Myth Busters: Does Bo Ryan REALLY win with less?

Donate To GopherHole
S

scher215

Active member
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Messages
6,609
Reaction score
2
Points
38
In honor of playing the Badgers for the first time this season, I thought that I would put a little, simple, research into the common mantra that Bo Ryan "wins with less". Now, my research didn't result in anything too conclusive I'd guess as I am only comparing Tubby and Bo and during the time Tubby has been at Minnesota and only using Rivals star rankings. (Sorry, I don't have hours and hours to spend on this!)

I only looked at conference play and conference wins as well in order to avoid the differences in non-conference schedules.

I also called any "0-Star" players a 1-star as it made the math cleaner. I also eliminated any players who amassed less than 10 minutes in conference play over the 5 years. Lastly, I did not account for any benefits that come from players being in a system/on the team for multiple seasons.

I also did not include this season as we are only 6 games in. However, in case you were wondering: Based on minutes played so far, the average Badger player is a 3.220 star and the average Gopher player is a 2.998 star. Based on stars alone, the Badgers roster is still higher rated than the Gophers roster. This years Badger roster would be Bo's 5th best team over the last 6 years. This seasons Gophers roster is Tubby's 3rd best team over the last 6 years.

Again, this doesn't take into account positions played, team "balance", age, class, etc. Only star rating and minutes played.

So, to start with we will look at player rankings

From 2007-2013, Bo Ryan has had the following breakdown of "stars" step on the court during conference play for him:

5 Star - 2 Players (Additional 5 star this season)
4 Star - 6 Players
3 Star - 11 Players (Additional 3 star this season)
2 Star - 1 Player
0/1 Star - 4 Players

Comparitivley, Tubby Smith has had:

5 Star - 0 Players
4 Star - 3 Players
3 Star - 19 Players (Additional 3 star this season)
2 Star - 0 Players
0/1 Star - 7 Players

Now, a quick look by season. The average star rating is a weighted average based on the number of minutes each person played in conference. The Wins per star category is showing how many wins that coach should get if they had a team full of only 1-star recruits:

2007-2008

Average Player
Tubby Smith 1.848 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.937 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 8
Bo Ryan: 16

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 4.3
Bo Ryan: 4.1

2008-2009

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.971 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.723 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 9
Bo Ryan: 10

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 3.0
Bo Ryan: 2.7

2009-2010

Average Player
Tubby Smith 3.302 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.501 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 9
Bo Ryan: 13

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 2.7
Bo Ryan: 3.7

2010-2011

Average Player
Tubby Smith 3.092 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.242 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 6
Bo Ryan: 13

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 1.9
Bo Ryan: 4.0

2011-2012

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.906 Star
Bo Ryan: 2.979 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 6
Bo Ryan: 12

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 2.1
Bo Ryan: 4.0

Total

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.824 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.476 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 38
Bo Ryan: 64

Wins Per Star / Per Season
Tubby Smith: 2.7
Bo Ryan: 3.7

In conclusion, Bo Ryan has always had a better rated roster than Tubby Smith. In his first 2 years Tubby Smith "out-coached" Bo Ryan based on talent, years 3-5 have gone in Bo's favor.

Tubby Smith's best coaching job was year 1 and his worst was year 4.

Bo Ryan's best coaching job was year 07-08 (Tubby year 1) and his worst coaching job was 08-09.

Based on years 1-5, this would project that the Gophers will finish Big10 play with a record of 8-10 and the Badgers will finish with a record of 12-6.

The overall point though seems to be, based on star ratings, Bo Ryan actually has always had a more talented roster than a Tubby Smith Gophers team (Maybe this will upset you on a recruiting/retention front, but that is an argument for another day ...) It does appear Bo gets more wins out of his roster than Tubby does, but Bo has never had "less" of a roster than Tubby.
 

Tubby recruits 'athletic players'

Bo recruits 'skilled players'
 

Tubby will drag us down just like Kentucky until we have to force him out
 

MNGreatest said:
Tubby will drag us down just like Kentucky until we have to force him out
Click to expand...

Yeah, he drug them down so much that they won the SEC and went to the Elite Eight in his 8TH SEASON as their head coach.

I love how people ignore facts and just say whatever they want even if it has no truthful basis whatsoever.
 

scher215 said:
In honor of playing the Badgers for the first time this season, I thought that I would put a little, simple, research into the common mantra that Bo Ryan "wins with less". Now, my research didn't result in anything too conclusive I'd guess as I am only comparing Tubby and Bo and during the time Tubby has been at Minnesota and only using Rivals star rankings. (Sorry, I don't have hours and hours to spend on this!)

I only looked at conference play and conference wins as well in order to avoid the differences in non-conference schedules.

