idea on the best 4 RPI's to not get an at large bid?
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I checked Palm's web site for past seasons, but he didn't have that specific information. Did notice that Southern Miss (#31) had the best RPI left out last season. USM could be headed for that same distinction this season. Louisiana Tech was next at #53.
 



SelectionSunday said:
I checked Palm's web site for past seasons, but he didn't have that specific information. Did notice that Southern Miss (#31) had the best RPI left out last season. USM could be headed for that same distinction this season. Louisiana Tech was next at #53.
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Wow, that's a pretty strong rpi to be left out. Two years in a row would be a pattern. What gives?
 

station19 said:
Wow, that's a pretty strong rpi to be left out. Two years in a row would be a pattern. What gives?
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They didn't deserve a bid last season (no top-50 wins), and the same likely will apply this season. What it tells me is their coach has learned how to manipulate the RPI with the way he schedules. Southern Miss tends to play a lot of road/neutral games (road wins count more heavily in the RPI), most of them against decent but not high-quality teams. Win enough of those road-neutrals and, presto, you have a solid RPI if you win a lot of league games in a middlin' conference like Conference USA.
 






Interesting. I have to think it's pretty rare for a BCS conference team with an RPI in the 40's to be left out since the tourney expanded to 68...whether we stay in the 40's remains TBD.

Sitting here with an RPI in the 40's right now though, a #5 SOS or whatever, and 3 wins vs top 20ish teams, plus a non-conf road win that was quality at the time it was played, and close losses to 'Cuse and MSU and Michigan, all of whom are Final Four caliber teams ... I just think it's ridiculous that at this point we're only considered by experts to be one of the last couple teams to make the field. IMO as of this moment we should be considered about a 10 seed.

*Not to mention, our two "bad" losses to 100+ RPI teams were effectively without Hollins (out vs NW and severely limited vs Purdue, prly should not have played).
 

WanderingGopher said:
Interesting. I have to think it's pretty rare for a BCS conference team with an RPI in the 40's to be left out since the tourney expanded to 68...whether we stay in the 40's remains TBD.

Sitting here with an RPI in the 40's right now though, a #5 SOS or whatever, and 3 wins vs top 20ish teams, plus a non-conf road win that was quality at the time it was played, and close losses to 'Cuse and MSU and Michigan, all of whom are Final Four caliber teams ... I just think it's ridiculous that at this point we're only considered by experts to be one of the last couple teams to make the field. IMO as of this moment we should be considered about a 10 seed.

*Not to mention, our two "bad" losses to 100+ RPI teams were effectively without Hollins (out vs NW and severely limited vs Purdue, prly should not have played).
Click to expand...

Actually that is pretty close to my thinking.

A road loss to a ranked team(Mich) and a home win(PSU) and a BTT win should bring us up and maybe get a 10 seed. I still prefer an 11 or 12.:)
 



L - W - W - L puts us at about a 52 according to RPI Forecast. I think the rest of our resume would be pretty solid with that record. Who do people think we'll match up with in the B1G first round?
 

If we were to get left out of the tournament field for a team with a higher RPI, then what negative aspect of our performance would the committee feels is not captured by our RPI?
 

Current Standings

Michigan..... 12-3 20-7
Michigan State 11-4 22-6
Wisconsin.......... 10-5 23-5
Ohio State............9-6 22-6
__________________________
Iowa 8-6 19-8
Nebraska 8-7 16-11
Minnesota 7-9 18-11
Indiana 5-9 15-12
Illinois 5-10 16-12
Purdue 5-10 15-13
Northwestern 5-10 12-16
Penn State 4-10 13-14

Currently we would be in a 7-10 match-up with Purdue(not sure if BT has the same tie-breaker as ESPN).

Good chance we remain at #7. #10 could fluctuate. We most likely would be favored.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings
 

station19 said:
Current Standings

Michigan..... 12-3 20-7
Michigan State 11-4 22-6
Wisconsin.......... 10-5 23-5
Ohio State............9-6 22-6
__________________________
Iowa 8-6 19-8
Nebraska 8-7 16-11
Minnesota 7-9 18-11
Indiana 5-9 15-12
Illinois 5-10 16-12
Purdue 5-10 15-13
Northwestern 5-10 12-16
Penn State 4-10 13-14

Currently we would be in a 7-10 match-up with Purdue(not sure if BT has the same tie-breaker as ESPN).

Good chance we remain at #7. #10 could fluctuate. We most likely would be favored.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings
Click to expand...

Correct, #10 will most certainly fluctuate. As of now, I believe Purdue would be the #9 and Illinois would be the #10. Head-to-head is first tiebreaker and Purdue beat Illinois in their only meeting this year.
 

