Road to Selection Sunday: Even Optimists Wonder, Are Gophers Headed Toward Bubble?

Road to Selection Sunday: Even Optimists Have To Wonder, Are Gophers Headed Toward The Bubble?
By Selection Sunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/225242?referrer_id=331171

FEBRUARY FOSBURY FLOP, Minn. -- I'm too frustrated to discuss the direction yet another Gopher basketball season appears headed, so let's keep it simple this dreary Monday morning. For our own sanity, we'll roll primarily with a "Field of 68" projection this week.

For the optimists in Gold Country, the good news is as of today the Gophers are nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble. Can I hear a "Hip, hip hooray" from everyone?

For the pessimists in the crowd -- and I must admit last night's sickening loss to Illinois moved me more in that direction -- the bad news is if the Gophers' current level of play continues they'll be fortunate to even be mentioned as a bubble team on Selection Sunday. With seven games remaining in the Big Ten regular season, I see only one "definite" win on the Gophers' slate, Penn State. The others, Nebraska and Purdue included? All bets are now off.

So Gopher masochists, it's time to buckle up. Anything short of a split this week against our border rivals means bubble time once again will take residence in Stadium Village. It's pretty sad that it's come to that, but that's where we're at. Tubby and Gophers, you have seven regular-season games left to state your case to the Selection Committee, including four against bottom-half opponents (Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Purdue), plus the B1G Tournament. What's it gonna' be? NCAA or NIT?

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (2/11/13)
America East (1): Vermont (117)
ACC (4): Duke (1), Miami (2), NC State (17), North Carolina (36)
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (94)
Atlantic 10 (5): Butler (14), LaSalle (34), VCU (39), Temple (40), Saint Louis (56)
Big East (8): Syracuse (6), Louisville (8), Marquette (16), Georgetown (25), Pitt (30), Cincinnati (35), Notre Dame (43), Villanova (63)
Big Sky (1): Montana (118)
Big South (1): NC-Asheville (156)
B1G (7): Michigan (5), Michigan State (9), Indiana (11), GOPHERS (13), Ohio State (23), Illinois (27), Wisconsin (31)
Big 12 (6): Kansas (10), Oklahoma (18), Kansas State (22), Oklahoma State (26), Iowa State (37), Baylor (54)
Big West (1): Long Beach State (99)
Colonial (1): Northeastern (131)
Conference USA (1): Memphis (32)
Horizon (1): Valpo (82)
Ivy (1): Harvard (93)
Metro Atlantic (1): Niagara (136)
MAC (1): Akron (53)
MEAC (1): Norfolk State (190)
Missouri Valley (3): Wichita State (41), Creighton (44), Indiana State (47)
Mountain West (4): New Mexico (3), Colorado State (15), UNLV (20), San Diego State (28)
Northeast (1): Bryant (134)
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (21)
Pac 12 (4): Arizona (7), Colorado (19), UCLA (38), Oregon (42)
Patriot (1): Bucknell (58)
SEC (4): Florida (4), Mizzou (33), Ole Miss (45), Kentucky (49)
Southern (1): Davidson (110)
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (69)
SWAC (1): Southern U (198)
Summit (1): Western Illinois (135)
Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee (29)
West Coast (2): Gonzaga (12), Saint Mary's (50)
WAC (1): Louisiana Tech (51)

Last 4 In: North Carolina (36), Ole Miss (45), Saint Mary's (50), Villanova (63)

First 4 Out: UMass (52), Saint John's (55), Arizona State (66), Virginia (81)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): Colorado State (15), UNLV (20), San Diego State (28), LaSalle (34), VCU (39), Temple (40), Creighton (44), Indiana State (47), Saint Mary's (50), Saint Louis (56)

Others Considered (10): Southern Miss (46), Boise State (48), Stanford (57), Cal (59), BYU (60), Charlotte (61), Alabama (64), Florida State (65), Xavier (77), Iowa (92)

GOPHERS NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS IN THE RPI
1. Duke
32. Memphis
57. Stanford
65. Florida State
67. North Dakota State
68. South Dakota State
79. Richmond
104. USC
105. Tennessee State
173. Toledo
203. Lafayette
226. North Florida
262. American

FOR COMPARATIVE PURPOSES: GOPHERS vs. THE BUBBLICIOUS
Below are "snapshot" profiles of the Gophers' at-large resume matched up against the 8 teams I have sitting just inside or outside the tournament bubble. ...

