IT'S BACK!!! Road to Selection Sunday: October Means 1st Tournament Projection!!

IT'S BACK!!! Road to Selection Sunday: October Means 1st Tournament Projection!!
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/294977?referrer_id=388419

DINKYTOWN, Minn. -- October's arrival means the college basketball season is sneaking a peek around the corner, and that is always a good thing. With that comes the return of Road to Selection Sunday, Gopher Hole's semi-regular odds-and-ends, bits-and-pieces kind a' college basketball column. Sometimes you'll get stats, sometimes you'll get opinions, and sometimes it may just be long-winded gibberish, but one thing we do hope is that it'll always be informative.

To that end, let's kick off the 2013-14 hoops campaign with one of our staples, the preseason NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Projection. With a twinge of sadness, I can't bring myself to project the 2013-14 Minnesota Golden Gophers into the tournament field, though it's certainly not to be dismissed as a possibility when you boast an experienced and talented backcourt tandem of Hollins (Austin and Andre) x 2.

What it comes down to is this: I just can't see the Gophers' frontcourt holding up sufficiently throughout the course of an entire Big Ten season, specifically at the PF position. I'm of the belief that "Aw-crap-I'm-still-at-FIU" Rakeem Buckles wouldn't have been a world-beater, but if playing at Williams Arena and anywhere near 100%, I think he would have been a key enough cog to catapult the Gophers over the hump and back into the NCAA tourney. But that's a moot point, let's move forward.

Last year RTSS' preseason projection accurately pegged 43 of the 68 NCAA qualifiers (63.2%), an improvement of three from 2011-12. Of those 43, 16 were automatic qualifiers: Miami (ACC); Saint Louis (Atlantic 10); Louisville (Big East); Montana (Big Sky); Ohio State (Big Ten); Kansas (Big XII); Memphis (Conference USA); Iona (Metro Atlantic); Creighton (Missouri Valley); New Mexico (Mountain West); Long Island (Northeast); Bucknell (Patriot); Ole Miss (SEC); Davidson (Southern); South Dakota State (Summit); and Gonzaga (West Coast).

PRESEASON FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (10/1/13)
America East (1): Stony Brook

American (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis

ACC (6): Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10 (3): La Salle, Massachusetts, VCU

Big East (5): Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, Saint John's, Villanova

Big Sky (1): North Dakota

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big XII (4): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State

Big West (1): Cal Poly

Colonial (1): Towson

Conference USA (1): Southern Miss

Horizon (1): Green Bay

Ivy (1): Harvard

Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan

MAC (1): Toledo

MEAC (1): Morgan State

Missouri Valley (2): Indiana State, Wichita State

Mountain West (3): Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State

Northeast (1): Bryant

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot (1): Lafayette

SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee

Southern (1): Elon

Southland (1): Northwestern State

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

Summit (1): North Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky

West Coast (2): BYU, Gonzaga

WAC (1): New Mexico State
_____________________________
Last 4 In (Dayton-Bound): Arizona State, Indiana State, Massachusetts, Purdue

First 4 Out: Denver, Illinois, Middle Tennessee State, Pitt

Others Considered (12): Alabama, Boston College, Cal, Louisiana Tech, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Ole Miss, Richmond, Saint Louis, UNLV, Washington, Xavier

You Might Have Noticed
We have one new conference for the 2013-14 season, the American Athletic (let's just call it the American), which means there will be 32 automatic qualifiers for the 2014 NCAA Tournament and one less at-large bid. Coaches most certainly will whine about that throughout the season (expect to hear louder complaints about the need to expand the NCAA field), especially immediately after Selection Sunday, but that's for another day.

For the here and now, let's get up to speed on each of the 32 conferences. ... who's new, who's departed, and something to keep an eye on in 2013-14.

America East
New: UMass-Lowell
Gone: Boston U
Something To Note: I found this stat amazing last year, and it still applies today. Maine coach Ted Woodward has not won a conference tournament game since 2005. That's 8 consecutive years of one and done. Somehow, he's still employed.

