First time poster

Hello everybody. First time poster, long time lurker. My post is more about the state of the program overall. As far as thsi year's teams concerned, this game will carry over into any additional games they play this season. Thus, they will lose their first round Big Ten(unless they play Indiana)and lose early in the NIT. I honeslty think this team is really fragile, and this was a "killshot" loss. Since Tubby took over last year with not much to work with, I've been watching the last two season's patiently, just looking for little signs of improvement. I took a very level-headed approach to these teams, not getting to high or two low.

However, next season, I am taking a very different approach. My thoughts;
I think at least 1 returning player will transfer before next season. It will either be Hoff or Nolan. I know some of you may rip me for this prediction, but with the incoming talent and their diminished roles recently I can't see much PT for them next season. He is my top 10next season;

White
Williams
Mwabake
Johnson
Sampson
Iverson
Carter
Joseph
Westrook
Cobbs

Nolen may have a chance to be the backup PG to Jospeh(yes, he will be the starting PG next season), unless Cobbs is as good as some say he is. Then Nolen, Bostick, and Hoff will fight for the 11th, 12th, & 13th spots. I think the most logical choice for a transfer is Hoff. I honestly don't see how he will get any pt, under almost any scenario. So, I predict 1, if not both will leave.

My expectations for next season;

Big Ten record 12-6
Non-Conference, 1 or 0 losses
Year-end rank, around 15th

Anything less than that and I will be VERY critical of coach Smith, and start to question his ability to win big here. Next season you will be able to say this is his team, as even the leftovers from Monson will have three seasons under Tubby's system. If he doesn't win big next season, then it will take him longer here than anywhere else he's been. I will begin to think he might not win much here at all, or at least not much more than Monson did. He will have two ranked recruiting classes on the court, and unlike football, it shouldn't take 5-6 years to see what he is capable of. I've completely given coach Smith a pass, because he needed better players. Next year he will have plenty of talent, and anything less than my expectations will leave me questioning if Smith can be the guy fro this program.

Anything even approaching the bubble will indeed be a disappointment. I'll give them more of a break once they get in the tournament since it will be completely new to all the players.

Welcome aboard. You didn't pick a great day with all the negativity. Most of us see the growth you've alluded to and are excited about that as well even with today's dissapointment.

I think they're looking at Canada as picking up more SG minutes. Nolen will be competing against Hoff and Cobbs. Hoff doesn't have the skills of Nolen and so will only get the minutes if Nolen is failing. Cobbs will be a freshmen and you don't give big minutes to freshmen PG's unless you absolutely have to. My point is Nolen is only squeezed if he feels like he is. Nolen still will have a great opp. Unless he's disgruntled he's in good shape, and he merely appears gruntled.

the other thing to consider, just like the last two years we will still be integrating lots of new faces. We're just now figuring this group out and it's the end of the year. If next year is as difficult to sort out it'll be just as sloppy/ugly, just more talented. hardly the recipe for 12-6 B10 despite the talent. Plus not a lot of graduating starters in the conference. Most teams improve. We might make a big leap and not fare any better in the standings.

Mostly though I agree with your sentiment.

That's my fear, if this team doesn't take the next step next season you know peple will be questioning Tubby all over the place, from fans to the media. I guess I'm saying that with all the quality coaches in the conference, this progam may not progress, and if they don't, as in the past, people will start to lose interest, and that would be another "killshot". I honestly think there will be ALOT of pressure on Tubby next season, especially fi/when the team misses the NCAA tourney again. Also, the Gophers will probably be ranked to start the season, so expectations are going to be quite high. I think next season is the most important for the Gophers the last decade. I think it is, to a degree, make or break for Tubby. And I'm not saying he will be fired. I know the conference will be strong, but at some point this program HAS to take the next step, and soon.

Next year is key, but I'm not ready to start setting goals for # of wins. Heck we don't even know the BT schedule much less the non-conference. My goal for this season was to have legitimate hope/anxiety on Selection Sunday, and unfortunately we're still on pace for exactly that.

SWGOPHER said:

That's my fear, if this team doesn't take the next step next season you know peple will be questioning Tubby all over the place, from fans to the media. I guess I'm saying that with all the quality coaches in the conference, this progam may not progress, and if they don't, as in the past, people will start to lose interest, and that would be another "killshot". I honestly think there will be ALOT of pressure on Tubby next season, especially fi/when the team misses the NCAA tourney again. Also, the Gophers will probably be ranked to start the season, so expectations are going to be quite high. I think next season is the most important for the Gophers the last decade. I think it is, to a degree, make or break for Tubby. And I'm not saying he will be fired. I know the conference will be strong, but at some point this program HAS to take the next step, and soon.

