Bubblicious Tuesday: "It's Jake, from State Farm"

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SelectionSunday

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If you can stomach sitting through 10-20 showings of the "It's Jake, from State Farm" commerical on the BTN, tune in tonight to Gophers-Iowa. Good feeling this one is going to be a "keeper". Gophers win it in OT, with someone (Andre Hollins?) finding his inner-most Voshon Lenard (March 5, 1994, triple OT win over Jess Settles & Iowa).

Monday Results
#48 Oklahoma State 76, TCU 54 (if 6-9 Cowboys get to 8-10 in Big XII, they're in good shape)

Tuesday Bubblers
#55 Dayton @ #38 Saint Josephs, 6 p.m. (CBSSN)
#43 Kansas State @ Texas Tech, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Iowa @ #46 GOPHERS, 6 p.m. (BTN)
#50 Xavier @ #53 Saint John's, 6 p.m. (FS1)
#67 Clemson @ Wake Forest, 6 p.m.
#45 Missouri @ Georgia, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)
 




SS, say we go W, L, W, W, L in our next five games. What percent chance would you put us at to make the tourney?
 


jaymil said:
SS, say we go W, L, W, W, L in our next five games. What percent chance would you put us at to make the tourney?
Click to expand...

So that would be 9-11 (including BTT) with another RPI top-50 win (Iowa) and a win over probable #10 seed Northwestern/Purdue, both with RPI's in the 100s.

I'll go with 55%.

I'd bump that up to about 90% if we follow that with a win over (presumed) #2 seed MSU/Badgers in the quarterfinals.
 

SelectionSunday said:
So that would be 9-11 (including BTT) with another RPI top-50 win (Iowa) and a win over probable #10 seed Northwestern/Purdue, both with RPI's in the 100s.

I'll go with 55%.

I'd bump that up to about 90% if we follow that with a win over (presumed) #2 seed MSU/Badgers in the quarterfinals.
Click to expand...

Scary.
 

SelectionSunday said:
So that would be 9-11 (including BTT) with another RPI top-50 win (Iowa) and a win over probable #10 seed Northwestern/Purdue, both with RPI's in the 100s.

I'll go with 55%.

I'd bump that up to about 90% if we follow that with a win over (presumed) #2 seed MSU/Badgers in the quarterfinals.
Click to expand...

80%
 




jaymil said:
SS, say we go W, L, W, W, L in our next five games. What percent chance would you put us at to make the tourney?
Click to expand...

I don’t know half of what SS does for NCAA tourney projections, but this is my feeling as to the minimum needed to get in. Win 2 of the final 3 and one in the tournament.
 

SelectionSunday said:
So that would be 9-11 (including BTT) with another RPI top-50 win (Iowa) and a win over probable #10 seed Northwestern/Purdue, both with RPI's in the 100s.

I'll go with 55%.

I'd bump that up to about 90% if we follow that with a win over (presumed) #2 seed MSU/Badgers in the quarterfinals.
Click to expand...

I think if we win 10 total Big Ten games, including an Iowa win and a neutral MSU/Badger win, we are a lock
 

jaymil said:
SS, say we go W, L, W, W, L in our next five games. What percent chance would you put us at to make the tourney?
Click to expand...

My gut feeling is, if we go 2-1 and lose in the 1st round of the BTT, we have a 40% chance. If we win a BTT game, I think it goes to about 80%. If we win 2 games as SS suggests, 100%. I do think the Hollins injury will tip in our favor if we're right on the line. It would help if he would show he's healthy and drop 40 on Iowa tonight in a 20 point win. :cool:
 

fryguy22 said:
I think if we win 10 total Big Ten games, including an Iowa win and a neutral MSU/Badger win, we are a lock
Click to expand...

I'll buy that.

I leave the 10% chance of not making it (in that scenario) because there's always the Championship Week caveat. Some years there are hardly any bid-stealers, some years conference-tournament upsets are flyin' around left & right.