American
New: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, South Florida, SMU, Temple
Something To Note: For my money SMU is the most interesting story coming out of the new "AAC'. With the pending arrival of hot-shot recruit Emmanuel Mudiay in 2014, the Mustangs are gathering momentum. Can it continue on the court in what should be a competitive conference?

ACC
New: Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse
Something To Note: ACC vs. Big Ten. More so than any other season, I'll be watching those two conferences go head to head for bragging rights as the best conference in 2013-14, and I'm not necessarily referring to their annual challenge. Mostly I'm talking about how the Big 2 perform in "primo" regular-season matchups and vs. one another during March Madness. The likes of Duke, (future B1G member) Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, et al, vs. the likes of Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc. Let's get it on.

Atlantic Sun
Something To Note: Let's see how Florida Gulf Coast and new head coach Joe Dooley handle being the hunted. After advancing to the Sweet 16 in highlight-reel fashion and returning most of its key players, FGCU might as well be Bullseye, Target's cute doggie mascot. The high-flying Eagles will have one resting squarely on their backs.

Atlantic 10
New: George Mason
Gone: Butler, Charlotte, Temple, Xavier
Something To Note: The league took a serious hit losing Butler, Temple, and Xavier, though in fairness all three programs appear headed for down seasons in their new conferences. Expect La Salle and especially VCU to step in and capitalize. Long haul, I'm not convinced Saint Louis' success will continue under Jim Crews.

Big East
New: Butler, Creighton, Xavier
Gone: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse
Something To Note: Though it won't be the brutally tough Big East we've come to know and love, this still will be a quality league. How will Butler, Creighton, and X -- all quality programs -- handle the upgrade in physical talent they'll now face night-in and night-out?

Big Sky
Something To Note: Is it possible the 2014 NCAA tourney will include two teams from the state of North Dakota? That's what RTSS' crystal ball says. If that were to occur, in the name of state pride would Bison fans cheer for the Fighting Sioux, and vice versa? Don't think so.

Big South
Something To Note: Other than Syracuse, Coastal Carolina is the only Gopher nonconference opponent I'm projecting to make the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten
Something To Note: It's a broken record, but I'll say it again. The conference has not won the Big Enchilada since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000. As strong as the B1G is right now basketball-wise, that monkey is getting bigger and bigger with each passing season. Depth is great, and is the sign of a truly strong conference, but at some point ya' gotta' take the crown.

Big XII
Something To Note: I know Scott Drew has his detractors, some of it well deserved, but I think his Baylor squad is going to rebound in a big way after last season's disappointing season ended with a NIT championship. No, don't be silly, Kansas will win and/or share its 10th consecutive Big XII title, but I fully expect Drew's Bears to be a factor in March, maybe even more so than talented Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State.

Big West
Gone: Pacific
Something To Note: Former Gopher head coach Dan Monson has done it again, putting together a monster nonconference schedule for his 49ers. The 49ers play four opponents I'm projecting into the Field of 68 (Arizona, Creighton, Michigan, Missouri), and play three others that finished in the top 100 of the RPI, NCAA qualifiers Kansas State (20) and NC State (33), as well as Washington (88). The average RPI of LBSU's nonconference opponents is 74.1, the lowest in the country. That's impressive no matter how you slice it.

Colonial
New: College of Charleston
Gone: George Mason, Georgia State, Old Dominion
Something To Note: What was once a promising mid-major league (see Final Four trips by since departed George Mason and VCU) has now morphed backwards to a likely 1-bidder. Is there a program capable of stepping into the role of CAA bell-cow? Bueller? Bueller, Anyone?

Conference USA
New: Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio
Gone: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU
Something To Note: The more things change, the more things stay the same. C-USA remains a mass-of-humanity entity (16 teams), except now with the departure of Memphis it lacks a truly name program. Even with 16 teams, I'm not sure C-USA has the goods to get a 2nd team into the NCAA.

Horizon
New: Oakland
Gone: Loyola-Chicago
Something To Note: Don't be surprised if Oakland and sharp-shooter Travis Bader are immediate factors in their new home.

