What is your "JUMPING OFF POINT" for Tubby?

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Gophers2Omaha

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Everyone makes a lot of good points about why we should keep Coach Smith or why we should let him go.

Personally, I think we should have parted ways with him last year. In one of my rare posts on the basketball message board I explained my reasoning towards the end of last season. I'd love to be wrong and have them rattle off 6 of 7, make the B1G tourney finals, and roll into the Sweet 16, but, I don't see that happening.

So, for those of you that are still supporting him, what would be YOUR jumping off point?
 

My first "criteria" was going 10-8 in conference, it was what I predicted prior to the season.

I'd need to see 10-8 and a sweet 16 appearance to say he should absolutely back.

Don't go 10-8, but make the tourney and win some games and make sweet 16 I'd probably still lean towards keeping him.

Miss the tourney or win zero tourney games and I think you have to move on.
 

scher215 said:
My first "criteria" was going 10-8 in conference, it was what I predicted prior to the season.

I'd need to see 10-8 and a sweet 16 appearance to say he should absolutely back.

Don't go 10-8, but make the tourney and win some games and make sweet 16 I'd probably still lean towards keeping him.

Miss the tourney or win zero tourney games and I think you have to move on.
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If he gets to the Sweet 16 or wins the BTT I am ready to give this season a thumbs up.

Make the round of 32, I'll be grumpy that he has only one one tournament game in 6 years, but willing to give him another chance next year because he will be coming off of his most season. I am never for firing a coach coming off of their best season with a team.

If we make the tournament but lose in the first round, I will be pissed at the choke job, but still think we should keep him. If we were not ready to fire him after last year, I don't see how we can fire for turning in a better season.

If we miss the tournament, it is absolutely time to move on.
 

If we miss the tournament it's time to move on, however if he makes the tournament and loses in one of the first two rounds it'll comedown too how successful Tubby is with the big three, if he lands two of them than he can come back for that year regardless of how the team does don't want to risk losing Travis or Vaughn because of a coaching change as most recruits commit to a coach not a school ( I believe reguardless of how this year plays out Tyus is going to Duke with his buddy Okafor hope I'm wrong)
 

I have been in Tubby's corner until this last Illinois game. Not sure why that turned the tables for me, but it did. My son and I were there at the Barn as usual, and it just struck me near the end for some reason that Tubby has lost this team (as I suspect he has several before), and that sadly the game has moved past him. If he doesn't get us to the Sweet Sixteen, I say it's time for a younger, more vibrant coach.
 


I Miss D.J. said:
I have been in Tubby's corner until this last Illinois game. Not sure why that turned the tables for me, but it did. My son and I were there at the Barn as usual, and it just struck me near the end for some reason that Tubby has lost this team (as I suspect he has several before), and that sadly the game has moved past him. If he doesn't get us to the Sweet Sixteen, I say it's time for a younger, more vibrant coach.
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Same here. For whatever reason, the Illinois game was a big one for me.
 

I Miss D.J. said:
I have been in Tubby's corner until this last Illinois game. Not sure why that turned the tables for me, but it did. My son and I were there at the Barn as usual, and it just struck me near the end for some reason that Tubby has lost this team (as I suspect he has several before), and that sadly the game has moved past him. If he doesn't get us to the Sweet Sixteen, I say it's time for a younger, more vibrant coach.
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I nominate Moses87 to be assisted by mnsports255.
 


Two years ago. It became painfully clear during the Hoffarber years that Tubby had little clue on devising an offense that would isolate the weaknesses of opposing teams and create open looks for his best shooters. Tubby will not change at this point and it ensures us that the Gophers will never finish above the middle of the conference. I shook my head when Teague gave Tubby a contract extension. This should be the end of the Tubby era at the end of this season irregardless of whether this specific team gets a hot streak in March.
 



Gophers2Omaha said:
Everyone makes a lot of good points about why we should keep Coach Smith or why we should let him go.

Personally, I think we should have parted ways with him last year. In one of my rare posts on the basketball message board I explained my reasoning towards the end of last season. I'd love to be wrong and have them rattle off 6 of 7, make the B1G tourney finals, and roll into the Sweet 16, but, I don't see that happening.

