The Biggest Obstacles to Beating Duke

I've been scouting Duke the last week or so and I've come to realize they're a lot better than I thought they would be when this matchup was first announced. Here are the 5 biggest problems the Gophers will face on Turkey Day:

1)Plumlee - He has excellent footwork, fundamental skills and is quicker than I remembered from last year. I fear he'll get our bigs(Eliason, Walker, Mbakwe) in foul trouble and will be a thorn in our side on the offensive glass. If he scores 20 and grabs 10 rebounds, we're toast.

2)Three Point Shooting - Curry, Kelley and especially Sulaiman can really shoot and knock down open shots, which our zones are prone to allowing. I think Tubby is going to have to concoct a lot more man to man defenses and challenge those guys to put the ball on the floor.

3)Turnovers - We have been sloppy with the ball and its not just Joe Coleman. I guess sometimes the blowout games make everybody a little lax, but our guards need to be a lot more careful with the ball and value each possession more. Conversely, we need to put pressure on the ball and get in Duke's face and make it a scrappy, physical game.

4)Tempo - I fear they(Duke) will systematically destroy us in a half court game. We need the tempo to be fast and furious, lots of fouls both ways with our depth winning out in the end.

5)Timing - I fear that Mbakwe and Walker still don't have their explosiveness back and are both still very rusty out there. Hopefully Trevor can use Peterson as motivation and get his burst and leaping ability back by next Thursday.

There is only one obstacle to beating Duke, and that is Richmond.

After that, let's talk about Duke, ok?

Dr.Don said:

There is only one obstacle to beating Duke, and that is Richmond.

After that, let's talk about Duke, ok?

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Calm down. This is an open message board where people can talk about whatever they want. I usually truly appreciate your contributions, but your thread-police act is wearing a little thin.

We have to stop Dirk Nowitzki.

Plumlee isn't going to be a factor, if we limit out turnovers and our guards are efficient we win this game by 10+. Duke is not a top ten team right now and I don't think they will have an answer for our defense. As for matchups, I personally don't think they have an answer for Rodney. This isn't a typical duke team, they aren't a threat for a title this year

lakesgopher said:

Plumlee isn't going to be a factor, if we limit out turnovers and our guards are efficient we win this game by 10+. Duke is not a top ten team right now and I don't think they will have an answer for our defense. As for matchups, I personally don't think they have an answer for Rodney. This isn't a typical duke team, they aren't a threat for a title this year

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I totally disagree...They are more skilled and polished...they are better shooters and play sound defense. This will never be an easy game for us. Best case scenario, we win by 5 by hitting FT's down the stretch...Worst case? We could lose by 15.

I just don't see it with duke this year, I thought duke and Kentucky both looked terrible the other night and I'm very optimistic about the gophers beating duke. My feelings would probably be different if it was February

lakesgopher said:

I just don't see it with duke this year, I thought duke and Kentucky both looked terrible the other night and I'm very optimistic about the gophers beating duke. My feelings would probably be different if it was February

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I can see how you thought Kentucky looked terrible. They were awfully uncoordinated and a few of the players just looked lost on defense. But that's a young team who haven't played a ton together. Duke plays pretty fluidly, and even without Mason the team functioned fine. The fact that they shoot the three so well off pick and rolls is going to be a big problem for us I think. If we can step up and defend the three, which we have been doing against lower-tiered teams, I would be optimistic about it. Unfortunately, it's going to be a test and we'll just have to wait and see...

Agree Moses - make FT's and protect the ball. IF we can limit the # of turnovers, I like our chances to keep it a close game. If not - Duke by 10 or more.

I'm hoping Mbakwe and Mo get more minutes against Richmond. They need to be ready to play more against Duke as I think we will need a lot of big bodies switching in and out to guard Plumlee. I see Eliason getting in some foul trouble and if Mo is only used to 15 minutes a game max we may be in some trouble. Ingram or Rodney can't match up with Plumlee at all.