GOPHERS
RPI: 13
Record: 17-7, 5-6 B1G
Overall SOS: 3
Nonconference SOS: 12
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-6
Best 3 Wins/Total: #9 Michigan State, @ #27 Illinois, vs. #32 Memphis (total = 68)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #102 Northwestern)

NORTH CAROLINA (last 4 in)
RPI: 36
Record: 15-7, 6-4 ACC
Overall SOS: 29
Nonconference SOS: 97
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-6
Best 3 Wins/Total: #20 UNLV, @ #65 Florida State, #73 Maryland (total = 158)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (@ #159 Texas)

OLE MISS (last 4 in)
RPI: 45
Record: 18-5, 7-3 SEC
Overall SOS: 104
Nonconference SOS: 249
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-5
Best 3 Wins/Total: #33 Mizzou, #71 Rutgers, @ #86 Tennessee (total = 190)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none

SAINT MARY'S (last 4 in)
RPI: 50
Record: 20-4, 10-1 WCC
Overall SOS: 148
Nonconference SOS: 230
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-1
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-2
Best 3 Wins/Total: @ #60 BYU, #93 Harvard, @ #96 Santa Clara (total = 249)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (vs. #120 Georgia Tech, vs. #139 Pacific)

VILLANOVA (last 4 in)
RPI: 63
Record: 14-9, 6-5 Big East
Overall SOS: 38
Nonconference SOS: 177
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 0-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-6
Best 3 Wins/Total: #6 Syracuse, #8 Louisville, #55 Saint John's (total = 69)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3 (#101 Providence, @ #101 Providence, #229 Columbia)

UMASS (first 4 out)
RPI: 52
Record: 16-6, 6-3 A--10
Overall SOS: 77
Nonconference SOS: 60
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-5
Best 3 Wins/Total: @ #34 LaSalle, #79 Richmond, #84 Saint Joseph's (total = 197)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#126 George Washington)

SAINT JOHN'S (first 4 out)
RPI: 55
Record: 15-9, 7-5 Big East
Overall SOS: 22
Nonconference SOS: 113
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7
Best 3 Wins/Total: #24 UConn, @ #35 Cincinnati, @ #71 Rutgers (total = 130)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2 (@ #132 San Francisco, #156 NC-Asheville)

ARIZONA STATE (first 4 out)
RPI: 66
Record: 18-6, 7-4 Pac 12
Overall SOS: 110
Nonconference SOS: 280
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-5
Best 3 Wins/Total: #19 Colorado, #38 UCLA, #59 Cal (total = 116)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1 (#192 DePaul)

VIRGINIA (first 4 out) -- far & away the craziest resume out there
RPI: 81
Record: 17-6, 7-3 ACC
Overall SOS: 155
Nonconference SOS: 320
Road/Neutral Record vs. Top 100: 2-0
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-0
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-0
Best 3 Wins/Total: #17 NC State, @ #31 Wisconsin, #36 North Carolina (total = 84)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 6 (@ #120 Georgia Tech, @ #127 Wake Forest, @ #138 George Mason, #150 Delaware, @ #151 Clemson, vs. #319 Old Dominion)

B1G ROAD WINS
The Gophers probably need at least 2 more of these down the stretch:
Indiana (5)
Michigan State (4)
Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin (3)
Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue (2)
Iowa, GOPHERS, and Northwestern (1)
Penn State (0)

UPSET SPECIAL
Record: 2-8
Streak: W-2
Last Pick: Stanford over Oregon (W, Cardinal win 76-52)
This Week: Air Force over Colorado State (Saturday)

If anyone has any tournament-related questions, shoot it my way. If time allows I'll do my best to answer. The obvious Gophers question that might be front & center? Yes, if the Gophers go 9-9 in the B1G they're a cinch for the NCAA Tournament. If they finish 8-10, I'd suggest you start chewing your nails as the Gophers head to Chicago.

