How the Gophers stay on the bubble with a 7-11 record

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Dano564

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Gophers current RPI is about 41.
If they finish 8-10 overall, they would have an RPI of 45 which traditionally is a pretty safe bet.

The Big Ten is ranked 2nd overall, just slightly behind the Big 12.

If the Gophers finish 7-11 overall with just two more wins prior to BTT, they would be near a 52 RPI.


But where does that put us if Indiana gets hot?

Good question, with Indiana a likely candidate to still finish strong and who currently has the next closest RPI, for them to get their RPI above 52, they would need to win 7 of their last 8 games and finish the conference at 11-7.

Not likely to happen, but at best it paints a strange picture of how much difference their is between their current chances for making the field.


Nebraska would also be in the conversation. Current RPI of 64.
They would need to finish the BTT with a 6-2 record to get to an RPI of 50.

So if what the selection committee preaches about conference records not mattering, the overall book of work is favorable to the Gophers unless they really drop by finishing 6-10 in conference.
 

Has there ever been precedent for a team finishing four games under 500 in conference and not winning their conference tournament but still getting a berth? I understand the "overall book of work" argument, but the Gophers didn't go through a murderer's row of non-conference opponents. Just feels like a stretch to me, even with their RPI?
 



golfing18now said:
Has there ever been precedent for a team finishing four games under 500 in conference and not winning their conference tournament but still getting a berth? I understand the "overall book of work" argument, but the Gophers didn't go through a murderer's row of non-conference opponents. Just feels like a stretch to me, even with their RPI?
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Not sure on the year, but I believe Florida State went in at 7-11 one year
 


If we go 2-5 the rest of the way, I am going to be pretty upset with Pitino and Co.
 



From the Barn said:
They won't get in at 7-11. No chance at all.
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"No chance" isn't true.


In 1998 Florida State made the NCAA with a 39 RPI (43 by the new system) with a 6-10 record in the ACC.
They went into the ACC Tournament and lost their first game. Overall ACC record was 6-11.

This was back when there were only 64 bids vs 68 today.

They had a 17-13 record overall and became the #12 seed.
Their SOS was #3 overall.
 




Gold Vision said:
I'm guessing Gophs will be vegas favorites in 2 maybe 3 of the next 7.
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I certainly expect us to take care of business at home against Illinois and PSU. I agree we won't be favored in any of the other 5 games, but there are enough winnable games in there that we should be able to pull at least one upset out of those 5.
 

depends on who we beat if we were to go 7-11. they beat iowa or michigan and it's going to be hard to say no with the quality wins we will have to hold us out, given we do something in the BTT but i vote we just go 7=0 down the stretch here and get in as a higher seed and just keep rolling
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I certainly expect us to take care of business at home against Illinois and PSU. I agree we won't be favored in any of the other 5 games, but there are enough winnable games in there that we should be able to pull at least one upset out of those 5.
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Gotta beat those two. However, I just feel that to have a shot you can't get beat twice by NW. I know they are better than they were, but we have to go out and beat them on the road to earn the NCAAs. Either that or pick up some upsets against top teams. I can see that 8-10 is a possible tournament berth but I am thinking we need to get to 9-9 somehow.
 



Assuming 8-10 in the Big Ten is a safe bet, 7-11 puts us on the outside. We need to win 3 of the final 7 games. You could start off with vs. Illinois and vs. Penn State. The third win will be where things get tough. @NW, @OSU, and vs. Iowa will be where we should look for the third win.
 

Face The Facts said:
"No chance" isn't true.


In 1998 Florida State made the NCAA with a 39 RPI (43 by the new system) with a 6-10 record in the ACC.
They went into the ACC Tournament and lost their first game. Overall ACC record was 6-11.

This was back when there were only 64 bids vs 68 today.

They had a 17-13 record overall and became the #12 seed.
Their SOS was #3 overall.
Click to expand...

That's nice and all, but it isn't 1998.
 

