Road to Selection Sunday Part 1 of 3: The National Landscape

Road to Selection Sunday Part 1 of 3: The National Landscape
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/188392?referrer_id=331171

Editor's Note: This is the first of three columns this week, previewing the "Road to SelectionSunday" by GopherHole's SelectionSunday. Today we look at a pre-season Top 25, sechedule analysis and more. Later this week we'll get the first Field of 68 projections, 10 burning questions answered in college basketball, an analysis of the Gophers and more predictions and tid-bits from one of the most well-informed college basketball minds that we are lucky to call "one of us."


Road to Selection Sunday Preseason Top 25
1. Louisville
2. Kentucky
3. Indiana
4. Missouri
5. Michigan State
6. Florida
7. Michigan
8. UCLA
9. NC State
10. Kansas
11. Ohio State
12. Duke
13. Syracuse
14. Creighton
15. Notre Dame
16. North Carolina
17. Tennessee
18. Gonzaga
19. Memphis
20. UNLV
21. Arizona
22. Baylor
23. Ohio
24. Florida State
25. Saint Joseph's

10 to Watch: Colorado State, Iowa, Minnesota, Murray State, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Stanford, Texas, VCU, Wisconsin.

Old Faces in New Places (keeping up with conference realignment)
Belmont (Ohio Valley), Butler (Atlantic 10), Denver (WAC), Fresno State (Mountain West), Hawaii (Big West), Longwood (Big South), Missouri (SEC), Nevada (Mountain West), New Orleans (returns to DI as Independent), North Dakota (Big Sky), Oral Roberts (Southland), Seattle (WAC), Southern Utah (Big Sky), Texas A&M (SEC), Texas-Arlington (WAC), TCU (Big 12), Texas-San Antonio (WAC), Texas State (WAC), VCU (Atlantic 10), West Virginia (Big 12).

New to the RPI (now count as DI opponents)
Nebraska-Omaha (Summit), New Orleans (Independent), Northern Kentucky (Atlantic Sun).

First Year Eligible for NCAA Automatic Bid
Bryant (Northeast), North Dakota (Big Sky), Presbyterian (Big South), Seattle (WAC), South Dakota (Summit), SIU-Edwardsville (Ohio Valley).

Ineligible for Conference Tournament, but Eligible for NCAA At-Large Bid
Boston U (America East), Georgia State (Colonial), Old Dominion (Colonial).

Ineligible for Conference Tournament and/or NCAA Automatic/At-Large Bid
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), Nebraska-Omaha (Summit), NC-Wilmington (Colonial), Northern Kentucky (Atlantic Sun), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), Toledo (MAC), Towson (Colonial), UAPB (SWAC), UCF (Conference USA), UConn (Big East), UC-Riverside (Big West).

Nonconference Scheduling Nuggets
After all the time I put in rounding up the nonconference schedules of all 347 Division I programs, I thought I'd least provide a few chewable nuggets. To wit:

5 Teams Play At Least 6 NCAA Qualifiers
1. Cal State-Bakersfield -- Cal, Colorado State, San Diego State, South Dakota State (twice), UNLV.
2. Memphis -- Harvard, Louisville, Loyola-Maryland, Ohio, VCU, Xavier.
3. New Mexico -- Cincinnati, Davidson, New Mexico State (twice), Saint Louis, South Dakota State.
4. Tennessee -- Georgetown, Memphis, NC-Asheville, Virginia, Wichita State, Xavier.
5. VCU -- Alabama, Belmont, Lehigh, Memphis, Western Kentucky, Wichita State.

9 Teams Play At Least 5 Games vs. the RPI Top 50
1. Cal State-Bakersfield -- UNLV (18), San Diego State (26), Colorado State (29), Cal (37), South Dakota State (43, twice).
2. Butler -- Marquette (9), Indiana (17), Vanderbilt (19), Gonzaga (25), Xavier (41).
3. Cincinnati -- New Mexico (27), Iowa State (33), Alabama (36), Xavier (41), Marshall (44).
4. Florida -- Marquette (9), Florida State (11), Georgetown (15), Wisconsin (23), Kansas State (48).
5. Kentucky -- Duke (5), Baylor (8), Louisville (14), Notre Dame (39), Marshall (44).
6. Memphis -- Louisville (14), Harvard (35), VCU (38), Xavier (41), Ohio (46).
7. Portland -- Kentucky (2), UNLV (18), New Mexico (27), Colorado State (29), Ohio (46).
8. Savannah State -- Ohio State (7), Marquette (9), Florida (30), Saint Louis (31), Marshall (44).
9. UCLA -- Missouri (10), Georgetown (15), San Diego State (26), Long Beach State (34), Texas (50).