Ivy
Something To Note: Rookie of the Year and 1st-Team All-Ivy League selection Siyani Chambers (Hopkins) looks to get the Crimson to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament after reaching the Round of 32 last season with an upset of New Mexico.

Metro Atlantic
New: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Gone: Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: Iona seeks its third straight trip to the NCAA.

MAC
Something To Note: Former Michigan State player and Tom Izzo assistant Mark Montgomery enters his third season at Northern Illinois with a 10-51 overall record (6-26 in the MAC). Would think some significant improvement is required for Montgomery to stick around for a 4th season?

MEAC
Something To Note: Todd Bozeman, he of Cal-Berkeley infamy, has done a nice job turning Morgan State into perhaps the MEAC's best program. But the Bears now appear to have some company with improving Norfolk State and Savannah State.

Missouri Valley
New: Loyola-Chicago
Gone: Creighton
Something To Note: Please indulge me a "It's a small world" personal aside. MVC newbie Loyola is coached by Porter Moser, younger brother of Matt Moser. Before moving back to Minnesota in the late 70s, I shared a youth-league All-Star baseball team with Matt in Naperville, Ill. After winning a sub-regional, our quest for Williamsport ended with a loss to Joliet on a field a stone's throw away from Joliet Prison (since closed). Why do I remember this so well? Because our mode of transportation to Joliet was the Moser family's "house on wheels/RV", and I thought it was about the coolest thing ever. OK, now back to our regular programming.

Mountain West
New: San Jose State, Utah State
Something To Note: The MWC was all the rage during the 2012-13 regular season, earning 5 NCAA bids, but then it proceeded to perform a face-plant of gigantic proportions in the NCAA Tournament, failing to get a team to the second weekend. The expectations should be more modest this season, with New Mexico and Boise State seemingly the only teams capable of playing more than two games after Selection Sunday.

Northeast
Gone: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Something To Note: LIU looks to earn its fourth straight automatic bid, an impressive accomplishment no matter the size of your conference.

Ohio Valley
Something To Note: The OVC is now all about Belmont.

Pac 12
Something To Note: It says here the Pac 12 is on a serious up-tick. The league has recovered from its doldrums of a couple years ago, and I won't be surprised if it finishes as the 3rd-best conference (behind the Big Ten and ACC). Eight teams legitimately could be in the hunt for a NCAA spot, though I'm banking it'll end up being 5 or 6 in the Big Dance.

Patriot
New: Boston U, Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: With Minnesota-native Mike Muscala (Bucknell) and C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) off to the NBA, the Patriot League race should be wide open. The two newcomers should be contenders, too.

SEC
Something To Note: LSU is one of my under-the-radar sleepers, but the Tigers will have to overcome a soft nonconference slate. This team could be dangerous in March if it gets enough scalps (Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee) during the SEC season.

Southern
Gone: College of Charleston
Something To Note: It's Davidson's last go-round in the SoCon before moving to the A-10 in 2014-15. it should be a two-horse race with Elon.

Southland
New: Abilene Christian, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, New Orleans
Something To Note: Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are Division I newcomers and will play only 14 conference games. The remaining 12 SLC squads will play an 18-game conference slate.

SWAC
Something To Note: The SWAC contiunes to struggle with APR shortcomings. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling, and Mississippi Valley State are ineligible for the SWAC and all other postseason tournaments, leaving the conference with just seven teams eligible for the conference's automatic NCAA bid.

Summit
New: Denver
Gone: Kansas City, Oakland
Something To Note: North Dakota State coach "Better Call" Saul Phillips and Denver coach Joe Scott have scheduled to challenge their talented & veteran squads. The Bison's non-league slate includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, and Southern Miss, while the Pioneers get a crack at Belmont, Cal, Harvard, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, and Wyoming. Can either or both win enough quality games outside of their league to make themselves viable at-large candidates in the event they don't won the conference tournament? I see an outside chance at two NCAA bids. Not a great chance, but at least way more than a Lloyd Christmas chance.

Sun Belt
New: Georgia State, Texas-Arlington, Texas State
Gone: FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas
Something To Note: Western Kentucky has won each of the last two Sun Belt tournaments by having to win four games in four days. Don't expect it to happen a third straight time. This time the Hilltoppers will get 'er done in three.