I also called any "0-Star" players a 1-star as it made the math cleaner. I also eliminated any players who amassed less than 10 minutes in conference play over the 5 years. Lastly, I did not account for any benefits that come from players being in a system/on the team for multiple seasons.

I also did not include this season as we are only 6 games in. However, in case you were wondering: Based on minutes played so far, the average Badger player is a 3.220 star and the average Gopher player is a 2.998 star. Based on stars alone, the Badgers roster is still higher rated than the Gophers roster. This years Badger roster would be Bo's 5th best team over the last 6 years. This seasons Gophers roster is Tubby's 3rd best team over the last 6 years.

Again, this doesn't take into account positions played, team "balance", age, class, etc. Only star rating and minutes played.

So, to start with we will look at player rankings

From 2007-2013, Bo Ryan has had the following breakdown of "stars" step on the court during conference play for him:

5 Star - 2 Players (Additional 5 star this season)
4 Star - 6 Players
3 Star - 11 Players (Additional 3 star this season)
2 Star - 1 Player
0/1 Star - 4 Players

Comparitivley, Tubby Smith has had:

5 Star - 0 Players
4 Star - 3 Players
3 Star - 19 Players (Additional 3 star this season)
2 Star - 0 Players
0/1 Star - 7 Players

Now, a quick look by season. The average star rating is a weighted average based on the number of minutes each person played in conference. The Wins per star category is showing how many wins that coach should get if they had a team full of only 1-star recruits:

2007-2008

Average Player
Tubby Smith 1.848 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.937 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 8
Bo Ryan: 16

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 4.3
Bo Ryan: 4.1

2008-2009

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.971 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.723 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 9
Bo Ryan: 10

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 3.0
Bo Ryan: 2.7

2009-2010

Average Player
Tubby Smith 3.302 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.501 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 9
Bo Ryan: 13

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 2.7
Bo Ryan: 3.7

2010-2011

Average Player
Tubby Smith 3.092 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.242 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 6
Bo Ryan: 13

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 1.9
Bo Ryan: 4.0

2011-2012

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.906 Star
Bo Ryan: 2.979 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 6
Bo Ryan: 12

Wins Per Star
Tubby Smith: 2.1
Bo Ryan: 4.0

Total

Average Player
Tubby Smith 2.824 Star
Bo Ryan: 3.476 Star

Conf Wins
Tubby Smith: 38
Bo Ryan: 64

Wins Per Star / Per Season
Tubby Smith: 2.7
Bo Ryan: 3.7

In conclusion, Bo Ryan has always had a better rated roster than Tubby Smith. In his first 2 years Tubby Smith "out-coached" Bo Ryan based on talent, years 3-5 have gone in Bo's favor.

Tubby Smith's best coaching job was year 1 and his worst was year 4.

Bo Ryan's best coaching job was year 07-08 (Tubby year 1) and his worst coaching job was 08-09.

Based on years 1-5, this would project that the Gophers will finish Big10 play with a record of 8-10 and the Badgers will finish with a record of 12-6.

The overall point though seems to be, based on star ratings, Bo Ryan actually has always had a more talented roster than a Tubby Smith Gophers team (Maybe this will upset you on a recruiting/retention front, but that is an argument for another day ...) It does appear Bo gets more wins out of his roster than Tubby does, but Bo has never had "less" of a roster than Tubby.
Click to expand...

Interesting piece of info Scher. This could be used in a lot of ways:

1. Ryan dramatically outrecruits Tubby despite running a slowdown offense that generates unattractive low scores.
2. Ryan gets 37% more wins per star- pretty significant.

I would agree that there have been some Ryan rosters that were indeed more talented than Tubby's.

This year a look at the two rosters tells me- not by stars but just by looking at player talent- we have a lot more talent than Wisky. So to me this is a telling year- Ryan has had the bad luck pg injury)- Tubby the good luck thus far (Mbakwe back- no injuries). Tubby does have the better roster this year (which one then has to give a tip of the hat to Tubby's more recent recruiting).
 


dpodoll68 said:
Yeah, he drug them down so much that they won the SEC and went to the Elite Eight in his 8TH SEASON as their head coach.

I love how people ignore facts and just say whatever they want even if it has no truthful basis whatsoever.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. The complaint in Kentucky about him was more recruiting based and not getting to a final four every year, fair or not. He had a bunch of excellent seasons there.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Yeah, he drug them down so much that they won the SEC and went to the Elite Eight in his 8TH SEASON as their head coach.

I love how people ignore facts and just say whatever they want even if it has no truthful basis whatsoever.
Click to expand...

I don't think Tubby is dragging us down. I think Kentucky can fairly say that he underperformed. Kentucky being happy with Tubby's performance is like Usain Bolt being happy with third place in an Olympic race. Tremendous feat unless you are Usain bolt.
 

bga1 said:
I don't think Tubby is dragging us down. I think Kentucky can fairly say that he underperformed. Kentucky being happy with Tubby's performance is like Usain Bolt being happy with third place in an Olympic race. Tremendous feat unless you are Usain bolt.
Click to expand...

