A Bubble Comparison: Baylor, Gophers, and Pitt

After last night, thought now would be a good time to take a glimpse into how the Gophers' resume stacks up with the two teams surrounding them in the RPI, #43 Baylor and #46 Pitt (yes, I'm aware the RPI is not the be-all and end-all). Doing this simply to show the similarities and differences between the three teams.

Please note that a few of these categories are ones I choose not to emphasize (bad losses, record in last 10 games, wins vs. auto qualifiers), but they help form my opinion of an at-large candidate, nonetheless. We'll start with Baylor.

Team: Baylor
Record: 16-9, 6-8 Big XII
RPI: 43
Road/Neutral Record: 6-5
Overall SOS: 11
Nonconference SOS: 47
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-8
Best 3 RPI Wins: vs. #10 Kentucky, vs. #26 Colorado, #39 Kansas State (total = 75)
Number of Bad Losses (101+ RPI): 1
Record in Last 10 Games: 5-5
Bonus Point Wins/vs. Automatic Qualifiers: 1 (#160 Southern U -- SWAC leader)

Team: GOPHERS
Record: 17-11, 7-9 Big Ten
RPI: 45
Road/Neutral Record: 3-8
Overall SOS: 6
Nonconference SOS: 43
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Best 3 RPI Wins: #5 Wisconsin, #19 Ohio State, #32 Iowa (total = 56)
Number of Bad Losses (101+ RPI): 2
Record in Last 10 Games: 4-6
Bonus Point Wins/vs. Automatic Qualifiers: 0

Team: Pitt
Record: 20-7, 8-6 ACC
RPI: 46
Road/Neutral Record: 7-3
Overall SOS: 61
Nonconference SOS: 221
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7
Best 3 RPI Wins: vs. #40 Stanford, @ #56 NC State, @ #68 Maryland (total = 164)
Number of Bad Losses (101+ RPI): 0
Record in Last 10 Games: 4-6
Bonus Point Wins/vs. Automatic Qualifiers: 0

Isn't there typically consideration given if a key player such as Hollins is out/injured during the schedule?

Blizzard said:

Isn't there typically consideration given if a key player such as Hollins is out/injured during the schedule?

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Yes, they do, but I'm skeptical how much emphasis the selection committee really puts on that. In the end, channeling my inner-most Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are.

I'd use Michigan State as the perfect example. If the selection committee truly considers/values key injuries when evaluating teams, Michigan State should be no worse than a #2 seed. When healthy, that's a top-8 team in the country (at absolute worst) if I've ever seen one. But if the selection committee doesn't put a lot of stock in injuries -- which I think is the way they have to go about it -- Sparty's more likely to end up being a #3 or maybe even a #4 seed. At this point Wisconsin certainly is more deserving of a #2 seed than MSU.

Interesting. To me Baylor and Minnesota are pretty equal and Pitt way behind. But in the Bracket project Pitt looks very comfortable as a 8 while Baylor and Minnesota are very much on the bubble.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

It is possible that the bracketmatrix people haven't factored in the Iowa win though.

Winnipegopher said:

Interesting. To me Baylor and Minnesota are pretty equal and Pitt way behind. But in the Bracket project Pitt looks very comfortable as a 8 while Baylor and Minnesota are very much on the bubble.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

It is possible that the bracketmatrix people haven't factored in the Iowa win though.

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I agree with that breakdown. In my opinion, Pitt easily is the worst (least deserving) of these three. Its road/neutral record is about the only thing I like.

Pitt is one of those teams everyone has just kind of assumed is "in" the tournament, but when you strip down their resume bare there are a couple things not to like. 1 top-50 win? A nonconference SOS in the 200s? If you end up on the bubble, having a 200+ nonconference SOS quite often is something that'll get a team left behind. Just ask Fran McCaffery and Seth Greenberg.

It's close but if it came down to Minnesota or Baylor to get the last spot as of today I wouold take Baylor. Baylor also has some more opportunites coming up with Texas, Iowa St and Kansas St remaining on their schedule.

Andre

Blizzard said:

Isn't there typically consideration given if a key player such as Hollins is out/injured during the schedule?

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IMO, this is will get either no or very little consideration. They were 1-2 without him (he missed the last 39.5 minutes vs Wisconsin) and are 3-4 since he came back. One of the losses that Andre missed was at home to a +100 RPI team.

Should the NCAA look at the lost to Syracuse any differently because Walker missed that game?

Every team has injury issues, I agree with SS by way of Parcells. You are what your record says you are.

I pretty much feel the committee takes them in RPI order. They appears to do it last year, then jumbled the seeding.
The more they preach that RPI isn't everything, the more it appears it is.


Some of the bracketmatrix links were updated after the game. (The Yahoo one was one for example that already had the Gophers win over IA and a #10 seed, most others, probably not).


The reason Pitt is in easily despite the resume is because none of you figured in the ACC bias.

Face The Facts said:

The reason Pitt is in easily despite the resume is because none of you figured in the ACC bias.

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Vitale must be on the committee.

Ope3 said:

IMO, this is will get either no or very little consideration. They were 1-2 without him (he missed the last 39.5 minutes vs Wisconsin) and are 3-4 since he came back. One of the losses that Andre missed was at home to a +100 RPI team.

Should the NCAA look at the lost to Syracuse any differently because Walker missed that game?

Every team has injury issues, I agree with SS by way of Parcells. You are what your record says you are.

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Are they going to put us in at 7-11 because Dre was hurt? No. Does it weigh in our favor when splitting hairs between 3 teams like this? It should. Yes, we lost to NW at home without Dre. And we almost certainly wouldn't have if he'd played. It's true, every team has injuries, but when it's your leading scorer it carries a bit more weight.