Posed this question to Jerry Palm. ...

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SelectionSunday

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about an hour ago. He got back to me pretty quickly. The man does good work and always responds to his customers.

As a fan of a bubble-dweller (Minnesota), can you answer this question for me. ... Of the Big 10's bubble teams (Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin), which one do you think has the strongest resume heading to Indianapolis and which one do you think has the weakest?

Palm: "In order, UW, Mich, Minn, PSU."

Answer was about what I was expecting. Other than hoping for a Gophers win over Northwestern, the single most important result for the Gophers is the Penn State-Indiana game. If the Hoosiers can pull off the upset, that might be enough to slide the Nitts right out of the NCAA. As it is I think the Nitts may need 2 wins to secure a bid, unlike the Badgers, Michigan or the Gophers, who more likely only need 1.
 

SS,

You do great work, but I am surprised of your assessment of where Wisconsin sits. They are a 9 seed with Palm and Lunardi. So if they lose to Ohio State, I don't see how they will slip from there to out of the tournament. You are not saying they will be out if they lose, are you? Maybe I am misunderstanding your point.

GV
 

No, all I'm really saying is I'm not ready to call the Badgers a lock. But to answer your question, yes, even with a loss to OSU I think the Badgers are in pretty good shape. It was significant for the Badgers to get to the 4-5 game ahead of Michigan, the Gophers & Penn State.
 

I think Wisconsin is probably in. I know there are a number of people on here who have said essentially 'What good is to to play Marquette, Texas and UConn if you're not going to beat them?'

But the thing that gets overlooked is that the Gophers have way more bad wins than Wisconsin does. The Gophers have five non-conference victories over teams over 200 in the RPI: Georgia State (236), Eastern Washington (234), South Dakota State (283), SE Louisiana (247) and High Point (holy 327).

The Badgers have only two bad wins: Iona (213) and Coppin State (224).

Even with the victory over Louisville, the average RPI of the Gophers non-conference opponents is 183. The teams that Wisconsin beat in non-conference have an average RPI of 167.

At the end of the day, that's much of why the Badgers are ahead of the Gophers in the RPI.
 

"I think Wisconsin is probably in."

I agree with that assessment, as well as your reasoning. In the end, I hope the Gophers' nonconference schedule doesn't end up biting them, but it very well could.

Esposito/Tubby (whomever has the final say on the nonconference schedule) have to become better at "finessing" the nonconference schedule to limit the amount of total creampuffs. For the Gopher home games, they need to better identify teams that will likely be in the RPI 101-175 range as opposed to all the 200-250+ that have been on the schedule during Tubby's first two seasons (there were 6 opponents of 200+ in 2007-08). Obviously, scheduling isn't a perfect science because some opponents end up being worse than they expected (and vice versa), but these are smart men. With all their contacts, they have a good idea of what teams are expected to be decent the following season and which ones aren't.
 


SS,

The problem, however, is that a team that is going to be in that 100-175 range in the RPI might actually be able to come in to Williams Arena and steal one.

I know that finding teams is difficult because of variables including date, time, hockey games, women's basketball games, final exams and other games on both team's schedules, but I wonder if there is concern about playing teams that are "too good."

I have said from the beginning that I thought the non-conference schedule was going to hurt the Gophers. With them being this much on the bubble, don't you wish they didn't have this non-counting D2 win on their resume? A win over a non-crap D1 could help a ton.
 

SelectionSunday said:
For the Gopher home games, they need to better identify teams that will likely be in the RPI 101-175 range as opposed to all the 200-250+ that have been on the schedule during Tubby's first two seasons (there were 6 opponents of 200+ in 2007-08). Obviously, scheduling isn't a perfect science
Click to expand...

Very much agree. Simply scheduling more teams from leagues like the A10 might help ensure RPIs above 200.

The ACC/Big10 matchup could also really boost your SOS in any given year, but isn't the matchup determined by the previous year's record? An element of chance there you really can't plan for.

Tubby also talked about a series with Nebraska soon, so I would look for that to happen.
 

"With them being this much on the bubble, don't you wish they didn't have this non-counting D2 win on their resume?"

Yes. Nothing ticked me off more than when I saw they filled out the NABC "Classic" with a non-DI school. Pathetic, no matter how Joe Esposito wants to spin it.
 