Minnesota Gophers

vs. RPI TOP 25 2-5
vs. RPI TOP 50 3-7
vs. RPI TOP 100 6-9
vs. RPI TOP 150 10-11
vs. RPI SUB 150 7-0

A losing record vs every category except Sub 150. Should this be concerning?
 

station19 said:
Current Standings

Michigan..... 12-3 20-7
Michigan State 11-4 22-6
Wisconsin.......... 10-5 23-5
Ohio State............9-6 22-6
__________________________
Iowa 8-6 19-8
Nebraska 8-7 16-11
Minnesota 7-9 18-11
Indiana 5-9 15-12
Illinois 5-10 16-12
Purdue 5-10 15-13
Northwestern 5-10 12-16
Penn State 4-10 13-14

Currently we would be in a 7-10 match-up with Purdue(not sure if BT has the same tie-breaker as ESPN).

Good chance we remain at #7. #10 could fluctuate. We most likely would be favored.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings
Click to expand...

So, as of today our path to winning the tourney (assuming favorites win the other games) is:
1. Purdue
2. MSU
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan

2 teams we've beaten, one that we took to overtime on the road, and one that we should have beat but threw it away. I don't like our chances of winning the whole thing, but with all the parity there has been this year, it certainly isn't impossible. Like I always say, it'd be less of a longshot than the Brooks' Miracle team.
 

Cincinnati was the best "Big Conference" team C-USA a few years back to not get a bid at #40.

Generally if you are a top 50 RPI in the Big Conferences you are safe.


mvpJLAx.png
 

station19 said:
Current Standings

Michigan..... 12-3 20-7
Michigan State 11-4 22-6
Wisconsin.......... 10-5 23-5
Ohio State............9-6 22-6
__________________________
Iowa 8-6 19-8
Nebraska 8-7 16-11
Minnesota 7-9 18-11
Indiana 5-9 15-12
Illinois 5-10 16-12
Purdue 5-10 15-13
Northwestern 5-10 12-16
Penn State 4-10 13-14

Currently we would be in a 7-10 match-up with Purdue(not sure if BT has the same tie-breaker as ESPN).

Good chance we remain at #7. #10 could fluctuate. We most likely would be favored.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/standings
Click to expand...

I think ESPN's Big Ten standings just use overall record as the tie breaker, whereas the Big Ten uses head to head record against teams that are tied.

For instance in last year's three way tie for 7th between us, Illinois, and Purdue, we were 1-2 against the other two teams, 1-1 against Illinois, and 0-1 against Purdue. Purdue was 2-1, 1-1 against Illinois, and 1-0 against us, and Illinois was 2-2, 1-1 against both us and Purdue. Purdue's 2-1 record gave them the 7 seed, Illinois's 2-2 gave them the 8, and our 1-2 gave us the 9.

Had all three teams been tied in head to head record against one another (and assuming they still all ended up at 8-10 and with the same record vs. Indiana), I believe the next tie breaker is record against the Big Ten champion. Illinois would have gotten the 7 seed with a 1-0 record against Indiana, we would have gotten the 8 with a 1-1 record, and Purdue the 9 with an 0-2 record. I think it also just goes by winning percentage, not record, so a team with a 2-0 record against the Big Ten champ does not win a tie with a team with a 1-0 record against the champ, they remain tied, and the next tie breaker is record against the 2nd place Big Ten team and on down the line until the tie is broken.

Actually, had we just made about 75% of our free throws at Nebraska last year and won that game, we would have had a 9-9 record, tied with Iowa, and winning the tie breaker because of having beaten Indiana while Iowa had not. Scoring like 5 more points that game would have sent us from the Big Ten Tournament 9 seed all the way up to a 6 seed.
 

This image applies as well here.

2d2djer.jpg
 

station19 said:
Minnesota Gophers

vs. RPI TOP 25 2-5
vs. RPI TOP 50 3-7
vs. RPI TOP 100 6-9
vs. RPI TOP 150 10-11
vs. RPI SUB 150 7-0

A losing record vs every category except Sub 150. Should this be concerning?
Click to expand...

You're not looking at it like the committee does. Aggregate instead of Composite record.

0-252-5
25-501-2
50-1003-2
100-1504-2
150+7-0

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

Gold Vision said:
You're not looking at it like the committee does. Aggregate instead of Composite record.

0-252-5
25-501-2
50-1003-2
100-1504-2
150+7-0

<tbody>
</tbody>
Click to expand...

I was going to point out the same thing. They only have a sub .500 against the top 50 RPI, .600 against 50-100, .667 against 100-150, and 1.000 against 150+. I would like to have seen another top 50 win and the NW loss stung (100-150), but I'm pretty satisfied with these records overall.
 

Gold Vision said:
You're not looking at it like the committee does. Aggregate instead of Composite record.

0-252-5
25-501-2
50-1003-2
100-1504-2
150+7-0

<tbody>
</tbody>
Click to expand...

So you're saying their record is not 28-32?
 


Interesting graphic FTF, thanks.

One key I take from that is that the *best* RPI from a BCS conference team (typically decent SOS and perhaps some unspoken or subconscious bias) to NOT make the tourney was Kentucky at 57 last year, followed by Boston College at 58 in 2011 and Miami at 60 in 2012. That is encouraging history, considering where we're at now and range of possible outcomes.
 


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