Keys as I see them:

1. Can we get Plumlee in foul trouble? If we can get him off the floor, we improve our chances dramatically. I suspect we see a big line up early and toss the ball inside and hope for a couple of early fouls.

2. Can we get Rodney the ball in the second half? Rodney needs to be fed and often...good things happens when our offense runs through him. I see Rodney being the key in the second half of this game.

3. Transition Offense off defense: We must turn blocks/steals into baskets. We will get 8 blocks and 6 steals in this game...needs to turn into 15 plus points.

4. Free throw shooting: We win this game if we are 75% + from the line as a team.

Nobody thought the '10 Duke team was National title contenders either.

Never never never never underestimate Duke in these preseason tourneys. Duke has had problems in March but go ahead and look up their record in November in these tourneys. I expected them to beat Kentucky because that's what they do in November.

Those expecting Minnesota to win should consult almost every team that's played Duke in one of these tourneys ( cough lakesgopher cough). Go look it up.

Pewterschmidt said:

Nobody thought the '10 Duke team was National title contenders either.

Never never never never underestimate Duke in these preseason tourneys. Duke has had problems in March but go ahead and look up their record in November in these tourneys. I expected them to beat Kentucky because that's what they do in November.

Those expecting Minnesota to win should consult almost every team that's played Duke in one of these tourneys ( cough lakesgopher cough). Go look it up.

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Well you can watch the game expecting to lose, I'm sure that will be fun. I don't think duke is going to beat us and I think we will win. I think we are a better overall team then duke right now. Doesn't mean it will stay that way but that's how I feel. I hope you don't watch and give off all the negative vibes

lakesgopher said:

Well you can watch the game expecting to lose, I'm sure that will be fun. I don't think duke is going to beat us and I think we will win. I think we are a better overall team then duke right now. Doesn't mean it will stay that way but that's how I feel. I hope you don't watch and give off all the negative vibes

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I agree with lakesgopher I really think the Gophers are the better overall team and think we give them some matchup problems as well. I think we are more athletic and have better depth in the frontcourt and think we can get Duke into some foul trouble. I expect the Duke game to be a close tightly contested game, but right now I just think the Gophers are the better team and really believe we have a good chance to win this game.

The biggest insult to college basketball fans was the Duke Kentucky game. Having both of them ranked in the top 10 was a complete joke. Neither team will be ranked there for very long.
As for MN game with Duke. I think the only thing that can stop MN is Every 4th or 5th game Duke goes absolutely nuts from 3. If they dodge that bullet a 6 to 10 point win

I know the majority of people don't take Seth Davis seriously, but thought I'd post this tweet of his on this game:

Seth Davis ‏@SethDavisHoops
Pretty good one, actually, but must take care of the ball better RT @kvteachking: Does Minnesota have any chance for a W against Duke?

The Gophers have 15 fouls to use against Plumlee (Elliott 5, Mo 5 and Trevor 5). I worry more about their 3 point shooting. I think the Gophers hava a chance to win if they play hard, play smart, limit turnovers and shoot reasonably well. I can't wait to watch the game on Thursday.

If we take care of the ball, I just think our defense is quite good and is capable of holding Duke down a bit. If we do that and we get enough from Hollins', Rodney, and Mbakwe, I think we can score the win. But it's a big "if" as to whether we will take care of the ball enough.

CDH27 said:

The Gophers have 15 fouls to use against Plumlee (Elliott 5, Mo 5 and Trevor 5). I worry more about their 3 point shooting. I think the Gophers hava a chance to win if they play hard, play smart, limit turnovers and shoot reasonably well. I can't wait to watch the game on Thursday.

