Conference tournaments to watch

Before I get into my main point, I'm going to jump on the soapbox for a bit. I hate the post season conference tournaments. I've never been to one, and I think it would be a great time going to the Big Ten tournament someday, wherever it's held. It's not the actual event I hate, it's how it influences the NCAA tournament. Here's why I hate it:
* Often times it seems that the best teams in a conference, already assured of a high seed in the tournament, put little importance in these tournaments. Who can blame them? Fans and historians don't celebrate a Big Ten, Big East or ACC tournament championship if you get bounced in the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. For teams that have already played 30+ games, I believe coaches of the top flight programs would rather they not grind it out for another three or four games the weekend before March Madness starts. On top of that, I don't recall ever seeing a probable #1 or 2 seed losing their seeding because they got knocked out in their conference tourney.
* So, when you have those top flight teams stepping into the tournament with lesser intensity, lesser teams have the opportunity to run the table or go deep into their conference tourney. Last year's Georgia team is a prime example. They ran through a bunch of mediocre/already assured a berth teams in the SEC tournament and took away a slot from a more deserving squad. They subsequently got beat in the first round of the tournament.
* Not only has Georgia made a miracle run in recent years, but other teams have also, notably Syracuse during Gerry McNamara's senior season. What happened to that team? Despite a favorable seed (#5, I believe) they got beat in the opening round. The physical and emotional effort expended to extend the season by these runs often leaves a team drained and not ready to extend their season much further.
* And my last gripe. . .that Syracuse team went from being on the bubble (needing a win in a Thursday game) to vaulting to a 5 seed. All because of a run where they were playing at a much higher emotional level than many of their opponents. There was no way they should have gotten such a high seed and if I recall they were soundly thumped by the 12 seed they opposed. Top flight teams never seem to be penalized by the NCAA committee for losing in the conference tourney, yet teams can vault their up the seedings because of a strong run. Seems very contradictory.
* One last comment. . .for the lower rung conferences, I don't begrudge them their tournament at all and in fact love to watch their games. When a conference is a one bid conference, it gives everyone a sense of urgency. It's a different story for the power conferences in my estimation.

Okay, the real point of my post was to point out which conference tournaments scare me the most, where I think teams that wouldn't normally make the tournament could bust through with a tourney championship or a deep run. Here are the conferences that concern me the most:

1. SEC-Once again, this conference is a dog, and it seems only two teams are assured of getting their tourney ticket punched (LSU and Tennessee). Not only is it entirely fathomable that bubble teams like South Carolina, Auburn, Florida could win the championship, but it wouldn't be shocking to see the likes of Kentucky, Alabama or Ole Miss make a run.

2. Atlantic 10- Another very scary conference tournament. Xavier and Dayton seem assured of NCAA berths, but it's very easy to see Rhode Island or Temple, two teams looking in from the outside, grabbing one of those berths.

3. ACC-I don't see any bubble team busting past UNC or Duke to claim the championship. However, I could see Virginia Tech, Maryland or Miami make a deep run as I think Wake, Clemson, Florida State, and BC are beatable. A run to the championship by any of those three could vault the team into that team into the tourney.

4. Pac 10-Washington had a great bounce back year, but does anyone in the Pac 10 seem daunting? Not so much so that I couldn't see USC making a run.

5. Big 10-Really, this should be what it all boils down to for the Gophers; beat Northwestern on Thursday and their ticket should be punched, even if all four of the conferences above have amazing, unpredictable winners. However, if Northwestern defeats the Gophers, we'll be pretty nervous; if Northwestern can beat Michigan State again, well then it could be really problematic.

6. Conference USA and Horizon-I don't see Memphis or Butler getting defeated in their conference tourneys, but if they do, they've bumped another team off the bubble as both are assured of getting in.

I think the Big 10, Big East and Big 12 are the three fool proof conferences this post season; I don't see Northwestern making that run and I don't see the likes of Baylor, Texas Tech, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas State or Iowa State going on a deep run either. I don't see any of the lesser teams being able to run the gauntlet in the Big East either.

* Special thanks to Selection Sunday, whose March Madness projections were a nice reference point for me in this post

Thanks coolhand - its always interesting to read your posts. Its been so long since it seemed like the BTT was relevant for the Gophs that I'm inclined to agree with all your gripes. Two weekday morning games aren't great for me so I won't be able to watch the games unless we beat MSU, so it may be that the more compelling games will be outside our tourney. Will you be updating this for the top tilts this wkend?