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Road to Selection Sunday: Clock Is Ticking For Likely Bubble Teams
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/341064?referrer_id=388419
BUBBLETOWN, U.S. -- As we inch our way toward February, the 2014 NCAA Tournament bubble remains expansive but is starting to take shape. True, it's not until about the second week of February when "bubble talk" truly starts to become relevant, but we've reached the point of the season where the pressure starts to mount, the games get bigger, and the knuckles get whiter.
Teams simply trying to get noticed by the Selection Committee understand that the clock is ticking (that means you Indiana, La Salle, LSU, and Richmond, among many others). The time to rip off resume-building wins starts right about now. The Gophers (13-5, 3-3 Big Ten) recorded one such win last Thursday over Ohio State, one that, for now, has them on the correct side of the tourney bubble. Other "former" bubble teams made headway last week, as well. Surging Texas knocked off Iowa State, while Xavier -- a team that placed 8th in the 8-team Battle 4 Atlantis -- blitzed Georgetown with a game-ending 16-0 run to solidify its spot in the bracket.
At this writing, only 55 days from Selection Sunday, RTSS is somewhat comfortable filling 63 of the 68 tournament spots. The Gophers, despite their Sunday loss in Iowa City, hold one of those 63. Thirty-two of those are automatic qualifiers, the other 31 at-larges. That leaves five at-large bids available, for which there are 17 teams on my radar: Arizona State; Arkansas; Boise State; BYU; Clemson; Dayton; Georgetown; Illinois; Indiana State; Ole Miss; Providence; Purdue; Saint Mary's; SMU; Southern Miss; Stanford; and Tennessee.
Here's a thumbnail look at each of the 17 teams. We'll include their RPI, record vs. DI opponents, overall strength of schedule, road/neutral record, records vs. the RPI top 50 and 100, and their best RPI win to date. Bubble teams are listed in order by RPI. In addition, for comparative purposes I'll include the Gophers' numbers.
17 for 5
#39. Southern Miss (14-3): 133 SOS, 8-3 road/neutral, 1-1 vs. top 50, 4-1 vs. top 100, best win @ #49 NDSU
#40 BYU (12-7): 15 SOS, 5-6 R/N, 1-4 top 50, 3-4 top 100, vs. #44 Texas
#45. SMU (14-4): 101 SOS, 5-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, #28 UConn
#48. Providence (13-5): 49 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #15 Creighton
#50. Dayton (13-5): 62 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 2-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, vs. #23 Gonzaga
#51. Saint Mary's (13-5): 63 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-1 top 50, 5-1 top 100, #49 NDSU
#52. Indiana State (12-4): 132 SOS, 6-4 R/N, 0-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, #75 Belmont
#53. Boise State (11-5): 52 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, #94 Utah State
#54 Stanford (12-5): 48 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 3-5 top 100, @ #27 Oregon
#57 Georgetown (11-6): 43 SOS, 3-5 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 5-4 top 100, vs. #34 Kansas State
#58 Illinois (13-6): 54 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, vs. #55 Missouri
#59 Tennessee (10-6): 26 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 2-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, vs. #24 Xavier
#60. Arizona State (13-5): 98 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, @ #86 DePaul
#67 Arkansas (12-5): 82 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 3-3 top 50, 4-3 top 100, #13 Kentucky
#68 Ole Miss (12-5): 95 SOS, 5-2 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-4 top 100, #64 LSU
#79 Clemson (13-4): 178 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 1-2 top 50, 2-3 top 100, #18 Duke
#88 Purdue (13-5): 139 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #43 Eastern Michigan
#35 GOPHERS (13-5): 17 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 4-5 top 100, #11 Ohio State
Now that we're past the halfway point of the season, it's time to cobble together a few mid-season lists.
A Dozen Coaches Under Duress
Ken Bone (Washington State) -- Wazzu hasn't recovered since Tony Bennett left Pullman.
Ben Braun (Rice) -- Success at Eastern Michigan & Cal seems like a century ago.
Jeff Bzdelik (Wake Forest) -- Soft non-conference schedule didn't fool anyone.
Anthony Grant (Alabama) -- Once considered a home run hire, he's been more like a Texas League single.
Brothers Bill & Tom Herrion (New Hampshire/Marshall) -- Bill's seat likely hotter than Tom's.