Great way to put it !
 

bga1 said:
I would agree that there have been some Ryan rosters that were indeed more talented than Tubby's.

This year a look at the two rosters tells me- not by stars but just by looking at player talent- we have a lot more talent than Wisky. So to me this is a telling year- Ryan has had the bad luck pg injury)- Tubby the good luck thus far (Mbakwe back- no injuries). Tubby does have the better roster this year (which one then has to give a tip of the hat to Tubby's more recent recruiting).
Click to expand...


IMO.. One thing that is hurting us right now is how we don't have any height to count on. Mbakwe is our legit big man at 6'7. That's it. EE, and Mo haven't done a thing. Wisc. always has plenty of height to work with. Small ball only works for so long in our conference. I'm not sold on the idea that our talent is so much better than theirs.
 



This is a worthwhile analysis, but it doesn't take into account the injury bug, which has afflicted us more than them. That said, bga's point is valid that Bo has out-recruited the guy we brought in for millions of dollars thinking we would get a few top-tier players.

At the end of the day, though, this is a bottom line business. Do you win? Bo has, and Tubby has not.
 

Bad Gopher said:
This is a worthwhile analysis, but it doesn't take into account the injury bug, which has afflicted us more than them. That said, bga's point is valid that Bo has out-recruited the guy we brought in for millions of dollars thinking we would get a few top-tier players.

At the end of the day, though, this is a bottom line business. Do you win? Bo has, and Tubby has not.
Click to expand...
The years there was a wide margin were because they weren't Tubbys players. The only two players that were 0 stars were Chip and Mav and Oto.
 

bga1 said:
Interesting piece of info Scher. This could be used in a lot of ways:

1. Ryan dramatically outrecruits Tubby despite running a slowdown offense that generates unattractive low scores.
2. Ryan gets 37% more wins per star- pretty significant.
Click to expand...
Those were the two conclusions I drew as well from it, kind of interesting to see. Not sure why/how it happens, but it does. The wins I contribute to his unique style, but the fact that he can get highly rated recruits to play it is impressive to me.
Bad Gopher said:
This is a worthwhile analysis, but it doesn't take into account the injury bug, which has afflicted us more than them. That said, bga's point is valid that Bo has out-recruited the guy we brought in for millions of dollars thinking we would get a few top-tier players.

At the end of the day, though, this is a bottom line business. Do you win? Bo has, and Tubby has not.
Click to expand...
Johnnyboy18 said:
The years there was a wide margin were because they weren't Tubbys players. The only two players that were 0 stars were Chip and Mav and Oto.
Click to expand...
That is the interesting part. Tubby did his best coaching job with Monson’s players, he really did more with less when compared to Bo with those guys. He has not coached as well with his own players.

The injury/deferrals issue is why I looked specifically at minutes played and not just on the roster. That is a big reason why Tubby has a lower star level than Bo as well I think. I have a feeling adding 2 years or so of Royce White (Tubby’s only 5 star recruit) would swing that rating. I’d assume it would also swing wins though too. Same with 4 star Devoe Joseph.
The one aspect of injury that cannot be accounted for is position. Losing Al and Devoe doesn’t take into account that two PG’s were lost, only that you had a 3 star and a 4 star play little/no minutes in conference. It somewhat comes through in that you have Mav replacing them, but when you move a 2-guard to the point that is unaccounted for. It is just a 3-star replacing a 3-4 star.
 




Tubby has done remarkably well at all four of his jobs with holdover players. He didn't stick around long enough at Tulsa or Georgia to test his staying power, but at both Kentucky and Minnesota it has tended to stagnate on him to certain extents.
 

The five star rating system that these sites give players is as accurate as the web in general. It isn't kept current, rarely is ever updated, doesn't look at all players in equal time and breadth, nor has it ever given a kid a scholarship. These websites are not up to date nor are they precise due to the volume of players and lack of time, as well as the people surrounding these kids who try and hype them up for reasons other than the best interests of the schools. Many of these evaluators jump all over each other to hype what others have hyped without ever seeing kids. Want good insight as to how good a player is, easy, which coaches and programs are actively recruiting a kid in the summer and fall their senior year. The great coaches know what they want and can identify what they see on the court. They don't need a hype site to tell them what is a good player. Unfortunately getting accurate information about this is difficult. Furthermore these websites don't do a good job tracking how a kid improves, tell people if kids plateau, or top out at an early age. The star rating I find laughable, I give it a one out of five stars.
 

Wisconsin basketball, two words, boring and lay ups. Give me Tubby and our boys, you can keep Ryan. IT'S ON! Oh yeah we have better fans too!
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom