Monday At-Large Update (11 bids available)

Ohio State locks up a bid with its win over Northwestern. The Buckeyes join Illinois, Michigan State & Purdue as Big 10 locks. To answer the question before it is asked. ... no, Davidson has NO CHANCE at an at-large bid despite the "Stephen Curry factor". Also of note: Gophers' nonconference opponent Bowling Green earned the top seed in the MAC Tournament.

As of Monday morning, we're now at 24 teams battling for the final 11 at-large bids.

Ducat Is Punched (5)
59. Northern Iowa (22-10)
114. Cornell (19-9)
116. East Tennessee State (21-10)
131. Radford (18-11)
142. Morehead State (17-15)

Conference Tournament Top Seed (26)
2. North Carolina (26-3)
6. Michigan State (25-5)
7. Memphis (28-3)
8. Kansas (25-6)
9. Louisville (25-5)
13. Washington (23-7)
15. Xavier (24-6)
18. Butler (25-4)
21. BYU (23-6)
24. Siena (25-7)
27. Utah State (26-4)
34. Gonzaga (24-5)
37. LSU (25-6)
54. Western Kentucky (21-8)
56. VCU (23-9)
77. American (23-7)
84. Stephen F. Austin (17-7)
88. Weber State (20-8)
90. Binghamton (21-8)
94. North Dakota State (22-6)
101. Charleston (25-7)
113. Robert Morris (23-10)
137. Morgan State (19-11)
153. Cal State Northridge (14-13)
166. Bowling Green (16-12)
203. Alabama State (17-9)

Locks (23)
1. Pitt (27-3)
3. Duke (25-6)
4. UConn (27-3)
5. Oklahoma (27-4)
10. Wake Forest (24-5)
11. Utah (21-8)
12. Mizzou (24-6)
14. Villanova (25-6)
16. Florida State (23-8)
17. Syracuse (22-8)
19. Clemson (23-7)
20. Illinois (23-8)
22. Dayton (25-6)
23. Tennessee (19-11)
26. West Virginia (21-10)
28. Texas A&M (22-8)
29. UCLA (24-7)
30. Marquette (23-8)
31. Purdue (22-9)
32. Cal (22-9)
33. Arizona State (22-8)
35. Texas (20-10)
36. Ohio State (20-9)

On the Verge (6) -- a lock with 1 more win
25. Oklahoma State (20-10): vs. Iowa State, Big 12 1st round (Wednesday)
38. Wisconsin (18-11): vs. Ohio State, Big 10 quarterfinals (Friday)
41. GOPHERS (20-9): vs. Northwestern, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
42. Michigan (18-12): vs. Iowa, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
52. Arizona (19-12): vs. Arizona State, Pac 10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
57. Boston College (21-10): vs. Virginia, ACC 1st round (Thursday)

On the Bubble (17)
39. Creighton (26-7): season complete
40. Temple (19-11): vs. Saint Joseph's/Charlotte, A-10 quarterfinals (Wednesday)
43. San Diego State (19-8): at UNLV, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
45. St. Mary's (23-5): vs. Gonzaga, WCC championship (today)
48. Florida (22-9): vs. Arkansas, SEC 1st round (Thursday)
49. Georgetown (16-13): vs. St. John's, Big East 1st round (Tuesday)
50. South Carolina (21-8): vs. Mississippi State/Goergia, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
53. Miami-Florida (17-11): vs. Virginia Tech, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
55. UNLV (21-9): San Diego State, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
58. New Mexico (21-10): vs. Wyoming, Mountain West quarterfinals (Thursday)
62. Virginia Tech (17-13): vs. Miami-Florida, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
63. Penn State (21-10): vs. Indiana, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)
64. Auburn (20-10): vs. Florida/Arkansas, SEC quarterfinals (Friday)
65. Rhode Island (22-9): vs. Duquesne/UMass, A-10 quarterfinals (Thursday)
67. Maryland (18-12): vs. NC State, ACC 1st round (Thursday)
70. Providence (18-12): vs. Cincinnati/DePaul, Big East 2nd round (Wednesday)
71. Northwestern (17-12): vs. GOPHERS, Big 10 1st round (Thursday)

I feel like NU should be off the bubble after yesterday.

The goal of the bubble at this time is to be as inclusive as possible, not ruling a team out prematurely. I'd put Northwestern in the same category as Georgetown, realistically needing 2-3 wins in their conference tournament just to remain or get into the conversation. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.

Especially considering, the tail end of the bubble is pretty weak. If a Northwestern or Georgetown can string a few wins together, their resumes are are going to look significantly better than some of the teams (i.e. Florida, St. Mary's, South Carolina) that are ahead of them at this point.

SelectionSunday said:

The goal of the bubble at this time is to be as inclusive as possible, not ruling a team out prematurely. I'd put Northwestern in the same category as Georgetown, realistically needing 2-3 wins in their conference tournament just to remain or get into the conversation. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.

Especially considering, the tail end of the bubble is pretty weak. If a Northwestern or Georgetown can string a few wins together, their resumes are are going to look significantly better than some of the teams (i.e. Florida, St. Mary's, South Carolina) that are ahead of them at this point.

Click to expand...

Understandable. My apologies.

Sorry, I saw SS had another post that answered my question.

If Michigan loses to Iowa

SS,

If Michigan loses to Iowa are they NIT bound? It would be a pretty bad loss. Also, this would increase the Gophers chances, correct? (and not because they are in the same conference, just one less bubble team)

Michigan

"If Michigan loses to Iowa are they NIT bound?"

It depends on what happens everywhere else. Michigan, the Gophers, Penn State and Wisconsin are in a similar boat. ... lose their first game and they bring the NIT more into focus. IMO, Penn State more than any of the other Big 10 bubblers can't afford a first-game loss (vs. Indiana). The Nitts have a nice list of scalps within the Big 10, but I still think if they end up as one of the final few teams being evaluated their horrific nonconference schedule (#307 out of 343) could come into play in the eyes of the committee. That's just one opinion.

I think the Gophers and Michigan are the most similar among the Big 10 bubblers. Michigan has one more top-50 win (6) plus a season sweep of the Gophers, but the Gophers won't have any bad losses even if they lose to Northwestern. If Michigan loses, that would be their second bad loss (RPI 101+), both vs. the Hawkeyes.

Any loss by a bubble team helps the Gophers' chances.

thank you, I appreciate it.

SS,

What are your views of Creighton after their blowout loss in the MVC semis?

Creighton

Creighton is one of my last 4 in as of today, but I suspect they'll get bumped out in the coming days. If things fall just right, even with the blowout loss, I think they have a shot (unlike Davidson).

However, what's more likley to happen is a St. Mary's or perhaps a 3rd/4th team from the Mountain West (New Mexico/San Diego State/UNLV) grabs a bid with a good performance at the MWC tourney. San Diego State & UNLV go head to head in the quarterfinals, so the winner of that game could be in pretty decent shape for a bid.

With a win over NW, and let's say another drubbing by Michigan State, are we safe?? or are there scenarios, where we could possibly left out?



Or could we only be left out with a ridiculous combination of Georgetown/Notre Dame run in big east, Maryland, VA Tech in ACC, or Auburn in SEC, Rhode Island in A10, etc

If we beat Northwestern I think we're a lock, no matter what else happens across the country.

The problem is, if the Gophers lose we're not only giving the Selection Committee another reason to keep us out, we'd also be enhancing the resume of another (Big 10 bubble) team that will then get another quality-win opportunity vs. Sparty. I get the feeling most folks have written off Northwestern as a possible at-large candidate, but if they beat us & then Sparty (certainly possible), they're legitimate again. In that scenario (Wildcats to the semis), if I were the Selection Committee I'd certainly take Northwestern over the Gophers.

When it gets right down to it, I think the Gophers will have played their way out if they lose to Northwestern. At some point the committee is going to say, you had numerous chances to earn a bid, but you coldn't seal the deal. And they would be right, no matter what the Gophers' resume says.

Yeah, I totally agree if we can't beat the cats, we seriously don't deserve a bid. I expect a tough game on Thursday morning, and hopefully we can survive.