Road to Selection Sunday: Take A Deep Breath, Gophers Can Still Right The Ship

Road to Selection Sunday: Take A Deep Breath, Gophers Can Still Right The Ship
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/346573?referrer_id=388419

EXHALE, MINN. -- Now is a good time to take a deep breath Gopher fans, myself most definitely included. After last night's excruciating loss to Purdue in West Lafayette, it's ever so slowly becoming apparent the Big Ten's most likely bubble teams come Selection Sunday will be the Gophers, Indiana, and, yes, Northwestern (peek at NU's remaining schedule; it sets up nicely to get to 10 or 11 conference wins). After a quick look at the Big Ten in the RPI and how RTSS currently has the NCAA hopefuls projected, we'll follow with a snapshot of how the Gopher, Hoosier, and Wildcat resumes stack up on paper through games played Feb. 5.

Big Ten in the RPI
9. Michigan State (NCAA #2 seed)
12. Wisconsin (NCAA #6 seed)
15. Michigan (NCAA #3 seed)
17. Ohio State (NCAA #7 seed)
30. Iowa (NCAA #6 seed)
44. GOPHERS (on the bubble, NCAA #10 seed)
70. Indiana (on the bubble but out)
75. Nebraska
76. Illinois
87. Northwestern (not yet on the bubble, but approaching the conversation)
102. Purdue
104. Penn State

Gophers
RPI: 44
Record: 14-8, 4-6
Overall SOS: 7
Nonconference SOS: 43
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-7
Best 3 RPI Wins (all at home): Wisconsin (12), Ohio State (17), Florida State (40)
Projected Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan (March 1)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Iowa (Feb. 25)
Record vs. Indiana/Northwestern: 0-1 (still to play Indiana, @ Northwestern)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 9

Indiana
RPI: 70
Record: 14-8, 4-5
Overall SOS: 55
Nonconference SOS: 162
Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-7
Best 3 RPI Wins (all at home): Wisconsin (12), Michigan (15), Illinois (76)
Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan (March 8)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Ohio State (March 2)
Record vs. Gophers/Northwestern: 0-1 (still to play @ Gophers, @ Northwestern)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 10

Northwestern
RPI: 87
Record: 12-11, 5-5
Overall SOS: 37
Nonconference SOS: 197
Road/Neutral Record: 4-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-8
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-9
Best 3 RPI Wins (all on the road): @ Wisconsin (12), @ Gophers (44), @ Indiana (70)
Best Quality Win Opportunity Remaining: @ Michigan State (Feb. 13)
Most Significant Home Game Remaining: Gophers (Feb. 16)
Record vs. Gophers/Indiana: 2-0 (still to play Minnesota, Indiana)
RTSS Projection of Big Ten Wins Needed for Stress-Free Big Ten Tournament: 11

If there's no such thing as a "must win" other than a one-and-done tournament format, then Saturday's Gophers-Hoosiers game is about as close as a game can get. Expect both teams to play with great energy, and even greater desperation. That combo along with a raucous late-night crowd usually leads to entertaining basketball theater. Both teams really, really need this one if they have legitimate designs on a NCAA tourney bid. Stating the obvious here, but the Gophers must protect their home court, at least until they figure out a way to win on the road.

No question they can recover; they just need to regain some form and win the close games.

I tend to feel that the objective is not really to make the Tournament. The idea is to play well enough and be good enough over the course of the season that you're eligible for it. If you do play that well and are that good, it also means you're good enough to advance in the Tournament, which is the whole idea. I think Pitino has a point when he tells the players to stop fretting about whether they'll make the Field. Instead, just play ball, and their postseason fate will take care of itself. For the fans, it's the same thing. We worry ourselves into illness about whether the team will be invited to the Dance. I've pretty much decided that that takes away from my enjoyment of the season and the games.

Bad Gopher said:

. ... We worry ourselves into illness about whether the team will be invited to the Dance. I've pretty much decided that that takes away from my enjoyment of the season and the games.

Click to expand...

That's the strange thing. In a warped sort of way, the Gophers struggling to make the tournament every season has become part of my enjoyment. What would I do with myself if the Gophers weren't struggling to avoid the bubble! I'm still able to enjoy the journey.

SelectionSunday said:

That's the strange thing. In a warped sort of way, the Gophers struggling to make the tournament every season has become part of my enjoyment. What would I do with myself if the Gophers weren't struggling to avoid the bubble! I'm still able to enjoy the journey.

