The Official "is Tubby leaving" thread for 3/30/09

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MNSnowman

MNSnowman

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Goodness, that thread on the UVa site speculation grew to over 160 posts ... so I figured it was time for a new thread for today. (And, after all, it's Monday both here and in Charlottesville.)

My prophetic statement continues to be: If it happens, it happens.

No amount of caterwauling, cajoling, mugwumping, begging or grousing here is going to change Tubby's mind one way or another. No amount of parsing each word that Tubby says (or is reported as saying) is going to make it more or less likely he leaves.

Have at it, everyone ... it's a whole new day for speculation, rumors and angst ..... ;)
 

I think it will come down to $$$; if a school can come up with the cash, Tubby makes a dash.

I believe one's history is always a strong indicator of what they are likely to do in the future. Tubby's history:

1. Georgia: Tubby bolted from Georgia for much more money at Kentucky, despite him only being at GA for 2 years and turning the program around, making the Sweet 16 and 1st round in the NCAA Tourney in those 2 years.
2. Kentucky --> Virginia: As many have noted, Tubby was going to do the same thing in 2005 and leave Kentucky for Virginia. If Virginia had met his demands for $$$, he would be the UVa head coach right now, despite a strong Kentucky class coming in that year. They couldn't come up with the money, so he stayed at Kentucky.
3. Kentucky --> Minnesota: Tubby bolted from Kentucky for much more money at the U, despite a strong recruiting class coming in at Kentucky with Patrick Patterson, Jai Lucas, etc., a great new practice facility, and a powerhouse program.

So it seems regardless of the school, conference, or recruiting class coming in, Tubby has always been willing to jump for a nice increase in dollars. I'm not judging him either way, just pointing out the obvious.
 

MNSnowman said:
Goodness, that thread on the UVa site speculation grew to over 160 posts ... so I figured it was time for a new thread for today. (And, after all, it's Monday both here and in Charlottesville.)

My prophetic statement continues to be: If it happens, it happens.

No amount of caterwauling, cajoling, mugwumping, begging or grousing here is going to change Tubby's mind one way or another. No amount of parsing each word that Tubby says (or is reported as saying) is going to make it more or less likely he leaves.

Have at it, everyone ... it's a whole new day for speculation, rumors and angst ..... ;)
Click to expand...

i for one will not be going to sleep tonight - or for the next 72 hours. i am now officially in fasting mode and on an all-night "is tubby leaving watch".

don't worry folks. i will be patroling all flight plans out of minneapolis to virginia, checking thesabre.com message board every 15 seconds throughout the night for new speculation regarding tubby, and burning candles while keeping vigil in front of my tubby shrine until this insanity finally comes to an end. also, i suggest you all go to your place of worship before work tomorrow and say a prayer on the gophers behalf and also offer tubby your first born son. we all must do our part. ;) ;)
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
I think it will come down to $$$; if a school can come up with the cash, Tubby makes a dash.

I believe one's history is always a strong indicator of what someone is likely to do. Tubby's history:

1. Georgia: Tubby bolted from Georgia for a much more money at Kentucky, despite him only being at GA for 2 years and turning the program around, making the Sweet 16 and 1st round in the NCAA Tourney in those 2 years.
2. Kentucky --> Virginia: As many have noted, Tubby was going to do the same thing in 2005 and leave Kentucky for Virginia. If Virginia had met his demands for $$$, he would be the UVa head coach right now, despite a strong Kentucky class coming in that year. They couldn't come up with the money, so he stayed at Kentucky.
3. Kentucky --> Minnesota: Tubby bolted from Kentucky for much more money at the U, despite a strong recruiting class coming in at Kentucky with Patrick Patterson, Jai Lucas, etc., a great new practice facility, and a powerhouse program.

So it seems regardless of the school, conference, or recruiting class coming in, Tubby has always been willing to jump for a nice increase in dollars. I'm not judging him either way, just pointing out the obvious.
Click to expand...


