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Go Gophers Rah
12-01-2008, 08:26 AM
I spent some time looking at the stats and I found a 100% correlation of Wins/Losses to a single stat; our opponents rush defense. a 100% correlation is a rare thing and I challenge anyone else to find a more telling single statistic than this one:

Rush Defense Ranking (and performance against)
#10 Iowa (55 point loss)
#20 Ohio State (13 point loss)
#38 Northwestern (7 point loss)
#46 Wisconsin (3 point loss)
#49 Michigan (23 point loss)
#59 Northern Illinois (4 point win)
#78 Illinois (7 point win)
#84 Bowling Green State (25 point win)
#93 Indiana (9 point win)
#94 Purdue (11 point win)
#98 Florida Atlantic (34 point win)

Really, the only anomalies are that we lost so badly to Michigan and that we beat BGSU so badly.

Based solely on this stat, here's how our possible bowl opponents rank:

Potential Bowl Opponents Rush Defense Ranking:
#19 Virginia Tech (Champs)
#22 Georgia Tech (Champs)
#35 Kansas (Insight)
#36 Florida State (Champs)

Their overall defense, however, looks like this:
#6 Virginia Tech
#13 Florida State
#22 Georgia Tech
#96 Kansas

I really don't think that the Motor City Bowl is even a remote chance anymore, so I didn't put Ball State (#67 run defense and #58 overall) in the mix.

So, I hope that Wisconsin is unsuccesful in convincing the Champs Sports Bowl to pass them over (as has been rumored due to their playing in central Florida the past 3 or 4 years) and that we end up playing in Pheonix again.

I think we'll know in six or seven days.

Go Gophers!

ruppertflywheel
12-01-2008, 10:46 AM
Only problem. I think Kansas jumps to the Sun Bowl with the win over Mizzou...

Go Gophers Rah
12-01-2008, 12:46 PM
Kansas doesn't have anybody to jump. Here are the Big 12 bowl eligible teams:

1. Oklahoma 7-1 11-1
1. Texas 7-1 11-1
1. Texas Tech 7-1 11-1
4. Oklahoma State 5-3 9-3
4. Missouri 5-3 9-3
6. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
7. Kansas 4-4 7-5

And here is the Big 12 Bowl pecking order:

1. National Championship or 2nd BCS bid
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Cotton Bowl
4. Holiday Bowl
5. Gator Bowl or Sun Bowl (complicated formula for choosing)
6. Alamo Bowl
7. Insight Bowl
8. Independence Bowl
9. Texas Bowl

So the only way that Kansas is not the #7 team is if the Alamo Bowl were to choose them ahead of Nebraska even though Nebraska has a better record AND travels better AND beat Kansas. Not going to happen. I'd bet $100 that Kansas will be in the Insight Bowl.

GopherGod
12-01-2008, 04:12 PM
Kansas doesn't have anybody to jump. Here are the Big 12 bowl eligible teams:

1. Oklahoma 7-1 11-1
1. Texas 7-1 11-1
1. Texas Tech 7-1 11-1
4. Oklahoma State 5-3 9-3
4. Missouri 5-3 9-3
6. Nebraska 5-3 8-4
7. Kansas 4-4 7-5

And here is the Big 12 Bowl pecking order:

1. National Championship or 2nd BCS bid
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Cotton Bowl
4. Holiday Bowl
5. Gator Bowl or Sun Bowl (complicated formula for choosing)
6. Alamo Bowl
7. Insight Bowl
8. Independence Bowl
9. Texas Bowl

So the only way that Kansas is not the #7 team is if the Alamo Bowl were to choose them ahead of Nebraska even though Nebraska has a better record AND travels better AND beat Kansas. Not going to happen. I'd bet $100 that Kansas will be in the Insight Bowl.


Nebraska is pretty much a lock for the Gator Bowl. The Gator Bowl wanted them or Notre Dame but after the collapse they had against Syracuse they said that Nebraska was their number one target from the Big 12 to play Florida State most likely.