West Coast
New: Pacific
Something To Note: My other under-the-radar sleeper (see LSU above) is BYU. Despite losing forward Brandon Davies to the NBA, Cougar fans should have big expectations with the return of 6-5 junior guard Tyler Haws. Haws has the ability to take the Cougars to "Jimmer" heights, which for the BYU faithful means the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

WAC
New: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Grand Canyon, Kansas City, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Gone: Denver, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Texas-Arlington, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Utah State
Something To Note: The stone-cold, 100%, put-it-in-the-bank lock of the upcoming college hoops season is that New Mexico State will earn the new-look WAC's automatic bid. "New look" is putting it kindly. Just take a gander at the new teams entering the league. What an awful, awful basketball conglomeration. That said, NMSU is a solid basketball program, and assuming they remain in the WAC (not a given), the Aggies should run roughshod over this group of lightweights on a yearly basis, provided they stick around.

Independent/Defunct Great West
Who's Gone: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Something To Note: "1" is indeed the loneliest number. NJIT is the only remaining Division I independent, and these Highlanders certainly won't be in the hunt for an at-large bid like the Digger Phelps (Notre Dame) and Ray Meyer (DePaul) Independent days of long ago.

I will sleep better tonight after knowing SS is on the ball once again. I am excited for the season already!! Good Stuff!

Looks like I need to block some time out on my work calendar tomorrow to get through this awesome analysis!! Wow, what a write up!

Go Gophers!!

As always, I really enjoy reading these. Great job!

Well, when the Big Ten doesn't get even 60% of what the ACC gets in terms of RSCI top-10, top-20, top-30 or top-50 prospects since 1998, it's not hard to see why the ACC has gotten champions and the Big Ten hasn't. Bottom line is the Big Ten is the 5th-best basketball conference in the country in terms of recruiting. Hard to win titles when everyone else recruits better. Even the Pac-12 (counting schools that were in the league at the time only) gets more top-50 prospects than the Big Ten, but it's close. Which is probably why the Pac-12 also has a lengthy NC drought. Even the SEC has gotten almost twice as many top-20 hoops prospects as the Big Ten since 1998.

It's been very difficult for coaches to recruit top talent to the Big Ten even though the league has a lot of attractive features (fan support, great coaches, great universities, and in many places great facilities). Too much of the slow paced, physical stigma attached to the league (thanks, Bo) and that's not the style most of the top tier prospects want to play in. The NC-less streak will almost certainly continue for another year, as 2013 was a much better opportunity as Louisville was not one of the most talented champions but the Big Ten teams just weren't quite good enough.

OSUfan said:

Well, when the Big Ten doesn't get even 60% of what the ACC gets in terms of RSCI top-10, top-20, top-30 or top-50 prospects since 1998, it's not hard to see why the ACC has gotten champions and the Big Ten hasn't. Bottom line is the Big Ten is the 5th-best basketball conference in the country in terms of recruiting. Hard to win titles when everyone else recruits better. Even the Pac-12 (counting schools that were in the league at the time only) gets more top-50 prospects than the Big Ten, but it's close. Which is probably why the Pac-12 also has a lengthy NC drought. Even the SEC has gotten almost twice as many top-20 hoops prospects as the Big Ten since 1998.

It's been very difficult for coaches to recruit top talent to the Big Ten even though the league has a lot of attractive features (fan support, great coaches, great universities, and in many places great facilities). Too much of the slow paced, physical stigma attached to the league (thanks, Bo) and that's not the style most of the top tier prospects want to play in. The NC-less streak will almost certainly continue for another year, as 2013 was a much better opportunity as Louisville was not one of the most talented champions but the Big Ten teams just weren't quite good enough.

Click to expand...

The Big Ten has the second most F4 appearances since 2005 with 7. Only the Big East (9) has more.