3 Teams Play 3 Games vs. the RPI Top 10
1. Long Beach State -- Syracuse (1), North Carolina (4), Ohio State (7).
2. Ohio State -- Duke (5), Kansas (6), Marquette (9).
3. Temple -- Syracuse (1), Duke (5), Kansas (6).

3 Teams Play 2 Games vs. Last Year's Final Four
1. Duke -- Kentucky, Ohio State (Dukies also could face the other one, Louisville, @ the Battle 4 Atlantis).
2. Samford -- Kentucky, Louisville.
3. UMKC -- Louisville, Ohio State.

BCS Scheduling Weaklings (ASU, Hawkeyes play 8 games vs. Road Kill)
1. Arizona State -- Coppin State (276), UAPB (302), Hartford (307), Sacramento State (315), Florida A&M (316), Central Arkansas (322), Northridge State (323), Dartmouth (328).

2. Iowa -- Coppin State (276), Central Michigan (280), Howard (285), South Dakota (291), Gardner-Webb (293), Texas-Pan American (314), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (319), South Carolina State (343).

Good read. I'm looking forward to reading your other columns this week. With the Gophers strong non-conference schedule, how critical is it that we go at least 3-2 in the Bahamas, at Fla St and at USC? How much are we behind the 8-ball if we go 2-3 or 1-4?

El Amin Fan said:

Good read. I'm looking forward to reading your other columns this week. With the Gophers strong non-conference schedule, how critical is it that we go at least 3-2 in the Bahamas, at Fla St and at USC? How much are we behind the 8-ball if we go 2-3 or 1-4?

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Thanks El Amin Fan.

In terms of for the NCAA tourney, my gut feeling is 2-3 in those 5 games (generally speaking) wouldn't put the Gophers behind the 8-ball. Disappointing, yes, but no reason for widespread panic (which I'm sure there would be from the few "sky is falling" folks on GH).

I'd take 3-2 in a heartbeat. That's kind of my expectation. Truth is, the thing I most want the Gophers to avoid is the doughnut in the Bahamas. What scares me is 0-3 is possible because of the strength of the 8-team field. ... it shouldn't happen IMO, but it's certainly possible.

If the Gophers go 1-4 (or worse), then for the most part all their at-large eggs are being put in the Big Ten season, and then the B1G Tournament. That's not a safe way to do business. The best at-large resumes have at least 1-3 quality wins (top-50ish) from each of the natural dividers of the season; nonconference, conference, and conference tournament.

Gotta take at least one at the Bahamas, can't go 0-fer there, that's a horrible set up for conference play. It wouldn't be the end of the world, like you said, but knowing our history, relying on conference play to get quality wins is a scary proposition.

Beating Duke, obviously, would take a lot of pressure off the rest of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Even if the Gophers lose in the semis and the 3rd-place game, that win in their hip pocket in all probability (assuming Duke has its typical season) will carry significant weight on Selection Sunday. Lose to Duke and all of a sudden we're staring Memphis-VCU in the face to avoid the 7th-place game.

Awesome breakdown as always, SS. A couple nerdy questions that you may have come across in your research:

1) What's the deal with New Orleans back in D1? Didn't they recently apply for D3 status? Seems like quite the change in sentiment.
2) Do you know why three teams are ineligible for their conference tournament but still eligible for at-large bids? I thought those two generally went hand in hand.
3) How many of the completely ineligible teams are victims of the new academic policy. I know UConn is one. Is that the case with the rest of them?

Will do my best, from what I've read/heard:

1) After Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans decided to go down in level. But then a new school president came on board and didn't like the move. As it turns out, the Privateers will join the Southland Conference in 2013-14 after serving this season as an independent.