I agree with most of your post, but I am fairly certain that Tubby took a pay cut to move from Kentucky to Minnesota. He signed a 7-year/$13 million deal at Minnesota. He was in the midst of an 8-year/$20 million deal at KY (if I remember correctly).
 

tjgopher said:
I agree with most of your post, but I am fairly certain that Tubby took a pay cut to move from Kentucky to Minnesota. He signed a 7-year/$13 million deal at Minnesota. He was in the midst of an 8-year/$20 million deal at KY (if I remember correctly).
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I don't think the "pay cut" part is accurate. I believe if he meets certain criteria, he could end up making a lot more at the U than at Kentucky. In fact, I saw a recent article that stated if Tubby met certain incentives at the U, he would be the highest paid NCAA coach (which is hard to believe considering the Fort Knox-like compensation Billy D is garnering down in Gainesville).
 


ShowinGoldyLove said:
I don't think the "pay cut" part is accurate. I believe if he meets certain criteria, he could end up making a lot more at the U than at Kentucky. In fact, I saw a recent article that stated if Tubby met certain incentives at the U, he would be the highest paid NCAA coach (which is hard to believe considering the Fort Knox-like compensation Billy D is garnering down in Gainesville).
Click to expand...

Curiosity got the best of me, so I tried to research this the best I could. I could be off some here (and it isn't that big of a deal).

Tubby took a pay cut in base salary moving from KY to MN. That is for sure. He would have been making $2.2 million this year at KY. He isn't making that much at MN (he's at $1.8m this year base).

But, you are right, if he hits incentives he can make more at MN. For example, if he wins the national title, he gets $500,000. If he goes to the Final Four, he gets $250,000. If he wins the Big Ten title, he gets $100,000. So, he COULD make $3.5 million per year, which would rank him about 2nd or 3rd in the nation - if he wins the Big Ten title, goes to the Final Four, and wins the national title. How sweet would it be to have to write out all those incentive checks?!?!

But, I think realistically, Tubby would have made more having stayed in KY. He had incentive deals in his KY contracts, including a $1.5 million longevity bonus after 2007 (which he got) and after 2011 (which he would have got had he stayed).

Linked are the few articles I found on this.

http://www.insightnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3777%3Agophers-head-coach-tubby-smith-completes-seven&Itemid=7

http://www.startribune.com/sports/gophers/12359321.html

http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-8968373_ITM

http://www.uky.edu/PR/News/Archives/2003/April2003/03-04_athletics_board.htm
 

Bronko Nagurski Gopher said:
i for one will not be going to sleep tonight - or for the next 72 hours. i am now officially in fasting mode and on an all-night "is tubby leaving watch".

don't worry folks. i will be patroling all flight plans out of minneapolis to virginia, checking thesabre.com message board every 15 seconds throughout the night for new speculation regarding tubby, and burning candles while keeping vigil in front of my tubby shrine until this insanity finally comes to an end. also, i suggest you all go to your place of worship before work tomorrow and say a prayer on the gophers behalf and also offer tubby your first born son. we all must do our part. ;) ;)
Click to expand...

LOL! Now you sounds like an obsessed Kentucky or Nebraska fan!

As for the $, I really don't think it will come down to that. I've never made millions before, but I'm guessing, after you get to a certain point, you really don't need much more. Tubby does not live the life of P Diddy, with his entourage, private jets, Cristal, and jewelry...and I really don't think he needs or wants much more (other than a practice facility, which is for the program, not him). I also think everyone gets to a point in their lives (I'm sure this happened many years ago for him) where quality of life is so much more important than some extra cash.

I'm at the point where I wouldn't be surprised by anything, but I still can't see Tubby leaving. He is worshiped here, he's in an actually city with tons to do, Donna is very involved in the community and loves it here, he has little pressure compared to his Kentucky job, people leave him alone for the most part. And honesty, if you're going to move just because it's warmer, there's nothing we can do about it. I can't imagine that being a huge factor either, though, as he's in the gym from October - March, the coldest months.

Even after all these rumors, my gut still tells me Tubby will stay here...but expect the unexpected with coaching changes!
 

GopherLady said:
LOL! Now you sounds like an obsessed Kentucky or Nebraska fan!

As for the $, I really don't think it will come down to that. I've never made millions before, but I'm guessing, after you get to a certain point, you really don't need much more. Tubby does not live the life of P Diddy, with his entourage, private jets, Cristal, and jewelry...and I really don't think he needs or wants much more (other than a practice facility, which is for the program, not him). I also think everyone gets to a point in their lives (I'm sure this happened many years ago for him) where quality of life is so much more important than some extra cash.