The BT has also had the most teams in the championship game in that same time frame. They have played in it in 4 out of the last 9 years; ACC -3, SEC - 3, Big East - 2, Big 12 - 2, Horizon - 2, PAC 10 - 1, and CUSA - 1

Finally, the BT has had four different programs go to the championship game in the past nine years (Illinois, Michigan St., Ohio St., and Michigan). No other conference has had more than two.

I know the ultimate goal is to win it all and picking the nine year time frame is kinda convenient, just thought it was interesting. I don't think talent is a huge issue.

If only there were four fewer at-large bids.

GophersInIowa said:

The Big Ten has the second most F4 appearances since 2005 with 7. Only the Big East (9) has more.

The BT has also had the most teams in the championship game in that same time frame. They have played in it in 4 out of the last 9 years; ACC -3, SEC - 3, Big East - 2, Big 12 - 2, Horizon - 2, PAC 10 - 1, and CUSA - 1

Finally, the BT has had four different programs go to the championship game in the past nine years (Illinois, Michigan St., Ohio St., and Michigan). No other conference has had more than two.

I know the ultimate goal is to win it all and picking the nine year time frame is kinda convenient, just thought it was interesting. I don't think talent is a huge issue.

Click to expand...

Oh, it's a huge issue when you're actually trying to win the whole thing. Look at the teams that win, not the teams that "only" make the F4. Even mid-majors are making the F4 occasionally now with a minimal amount of top-100 recruits, so clearly the talent level in college hoops now is just watered down enough to allow for teams that aren't all that talented but have a good blend of skills and depth to break through in a region when they get hot at the end of the year. But as far as actual champions, they pretty much all have at least two guys who are first round picks or stick on NBA rosters - much more likely for an ACC or SEC team to have that than a Big Ten team. Louisville in 2013 was one of the weakest champions I think, although a few of their top talents are coming back and could be drafted in the future.

Coaches complaining about the loss of one at-large bid is laughable. Whoever wins the new Big East and Old Big East would both surely have made the tournament either way. Cue Seth Greenburg weeping.

OSUfan said:

Oh, it's a huge issue when you're actually trying to win the whole thing. Look at the teams that win, not the teams that "only" make the F4. Even mid-majors are making the F4 occasionally now with a minimal amount of top-100 recruits, so clearly the talent level in college hoops now is just watered down enough to allow for teams that aren't all that talented but have a good blend of skills and depth to break through in a region when they get hot at the end of the year. But as far as actual champions, they pretty much all have at least two guys who are first round picks or stick on NBA rosters - much more likely for an ACC or SEC team to have that than a Big Ten team. Louisville in 2013 was one of the weakest champions I think, although a few of their top talents are coming back and could be drafted in the future.

Click to expand...

Three of the four BT teams who made it to the championship had big-time, top-end talent. Illinois had Deron Williams (3rd overall draft pick), Ohio St. had Oden (1st) and Conley (4th). Michigan's team last year has already produced two 1st round picks and could produce several more in the future.

What your saying may have been true 10 years ago, but I just don't think it is true anymore. The conference is full of top end talent in my opinion.

GophersInIowa said:

Three of the four BT teams who made it to the championship had big-time, top-end talent. Illinois had Deron Williams (3rd overall draft pick), Ohio St. had Oden (1st) and Conley (4th). Michigan's team last year has already produced two 1st round picks and could produce several more in the future.

What your saying may have been true 10 years ago, but I just don't think it is true anymore. The conference is full of top end talent in my opinion.

Click to expand...

But Illinois, OSU, and UM lost. If the Big Ten recruited on the level of the ACC, then each of those teams probably would've had another first round pick on the roster and if they had that then they could well have won it all but they didn't. It's not certain whether UM has other 1st round picks from that team. McGary could lose a lot of money by coming back.

OSUfan said:

But Illinois, OSU, and UM lost. If the Big Ten recruited on the level of the ACC, then each of those teams probably would've had another first round pick on the roster and if they had that then they could well have won it all but they didn't. It's not certain whether UM has other 1st round picks from that team. McGary could lose a lot of money by coming back.

Click to expand...

I'm really unsure what point you're trying to make here. UM had 2 first round picks....Louisville only had 1....Louisville won that one game. I think GII is saying that one game (even that Nat'l Championship) is not a good indicator of overall conference strength each year.

