Three point defense

After nearly six years of Tubby there is a body of statistics that shows to me beyond doubt that our problems with three point defense relate not to the players but the defensive coaching style. Here's an amazing comparison between Bo Ryan's teams over 6 years versus Tubby's on three point defense:

In Big Ten games only:
Minnesota has allowed 754 three point shots on 2133 attempts over the period- .353 shooting percentage
Wisconsin has allowed 445 three point shots on 1390 attempts over the same time frame- .320 shooting percentage

In the age of the three point shot we are - year after year at or toward the bottom in defending it- in fact we tend to invite the shot. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is almost always leading the Big Ten in fewest 3's made against them. This is just one factor in the frustrating losses we see. It's not the imagination of the fans that other teams more often shoot wide open threes against the Gophers than they get against other opponents.

I think a factor beyond the ball line and forcing outside shots that Tubby employs, is that we do not have forwards who can shoot outside. So in practice people like Trevor, walker, and EE are not used to staying on a tall shooter out there, then in games people like Griffey, who is a really good 3 pt shooter but had struggled until playing us, goes off.

A big deal was made when the Gophers shut down Illinois' outside shooting at Assembly Hall. Some here were gloating that the ball line defense must work after all, but the Gophs did not play much if any ball line in that game - just straight vanilla man-to-man. In recent games, particularly against MSU and Illinois, the Gophers' 3-point defense has suffered, and the breakdowns have occurred predictably when they're adhering to the ball-line rules and leave shooters wide open. A key 3 against Sparty occurred when Andre doubled the post, leaving his man (I forget who) completely alone, too far out for Dre to close out effectively. At that point, Elliott and Trevor were having success guarding the Spartans' posts one on one, so why they felt they needed to play the ball line scheme in those situations is beyond me.

Back to the Tubby thing, the above is an example of the guy's stubbornness. They get desperate enough once in a while to change up their offense or their defense, and it works, but he can't leave well enough alone. He insists on going back to the ball-line (defense) or the high-low (offense) to show that his preferred methods are indeed the best. I've seen this trend cycle through over and over the past few years.

The perimeter defense is good enough with wing players that can move their feet, but it only takes one slow player to mess up the defensive rotations. Welch and Maverick got torched time and time again.

bga1 said:

After nearly six years of Tubby there is a body of statistics that shows to me beyond doubt that our problems with three point defense relate not to the players but the defensive coaching style. Here's an amazing comparison between Bo Ryan's teams over 6 years versus Tubby's on three point defense:

In Big Ten games only:
Minnesota has allowed 754 three point shots on 2133 attempts over the period- .353 shooting percentage
Wisconsin has allowed 445 three point shots on 1390 attempts over the same time frame- .320 shooting percentage

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Wisconsin doesn't allow many shots, period, since they play so slow, so raw shot attempts is a worthless stat.

A better stat is 36.9% of shot attempts against the Gophers are from 3, while 22.4 or wisconsin are from 3.

Teams take the shots that are open, and the open shots against the Gophers are worth more points.

Like I have posted numerous times, Wisconsin rarely helps on defense. They do not leave shooters to help down low, because knowing simple math, a 2 doesnt count as much as a 3. This is so elementary it is sickening. Make a post player score over the top of a man and earn his 2 pts rather than doubling or helping on this man leaving a wide open 3pt shooter. I have seen 6 years of this garbage.

From the Barn said:

Wisconsin doesn't allow many shots, period, since they play so slow, so raw shot attempts is a worthless stat.

A better stat is 36.9% of shot attempts against the Gophers are from 3, while 22.4 or wisconsin are from 3.

Teams take the shots that are open, and the open shots against the Gophers are worth more points.

Click to expand...

We mostly agree.

The stats are not worthless, however. I just checked the year to date stats for Big Ten games-

Wisconsin - has faced 604 opponents shots- 22% of which have been three point attempts (135)
Minnesota- has faced 567 opponents shots- 37% of which have been three point attempts (209)

That's right..... there have been more possessions in Wisky games than in Gopher games this year (not sure about the 6 year trend).

bga1 said:

We mostly agree.

The stats are not worthless, however. I just checked the year to date stats for Big Ten games-

Wisconsin - has faced 604 opponents shots- 22% of which have been three point attempts (135)
Minnesota- has faced 567 opponents shots- 37% of which have been three point attempts (209)

That's right..... there have been more possessions in Wisky games than in Gopher games this year (not sure about the 6 year trend).

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There haven't been more possesions in Wisconsin games. Shot attempts are not the same as possesions. Wisconsin doesn't foul as often or force turnovers as often, so there are more field goal attempts.

march madness said:

Like I have posted numerous times, Wisconsin rarely helps on defense. They do not leave shooters to help down low, because knowing simple math, a 2 doesnt count as much as a 3. This is so elementary it is sickening. Make a post player score over the top of a man and earn his 2 pts rather than doubling or helping on this man leaving a wide open 3pt shooter. I have seen 6 years of this garbage.

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Plus - as the Gophers painfully understand- attempting to feed the post increases turnovers. So it's a double whammy, this stupid defense of Tubby's. With the athletes and shot blockers we have we should be daring them to try and get it inside and denying the threes. We should be turning teams over a lot more than we do. Instead we are allowing them wide open looks at threes and low risk possessions. It is stubborness and it is garbage.

bga1 said:

Plus - as the Gophers painfully understand- attempting to feed the post increases turnovers. So it's a double whammy, this stupid defense of Tubby's. With the athletes and shot blockers we have we should be daring them to try and get it inside and denying the threes. We should be turning teams over a lot more than we do. Instead we are allowing them wide open looks at threes and low risk possessions. It is stubborness and it is garbage.

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Amen. Once I saw the Gophers defending Nix effectively without help, I thought, "We have them!" Then they started helping and giving up wide open jumpers, practically giving MSU the best chance they had to win.