Click to expand...

I chuckled when I read this, mostly because it's become a tradition for me, too. We're so used to being focused on the minimum to sneak in, it would almost feel weird if it were any other way.

This year I'm trying not to sweat it too much. It seems, though, like the players are, and I don't doubt that's been part of their problem lately.

Bad Gopher said:

I chuckled when I read this, mostly because it's become a tradition for me, too. We're so used to being focused on the minimum to sneak in, it would almost feel weird if it were any other way.

This year I'm trying not to sweat it too much. It seems, though, like the players are, and I don't doubt that's been part of their problem lately.

Click to expand...

Looks like we belong to the same club.

station19 said:

Looks like we belong to the same club.

Click to expand...

And the club meets at Mabel Murphy's in Fergus Falls for Selection Sunday, and Selection Sunday is invited to join us.

Dr.Don said:

And the club meets at Mabel Murphy's in Fergus Falls for Selection Sunday, and Selection Sunday is invited to join us.

Click to expand...

Make sure you send in your membership application...........then wait for a phone call.

I agree it would be really nice for once to worry about winning the B1G or getting a top-4 seed, instead of simply making the tourney. I think we were on our way this year until Andre got hurt. My question now is, does 8-10 put us in position to likely be in the field? I now think "yes."

1. If we finish 8-10, it is very likely that we will be sixth in the B1G pecking order for an NCAA berth (behind MSU, Mich, Iowa, Wiscy and OSU). Yes, it's possible that an Indiana or Purdue or NW or NE could sneak in front of us in the conf standings by a game, but given their poor non-conf records that's not going to be enough to put their RPI in front of us, probably not even get within 5-10 of our RPI. You have to think that the best conference in college BB is getting 6 of their 12 teams in.

2. Looking at our schedule, we still have 3 of 7 remaining games against RPI top 25 teams, and OSU might be close to being a fourth. So even if we go 3-4 in the remaining seven, it's hard to see our RPI dropping below the 40-45 range.

If we go 8-10, I think we're in at that point but the first B1G tourney game will be huge, and could knock us out.


I'll be interested to see SS's next analysis.

WanderingGopher said:

I agree it would be really nice for once to worry about winning the B1G or getting a top-4 seed, instead of simply making the tourney. I think we were on our way this year until Andre got hurt. My question now is, does 8-10 put us in position to likely be in the field? I now think "yes."

1. If we finish 8-10, it is very likely that we will be sixth in the B1G pecking order for an NCAA berth (behind MSU, Mich, Iowa, Wiscy and OSU). Yes, it's possible that an Indiana or Purdue or NW or NE could sneak in front of us in the conf standings by a game, but given their poor non-conf records that's not going to be enough to put their RPI in front of us, probably not even get within 5-10 of our RPI. You have to think that the best conference in college BB is getting 6 of their 12 teams in.

2. Looking at our schedule, we still have 3 of 7 remaining games against RPI top 25 teams, and OSU might be close to being a fourth. So even if we go 3-4 in the remaining seven, it's hard to see our RPI dropping below the 40-45 range.

If we go 8-10, I think we're in at that point but the first B1G tourney game will be huge, and could knock us out.


I'll be interested to see SS's next analysis.

Click to expand...

That's a very good summation. No need to add anything to that, other than I'd say the conference the Gophers play in won't have anything to do whether they get in. When it comes to at-large selections, every team is an independent.

SelectionSunday said:

That's a very good summation. No need to add anything to that, other than I'd say the conference the Gophers play in won't have anything to do whether they get in. When it comes to at-large selections, every team is an independent.

Click to expand...

While your statement is factually accurate it isn't statistically true. The conference you play is significantly important when it comes to SOS, RPI, Top 100, 50 & 25 wins and bad losses. Teams in lesser conferences have far fewer opportunities for big wins and far more opportunities for bad losses than the Gophers do playing over half their games in the B1G and having 9 conference home games.

GopherinPhilly said:

. ... The conference you play is significantly important when it comes to SOS, RPI, Top 100, 50 & 25 wins and bad losses. Teams in lesser conferences have far fewer opportunities for big wins and far more opportunities for bad losses than the Gophers do playing over half their games in the B1G and having 9 conference home games.

Click to expand...

No argument here. Still looked at by the committee as an individual entity, though, stacked up vs. other individual entities, with diverse, not apples-to-apples resumes.