Pat Knight (Lamar) -- A bust at Texas Tech, ditto here. Remember when he called his seniors losers?
Steve Lavin (Saint John's) -- Rooting for Lav, a good dude, but Johnnies shouldn't be winless in Big East.
Mark Montgomery (Northern Illinois) -- Izzo disciple's Huskies simply can't score.
Louis Orr (Bowling Green) -- Got a raw deal at Seton Hall, but it's not getting done @ BGSU.
Craig Robinson (Oregon State) -- Win over rival Oregon last night won't hurt his cause.
Ted Woodward (Maine) -- Worst D-I coach in America. Hasn't won conference tourney game since 2005.
A Dozen Coaches Earning Their Paychecks
Rick Barnes (Texas) -- Nice bounce-back season in progress for retooled Longhorns.
John Beilein (Michigan) -- No Mitch McGary, no problem.
Jim Crews (Saint Louis) -- Following the late and charismatic Rick Majerus is no easy task.
Bob Hoffman (Mercer) -- Bears poised to break through, but Florida Gulf Coast likely stands in the way.
Tony Jasick (Fort Wayne) -- IPFW surprisingly sits near the top of Summit League standings.
Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo) -- Off APR probation, the UMD grad has Rockets rolling.
Larry Krystkowiak (Utah) -- Utes now a tough out at the Huntsman Center.
Lon Kruger (Oklahoma) -- Sooners lost a lot from last year's NCAA team, but Kruger just keeps on winning.
Jim Larranaga (Miami-Florida) -- For my money one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country.
Kyle Smith (Columbia) -- Gave Sparty a scare in East Lansing, may do the same to Harvard in the Ivy League.
Bruce Weber (Kansas State) -- Illinois tenure ended badly, but this guy hasn't forgotten how to coach.
Mike White (Louisiana Tech) -- NIT last season out of WAC, NCAA in reach this season from Conference USA.
1st Team All Big Team (5 best players)
Keith Appling (Michigan State)
Yogi Ferrell (Indiana)
Gary Harris (Michigan State)
Devyn Marble (Iowa)
Nik Stauskas (Michigan)
1st Team All Big Ten (by position)
PG -- Appling
SG -- Harris
SF -- Stauskas
PF -- Aaron White (Iowa)
C- Elliott Eliason (Gophers)
A couple notes. Stauskas is more of a SG and White is more of a SF, but they're versatile enough where I feel comfortable slotting them slightly out of their natural position. Had a difficult time with two things: (1) Adreian Payne (Michigan State) clearly would be on one or both of these lists, but I can't take a guy who's missed so much time because of injury. (2) Seems like Wisconsin should have someone, but the Badgers are so balanced that no one stands out enough to be placed in the top five.
Big Ten Player of the Year
Appling
Big Ten Newcomer of the Year
Noah Vonleh (Indiana)
Big Ten Coach of the Year
Beilein
Big Ten Tournament Bracket
We're 1/3 of the way through the Big Ten schedule. I think ample time has passed to take our first look at what the Big Ten bracket would look like if the tournament were held today. The Gophers hold the #6 spot. All things considered, who they've played, where they've played, etc., that's not bad for starters. There's an opening to improve that number before we hit the halfway point, with their next three games against Wisconsin (home), @ Nebraska, and Northwestern (home).
First Round (Thursday, March 13)
11 a.m. CST -- #8 Ohio State (2-3) vs. #9 Northwestern (2-4), BTN
1:25 p.m. -- #5 Purdue (3-2) vs. #12 Penn State (0-6), BTN
5:30 p.m. -- #7 Indiana (2-3) vs. #10 Illinois (2-4), ESPN2
7:55 p.m. -- #6 GOPHERS vs. #11 Nebraska (0-4), ESPN2
Quarterfinals (Friday, March 14)
11 a.m. -- #1 Michigan State (6-0) vs. Ohio State/Northwestern winner, ESPN/ESPN2
1:25 p.m. -- #4 Wisconsin (3-2) vs. Purdue/Penn State winner, ESPN/ESPN2
5:30 p.m. -- #2 Michigan (5-0) vs. Indiana/Illinois winner, BTN
7:55 p.m. -- #3 Iowa vs. GOPHERS/Nebraska winner, BTN
Bring on the Red Menace.