2) Their conference bylaws (America East and Colonial) mandate that any schools departing the conference are not eligible for the conference tournament/automatic bid. Boston U is moving to the Patriot League in 2013-14, while Georgia State and Old Dominion are joining the Sun Belt and Conference USA, respectively, next season.

3) 10. ... Jacksonville State, Mississippi Valley State, NC-Wilmington, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas Southern, Toledo, Towson, UAPB, UConn, and UC-Riverside are ineligible because of APR (Academic Progress Rate) shortcomings.

Nebraska-Omaha and Northern Kentucky are ineligible because they're new (provisional) to Division I, and UCF is ineligible because of NCAA violations.

I respect your opinion and enjoy all the info you provide, but I think you are greatly underestimating the Badgers, even without Gasser. The Badgers are going to be a very good basketball team. I guess that is why they play the games.

SS, I think you've got Arizona too low, and Duke too high. Arizona is most likely a top-10 team this year, outside shot at top-5. Don't forget they get Mark Lyons (Xavier transfer) eligible this season and that they're only a year removed from being among the tops in all of college basketball (Elite 8, narrow loss to eventual champ UConn). A lot of the supporting cast from that team remains, and has been added to and reinforced with the past couple recruiting classes. Duke has gone downhill talent-wise, as they do not have a single player you look at and expect to be an NBA draft pick after this season. Duke belongs in the #20-#25 range, IMO.

GVBadger said:

I respect your opinion and enjoy all the info you provide, but I think you are greatly underestimating the Badgers, even without Gasser. The Badgers are going to be a very good basketball team. I guess that is why they play the games.

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Thanks GV. Respectfully, there are a lot of very good basketball teams, but they can't all reside or fit into the top 25.

Arizona and Duke

OSUfan said:

SS, Duke has gone downhill talent-wise, as they do not have a single player you look at and expect to be an NBA draft pick after this season. Duke belongs in the #20-#25 range, IMO.

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I agree on Arizona. top 5 recruiting class plus Lyons and decent returning squad. I think it will take some time before they are playing like a top 10 team though with all the newcommers.

Duke will be a top 15 team. Older brother Miles Plumlee was a first rounder while only averaging 6.6 pts, 7.1 reb a game. Mason will definitely be a first round pick. IF he has a monster season even late lottery.. he is very athletic. Duke again will be able to score with anyone, but also will again have trouble stopping anyone. Rasheed Sulaimon is #3 sg and amile jefferson #4 pf as incomming recruits could help here.

top 25

I think UNLV is at least a top 15 team. Moser, Marshall, and super recruit Bennett. I also think you have Missouri and Florida to high. Florida lost Walker and Beal and didn't have a monster recruiting class. Missouri lost a ton too and even thought they have a ton of high profile transfers I don't see them as a top 5 team.

Nice list though. St. Joes ahead of Colorado and Minnesota? They are a nice young team which will be led by juniors. But they were 9-7 in conference and I don't think they added much for newcommers.

Mizzou is just one of those teams I have a good feeling about, despite all its personnel losses/changes. And they should be highly motivated after last year's embarrassing Round of 64 loss to Norfolk State. The Tigers are my surprise entry for the Final Four in Atlanta, as you'll see in Part II or Part III of the "Road to Selection Sunday" preview later this week.

I wouldn't pick Mizzou to the F4 at this point. They've never been, and I don't think Frank Haith is a particularly good coach - why hasn't he been hit for his assistant paying a recruit yet? I guess him and Chip Kelly get to do whatever they want. But I like Mizzou as a top-10 team. They have a lot of proven players on the roster.

It seems like a different Big East team makes the F4 every year. So for a surprise team, I would rather go for someone like Syracuse or Notre Dame - but whoever wins the Big East tournament, would also be a good pick.

The winner of the Big East Tournament certainly has a good track record the last couple seasons. Notre Dame is certainly overdue to do something of significance in the NCAA.

GVBadger said:

I respect your opinion and enjoy all the info you provide, but I think you are greatly underestimating the Badgers, even without Gasser. The Badgers are going to be a very good basketball team. I guess that is why they play the games.

Click to expand...

You can keep telling yourself that, just stop telling us that.