Would tend to be more leery of those upsets if my favorite team didn't even finish .500 in conference play. This year that could include teams like the Gophers, Baylor, Okahoma State, and Oregon, all possibilities to finish below .500 in their conference. I think a couple of those are going to sneak in, but I wouldn't bet on 3 or all 4 of 'em getting in.
 



howeda7 said:
My gut feeling is, if we go 2-1 and lose in the 1st round of the BTT, we have a 40% chance. If we win a BTT game, I think it goes to about 80%. If we win 2 games as SS suggests, 100%. I do think the Hollins injury will tip in our favor if we're right on the line. It would help if he would show he's healthy and drop 40 on Iowa tonight in a 20 point win. :cool:
Click to expand...
I feel pretty much the same way about our tourney chances in those scenarios and I believe and hope that the committee will take into account the Hollins injury more than some believe they will.
 


So did Charles Buggs find his inner Voshon Lenard?
 

per CBS:

Poppin' Bubbles: Minnesota gets big win, St. John's and Dayton don't

Winners

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers were the big bubble winners of the day. They dropped 95 points on Iowa in a marquee win, which was huge after losing two in a row and six of their last eight games. Moreover, a loss on Tuesday would have meant heading to Michigan in essentially a must-win game. Now, Minnesota has four top-50 wins – including victories over Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa. The Gophers still have work to do, though, meaning they likely need to split the final two games and then do some damage in the Big Ten tournament. Tuesday was a big step, though.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...nnesota-gets-big-win-st-johns-and-dayton-dont

Go Gophers!!
 

Would a win at Michigan essentially lock us in to the tournament? We'd then split with 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference and the only team in the top 5 we wouldn't have beat we took to OT on the road (MSU). I just find it hard to believe we'd be left out with that many quality wins, even with a loss to PSU and in the BTT.
 

MadtownGopher said:
Would a win at Michigan essentially lock us in to the tournament? We'd then split with 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference and the only team in the top 5 we wouldn't have beat we took to OT on the road (MSU). I just find it hard to believe we'd be left out with that many quality wins, even with a loss to PSU and in the BTT.
Click to expand...

I'd also be interested to see what SS thinks about an 8-10 finish with with a loss to Penn State.
 

BleedGopher said:
per CBS:

Poppin' Bubbles: Minnesota gets big win, St. John's and Dayton don't

Winners

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers were the big bubble winners of the day. They dropped 95 points on Iowa in a marquee win, which was huge after losing two in a row and six of their last eight games. Moreover, a loss on Tuesday would have meant heading to Michigan in essentially a must-win game. Now, Minnesota has four top-50 wins – including victories over Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa. The Gophers still have work to do, though, meaning they likely need to split the final two games and then do some damage in the Big Ten tournament. Tuesday was a big step, though.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...nnesota-gets-big-win-st-johns-and-dayton-dont

Go Gophers!!
Click to expand...

Jordan Sibert and the Dayton Flyers have taken a wrong turn since Maui. Doesn't bother me one bit.
 

MadtownGopher said:
Would a win at Michigan essentially lock us in to the tournament? We'd then split with 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference and the only team in the top 5 we wouldn't have beat we took to OT on the road (MSU). I just find it hard to believe we'd be left out with that many quality wins, even with a loss to PSU and in the BTT.
Click to expand...


Say we go 1-1.
Whether the win is over Michigan with a loss against Penn St
or
Win over Penn State and loss against Michigan, it's essentially the same RPI in the end.
Sure, there are differences for home vs road, but in the end it doesn't make much difference.

I think if they finish 8-10 Big Ten, they'll have an RPI around 45 going into the BTT. One more loss on the first game, and I think they could still be in.

The rest of the bubble stinks. You're looking at teams like Dayton, Providence, and St. John's fighting and our RPI is about 12-15 points better.

By the way, our RPI right now is 45.
On 2/7 it was 44.
 

Michigan goes back to bring an opportunity, Penn State a must win and the opening round of the BTT a make or break. That's the way I see it.
 

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