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/341064?referrer_id=388419
BUBBLETOWN, U.S. -- As we inch our way toward February, the 2014 NCAA Tournament bubble remains expansive but is starting to take shape. True, it's not until about the second week of February when "bubble talk" truly starts to become relevant, but we've reached the point of the season where the pressure starts to mount, the games get bigger, and the knuckles get whiter.
Teams simply trying to get noticed by the Selection Committee understand that the clock is ticking (that means you Indiana, La Salle, LSU, and Richmond, among many others). The time to rip off resume-building wins starts right about now. The Gophers (13-5, 3-3 Big Ten) recorded one such win last Thursday over Ohio State, one that, for now, has them on the correct side of the tourney bubble. Other "former" bubble teams made headway last week, as well. Surging Texas knocked off Iowa State, while Xavier -- a team that placed 8th in the 8-team Battle 4 Atlantis -- blitzed Georgetown with a game-ending 16-0 run to solidify its spot in the bracket.
At this writing, only 55 days from Selection Sunday, RTSS is somewhat comfortable filling 63 of the 68 tournament spots. The Gophers, despite their Sunday loss in Iowa City, hold one of those 63. Thirty-two of those are automatic qualifiers, the other 31 at-larges. That leaves five at-large bids available, for which there are 17 teams on my radar: Arizona State; Arkansas; Boise State; BYU; Clemson; Dayton; Georgetown; Illinois; Indiana State; Ole Miss; Providence; Purdue; Saint Mary's; SMU; Southern Miss; Stanford; and Tennessee.
Here's a thumbnail look at each of the 17 teams. We'll include their RPI, record vs. DI opponents, overall strength of schedule, road/neutral record, records vs. the RPI top 50 and 100, and their best RPI win to date. Bubble teams are listed in order by RPI. In addition, for comparative purposes I'll include the Gophers' numbers.
17 for 5
#39. Southern Miss (14-3): 133 SOS, 8-3 road/neutral, 1-1 vs. top 50, 4-1 vs. top 100, best win @ #49 NDSU
#40 BYU (12-7): 15 SOS, 5-6 R/N, 1-4 top 50, 3-4 top 100, vs. #44 Texas
#45. SMU (14-4): 101 SOS, 5-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, #28 UConn
#48. Providence (13-5): 49 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #15 Creighton
#50. Dayton (13-5): 62 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 2-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, vs. #23 Gonzaga
#51. Saint Mary's (13-5): 63 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-1 top 50, 5-1 top 100, #49 NDSU
#52. Indiana State (12-4): 132 SOS, 6-4 R/N, 0-2 top 50, 3-3 top 100, #75 Belmont
#53. Boise State (11-5): 52 SOS, 5-3 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, #94 Utah State
#54 Stanford (12-5): 48 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 3-5 top 100, @ #27 Oregon
#57 Georgetown (11-6): 43 SOS, 3-5 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 5-4 top 100, vs. #34 Kansas State
#58 Illinois (13-6): 54 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 2-4 top 100, vs. #55 Missouri
#59 Tennessee (10-6): 26 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 2-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, vs. #24 Xavier
#60. Arizona State (13-5): 98 SOS, 4-4 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-5 top 100, @ #86 DePaul
#67 Arkansas (12-5): 82 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 3-3 top 50, 4-3 top 100, #13 Kentucky
#68 Ole Miss (12-5): 95 SOS, 5-2 R/N, 0-3 top 50, 1-4 top 100, #64 LSU
#79 Clemson (13-4): 178 SOS, 4-3 R/N, 1-2 top 50, 2-3 top 100, #18 Duke
#88 Purdue (13-5): 139 SOS, 3-4 R/N, 1-3 top 50, 4-4 top 100, #43 Eastern Michigan
#35 GOPHERS (13-5): 17 SOS, 2-4 R/N, 2-4 top 50, 4-5 top 100, #11 Ohio State
Now that we're past the halfway point of the season, it's time to cobble together a few mid-season lists.
A Dozen Coaches Under Duress
Ken Bone (Washington State) -- Wazzu hasn't recovered since Tony Bennett left Pullman.
Ben Braun (Rice) -- Success at Eastern Michigan & Cal seems like a century ago.
Jeff Bzdelik (Wake Forest) -- Soft non-conference schedule didn't fool anyone.
Anthony Grant (Alabama) -- Once considered a home run hire, he's been more like a Texas League single.