As to your point that more 1st round picks would have won the championship....well sure, a team with the top 5 picks in the draft would win the championship most years. So what? You claimed that B10 teams weren't getting top talent....they are, and have made it to the championship, they have just happened to lose those games (lately).

OSUfan said:

But Illinois, OSU, and UM lost. If the Big Ten recruited on the level of the ACC, then each of those teams probably would've had another first round pick on the roster and if they had that then they could well have won it all but they didn't. It's not certain whether UM has other 1st round picks from that team. McGary could lose a lot of money by coming back.

Click to expand...

So the team with Oden and Conley did not have enough talent to win the National Championship? Please. If that was the case, O$U would have increased the recruiting budget. I am sure the money guys thought Thad had it in the bag that year and that they did not need to pay for one more first round draft choice.

Maybe you have not been following Big 10 basketball for long, but it has always been a tough, physical conference. Most likely always will be. And here is a newsflash for you, Mata does not exactly play racehorse basketball. They play plenty of games in the 50's also.

And talk about choking. How many NCAA titles did OSU win when Lebron was there? They couldn't even get it done with the best player of this generation.

GVBadger said:

And talk about choking. How many NCAA titles did OSU win when Lebron was there? They couldn't even get it done with the best player of this generation.

Click to expand...

Not. Sure. If. Serious.

GVBadger said:

So the team with Oden and Conley did not have enough talent to win the National Championship? Please. If that was the case, O$U would have increased the recruiting budget. I am sure the money guys thought Thad had it in the bag that year and that they did not need to pay for one more first round draft choice.

Maybe you have not been following Big 10 basketball for long, but it has always been a tough, physical conference. Most likely always will be. And here is a newsflash for you, Mata does not exactly play racehorse basketball. They play plenty of games in the 50's also.

And talk about choking. How many NCAA titles did OSU win when Lebron was there? They couldn't even get it done with the best player of this generation.

Click to expand...

My God some of you people display your ignorance with comments like those in bold. For your information GVB, LeBron never played college ball.

. "The Cavaliers selected James with the first overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft from St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, Ohio." (Taken from his biography on Google.)

GVBadger said:

So the team with Oden and Conley did not have enough talent to win the National Championship? Please. If that was the case, O$U would have increased the recruiting budget. I am sure the money guys thought Thad had it in the bag that year and that they did not need to pay for one more first round draft choice.

Maybe you have not been following Big 10 basketball for long, but it has always been a tough, physical conference. Most likely always will be. And here is a newsflash for you, Mata does not exactly play racehorse basketball. They play plenty of games in the 50's also.

And talk about choking. How many NCAA titles did OSU win when Lebron was there? They couldn't even get it done with the best player of this generation.

Click to expand...

wait!what? put the warm shlitz down...

I don’t want to write a book on this but I want to make a few points. Two things that fans say that bother are a player’s success at the next level shows they were better player at the previous level(playing well in college makes you a better high school player, NBA=better college player), and tournament results always show who the best team was that year.

First I think nine years is an odd time frame so let’s just look at things since the big 10 last won a title.

Duke 2 titles
Connecticut 2 titles
Florida 2 titles
North Carolina 2 titles

So over a span of 13 years four teams won eight titles. You can make the case that this proves these programs are dominant over the given time span, but I'm not so sure this proves the Big Ten has been down. Is the Big Ten drought simply the result of the return to power by the blue blood? Others have made the point about how many final four teams the big ten has produced. To dismiss that has a minor feat would be to say that there is only one great team a year. We all know that can’t be true. Or to look at it from another angle every year there has to be at least one great team. Again dealing in absolutes is dangerous. The UConn team was far from great. UConn only did one great thing that year half-court defense. They were at best average at everything else.

The SEC has three titles in this time span. That ties them with the Big East. Who wants to try and make the case that the SEC has been on par with the Big East over the last 13 years? Who’s going to try and make the case that the SEC is a far better conference that the Big Ten?