So, for those of you that are still supporting him, what would be YOUR jumping off point?
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Is anybody still defending him?

My tipping point was 2 years ago when we lost that game vs MSU (Again), after leading by 8 points with 3 minutes left.
 

I fell off of the bandwagon midway through last season. The NIT run and the good performance early this year got me limping alongside the wagon a bit... I still thought Tubby was a terrible coach, but he had enough talent that we could have success regardless.

Over our 4-game skid, I told myself that Michigan and Indiana were flat-out better than us, everyone struggles at the Kohl center and Northwestern just owns us (which is inexcusable in and of itself, but at least you know going in that the wildcats will play way above their level against us)

I thought that maybe beating up Nebraska would get the team back on track.

Barely beating Iowa at home got me again outright saying that he should be fired.

Losing to MSU on the road shouldn't be a big deal, I didn't expect to win anyway. But When MSU played an AWFUL game, and we couldn't even look in any way respectable, it still was bad. That was the worst I've ever seen the Spartans play and we still were worse.

Losing to Illinois at home got me writing email rants and this post.

I really don't care what else happens this season. Fire Tubby.

I don't want to re-hash my whole long email, but my point was this: College basketball consists of 3 things. Recruiting, motivation, and X's and O's. I actually think Tubby has done a decent job recruiting overall. His spring recruits infuriate me, but overall I think he's been fine. More worrying to me is the fact that he knows all of the WRONG buttons to press to motivate his team. He consistently loses the team. The players don't want to play for him, and are unprepared and therefore unable to play with the level of energy needed to play at this level. And X's and O's.. I don't even know where to start. Watch the second half of the Northwestern game again, that's all you ever need to know about Tubby's ability to teach X's and O's.

But consistently throwing players under the bus, losing the team any time there is some kind of adversity, and the consistent unpreparedness are inexcusable and are not going to change with a new set of players next year or at any point in the near future.

Fire Tubby.
 


I Miss D.J. said:
I have been in Tubby's corner until this last Illinois game. Not sure why that turned the tables for me, but it did. My son and I were there at the Barn as usual, and it just struck me near the end for some reason that Tubby has lost this team (as I suspect he has several before), and that sadly the game has moved past him. If he doesn't get us to the Sweet Sixteen, I say it's time for a younger, more vibrant coach.
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Ditto.

Then again, I believed Clem when he said he had nothing to do with Gangle-gate and was probably the last one on the planet to acknowledge that he did. What can I say, I'm a homer fan. The play on the floor is just not disciplined, plain and simple. At some point, you have to look at the man at the helm.
 



tinyarch said:
Two years ago. It became painfully clear during the Hoffarber years that Tubby had little clue on devising an offense that would isolate the weaknesses of opposing teams and create open looks for his best shooters..
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This was it for me as well. It doesn't matter though as we could miss the tourney and Tubby would be back. If Tubby is gone in the next two years it will be on his own imo.
 

I'm trying to compare this to how I felt with Brewster. I gave him a fair shake, but when they lost to the Coyotes, that was it for me. No matter what happened the rest of that year, I was done with him. There's not an equivalent loss for this team...yet. I'm on board until I see this team listed on the "First Four Out". If the tourney started today, they'd be an 8 seed at worst. I'm holding out hope that they've bottomed out for this year and will only go up.
 

bemidjigopher said:
If we miss the tournament it's time to move on, however if he makes the tournament and loses in one of the first two rounds it'll comedown too how successful Tubby is with the big three, if he lands two of them than he can come back for that year regardless of how the team does don't want to risk losing Travis or Vaughn because of a coaching change as most recruits commit to a coach not a school ( I believe reguardless of how this year plays out Tyus is going to Duke with his buddy Okafor hope I'm wrong)
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This is similar to my flow chart, except that if they get to the Round of 32 and get one of the Big Three, it'll buy him more time in my book. Then the flow chart goes down to how well his '13-'14 team does. It might be hoping against hope based on what we've seen so far, but would it be unreasonable to demand that one of his teams OVERACHIEVES at that point?

Part of where I come from is still trying to understand how a coach with a hall-of-fame resume could exhibit so many shortcomings and field such disappointing basketball. I keep thinking that there has to be a better coach in there somewhere fighting to get out.
 

I've been questioning Tubby for 2 or 3 years now. But I won't set a concrete standard at this time, and will wait till the end of the season. We could have a positive end or a negative end and nothing will happen during the season.

Having said that I have seen too many disturbing trends/red flags.

The seemingly lack of a half-court offense.
The inability to cover 3pt shooters.
The strange substitution patterns.
The players that transfer and seem to do well elsewhere.
The lack of depth. Mostly pertaining to this year I guess.
The inability to recruit any true pgs.
The team doesn't seem to improve during the year.
Tubby calling out players in the media.
Rumors every year of Tubby going to another school and him not putting a stop to the stories.
Tubby and the players looking disinterested during many games.
Many blown leads late in the game.
The players so often just don't seem to be playing with confidence.
The fact that Tubby has never finished above 500 and never above 6th place in conference.

I will say if we miss the big dance or lose the first tournament game, it will be time to make a change. Of course this depends upon the ability to come up with 2.5 mill.

I guess I am setting a bar. We'll see what happens.
 

station19 said:
I've been questioning Tubby for 2 or 3 years now. But I won't set a concrete standard at this time, and will wait till the end of the season. We could have a positive end or a negative end and nothing will happen during the season.

Having said that I have seen too many disturbing trends/red flags.

The seemingly lack of a half-court offense.
The inability to cover 3pt shooters.
The strange substitution patterns.
The players that transfer and seem to do well elsewhere.
The lack of depth. Mostly pertaining to this year I guess.
The inability to recruit any true pgs.
The team doesn't seem to improve during the year.
Tubby calling out players in the media.
Rumors every year of Tubby going to another school and him not putting a stop to the stories.
Tubby and the players looking disinterested during many games.
Many blown leads late in the game.
The players so often just don't seem to be playing with confidence.
The fact that Tubby has never finished above 500 and never above 6th place in conference.

I will say if we miss the big dance or lose the first tournament game, it will be time to make a change. Of course this depends upon the ability to come up with 2.5 mill.

I guess I am setting a bar. We'll see what happens.
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I have offered to meet you at a bar in Fungus Falls, and you always have an excuse. How can we set a bar if you won't meet me in a bar?
 

Saber said:
I really don't care what else happens this season. Fire Tubby.
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If we end up escaping the season with a 10-8 Big Ten record and a Sweet Sixteen appearance, I think this stance would be pretty difficult to support. I don't guarantee that that will happen by any means, but it absolutely could. Sure it might be a little disappointing if you were hoping for 12-6 or better coming into this season, but it wouldn't a be a train wreck of a season. Others mentioned earlier, you probably shouldn't fire him after his best season.
tinyarch said:
Two years ago. It became painfully clear during the Hoffarber years that Tubby had little clue on devising an offense that would isolate the weaknesses of opposing teams and create open looks for his best shooters. Tubby will not change at this point and it ensures us that the Gophers will never finish above the middle of the conference. I shook my head when Teague gave Tubby a contract extension. This should be the end of the Tubby era at the end of this season irregardless of whether this specific team gets a hot streak in March.
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tikited said:
This was it for me as well. It doesn't matter though as we could miss the tourney and Tubby would be back. If Tubby is gone in the next two years it will be on his own imo.
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I don't understand this at all. If Jerry Kill went 3-5, 4-4, 4-4, and 2-6 (with his 4th string quarterback) in the Big Ten with 3 bowl appearances in his first four years, would you fire him? Hell no. Sure basketball has a little bit of more recent success than football, but all that means is that our last winning Big Ten basketball record was 8 years ago instead of 10 for football.

If you fired Tubby then, you'd be firing him almost entirely based on about a month and a half of bad basketball. We lost 10 of our last 11 games in Tubby's fourth season, which sucks, but other than that there would have been pretty much no good reason to fire him. He got a 7 win team to 20 wins in his first season. He made the tournament in his second season. He made the tournament again in his third season with his two best players suspended for the season. If you say having Royce and Trevor on the floor is worth just two more points a game, that would have upped the regular season conference record from 9-9 to 13-5. With those two, we could have very realistically won the Big Ten. Not to mention that in his third season he beat more Big Ten teams than he lost to. For whatever reason, no one counts our Big Ten tourney run that year in Tubby's Big Ten record, which puts the team at 12-10. In 2010-11, we made it into the top 15 and had already beaten a top 10 conference opponent before we lost Nolen and Joseph and the wheels came off.