Brothers Bill & Tom Herrion (New Hampshire/Marshall) -- Bill's seat likely hotter than Tom's.
Pat Knight (Lamar) -- A bust at Texas Tech, ditto here. Remember when he called his seniors losers?
Steve Lavin (Saint John's) -- Rooting for Lav, a good dude, but Johnnies shouldn't be winless in Big East.
Mark Montgomery (Northern Illinois) -- Izzo disciple's Huskies simply can't score.
Louis Orr (Bowling Green) -- Got a raw deal at Seton Hall, but it's not getting done @ BGSU.
Craig Robinson (Oregon State) -- Win over rival Oregon last night won't hurt his cause.
Ted Woodward (Maine) -- Worst D-I coach in America. Hasn't won conference tourney game since 2005.
A Dozen Coaches Earning Their Paychecks
Rick Barnes (Texas) -- Nice bounce-back season in progress for retooled Longhorns.
John Beilein (Michigan) -- No Mitch McGary, no problem.
Jim Crews (Saint Louis) -- Following the late and charismatic Rick Majerus is no easy task.
Bob Hoffman (Mercer) -- Bears poised to break through, but Florida Gulf Coast likely stands in the way.
Tony Jasick (Fort Wayne) -- IPFW surprisingly sits near the top of Summit League standings.
Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo) -- Off APR probation, the UMD grad has Rockets rolling.
Larry Krystkowiak (Utah) -- Utes now a tough out at the Huntsman Center.
Lon Kruger (Oklahoma) -- Sooners lost a lot from last year's NCAA team, but Kruger just keeps on winning.
Jim Larranaga (Miami-Florida) -- For my money one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country.
Kyle Smith (Columbia) -- Gave Sparty a scare in East Lansing, may do the same to Harvard in the Ivy League.
Bruce Weber (Kansas State) -- Illinois tenure ended badly, but this guy hasn't forgotten how to coach.
Mike White (Louisiana Tech) -- NIT last season out of WAC, NCAA in reach this season from Conference USA.
1st Team All Big Team (5 best players)
Keith Appling (Michigan State)
Yogi Ferrell (Indiana)
Gary Harris (Michigan State)
Devyn Marble (Iowa)
Nik Stauskas (Michigan)
1st Team All Big Ten (by position)
PG -- Appling
SG -- Harris
SF -- Stauskas
PF -- Aaron White (Iowa)
C- Elliott Eliason (Gophers)
A couple notes. Stauskas is more of a SG and White is more of a SF, but they're versatile enough where I feel comfortable slotting them slightly out of their natural position. Had a difficult time with two things: (1) Adreian Payne (Michigan State) clearly would be on one or both of these lists, but I can't take a guy who's missed so much time because of injury. (2) Seems like Wisconsin should have someone, but the Badgers are so balanced that no one stands out enough to be placed in the top five.
Big Ten Player of the Year
Appling
Big Ten Newcomer of the Year
Noah Vonleh (Indiana)
Big Ten Coach of the Year
Beilein
Big Ten Tournament Bracket
We're 1/3 of the way through the Big Ten schedule. I think ample time has passed to take our first look at what the Big Ten bracket would look like if the tournament were held today. The Gophers hold the #6 spot. All things considered, who they've played, where they've played, etc., that's not bad for starters. There's an opening to improve that number before we hit the halfway point, with their next three games against Wisconsin (home), @ Nebraska, and Northwestern (home).
First Round (Thursday, March 13)
11 a.m. CST -- #8 Ohio State (2-3) vs. #9 Northwestern (2-4), BTN
1:25 p.m. -- #5 Purdue (3-2) vs. #12 Penn State (0-6), BTN
5:30 p.m. -- #7 Indiana (2-3) vs. #10 Illinois (2-4), ESPN2
7:55 p.m. -- #6 GOPHERS vs. #11 Nebraska (0-4), ESPN2
Quarterfinals (Friday, March 14)
11 a.m. -- #1 Michigan State (6-0) vs. Ohio State/Northwestern winner, ESPN/ESPN2
1:25 p.m. -- #4 Wisconsin (3-2) vs. Purdue/Penn State winner, ESPN/ESPN2
5:30 p.m. -- #2 Michigan (5-0) vs. Indiana/Illinois winner, BTN
7:55 p.m. -- #3 Iowa vs. GOPHERS/Nebraska winner, BTN
Bring on the Red Menace.