9 and 9

bga1 said:
Gotta beat those two. However, I just feel that to have a shot you can't get beat twice by NW. I know they are better than they were, but we have to go out and beat them on the road to earn the NCAAs. Either that or pick up some upsets against top teams. I can see that 8-10 is a possible tournament berth but I am thinking we need to get to 9-9 somehow.
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If Pitino goes 9 and 9 with this group he should win some coach of the year awards. Andre missed two very winnable games
due to injury and limped through a third loss. We don't have the talent to overcome that kind of adversity. I think that injury in those losses will be noted by the selection committee. 9 and 9 and we are in for sure, yes. I think 8 and 10 is pretty similar
under the circumstances. 7 and 11 we need to be healthy at season's end (imo) and then what other teams do and how we are playing are all factors to me. But with our rpi it's possible at 7-11.
 

7-11 would be highly unlikely but we could get in with a 3-1 Big Ten tourney.

Like usual, 9-9 is the target and should be an automatic entry.
 

8-10 will be in this year for the Gophers.
I'm 90% confident of that unless things elsewhere get really screwy on the bubble. Like, I don't even know what it would take.

Bottom line is if they only win 2 more, it doesn't matter much who it's over because the RPI will be almost identical. It would help the "top wins" part I suppose, but how else are you going to find the 36 bids?

You going to take an 8-10 or 9-9 Indiana team with a RPI over 65 instead of an RPI team of 50 in the same conference who beat the RPI 65 team head to head?
 

Say the Gophers win 2 more and finish 7-11 for an RPI around 52.
Right now here are the best two teams NOT IN, one of whom would have to take the Gophers spot.
LSU - RPI 62
Clemson - RPI 63


To get an RPI within a couple points of the Gophers, they would need to go:
LSU 5-3
Clemson 6-2

At that point, they have equal standing for a side-by-side "nitty gritty" review.

LSU - 20-10
Bad Losses: 109, 113, 139
Top 50 Wins: vs #:13,46 (and maybe add one more if they beat Kentucky or Florida in those 5 wins).
Wins 51-100: 79, 86 (could add #79 or #86 to the list)
SOS end of season of about 70

Clemson 21-9
Bad Losses: 158
Top 50 Wins: vs #: 10,...... that's it so far
Wins 51-100: 54, 84 (could add 59,68, 84)
SOS end of season of about 95


Gophers - 17-13
Bad Losses: 107
Top 50 Wins: 8, 16, 45
Wins 51-100: 54, 78 (could add #71 Illinois, #98 NW'ern if those were their two wins)
SOS end of season: 6


So even if we suck it up, and they play really well finishing strong...
who has the better full resume?
 

golfing18now said:
Has there ever been precedent for a team finishing four games under 500 in conference and not winning their conference tournament but still getting a berth? I understand the "overall book of work" argument, but the Gophers didn't go through a murderer's row of non-conference opponents. Just feels like a stretch to me, even with their RPI?
Click to expand...

There have been a few. Florida State did it at 6-10 once. That said, the only remote chance we'd have is if we made it to the B1G championship game, and even then it would be no sure thing. 8-10 = a shot on SS. 9-9 = safe.
 

bga1 said:
Gotta beat those two. However, I just feel that to have a shot you can't get beat twice by NW. I know they are better than they were, but we have to go out and beat them on the road to earn the NCAAs. Either that or pick up some upsets against top teams. I can see that 8-10 is a possible tournament berth but I am thinking we need to get to 9-9 somehow.
Click to expand...

Northwestern is the key game. We should take care of Ill and PSU. None of the other games are lost causes. NW get us to 8 wins and means we just have to go 1-3 in the 4 toughest games.
 

I will repeat what I said in an earlier thread:

At the beginning of the season, a majority of GH'ers, and the Local/National media, all claimed a down year. And yet here we are, mid season, complaining that we might not make the Dance.

I don't get you guys. As our success built, your expectations grew, and now some are finding things to complain about.

Go Gophers, take care of business, and go Pitino's Posse!!!
 

At 8-10 the Gophers will be in.

90% sure.