TL;DR Firing Tubby after the 2010-11 season would have been completely ridiculous. Outside of the bad skid to end the 2010-11 season, there was nothing to warrant his firing at that time.
 

@Northwestern this team started to play like all the other Tubby teams at Minnesota, they haven't recovered since, the only bright spot has been the Nebraska game, I don't hold much hope in making the tournament at this point.
 

station19 said:
I've been questioning Tubby for 2 or 3 years now. But I won't set a concrete standard at this time, and will wait till the end of the season. We could have a positive end or a negative end and nothing will happen during the season.

Having said that I have seen too many disturbing trends/red flags.

The seemingly lack of a half-court offense.
The inability to cover 3pt shooters.
The strange substitution patterns.
The players that transfer and seem to do well elsewhere.
The lack of depth. Mostly pertaining to this year I guess.
The inability to recruit any true pgs.
The team doesn't seem to improve during the year.
Tubby calling out players in the media.
Rumors every year of Tubby going to another school and him not putting a stop to the stories.
Tubby and the players looking disinterested during many games.
Many blown leads late in the game.
The players so often just don't seem to be playing with confidence.
The fact that Tubby has never finished above 500 and never above 6th place in conference.

I will say if we miss the big dance or lose the first tournament game, it will be time to make a change. Of course this depends upon the ability to come up with 2.5 mill.

I guess I am setting a bar. We'll see what happens.
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I think you sum things up succinctly. The team needs to win 5 of their last 7 games, win 2 tournament games and get 2 of the Minnesota juniors for me to think he deserves to come back. My only concern is that if he goes after this season getting any of the 3 Minnesota juniors becomes even less likely.
 

i can't remember the exact date but it was the first time he threw the players completely under the bus and took no responsibility whatsoever--so that was about 3 years ago. The first time I verbalized it t anyone was this year after Northwestern when I told a buddy I was ok with it getting worse if it meant Orlando would be fired so we can move on with someone young and energetic. SO if they do keep him I home they shake up the staff enough so that we can see an heir-apparent to look forward to while Tubby sleepwalks through $6 million more in salary
 

gopherMD said:
I think you sum things up succinctly. The team needs to win 5 of their last 7 games, win 2 tournament games and get 2 of the Minnesota juniors for me to think he deserves to come back. My only concern is that if he goes after this season getting any of the 3 Minnesota juniors becomes even less likely.
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I disagree!

I think those juniors in the class of 2014 are hoping Tubby gets axed. I imagine they don't wanna play for a coach that has seen NBA Lottery Potential players (Williams, Sampson) not developed and stagnating.

Making a change will only enhance the chances of keeping them.
 


NBA Lottery Potential players (Williams, Sampson) ?????? In whose minds? Oh, please, stop -- you're killin' me.

Ralph was a swing and a miss from day 1 -- he hasn't even developed into a D-League player. (didn't you feel sorry for his dad agonizing in the stands watching III play?) And Rodney has hardly developed as a player in the last three years as a starter, still cant hit FTs or a 10 foot jumper. Neither has the drive to go out and try to dominate a game, they both stand around and watch. Not what you expect from your leaders.

If you're not getting the top tier talent, you've gotta get guys who have the desire to get better -- mentally tough. Not sure we're getting many of those kids.
 

let's turn this around- at what point does Tubby realize he is in the same point he was at Kentucky and quit? He has done it before, what is his next step down? UNC-Asheville or High Point might sound more comfortable for a few years and then he can till have Saul on his staff
 

This has been a frustrating month of basketball. If the gophers don't beat WI this board is going to blow up.
 

Cayman said:
If we end up escaping the season with a 10-8 Big Ten record and a Sweet Sixteen appearance, I think this stance would be pretty difficult to support. I don't guarantee that that will happen by any means, but it absolutely could. Sure it might be a little disappointing if you were hoping for 12-6 or better coming into this season, but it wouldn't a be a train wreck of a season. Others mentioned earlier, you probably shouldn't fire him after his best season.


.
I don't understand this at all. If Jerry Kill went 3-5, 4-4, 4-4, and 2-6 (with his 4th string quarterback) in the Big Ten with 3 bowl appearances in his first four years, would you fire him? Hell no. Sure basketball has a little bit of more recent success than football, but all that means is that our last winning Big Ten basketball record was 8 years ago instead of 10 for football.

If you fired Tubby then, you'd be firing him almost entirely based on about a month and a half of bad basketball. We lost 10 of our last 11 games in Tubby's fourth season, which sucks, but other than that there would have been pretty much no good reason to fire him. He got a 7 win team to 20 wins in his first season. He made the tournament in his second season. He made the tournament again in his third season with his two best players suspended for the season. If you say having Royce and Trevor on the floor is worth just two more points a game, that would have upped the regular season conference record from 9-9 to 13-5. With those two, we could have very realistically won the Big Ten. Not to mention that in his third season he beat more Big Ten teams than he lost to. For whatever reason, no one counts our Big Ten tourney run that year in Tubby's Big Ten record, which puts the team at 12-10. In 2010-11, we made it into the top 15 and had already beaten a top 10 conference opponent before we lost Nolen and Joseph and the wheels came off.

TL;DR Firing Tubby after the 2010-11 season would have been completely ridiculous. Outside of the bad skid to end the 2010-11 season, there was nothing to warrant his firing at that time.
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Apples and Oranges my man. Plus, I never once wrote or said we should have or should fire Tubby. I've been pretty consistent with my view that Tubby has pretty much run his course as the head coach of the U of M, but that we are stuck with him. He isn't getting fired no matter what happens in the tourney. I started to lose some faith in him with the Hoff situation and it has only gotten worse since.
 

Minnesconsin fan said:
let's turn this around- at what point does Tubby realize he is in the same point he was at Kentucky and quit? He has done it before, what is his next step down? UNC-Asheville or High Point might sound more comfortable for a few years and then he can till have Saul on his staff
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Yes, that's an interesting subject. When you look at it in totality, quite a career arc. For the first 8 or so years of his head coaching career, there might not have been a more effective coach in college basketball. Not one losing conference record in six years at Tulsa and Georgia - not even a .500 record - including three straight Sweet 16 runs. Then, of course, the national championship at UK. After that, though, there were ups and downs at Kentucky. Still, he was only an overtime away from the Final Four in 2005. Then the arc trends downward for sure after that.

I dislike the Packers, of course, but I watched HBO's / NFL Films' documentary on Vince Lombardi three times, it was so good. What stuck with me from that film was the hard time he had with energy and burnout after a while. He coached in Green Bay only nine years, after which he felt he needed to bow out due to physical and mental exhaustion. Even after 7 or 8 years, he looked 15 or more years older and was clearly showing the strain.

From that and others' experiences, it doesn't take a long time for someone to get played out or burned out. I think Tubby reached that point while at Kentucky and has never really recovered. He did seem to get refreshed right away at Minnesota, and it showed the way he elevated that first team. Do you remember him celebrating Blake's miracle shot against Indiana? Can you imagine him dancing like that again now? I'm not sure I can. Since that time there have been flashes in both him and his teams, but neither has been able to sustain anything for very long.

I do believe the Smith from the '90's is a different Smith than we have here today. I think it takes a high level of energy and determination to coach the way he coached then. He continues to try and do it that way, but the juice is just not there anymore; that gear has been stripped. Too bad, because what I wouldn't give to get that guy and his energy and results now.
 

At minimum, we need to make the tournament. If we do, it becomes pretty hard to fire him. We've made exactly 3 NCAA appearances this century. "Minnesota loses in 1st round, fires Tubby Smith" would not play well. There would be a lot of 'who the $%%^ do they think they are?' reaction nationally. (As when we fired Glen Mason.) I don't think that would help the search for a replacement. So while many here won't like it, if we make the NCAA's, Tubby stays. Those you demanding a Sweet 16 appearance or saying 'fire him no matter what' are delusional.
 

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