I'm at the point where I wouldn't be surprised by anything, but I still can't see Tubby leaving. He is worshiped here, he's in an actually city with tons to do, Donna is very involved in the community and loves it here, he has little pressure compared to his Kentucky job, people leave him alone for the most part. And honesty, if you're going to move just because it's warmer, there's nothing we can do about it. I can't imagine that being a huge factor either, though, as he's in the gym from October - March, the coldest months.

Even after all these rumors, my gut still tells me Tubby will stay here...but expect the unexpected with coaching changes!
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1.) thank you. i really do give it my all! :D

2.) nice "hedge" job on your last sentence. did it like a pro! coaches everywhere would be proud! ;)
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
I think it will come down to $$$; if a school can come up with the cash, Tubby makes a dash.

I believe one's history is always a strong indicator of what they are likely to do in the future. Tubby's history:

1. Georgia: Tubby bolted from Georgia for much more money at Kentucky, despite him only being at GA for 2 years and turning the program around, making the Sweet 16 and 1st round in the NCAA Tourney in those 2 years.
2. Kentucky --> Virginia: As many have noted, Tubby was going to do the same thing in 2005 and leave Kentucky for Virginia. If Virginia had met his demands for $$$, he would be the UVa head coach right now, despite a strong Kentucky class coming in that year. They couldn't come up with the money, so he stayed at Kentucky.
3. Kentucky --> Minnesota: Tubby bolted from Kentucky for much more money at the U, despite a strong recruiting class coming in at Kentucky with Patrick Patterson, Jai Lucas, etc., a great new practice facility, and a powerhouse program.

So it seems regardless of the school, conference, or recruiting class coming in, Tubby has always been willing to jump for a nice increase in dollars. I'm not judging him either way, just pointing out the obvious.
Click to expand...

The move from Georgia to Kentucky was not for more $.

The Virginia possibility (2005) was not just for more $.

Tubby took a $500K (per year) pay CUT to come to Minnesota for a better opportunity.
 



ShowinGoldyLove said:
I don't think the "pay cut" part is accurate. I believe if he meets certain criteria, he could end up making a lot more at the U than at Kentucky. In fact, I saw a recent article that stated if Tubby met certain incentives at the U, he would be the highest paid NCAA coach (which is hard to believe considering the Fort Knox-like compensation Billy D is garnering down in Gainesville).
Click to expand...

Not so. His salary at UK was higher and his bonuses were higher, too. Definitely a pay cut.
 


I don't think that Tubby retires here but he will coach the 2009-2010 gophers. Currently there isn't an open job that is more attractive than this one. Once a top five or ten job opens up Tubby will go. OK could be in that category but I'm not sure I see Capel leaving for either VA or UK. VA is a semi backwater job (like MN was) and the UK position is analogous to Michigan in football: a program living on its past glory that is no longer able to attract the best and the brightest.
 

hmmmmmmmmmmm

jamiche said:
I don't think that Tubby retires here but he will coach the 2009-2010 gophers. Currently there isn't an open job that is more attractive than this one. Once a top five or ten job opens up Tubby will go. OK could be in that category but I'm not sure I see Capel leaving for either VA or UK. VA is a semi backwater job (like MN was) and the UK position is analogous to Michigan in football: a program living on its past glory that is no longer able to attract the best and the brightest.
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Only Tubby knows for sure but I tend to disagree with you on this. I dont think Tubby wants another top 5 type job. Been there - done that.

UV or Maryland might be a place he would like to finish his career. Maryland could still open up in a year or two.

Only Tubby knows for sure but I look forward to this current conflagration getting settled soon.

..and still, current Head Coach of the Golden Gophers: Tubby Smith :clap: :clap: :clap:

:)
 



What is more attractive is definitely subjective to the individual, but given the money, the fan support, the upcoming recruiting class, the plans already in the works for a new practice facility and the potential to prove your status as a top college coach, I just don't see how there can be a much more attractive place to be then MN at this time.
 

The effort he put into his dancing moves in his "mansion" on the "interweb" pretty much shows that he will be staying. Nobody consults with Paula Abdul before publishing a video on the internet to gloat and moves on to a new school. That would be internet suicide.
 


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