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Absolutely. Minnesota will have the talent to get 25+ W next season.

I don't care what the schedule looks like, I expect NO LESS than 12-6. I've honestly moved on from this season's team. They are what they are. It's time to take the next step, we've had to wait long enough, we've been stabbed in the heart way too many times. If we are having this same discussion next season, then the topic of discusson won't be talent, it will be Tubby. This team will be pre-season top 25, and there will be pressure and high expectations. The national cbball talking heads will have a fieldday with Tubby if there isn't improvement, anbd all the momentum from his hiring will be washed away. I'm done with this season, and honestly don't care how the season ends at this point. I'm completely focused on next year, which will be more important than many of you realize, I think.

I don't agree with the idea that Hoff or Nolan will transfer.

Big leaps can be made from the soph to the junior year. Both these guys need to work on offensive skills (Nolan shooting 12 foot pull up jumpers and turning the corner on screens and Hoff shooting off the dribble).

But Ithink Tubby has shown that he likes guys with high BB IQs and Hoff certainly has that and Tubby prefers to play upperclassmen whenever possible because they know his defensive system. Talent alone wont get you on the floor.

As talented as our incoming group is...starting on this team next year for any of them will be difficult.

25 wins next year is doable if we can find some offense.

Your first post is flat out wrong. Blake or Nolen will not transfer, if anyone it would be the juco who does not see playing time. Although Nolen did not score he didn't shoot or turn the ball over either. His defense is outstanding. I love how everybody writes him off for the rest of his career and that he will never improve his jump shot. Williams and Cobbs will be good but won't get as much PT as you think next year.

We lose two seniors who don't really contribute much at all in terms of effectiveness or athleticism. Coming in Royce White- all around stud, Rodney Williams freak of nature athlete, Mbawke inside banger and Cobbs seems to be able to do it all at the point pretty well. You could add Bryant Allen for depth and scoring. These guys are the difference between some of these close losses mostly White and Mbawke next year.

The returning guys are not going to regress. Our two bigs are freshman. Tubby has a 20 win season every year he's been here. Has any other coach in Minnesota history had back to back 20win seasons? We beat a potential number one seed in Louisville and still to date don't have a bad loss to date. Michigan keep in mind beat Duke, UCLA and went .500 in a good conference. You are basically saying we will lose to Northwestern as if it's a done deal. I'd give Tubby at least a little credit to have these guys ready to play Thursday.

SWGOPHER said:

Hello everybody. First time poster, long time lurker. My post is more about the state of the program overall. As far as thsi year's teams concerned, this game will carry over into any additional games they play this season. Thus, they will lose their first round Big Ten(unless they play Indiana)and lose early in the NIT. I honeslty think this team is really fragile, and this was a "killshot" loss. Since Tubby took over last year with not much to work with, I've been watching the last two season's patiently, just looking for little signs of improvement. I took a very level-headed approach to these teams, not getting to high or two low.

However, next season, I am taking a very different approach. My thoughts;
I think at least 1 returning player will transfer before next season. It will either be Hoff or Nolan. I know some of you may rip me for this prediction, but with the incoming talent and their diminished roles recently I can't see much PT for them next season. He is my top 10next season;

White
Williams
Mwabake
Johnson
Sampson
Iverson
Carter
Joseph
Westrook
Cobbs

Nolen may have a chance to be the backup PG to Jospeh(yes, he will be the starting PG next season), unless Cobbs is as good as some say he is. Then Nolen, Bostick, and Hoff will fight for the 11th, 12th, & 13th spots. I think the most logical choice for a transfer is Hoff. I honestly don't see how he will get any pt, under almost any scenario. So, I predict 1, if not both will leave.

My expectations for next season;

Big Ten record 12-6
Non-Conference, 1 or 0 losses
Year-end rank, around 15th

Anything less than that and I will be VERY critical of coach Smith, and start to question his ability to win big here. Next season you will be able to say this is his team, as even the leftovers from Monson will have three seasons under Tubby's system. If he doesn't win big next season, then it will take him longer here than anywhere else he's been. I will begin to think he might not win much here at all, or at least not much more than Monson did. He will have two ranked recruiting classes on the court, and unlike football, it shouldn't take 5-6 years to see what he is capable of. I've completely given coach Smith a pass, because he needed better players. Next year he will have plenty of talent, and anything less than my expectations will leave me questioning if Smith can be the guy fro this program.