One last thing if winning a tournament absolutely proves that you are the best/greatest team how do you feel about the NCAA champs that didn’t when their conference tournament? By the set standard that title=best team how can you be the best team in the NCAA but not your conference? So Kentucky was the second best team in the NCAA that year? A tournament championship only proves that you were better than the team you played that night. Florida’s upper classmen were far better than Ohio State’s underclassmen that night.

Thanks gaunt, very well stated.

For the record, I'm in the camp that the Big Ten, right now, is at worst the second best conference in the country, certainly the best heading into this season with the new Big East flux. That's been the case since the 2010-11 season, anyways, and I expect it to remain that way after the upcoming season. In my mind the only other conferences meriting consideration as The Big Dog are the Big East and ACC (in that order), and as we all know the Big East is going through a major transition. That leaves the Big Ten and the ACC, though I think the Pac 12 is making a push. Big 12 usually pretty stellar, too, but I don't see much there this season once you get past the top 3 (KU, Ok State, Baylor) or maybe 4 (Iowa State).

All that said, my main point is that "it's time" for the Big Ten to win it all. As you and others have pointed out, there have been plenty of opportunities at the Final Four, and in quite a few cases the championship game. No shame in that at all. It's just overdue in terms of how competitive/deep this conference has been. I gotta' believe the pendulum of percentages is going to swing the Big Ten's way soon.

Next year it'll get really interesting when Louisville joins the ACC. Duke, Carolina, Louisville, and Syracuse. ... that's a studly top 4 that will be difficult for the Big Ten to match. Looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out.

In the end, though, it's not really about the conferences. Each team/school is an individual entity. That's the way it is when the Selection Committee selects teams for the tournament (conference affiliation means zippo), and that's the way it is when a champion is crowned. A champion is crowned, not a conference.

fryguy22 said:

I'm really unsure what point you're trying to make here. UM had 2 first round picks....Louisville only had 1....Louisville won that one game. I think GII is saying that one game (even that Nat'l Championship) is not a good indicator of overall conference strength each year.

As to your point that more 1st round picks would have won the championship....well sure, a team with the top 5 picks in the draft would win the championship most years. So what? You claimed that B10 teams weren't getting top talent....they are, and have made it to the championship, they have just happened to lose those games (lately).

Click to expand...

I should backtrack a bit here. I'm saying the Big Ten teams don't get the same amount of top players that the ACC, SEC and other leagues get, and that's the main reason why they haven't won any titles since 2000. Occasionally a Big Ten team have some more talent than a typical top Big Ten team has and make a run but still the fact that the Big Ten teams almost never have the kind of stars plus depth of the other top teams makes it unlikely for them to win a title. As others have noted, sometimes there are a few teams that could win a title in certain years (although in some years like 2007, 2009, and 2012 there was only one team that could possibly have won the championship because they winner was just TOO TALENTED for the opposition that year). There are years like 2013, 2011 and 2008 where the national champion was not head and shoulders above their competition and maybe if the ball bounces a different way at the right time in a certain game then someone else wins. But 2008 was a really strong year, the best teams were much too strong for a typical Big Ten top team that year. Years like 2011 and 2013 are the type of years when the Big Ten could potentially break through, but again the fact that Big Ten schools aren't able to recruit as many star (i.e., legit NBA prospect) players and compile as star-studded rosters as their peers in the ACC and SEC is huge. Yes, UM you could say had better star power than Louisville, but really they lost that game because Louisville was a bit better from a depth standpoint and able to play at a high level for a tad longer. Louisville was just a bit better from the standpoint of having more guys that could hurt you than UM - their leading scorer went 3-16 and they still won by 6, that shows you Louisville could beat you in a lot of ways. But I believe the Big Ten teams have almost always lacked both the quality of stars and the depth of talent that most championship teams have - when a Big Ten team has a couple stars on the level of legit NBA prospects they tend to make deep runs but it doesn't always materialize (see 2013 IU for example). Big Ten teams are NOT getting talent on the level of their peers - FACT. IF that fact were different, then you'd see more titles for the Big Ten but really it's an uphill battle for Big Ten teams to compete for the NC in college basketball.