SelectionSunday said:
"With them being this much on the bubble, don't you wish they didn't have this non-counting D2 win on their resume?"

Yes. Nothing ticked me off more than when I saw they filled out the NABC "Classic" with a non-DI school. Pathetic, no matter how Joe Esposito wants to spin it.
Click to expand...

Were the NABC game Esposito's doing? I was under the impression that the tournament committee was in charge, and someone backed out last summer and they weren't able to get any D1 schools to take the spot on short notice? Am I incorrect?
 



"Bad Wins"? Dear God.

anonymous said:
But the thing that gets overlooked is that the Gophers have way more bad wins than Wisconsin does. The Gophers have five non-conference victories over teams over 200 in the RPI: Georgia State (236), Eastern Washington (234), South Dakota State (283), SE Louisiana (247) and High Point (holy 327).

The Badgers have only two bad wins: Iona (213) and Coppin State (224).
Click to expand...

This is another aspect of bracketology that I disagree with. I understand considering a team's strength of schedule (though I would point out that it's already part of the RPI, so there's no sense in looking at both) but then to add a mystical phenomenon called "bad wins" really makes me shake my head. Yes, I wish the schedule were a little better this year but to penalize the Gophers in the RPI for playing those teams, then to penalize them again by looking at strength of schedule, then to penalize them a third time for BEATING those teams and calling them "bad wins" is ludicrous.

Look, I'm one of those rare huge fans of both college hockey and college basketball. And the type of thing I'm describing above is exactly what makes me pine for the purely objective method of selecting teams for the NCAA hockey tournament.
 

Year of the Gopher,

I understand your point. But the reality is that the men's hoop selection committee has been very clear over the past several years. They have rewarded teams that have played challenging non-conference schedule. And Wisconsin won't be hurt for playing UConn, Texas and Marquette.

I would expect for the Gophers to be dinged for their non-conference schedule. Because with the exception of the Louisville, there wasn't a lot of meat there in terms of games they chose themselves. There was a whole lot of soft stuff there.
 

anonymous said:
I would expect for the Gophers to be dinged for their non-conference schedule. Because with the exception of the Louisville, there wasn't a lot of meat there in terms of games they chose themselves. There was a whole lot of soft stuff there.
Click to expand...

Our noncon should be just fine.

As I posted in another thread, since 2007, the B10 changed from playing 16 conference games to 18 games. The Pac10 and BE are the only other major conferences who play 18 games. ACC/SEC/B12/MWC/A10/CUSA all play 16 games.

That means we have 2 additional BCS games automatically built into our schedule that most conferences do not have which should make up for a slightly weaker noncon schedule.
 

anonymous said:
I would expect for the Gophers to be dinged for their non-conference schedule. Because with the exception of the Louisville, there wasn't a lot of meat there in terms of games they chose themselves. There was a whole lot of soft stuff there.
Click to expand...

Appreciate your perspective on this and I don't disagree that the Gophs had a soft non-conf schedule. What bothers me is it seems that ends up getting factored into multiple different criteria. I guess we'll have to take care of Northwestern Thursday, hopefully win another one and see where we land.
 



Not The Greatest OOC Schedule

But Cornell earned NCAA bid. And NDSU should earn one. Louisville can be #1 seed. Virginia is ACC team.
 

The only real problem I have with PSU being at the bottom is that I can't see the comittee leaving them out and having two teams leap over them. One is fine but two get's a little dicey. My thought if they get the axe so does either Mich or us. It's just a bad dynamic that doesn't help us. I'm hoping all get the golden ticket. Our best hope is that all eight get in, we're in trouble with seven or six.
 

FOT,

That's great that Cornell earned a bid and NDSU should earn one and Louisville and Virginia. But that's only part of the OOC schedule. The rest of it was largely rubbish. I understand you are a Tubby fan, but to defend this schedule is a bit much.

I said back in August that not scheduling a D1 for the Classic could end up being the difference between a NCAA tournament berth and a NIT berth. That still may be the case.

Defend Tubby all you want, but if the Badgers get in and the Gophers don't -- which could happen -- the OOC schedule will likely have been a factor.

And you know my feeling on providing a quality home schedule for the loyal paying customers.
 

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