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You have Nolen fighting for the 11th spot and Rodney Williams being the second best player on the team next year? I love Rodney as much as anyone and I realize Nolen has been struggling, but I don't think I could possibly disagree with that assesment any more.

I'm not seeing it. Sorry. Too much of next year is riding on freshmen. We can all see what could happen with the telent we'll have, but experience is just too much a factor. I for one am not expecting dominance until the year after. which means we'll be right in the mix with the middle 8-9 B10 teams again. i am expecting improvement, I'm just not sure we'll be solid enough to project that into an outcome.

I just see the rest of the conference improving too. The only improvement i can count on from the gophs next year is basic year to year growth, and it just doesn't give us an edge. I do however believe we'll be much better off at the end of he year than we are now as our talented freshmen will be integrated much like they are this year, and so the post season will be much more promising. You have to remember the freshmen will be squeezing minutes from seasoned players like DJ and Westy. They may be more talented and still be less productive as freshmen. The talent may go up at the expense of outcome. It's a necessary growth pain that will pay off huge. But I don't think we'll have the big leap in conference record, yet. Plus NC might be tougher.

I didn't list them best to worst, I listed them as the first 10, in no particular order. I see Nolen as a guy who can't seem to adjust his game and can't make a jumpshot. He works hard but doesn't seem take what the coaches tell him and make happen on the court. There is a reason his PT has dropped. Hoff is the kind of guy who does alot of little things but don't count on him to be a leading player on a top 10-15 team. We've seen both of their games and their limitations. At this point experience may make them smarter but their skills are what they are. I told you some of you would rip me. We'll see if you rip me if I'm actually right.

Schnoodler,

At some point this program, despite the relative strenght of the conference, must imporve at a FASTER rate than the other teams. Almost every other team inthe conference has had theat happen to them except our Gophers. Perhaps some would say unrealistic expectations, but I'm tired of settleing for just OK. That's why Tubby was hired, right? I'm finished giving anyone in the program a pass, and I will be VERY critical of this program going forward. No more passes.
I read alot of comments this time last year about the team being better at the end of the year than the beginning. Didn't happen. Another year like this year and I can tell you the fan base(not all, but many) the local and national media will be calling the Gophers underachievers. The last 12 years for Gopher hoops has really SUCKED, and I'm running out of patience.

SWGOPHER said:

I don't care what the schedule looks like, I expect NO LESS than 12-6. I've honestly moved on from this season's team. They are what they are. It's time to take the next step, we've had to wait long enough, we've been stabbed in the heart way too many times. If we are having this same discussion next season, then the topic of discusson won't be talent, it will be Tubby. This team will be pre-season top 25, and there will be pressure and high expectations. The national cbball talking heads will have a fieldday with Tubby if there isn't improvement, anbd all the momentum from his hiring will be washed away. I'm done with this season, and honestly don't care how the season ends at this point. I'm completely focused on next year, which will be more important than many of you realize, I think.

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12-6 Minimum? Michigan State is the ONLY Big10 team to hit 12 wins this year.

Don't care how this season ends? 'nuff said.

SWGOPHER said:

I read alot of comments this time last year about the team being better at the end of the year than the beginning. Didn't happen. Another year like this year and I can tell you the fan base(not all, but many) the local and national media will be calling the Gophers underachievers. The last 12 years for Gopher hoops has really SUCKED, and I'm running out of patience.

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Move to Iowa and you'll appreciate it more.

Dinkytowner,

What's wrong with you? All I've ever seen out of you is to personally attack ANYONE who disagrees with you. Is this the type of person you are? You must not be a very good person.

SWGOPHER said:

Schnoodler,

At some point this program, despite the relative strenght of the conference, must imporve at a FASTER rate than the other teams. Almost every other team inthe conference has had theat happen to them except our Gophers. Perhaps some would say unrealistic expectations, but I'm tired of settleing for just OK. That's why Tubby was hired, right? I'm finished giving anyone in the program a pass, and I will be VERY critical of this program going forward. No more passes.
I read alot of comments this time last year about the team being better at the end of the year than the beginning. Didn't happen. Another year like this year and I can tell you the fan base(not all, but many) the local and national media will be calling the Gophers underachievers. The last 12 years for Gopher hoops has really SUCKED, and I'm running out of patience.

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Yeah but that point isn't next year. When the team is an experienced Tubby team and underperforming then you'll have an argument. I don't think it's very realistic to draw conlusions about Tubby when the team will essentially be freshmen and sophmores. Any expectations about next year are soley based on hope. You're just a year ahead of things.