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why the obsession with plumlee? he didn't even get a pre-season vote:

Associated Press Preseason All-America Team
Cody Zeller, Indiana
Doug McDermott, Creighton
Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
Trey Burke, Michigan

Others receiving votes: Kenny Boynton, Florida; Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State; Aaron Craft, Ohio State; Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State; Solomon Hill, Arizona; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State; James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina; Tony Mitchell, North Texas; Mike Moser, UNLV; Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA; Nerlens Noel, Kentucky; Otto Porter, Georgetown; Phil Pressey, Missouri; Peyton Siva, Louisville; Michael Snaer, Florida State; Jeff Withey, Kansas.

let plumlee get 30... he cannot beat us.. its the 3's and FT's
OSU crushed them last year... wisky beat them the year before..

limit TO's ( including offensive fouls ).
shoot FT's.
defend the 3...

dook will shoot more 3's than 2's..
they will stand around at the 3 point line, get a pass, give a headfake.. if we are disciplined, we will not bite.. if we are not discipline, we will fly by and they step aside and hit the 3 or they will jump into us for 3 FT's..

we get a fastbreak. if we are disciplined, we will make the extra pass and get a layup... if we are not disciplined, we will try to dunk over the defender and get call for a charge.

we will know the outcome of this game 5 minutes into it... if they have no 3's and we have no offensive fouls, the game is ours.

mark it down.

dboy said:

why the obsession with plumlee? he didn't even get a pre-season vote:

Associated Press Preseason All-America Team
Cody Zeller, Indiana
Doug McDermott, Creighton
Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
Trey Burke, Michigan

Others receiving votes: Kenny Boynton, Florida; Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State; Aaron Craft, Ohio State; Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State; Solomon Hill, Arizona; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State; James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina; Tony Mitchell, North Texas; Mike Moser, UNLV; Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA; Nerlens Noel, Kentucky; Otto Porter, Georgetown; Phil Pressey, Missouri; Peyton Siva, Louisville; Michael Snaer, Florida State; Jeff Withey, Kansas.

let plumlee get 30... he cannot beat us.. its the 3's and FT's
OSU crushed them last year... wisky beat them the year before..

limit TO's ( including offensive fouls ).
shoot FT's.
defend the 3...

dook will shoot more 3's than 2's..
they will stand around at the 3 point line, get a pass, give a headfake.. if we are disciplined, we will not bite.. if we are not discipline, we will fly by and they step aside and hit the 3 or they will jump into us for 3 FT's..

we get a fastbreak. if we are disciplined, we will make the extra pass and get a layup... if we are not disciplined, we will try to dunk over the defender and get call for a charge.

we will know the outcome of this game 5 minutes into it... if they have no 3's and we have no offensive fouls, the game is ours.

mark it down.

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I don't get the obsession with Plumlee either, I think Duke needs to be more worried about our bigs getting him into foul trouble than we need to be about using fouls on him. I think we match up pretty well with Duke and even create some mismatches with them like are they going to have Kelly try to guard Rodney? I think our depth in the front court is a big advantage and we really need to get the ball inside and force the issue. If we limit their effectiveness from the 3 point line we have a great chance to win this game!

@SethDavisHoops: So NC State and UNC both lose in embarrassing fashion. Does this bode well for Minnesota vs. Duke Thursday at the Atlantis?

@NdotSmitty: @SethDavisHoops No sir! Not happening!

"why the obsession with plumlee? he didn't even get a pre-season vote"

"I don't get the obsession with Plumlee either"

I don't think there is an obsession with Plumlee. I think the reason he is mentioned is that he is averaging 22 points and 9 rebounds per game in Duke's first three games.

"The big 3 obstacles"

1. Offense
2. Defense
3. Special Teams

Lets hope Trevor can hold up and get in at least 30 minutes. EE will look like the uncoordinated 7 footer that he is and be ineffective against Plumlee. Maybe Walker can help out.

The guys need to bring their A game in all facets and the Dukies need to be more focused on the girls in thongs for us to win.

Well. If we are going by sheer size it is either plumlee or coach k's ego, right?

I think people get excited about Plumlee because of the name and the NBA projections. He's really played within himself so far.. just kind of taking what's there, not trying to takeover games or be the main guy... they've got plenty of scoring options.