Where do you think Illinois is at? At 4-7 in the B1G, they don't seem like a tournament team, but they have a few nice wins. It seemed like all their fans thought they locked up a tourney birth after the game last night. They were saying 7-11 gets them in. I dont think so. Thoughts?

How far off the bubble is Belmont, assuming they don't win the conference tournament, but finish the regular season 24-6 (15-1) as expected?

It IS really depressing!

Yesterday, walking out of Williams Arena, I heard "bubble" talk for the first time this year.

How can we have fallen so far so fast as to even contemplate this team being a "bubble" team?

The only saving grace is definitely the schedule. 4 of 7 are absolutely games this team (even in their fragile state) should consider "winnable". The other saving grace is that we still only have one loss to a team with less than an RPI of 50. If (big if) that trend holds up, we should win at least 3 of our last 7. Not a good finish at all, but would put us at 8-10 and I think that's enough considering the margin of error we gave ourselves.

Needless to say, this team needs a win Thursday in the worst way, for a multitude of reasons. Another top 50 win, beat the rivals, stop another losing streak, get fans back on board by winning at home, and get some good vibes going to Iowa, which unfortunately I'm not too optimistic about.

Regarding Illinois, they have played their way back into the tourney. But they can just as easily play themselves back out. They have five of seven left against 90+ RPI teams and we've seen how hot and cold they can be. If they just simply take care of business, they'll be fine.

mcal24 said:

Where do you think Illinois is at? At 4-7 in the B1G, they don't seem like a tournament team, but they have a few nice wins. It seemed like all their fans thought they locked up a tourney birth after the game last night. They were saying 7-11 gets them in. I dont think so. Thoughts?

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Right now if I were peeling the onion and picking teams for the tournament, both are in easily in, but I have the Illini ahead of the Gophers by the equivalent of about one game. More top-shelf wins (Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Indiana) and trending better.

Put it this way. If the Illini go 8-10, I think they're a lock. If they go 7-11 I still think they have a decent shot.

For the Gophers, I change those numbers to 9-9 (lock) and 8-10 (maybe).

From the Barn said:

How far off the bubble is Belmont, assuming they don't win the conference tournament, but finish the regular season 24-6 (15-1) as expected?

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Belmont will be an interesting case if it doesn't win the the OVC tournament. They have some decent wins (Middle Tennessee, Stanford, South Dakota State), but I think their RPI (#20) is a little inflated. My hunch is they'd get in fairly comfortably, especially if Middle Tennessee, Stanford, and SDSU continue their upward trend in the RPI.

The Gophers have put themselves in the position that I don't think 8-10 gets them in. Based on their current form and unless something drastic in that form changes over the final 7 games 7-11 is a real possibilty.

scools12 said:

. ... Based on their current form and unless something drastic in that form changes over the final 7 games 7-11 is a real possibilty.

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That is absolutely true. Trying to be a realist, I think the most likely scenario is 8-10. ... wins over Penn State and Nebraska, + one (maybe 2) amongst Bucky, Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue. Hurts to type that.

SelectionSunday said:

That is absolutely true. Trying to be a realist, I think the most likely scenario is 8-10. ... wins over Penn State and Nebraska, + one (maybe 2) amongst Bucky, Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, and Purdue. Hurts to type that.

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SS, I would like to hear your thoughts about the "why".

Why has this team underperformed?

If, of course, we can agree this team has underperformed to this point.

Good question BB. We're in agreement that the Gophers have underperformed. Thoughts?

1. Sub patterns I quite often don't understand, most notably having 4 or 5 subs on the floor at one time instead of doing more mixing & matching with the starters. Too many times I look out there and ask myself, "Who is going to score in that group?"

2. Players have lost confidence and are clearly pressing, especially late in a tight game. Need to rediscover their mojo. Beating Wisconsin would be a start.

3. Better coaches (head and probably assistants, too) on at least half of the other Big Ten benches.

4. Not getting enough from the bench, other than EE.

5. Inability to handle increased expectations once we jumped out to the 15-1 start. Not sure if Gophers had a target put on their backs after that start, but if that's the case they haven't handled it well.

6. As we all know, the Big Ten is a completely different animal from nonconference play. Opposing coaches scout us well, and based on results they've capitalized more on our weaknesses (get us in a half-court game, protecting the 3-point line) much moreso than we have theirs. That's why as this disappointing season winds down I hope we can still manage to at least sneak into the tournament (sliding in wasn't my expectation). Am hoping playing an opponent in the NCAA who doesn't know our every move would loosen us up a bit, play more free & easy. Certainly we've had better success against non-Big Ten teams than we have Big Ten!

That's off the top of my head. There's still time, but midnight is approaching.

Out of SS's list I think #2 sticks out the most. The inablilty in a tight game to make winning plays. The team over the last few years has not fared well in close conference games. The majority of the time the Gophers are the team cracking and making the type of plays that lose you the game.

I can't remember a senior making a worse play than Trevor did on the double team at the end of the Illinois game. They had been doubling him the whole 2nd half and at no time in the 2nd half did he appeared to know what to do with the ball or it could have been the other players on the court had no idea what to do when Trevor was double teamed. Where does the blame go? Is it coaching or is it the players?

scools12 said:

Out of SS's list I think #2 sticks out the most. The inablilty in a tight game to make winning plays. The team over the last few years has not fared well in close conference games. The majority of the time the Gophers are the team cracking and making the type of plays that lose you the game.

I can't remember a senior making a worse play than Trevor did on the double team at the end of the Illinois game. They had been doubling him the whole 2nd half and at no time in the 2nd half did he appeared to know what to do with the ball or it could have been the other players on the court had no idea what to do when Trevor was double teamed. Where does the blame go? Is it coaching or is it the players?

Click to expand...

I agree about #2 as well. Nobody wants to step up. I really hope Andre does that next year. Be the guy.

As for the bolded, I think it's probably both.

Jerry Palm's updated bracket

For what it's worth, at this point Jerry Palm and I disagree on 1 at-large. I have Villanova in the field of 68, in their place Palm has Boise State.

Our "last 4 in" are quite different, the "first 4 out" more similar:

Last 4 In
Palm: Baylor, Indiana State, Iowa State, Saint Mary's
SS: North Carolina, Ole Miss, Saint Mary's, Villanova

First 4 Out
Palm: Arizona State, Saint John's, Stanford, Wyoming
SS: Arizona State, Saint John's, UMass, Virginia

I'm not optimistic. It looks like the wheels fell off the car.

I'm not optimistic. It looks like the wheels fell off the car.

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Dean S... The wheels may have fallen off the car but I don't think the lug nuts were snapped off so we should be able to get it rolling again...if we can only find that darn tire jack.

sec105 said:

Dean S... The wheels may have fallen off the car but I don't think the lug nuts were snapped off so we should be able to get it rolling again...if we can only find that darn tire jack.

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I think Tubby should know where it is after taking it to the Knee and foot of Mbakwe and Nolen respectively lol

I'm laughing, scher and 105. Inside, I'm in pain.

Anyone know the highest RPI team to not make the tournament?

scher215 said:

I think Tubby should know where it is after taking it to the Knee and foot of Mbakwe and Nolen respectively lol

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Hahaha

SS, when was the last time a team with a losing Big Ten record (or I suppose any BCS conference) made the NCAA tournament? I thought Iowa did in the mid 2000's by winning the Big Ten tournament, and I wanna say an ACC team made the tournament at 7-9 once, and that Oklahoma made it as a 13 seed one year, don't know what their resume was though. Just I remember at the end of last season, after we beat Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, they were 8-10 and there was all this talk of if it was finally gonna be Northwestern's year to make the tournament, and I was fairly confident (but maybe I shouldn't have been) that they were not going to make it with a losing conference record. I suppose if it were going to happen, this would be the year, with possibly us and the Illini making the tournament because of some solid wins outside of the conference, more so for Illinois.

SelectionSunday said:

Good question BB. We're in agreement that the Gophers have underperformed. Thoughts?

1. Sub patterns I quite often don't understand, most notably having 4 or 5 subs on the floor at one time instead of doing more mixing & matching with the starters. Too many times I look out there and ask myself, "Who is going to score in that group?"

2. Players have lost confidence and are clearly pressing, especially late in a tight game. Need to rediscover their mojo. Beating Wisconsin would be a start.

3. Better coaches (head and probably assistants, too) on at least half of the other Big Ten benches.

4. Not getting enough from the bench, other than EE.

5. Inability to handle increased expectations once we jumped out to the 15-1 start. Not sure if Gophers had a target put on their backs after that start, but if that's the case they haven't handled it well.

6. As we all know, the Big Ten is a completely different animal from nonconference play. Opposing coaches scout us well, and based on results they've capitalized more on our weaknesses (get us in a half-court game, protecting the 3-point line) much moreso than we have theirs. That's why as this disappointing season winds down I hope we can still manage to at least sneak into the tournament (sliding in wasn't my expectation). Am hoping playing an opponent in the NCAA who doesn't know our every move would loosen us up a bit, play more free & easy. Certainly we've had better success against non-Big Ten teams than we have Big Ten!

That's off the top of my head. There's still time, but midnight is approaching.

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#1 and 4 go hand in hand, imo. 1 leads to inadequate 4. And the combination of 1 and 4 leads to 2.

I have never been a big tubby backer, but I truly never thought his skills were lower level in the conf. That, however, appears to be the case.

I truly thought 13 wins in conf for this team. Now I have my doubts about 9 wins.....

Cayman said:

Hahaha

SS, when was the last time a team with a losing Big Ten record (or I suppose any BCS conference) made the NCAA tournament? I thought Iowa did in the mid 2000's by winning the Big Ten tournament, and I wanna say an ACC team made the tournament at 7-9 once, and that Oklahoma made it as a 13 seed one year, don't know what their resume was though. Just I remember at the end of last season, after we beat Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, they were 8-10 and there was all this talk of if it was finally gonna be Northwestern's year to make the tournament, and I was fairly confident (but maybe I shouldn't have been) that they were not going to make it with a losing conference record. I suppose if it were going to happen, this would be the year, with possibly us and the Illini making the tournament because of some solid wins outside of the conference, more so for Illinois.

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I think it would behoove the Gophs to get to at least nine wins. We can talk all we want about the strength of the B1G (and I am not disputing its strength), but I still think the selection committee will have a mental block where it just feels wrong to give it to a sub-.500 conference team. If we end at 8-10, given that we have been on a skid, I think we are living dangerously. If you play with fire...

bleedsmaroonandgold said:

I think it would behoove the Gophs to get to at least nine wins. We can talk all we want about the strength of the B1G (and I am not disputing its strength), but I still think the selection committee will have a mental block where it just feels wrong to give it to a sub-.500 conference team. If we end at 8-10, given that we have been on a skid, I think we are living dangerously. If you play with fire...

Click to expand...

That would mean we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Tournament worthy?????

station19 said:

That would mean we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Tournament worthy?????

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Both great points and worthy of discussion

I disagree about the Tournament Selection Committee caring so much about a team having a conf losing record or not. Same way they could care less if a team's won 25 games if they've played nothing but creampuffs.

They DO care about a team's record vs Top 25, 50 and 100 teams in the RPI, a team's SOS, and they care about the RPI ranking of a team and how many bad losses they have.

The one legit point you've all made and that the Selection Committee does look at is a team's record in the last 10 or 12 games. That would be the biggest concern, but all the other factors could make up for this one.

There are ALOT of NCAA tourney caliber teams out there who are playing approximately .500 ball right now, if not worse. Cincy is 2-4 in their last 6 home games, but 4-2 in road games, so 6-6 in their last 12, but not even close to being on the bubble. Louisville had a 3 game losing streak and the only thing they probably lost out on was a shot at a #1 seed. Although a strong run in the BE Tourney could move them up that high. Kansas had a 3 game losing streak. The Illini were 2-7 in conf play and it only took 2 big wins for them to be right back in the thick of it.


Lots of parity out there, and not just in the Big Conferences like the B1G and the BE, but the Pac, Big 12, ACC, SEC, are all struggling with parity, as well as are some of the mid-major conferences.


This is a year where there are literally probably 40 teams out there with an outside shot at making the Final Four and 25 with a shot at winning the Title.


Only cbb fans I know of with any kind of confident swagger to them right now, are MSU fans, and its a confident swagger that they've earned the right to have with how well their team has performed in the NCAA tournament the last 15 years.

Oh, there are some homer Miami fans that are acting exactly like fans who have never been where their team is right now. lol



I think the Gophers have TWO ways to get into the tourney, one is a strong finish in regular season play, the other is a strong run in the BTT, with at least 2 Big wins, one vs a Top 15 team and the other vs a Top 25 team, if not another Top 15 team.

By this time, we'd have wins over Top 10 MSU & Top 10 whoever we beat in the BTT, Top 25 Memphis & Top 25 whoever we beat in BTT, Top 50 wins over Illinois, possibly Stanford, possibly NDSU, and maybe whoever we beat in the BTT, and Top 100 wins over Iowa, FSU, NDSU if they don't make the Top 50, SDSU, Richmond and hopefully USC and TSU and maybe the most important, NW, since them getting into the Top 100 would prevent us from having any bad losses. Our losing to Iowa or Neb in the coming weeks would move them up, keeping them from being bad losses. I'd rather beat them of course, but just trying to see if their is a silver lining to be found in a worst case, we don't win the BT Conf Tourney but we do win 3 games, scenario and I think there is.

So if NW could move up, not too hard to imagine it happening, then we'd only have to avoid losing on the road to Purdue to avoid a bad loss since all agree the home game vs PSU better be a guaranteed win. But by that time, maybe Purdue moves up into the Top 100?!


But like I said, I'd prefer we just finish out 5-2 or 4-3 and not have to worry about it. A 3-4 finish and winning at least our first round game in the BTT may be a requirement. A 2-5 finish would bump that up and we'd need to win 2 games in the Big Ten tourney at least, and a 1-6 finish would mean we'd need 3 wins and a close loss in the Title game.

I simply could not make this argument if the Big Ten didn't have FIVE of our Conf opponents ranked in the Top 15 in either the Popular Polls, the RPI or the Sagarin/Ken-Pom ratings, and Illinois almost Top 25, Iowa comfortably in the Top 50 of the Sagarin/Ken-Pom ratings and NW, Neb and Purdue all in the Top 100 of at least the RPI or the Sagarin/Ken-Pom ratings. This is not counting us, who would make it SIX Big Ten teams in the Top 15's, or Penn St, whom we only play once, who is the only true cellar dweller and guaranteed bad loss.


The NCAA tournament Selection Committee has only left one team out of the Tournament with an RPI rating in the Top 30, I believe it is? And if we get the 4 additional wins that I've basically laid out as the minimum requirement to get in, I believe those 4 wins would keep our RPI in the Top 30. Out of the 8 minimum remaining games we are going to play no matter what happens, 4 of them are against teams ranked in the Top 40 of the RPI, and only 2 are vs teams ranked outside of the Top 100, Purdue at #130 right now and PSU at #202.

Cayman said:

SS, when was the last time a team with a losing Big Ten record (or I suppose any BCS conference) made the NCAA tournament?

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Recent examples of below .500 BCS schools receiving at-larges are 8-10 UConn last season, 7-9 Georgia Tech in 2010, and 8-10 Arizona in 2008. It's noteworthy all three had RPIs in the 30s. ... UConn (#32), Georgia Tech (#33), and Arizona (#37). For what it's worth, if the Gophers finish 8-10 I'd guess their RPI will be no worse than in the high 20s or low 30s.

Since 1999, Purdue (1999), Penn State (2001), and Iowa (2005) are the only Big Ten schools to receive at-large bids with under .500 regular-season conference records. It's important to note two of those three (Penn State & Iowa) helped their at-large cause by advancing to the semifinals of the B1G Tournament, allowing them to pick up at least one additional quality win along the way. That Penn State team went on to advance to the Sweet 16.

Also of note, 1998 Florida State had the worst conference record (6-10 ACC) to ever receive an at-large bid. Their RPI was #39, and their overall strength of schedule was #11 (for comparison, Gophers' current RPI rank is #13 with a overall SOS rank of #3).

Missouri State (2006) did not receive an at-large bid with a RPI of #21. Pretty sure that's the best RPI ranking to get left out of the NCAA tourney.

Joey Brackets updated his bracket this morning. ...

We disagree on 1 at-large. I have Villanova in the field of 68, in its place Lunardi has Virginia.

Our "last 4 in" and "first 4 out":

Last 4 In
Lunardi: LaSalle, Saint Mary's, Temple, Virginia
SS: North Carolina, Ole Miss, Saint Mary's, Villanova

First 4 Out
Lunardi: Arizona State, Saint John's, Stanford, Villanova
SS: Arizona State, Saint John's, UMass, Virginia

SelectionSunday said:

Since 1999, Purdue (1999), Penn State (2001), and Iowa (2005) are the only Big Ten schools to receive at-large bids with under .500 regular-season conference records. That Penn State team then went on to advance to the Sweet 16.

Recent examples of below .500 BCS schools receiving at-larges are 8-10 Arizona in 2008, 7-9 Georgia Tech in 2010, and 8-10 UConn last season. Noteworthy is that all three had RPIs in the 30s. ... Arizona (#37), Georgia Tech (#33), and UConn (#32). For what it's worth, if the Gophers finish 8-10 I'd guess their RPI will be no worse than in the high 20s or low 30s.

Also of note, 1998 Florida State had the worst conference record (6-10) to ever receive an at-large bid. Their RPI was #39, and their overall strength of schedule was #11 (for comparison, Gophers' current RPI rank is #13 with a SOS rank of #3).

Missouri State (2006) did not receive an at-large bid with a RPI of #21. Pretty sure that's the best RPI ranking to get left out of the NCAA tourney.

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The Gophers are sitting rather pretty for a berth if they beat the 90+ RPI squads left on the schedule (@Iowa, v. PSU, @Neb, @Purdue), as that would obviously put us at 9-9 in conference and that should be plenty IMO. The problem is, 3 of those 4 are on the road, and we all know how that can go for us. So say they slip up and lose to Iowa. They can make that up by beating Wisconsin at home, or for sure if they beat IU at home. This Illinois loss was just so damaging, it put them in a tough spot now with only really one "sure" win (at home against PSU) on the schedule. Any road game IMO is a wild card, and our other two home games are rather challenging.

Let's just beat Becky and go from there. I know I'd feel a whole lot better about things with a win Thursday, and I'm sure the entire program would.

This Northwestern and Iowa losses will ultimately be our undoing I'm afraid. If this team was sitting at 7-4 where they should be, and only needing to beat Penn State at home and needing to beat one of Iowa, Nebraska, and Purdue to lock up a 7ish seed, we'd all be might happy, but we are not.

From the Barn said:

This Northwestern and Iowa losses will ultimately be our undoing I'm afraid. If this team was sitting at 7-4 where they should be, and only needing to beat Penn State at home and needing to beat one of Iowa, Nebraska, and Purdue to lock up a 7ish seed, we'd all be might happy, but we are not.

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I think you mean Illinois.
I agree with you. You either have to win the games you are supposed to or you have win some games you are not supposed to - otherwise we all end up unhappy. We don't have any "not supposed to" in our column yet.