I guess the part that bothers me is I don't like to ding the Big Ten for not winning a national title when they're in an uphill battle to start with, and on top of that it takes some luck to win for most any team. Big Ten teams shouldn't really be expected to win a title with the way college basketball is now to the point where it is a negative on the league for not winning it. They don't have Duke, UNC, UK or KU in the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is worse than the Big Ten in my book for not winning it all and having UCLA.

And as the point that the SEC and Big East have the same number of titles since 2000 suggests, winning it all doesn't prove who has the best conference anyway, which is another reason why I don't like to use the NC measure to evaluate who's a strong conference and who isn't.

GVBadger said:

So the team with Oden and Conley did not have enough talent to win the National Championship? Please. If that was the case, O$U would have increased the recruiting budget. I am sure the money guys thought Thad had it in the bag that year and that they did not need to pay for one more first round draft choice.

Click to expand...

You know, Jamar Butler and Ivan Harris were starters on that 2007 OSU team. Neither was even close to being drafted. Ron Lewis also started on that team and also was not drafted. That's three starters who were neither drafted nor played in an NBA game. OSU did have three players on that team drafted, but it was only three total in any year. Florida had four of their starting five drafted that year, three in the lottery I believe (the other fifth of the starting five I believe is still #1 in made 3-pointers in NCAA tourney history), and at least one of their bench players was a first round pick. So yes, OSU was not talented enough to beat Florida.

OSUfan said:

I should backtrack a bit here. I'm saying the Big Ten teams don't get the same amount of top players that the ACC, SEC and other leagues get, and that's the main reason why they haven't won any titles since 2000. Occasionally a Big Ten team have some more talent than a typical top Big Ten team has and make a run but still the fact that the Big Ten teams almost never have the kind of stars plus depth of the other top teams makes it unlikely for them to win a title. As others have noted, sometimes there are a few teams that could win a title in certain years (although in some years like 2007, 2009, and 2012 there was only one team that could possibly have won the championship because they winner was just TOO TALENTED for the opposition that year). There are years like 2013, 2011 and 2008 where the national champion was not head and shoulders above their competition and maybe if the ball bounces a different way at the right time in a certain game then someone else wins. But 2008 was a really strong year, the best teams were much too strong for a typical Big Ten top team that year. Years like 2011 and 2013 are the type of years when the Big Ten could potentially break through, but again the fact that Big Ten schools aren't able to recruit as many star (i.e., legit NBA prospect) players and compile as star-studded rosters as their peers in the ACC and SEC is huge. Yes, UM you could say had better star power than Louisville, but really they lost that game because Louisville was a bit better from a depth standpoint and able to play at a high level for a tad longer. Louisville was just a bit better from the standpoint of having more guys that could hurt you than UM - their leading scorer went 3-16 and they still won by 6, that shows you Louisville could beat you in a lot of ways. But I believe the Big Ten teams have almost always lacked both the quality of stars and the depth of talent that most championship teams have - when a Big Ten team has a couple stars on the level of legit NBA prospects they tend to make deep runs but it doesn't always materialize (see 2013 IU for example). Big Ten teams are NOT getting talent on the level of their peers - FACT. IF that fact were different, then you'd see more titles for the Big Ten but really it's an uphill battle for Big Ten teams to compete for the NC in college basketball.

I guess the part that bothers me is I don't like to ding the Big Ten for not winning a national title when they're in an uphill battle to start with, and on top of that it takes some luck to win for most any team. Big Ten teams shouldn't really be expected to win a title with the way college basketball is now to the point where it is a negative on the league for not winning it. They don't have Duke, UNC, UK or KU in the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is worse than the Big Ten in my book for not winning it all and having UCLA.

Click to expand...

Okay, I see what you're saying. My point is that there have been multiple years lately where the B10 HAS been a couple plays away, and a lot of times it's just "any given night" - for example, maybe last year UM beats UL 4.5 out of 10 (made up numbers), that just wasn't one of them.

But I completely understand your point. The B10 can be the best and deepest league without having one elite team in a given year, I think we are in agreement there