Tuesday At-Large Update (11 available bids)

As of Tuesday morning, we're still at 23 teams battling for the final 11 at-large bids. St. Mary's stays on the bubble with its loss to Gonzaga. For good measure, potential marginal bubble team Siena wins the MAAC with a win over a solid Niagara squad. Big one tonight, Cleveland State at Butler. I'll say the Vikings pull off the upset to earn the Horizon a second bid.

Punched Ducat (9)
21. Siena (26-7)
28. Gonzaga (25-5)
50. VCU (24-9)
59. Northern Iowa (22-10)
114. Cornell (19-9)
116. East Tennessee State (21-10)
132. Radford (18-11)
141. Morehead State (17-15)
179. Chattanooga (16-16)

Highest Remaining Conference Tournament Seed (22)
3. North Carolina (26-3)
6. Michigan State (25-5)
7. Memphis (28-3)
8. Kansas (25-6)
9. Louisville (25-5)
13. Washington (23-7)
15. Xavier (24-6)
18. Butler (25-4)
22. BYU (23-6)
27. Utah State (26-4)
37. LSU (25-6)
45. Western Kentucky (22-8)
77. American (23-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (17-7)
88. Weber State (20-8)
89. Binghamton (21-8)
93. North Dakota State (23-6)
113. Robert Morris (23-10)
136. Morgan State (19-11)
154. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
168. Bowling Green (16-12)
202. Alabama State (17-9)

Locks (23)
1. Pitt (27-3)
2. Duke (25-6)
4. UConn (27-3)
5. Oklahoma (27-4)
10. Wake Forest (24-5)
11. Utah (21-8)
12. Mizzou (24-6)
14. Villanova (25-6)
16. Florida State (23-8)
17. Syracuse (22-8)
19. Clemson (23-7)
20. Illinois (23-8)
23. Tennessee (19-11)
24. Dayton (25-6)
26. West Virginia (21-10)
29. Texas A&M (22-8)
30. UCLA (24-7)
31. Marquette (23-8)
32. Purdue (22-9)
33. Cal (22-9)
34. Arizona State (22-8)
35. Texas (20-10)
36. Ohio State (20-9)

On the Verge (6) -- a lock with 1 more win
25. Oklahoma State (20-10): vs. Iowa State, Big 12 1st round (Wednesday)
38. Wisconsin (18-11): vs. Ohio State, Big 10 quarterfinals (Friday)
41. GOPHERS (20-9): vs. Northwestern, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
42. Michigan (18-12): vs. Iowa, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
53. Arizona (19-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
57. Boston College (21-10): vs. Virginia, ACC 1st round (Thursday)

On the Bubble (17)
39. Temple (19-11): vs. Saint Joseph's/Charlotte, A-10 quarterfinals (Wednesday)
40. Creighton (26-7): 2-2 vs. RPI top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI top 100, 11-5 road/neutral
44. San Diego State (19-8): at UNLV, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
46. St. Mary's (23-6): Eastern Washington (Friday)
47. Georgetown (16-13): vs. St. John's, Big East 1st round (today)
49. Florida (22-9): vs. Arkansas, SEC 1st round (Thursday)
51. South Carolina (21-8): vs. Mississippi State/Goergia, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
54. Miami-Florida (17-11): vs. Virginia Tech, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
56. UNLV (21-9): San Diego State, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
58. New Mexico (21-10): vs. Wyoming, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
62. Virginia Tech (17-13): vs. Miami-Florida, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
63. Penn State (21-10): vs. Indiana, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
64. Rhode Island (22-9): vs. Duquesne/UMass, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
65. Auburn (20-10): vs. Florida/Arkansas, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
67. Maryland (18-12): vs. NC State, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
70. Northwestern (17-12): vs. GOPHERS, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
71. Providence (18-12): vs. Cincinnati/DePaul, Big East 2nd round (Wednesday)

Is your schedule correct that St. Mary's still has another game on Friday against Eastern Washington? That can't be right can it?

St. Mary's vs. Eastern Washington

Yes, just a few days ago they added a game so that they could get Mills some more playing time before (they hope) the NCAA Tournament. I think they did it with the idea of showing the selection committee that Mills will be healthy, if the Gaels are selected for the NCAA. Wouldn't it be something if it backfired and EWU won the game?

Conference Tourney #1 Seeds/Locks

SS-
Where would you put the cutoff for #1 conference seeds that would likely make the tourney even if they don't get the auto-bid? Would Western Kentucky get in losing in its conference tourney? Anyone lower than that?

Essentially asking which leagues are 1-bid. Appreciate your input this time of year.

Potential bid stealers

Even though WKU beat Louisville, I don't think the Hilltoppers are a legitimate at-large candidate. Nevertheless, I will pull for the Hilltoppers to beat South Alabama tonight just to be safe.

Potential bid stealers?

(1) Anyone other than Dayton or Xavier winning the A-10.

(2) Anyone other than Memphis winning Conference USA.

(3) Cleveland State beating Butler tonight.

(4) Someone other than BYU or Utah winning the Mountain West, though New Mexico, San Diego State & UNLV are all bubble teams.

(5) Anyone other than LSU or Tennessee winning the SEC.

(6) Anyone other than Utah State winning the WAC, though I'm fairly confident Utah State won't get an at-large bid.

Those are the obvious ones.

SS-

There was some talk of Niagara potentially earning an at large bid because their RPI is higher than a number of bubble teams despite losing to Siena. Is there any chance that they could still a bid? There is always one team every year that no one saw a threat to make the field but does.

No chance for Niagara to get a bid.