There just aren't enough good teams who compare favorably.
 

howeda7 said:
There have been a few. Florida State did it at 6-10 once. That said, the only remote chance we'd have is if we made it to the B1G championship game, and even then it would be no sure thing. 8-10 = a shot on SS. 9-9 = safe.
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You have no understanding of how teams are chosen for the NCAAs. At 8-10, we are in 90% of the scenarios regardless of how we do in the BTT. At 7-11, we need to win minimum of 2 BTT Games to be in the conversation IMO and 3 wins gets us in.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
You have no understanding of how teams are chosen for the NCAAs. At 8-10, we are in 90% of the scenarios regardless of how we do in the BTT. At 7-11, we need to win minimum of 2 BTT Games to be in the conversation IMO and 3 wins gets us in.
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I have plenty of understanding of it. But if you think we can win 3 more games over NW, Illinois and Penn State, lose all the others, lose in the 1st round of the BTT and still have a 90% chance of making it, your exuberance is irrational.
 

Dr.Don said:
I will repeat what I said in an earlier thread:

At the beginning of the season, a majority of GH'ers, and the Local/National media, all claimed a down year. And yet here we are, mid season, complaining that we might not make the Dance.

I don't get you guys. As our success built, your expectations grew, and now some are finding things to complain about.

Go Gophers, take care of business, and go Pitino's Posse!!!
Click to expand...

I like it when you repeat yourself Dr.Don Dr.Don.

I like it when you repeat yourself Dr.Don Dr.Don.
 

Potential bid-stealing conferences

It appears there will be a ton of bubble teams across the country rooting for. ...

Southern Miss (Conference USA);
Toledo (MAC);
Wichita State (Missouri Valley);
San Diego State/New Mexico (Mountain West); and/or
Gonzaga/BYU (WCC). ...

to win their conference tourneys, Wichita State first and foremost. Southern Miss and Toledo don't have particularly strong resumes (read: weak), but if they continue to dominate their conference brethren the Selection Committee won't be afraid to reward a regular-season champion or two with a strong RPI (see Middle Tennessee State last season). The bid-stealers are most likely to come from those conferences.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It appears there will be a ton of bubble teams across the country rooting for. ...

Southern Miss (Conference USA);
Toledo (MAC);
Wichita State (Missouri Valley);
San Diego State/New Mexico (Mountain West); and/or
Gonzaga/BYU (WCC)

to win their conference tourneys, Wichita State first and foremost. Southern Miss and Toledo don't have particularly strong resumes (read: weak), but if they continue to dominate their conference brethren the Selection Committee won't be afraid to reward a regular-season champion or two with a strong RPI (see Middle Tennessee last season). Any bid-stealers are most likely to come from those conferences.
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Exactly. People forget that there are always some unexpected conference tourney winners that knock some other team out of the tourney. So sitting as one of the last 2 or 3 teams in right now means that, if everything else held, you'd probably be out on Selection Sunday.

Also doesn't help that Richmond and FSU look to be trending downward (Richmond seems unlikely to do anything with their best player Lindsay out for the rest of the year). FSU has some bad losses lately, lost at home to a terrible Miami team yesterday. Syracuse isn't going to stay #1 forever, either, has some tough road games coming up.
 

WanderingGopher said:
. ... Also doesn't help that Richmond and FSU look to be trending downward (Richmond seems unlikely to do anything with their best player Lindsay out for the rest of the year).
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I've given up on FSU, they look awful lately. I'm afraid the Noles' season is well on its way down the shi**er.

Still holding out hope for Richmond to stay in the top 50. Won't be easy without their best player, but the remaining schedule is manageable, with 2 of their 3 most important games (GW and VCU) at home. The final game of the season @ Dayton could be a big one, too.
 

Last year the Gophers made it to the Dance with a bit of a let down season winning just 8 Big Ten games. This years team has been a surpise to most and had gotten national respect for being one of the under the radar teams. If this team gets to 8 wins in the regular season I think they make the NCAA Tournament. If they win one Big Ten Tourny game it will only help their seeding. Throw in the the losses we had with Andre Hollins being injured and playing hurt against Purdue will be taken into consideration especially with one being a loss in 3OT's and the other by 1 point. This team has done a great job with so many questions coming into the year. I think this team is going to be in good shape over the final portion of the regular season by taking care of buisness. One more good win will go a long way in helping this team. Knock off Iowa, Michigan, OSU, or Wisconsin would be a huge deal especially if the team takes care of games against Penn State, Illinois, and Northwestern.
 

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