I'd be most concerned about Duke's shooting from 3-point range and either Sulaimon or Curry heating up.

The biggest obstacle to beating Duke is to not be intimidated by them. Honest to God the a$$ kissing I've read about this game is enough to make me barf. One of the guys I worked with a long time ago was an amateur boxer and he gave great advice for a situation like this in that he would say "I may or may not beat you but you will know you've been in a fight"

As far as I'm concerned F--- Duke and the plane they rode in on.

lakesgopher said:

Well you can watch the game expecting to lose, I'm sure that will be fun

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It will be fun for him to watch the game expecting the Gophers to lose, because he's a Duke fan, and not a Gopher fan.

Didn't read all away through, but our biggest obstacle is our turnovers. We limit those we have a good chance.

The Blue Devils are always good, but are generally at their best when they share the ball and have a wealth of scoring option rather than a single player who dominates the ball - which is how this team is constructed this year.

Center Mason Plumlee and wing Seth Curry are the two main pieces for the Dukies. Plumlee leads Duke in both scoring (21.7 per game) and rebounding (8.7) and has been extremely efficient this year hitting from the floor at a 77% clip. Obviously that's unsustainable, and according to what I've read about Plumlee he's pretty much been converting dunks and lay-ups and doesn't look to make any kind of actual post move very often. He's not particularly athletic or strong, so if Mbakwe is back to where he was last year he should be able to destroy him in the paint, and there's a non-zero possibility that he literally kills Plumlee with a dunk in his face. The way I think of it, and I apologize for this extremely nerdy analogy, is if you're playing chess and suddenly your opponent has his queen in your space and you know you're going to get destroyed, you just hope to hold on and minimize the damage. That's Mbakwe in this game because Plumlee is really the only post player Duke has and he can't handle Mbakwe. In fact, if I'm Coach K I figure out who Mbakwe is guarding (most likely Plumlee) and feed him the ball as often as possible after telling him his job is to draw fouls. I can see Mbakwe being so amped up for this game that he won't be able to settle down and two quick fouls is a very real, and very bad, possibility for the Gophers.

Curry, the brother of all-time chucker Stephen Curry, has a bit of chucker in him (he leads Duke in shot attempts) but plays more under control in Duke's system than his brother did. Between he and Rasheed Sulaimon the Gopher guards are going to have their hands full. Both can score inside or out and both hit 40% or better from three this season, and Sulaimon is a big-time distributor, averaging 3.7 assists and a total of 11 versus just 4 turnovers - great numbers for a freshman at the beginning of his career. Add in the mid-range game of Ryan Kelly (40% 3-pt shooter last year) and his ability to find the open man (2.7 assists per game this year for a 6-11 player) and if the Gophers try to play zone this game is already over.

The key for Minnesota will be in their defense, shooting, and taking care of the ball. That sounds like every game I know, but it's especially meaningful in this match-up. Duke has won (the three wins: Georgia State, Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast) by being an extremely efficient shooting team, whether due to shot selection, dead-eye accuracy, or a little of both. They shoot 38.4% from 3 this year (67th in the country) and 55.5% from two (33rd), and when combined that makes them the 28th best shooting team in the country. On the flip side, the Gophers are #1 in the country in opponent's effective field goal percentage, holding teams to 19.1% from three (#9) and 32.7% from two (3rd). That will likely be the main difference in the game.

The Gophers have big-time opportunities here in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. Duke is not a particularly good defensive rebounding team where the Gophers excel at crashing the offensive glass, and Duke really struggles to defend the three (opponents shoot 40.8% behind the arc, 313th in the country). The Gophers aren't a great shooting team behind the line but they aren't terrible either, the key will be in knocking down those opportunities for open looks that Duke will definitely give up. The other watch-out for the Gophers is taking care of the ball. Duke plays a swarming man-to-man that causes a lot of turnovers, something that has been a major struggle for Minnesota so far this year. If this ends up being a blow-out in Duke's favor this will be the reason why.