Momentum grinds to a halt

I retired after coaching high school basketball for 32 years, regrettably something not many coaches do anymore (the 32 years part, not the retiring.) I realize that there is a lot that goes on during a game that we don't always see from the stands. Coach Smith has had a very good career, and I don't assume to know as much as he does about the game especially at the college level. But at any level, you do what works and discard what doesn't. I watch a lot of college games, including Mizzou games since I moved from Minnesota to Missouri. There is not another coach out there that I see who gets five substitutes into the game together as early in the game as Coach Smith does, if at all. I can see two possible rationales for doing so. 1) To keep your starters fresh for late in the game. This doesn't seem to be working since the Gophers don't seem to be steamrolling other teams late in the game. 2) You are legitimately ten players deep. This is obviously not the case since the second group struggles to score. We have jumped out to early leads and then let them dwindle while the starters sit on the bench. Nearly every other coach out there will rest his starters 2 or 3 at a time leaving someone in the game who can still score points. This substitution pattern is killing our momentum. Doesn't anyone on Coach Smith's staff analyze stats? It is really time at this point in the season to shorten the bench.

Good take. This has driven me (and virtually everyone else) nuts for a long time. I'm not even against playing 10 guys. He can easily achieve the amount of minutes each guy is currently getting without having all five subs in at one time. Unless there is an injury, foul trouble or it's a blowout, at least two starters should be in the game at all times if you ask me.

Missourigopherfan said:

I retired after coaching high school basketball for 32 years, regrettably something not many coaches do anymore (the 32 years part, not the retiring.) I realize that there is a lot that goes on during a game that we don't always see from the stands. Coach Smith has had a very good career, and I don't assume to know as much as he does about the game especially at the college level. But at any level, you do what works and discard what doesn't. I watch a lot of college games, including Mizzou games since I moved from Minnesota to Missouri. There is not another coach out there that I see who gets five substitutes into the game together as early in the game as Coach Smith does, if at all. I can see two possible rationales for doing so. 1) To keep your starters fresh for late in the game. This doesn't seem to be working since the Gophers don't seem to be steamrolling other teams late in the game. 2) You are legitimately ten players deep. This is obviously not the case since the second group struggles to score. We have jumped out to early leads and then let them dwindle while the starters sit on the bench. Nearly every other coach out there will rest his starters 2 or 3 at a time leaving someone in the game who can still score points. This substitution pattern is killing our momentum. Doesn't anyone on Coach Smith's staff analyze stats? It is really time at this point in the season to shorten the bench.

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+1

Missourigopherfan said:

I retired after coaching high school basketball for 32 years, regrettably something not many coaches do anymore (the 32 years part, not the retiring.) I realize that there is a lot that goes on during a game that we don't always see from the stands. Coach Smith has had a very good career, and I don't assume to know as much as he does about the game especially at the college level. But at any level, you do what works and discard what doesn't. I watch a lot of college games, including Mizzou games since I moved from Minnesota to Missouri. There is not another coach out there that I see who gets five substitutes into the game together as early in the game as Coach Smith does, if at all. I can see two possible rationales for doing so. 1) To keep your starters fresh for late in the game. This doesn't seem to be working since the Gophers don't seem to be steamrolling other teams late in the game. 2) You are legitimately ten players deep. This is obviously not the case since the second group struggles to score. We have jumped out to early leads and then let them dwindle while the starters sit on the bench. Nearly every other coach out there will rest his starters 2 or 3 at a time leaving someone in the game who can still score points. This substitution pattern is killing our momentum. Doesn't anyone on Coach Smith's staff analyze stats? It is really time at this point in the season to shorten the bench.

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Yesterday's game was the worst yet. Illinois was about to lose it's will to live in that game. They were missing shots and we were shredding them on offense with rare ball movement and working the ball inside. There was a chance to put the hammer down on them and seal the deal right there. Instead we gave them a breather for five minutes and allowed them to gather themselves.

I have never understood why Tubby continues that mass substitution. Agree with your logical reasoning. Thanks for posting.

Completely agree. The reason why Elliot played well yesterday is because he was playing with 4 starters. One would think that Elliot, among the other reserves, are going to play better when there is at least 2 to 3 starters on the floor. Welch also plays a lot better with the starters. I know all of this kind of goes without saying. However, is Tubby missing the fact that a blend of starters and reserves at all times would benefit this team greatly?

UofMdad said:

I have never understood why Tubby continues that mass substitution. Agree with your logical reasoning. Thanks for posting.

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Not only is the mass substitution foolish from a logic standpoint and an output data (very poor output) standpoint, but it probably also hurts recruiting as no matter how well he plays or how important he is to the team, a star player realizes that in Tubby's system he won't be getting more than 30 minutes a game. Because this adversely affects his stats, if he is a sure-fire NBA prospect, he may want to pad his stats elsewhere.

It's my opinion that this is one of the big reasons Devoe Joseph was unhappy here, and why his brother Cory never really considered us either.

In other ways it hurts the second-tier guys as well. When they do get in the game they are playing with lesser talent, and thus the best 2nd-tier guy gets all the attention. As such, a player like Julian Welch really struggles to get open, when he might get good looks if the defense is concentrating on other Gopher players instead.

Further, there seems to be little benefit to a bench player who works hard or is effective. Welch played a nice game recently, to be followed up by a relegation to the 3rd-tier squad within a game or two. Colton Iverson was very effective the year before Tubby relegated him to the second team, behind Sampson, who almost always played at a lower level than Colton. Colton not only got much fewer minutes, he couldn't do anything productive playing with players 7 through 10. It's no surprise Colton was highly dissatisfied, and if Tubby doesn't start rewarding Elliott for his aggressive play and hustle, and quit relegating Elliott to only the 2nd team (until last game), I wouldn't be surprised to see him feel similarly.

I'm not sure what player is happy about the rotation Tubby uses. And it does a lot of harm, rarely any good. Just like Brewster riding Adam Weber's inaccurate arm to obscurity when it was painfully obvious it wasn't helping to win games, so will Tubby ride his worthless player rotation into a relative failure of a coaching career at Minnesota.