Big men don't come into their own until years 3-4. It's a tough gig. Talent is more than enough at the high school level, but not at this level. There's a lot to learn. You just need to relax and let the program mature.

SWGOPHER said:

Schnoodler,

At some point this program, despite the relative strenght of the conference, must imporve at a FASTER rate than the other teams. Almost every other team inthe conference has had theat happen to them except our Gophers. Perhaps some would say unrealistic expectations, but I'm tired of settleing for just OK. That's why Tubby was hired, right? I'm finished giving anyone in the program a pass, and I will be VERY critical of this program going forward. No more passes.
I read alot of comments this time last year about the team being better at the end of the year than the beginning. Didn't happen. Another year like this year and I can tell you the fan base(not all, but many) the local and national media will be calling the Gophers underachievers. The last 12 years for Gopher hoops has really SUCKED, and I'm running out of patience.

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Really? I mean, really? Did we not go from 9-22 to a 20-win season last year and then add another 20+ win season again this year? Who has improved at a faster rate than the Gophers? Nobody.

How difficult is it to to improve when your starting point was Monson's last year? Let's be honest, the last twelve years have been VERY difficult for Gopher basketball fans. Outside of Vince Grier, we've not had one single player that I would call a warrior, a leader who could will his team to a victory. I still think next season is so improtant, even moreso than the following season. Why? we will be preseason top 25 for the first time in a long time. People will be watching the program more closely than ever before. For most, expectations will be quite high(this includes the national media). The perception that Tubby will turn things around will start to change if the team doesn't take the next step. Or the national media will start saying that maybe even Tubby can't win here. If the W-L results aren't better next season there will be some impact. Just watch and see.

SWGOPHER said:

Dinkytowner, What's wrong with you? All I've ever seen out of you is to personally attack ANYONE who disagrees with you. Is this the type of person you are? You must not be a very good person.

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Thanks for calling me "not a good person" but I'll refrain from responding to such a "personal" attack on my character.

Dinkytowner

Well, somebody has to stand up to your treatment of others. I don't care what you think of me. Don't think you can just "trash" everybody and think you get a pass. You won't with me, I promise. You are they guy who yells "fire" in a full movie theater and acts the victim when someone pushes back.

SWGOPHER said:

Dinkytowner Well, somebody has to stand up to your treatment of others. I don't care what you think of me. Don't think you can just "trash" everybody and think you get a pass. You won't with me, I promise. You are they guy who yells "fire" in a full movie theater and acts the victim when someone pushes back.

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Dinkytowner,

Fair Enough

SWGOPHER said:

How difficult is it to to improve when your starting point was Monson's last year? Let's be honest, the last twelve years have been VERY difficult for Gopher basketball fans. Outside of Vince Grier, we've not had one single player that I would call a warrior, a leader who could will his team to a victory. I still think next season is so improtant, even moreso than the following season. Why? we will be preseason top 25 for the first time in a long time. People will be watching the program more closely than ever before. For most, expectations will be quite high(this includes the national media). The perception that Tubby will turn things around will start to change if the team doesn't take the next step. Or the national media will start saying that maybe even Tubby can't win here. If the W-L results aren't better next season there will be some impact. Just watch and see.

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I don't see the national media questioning whether Tubby can win here when a majority of our contributors will be freshman and sophomores.....doesn't make any sense. If anything they'll say they have a bright future. I think you need to have a little patience.

This is coming from a somewhat detached perspective, as I didn't see the game today and haven't seen any of the Gopher games since their home win against Indiana. If I was in the States right now, I would guess I'd be feeling pretty frustrated too and would not be happy with the performance of the team, including the coaches. However, I think some perspective needs to be in order. . .

SW, you ask how difficult it is to improve when your starting point is Monson's last season. I'm perplexed by that question-that 9-22 team was comprised of the same players that Tubby had for his first season and many of whom came into this year too. Damien Johnson was lost that season and Westbrook wasn't too advanced either. Both have been integral parts to the turnaround of this team. So have Al Nolen and Blake Hoffarber, the last two recruits that Monson brought in.

We added five players to the mix this season, three freshman and two juco's. Each has provided a snapshot of their ability at various times, but have struggled with consistency.

Heading into this season, my biggest concern was the lack of a go-to scorer for this team, with Westbrook being the most likely candidate. He stepped up in a large way against Wisconsin, but otherwise has been inconsistent and no one else has stepped into that role for the team. Couple that with Al Nolen's struggles as the Big Ten season has progressed, and you have a team that struggles mightily on offense.

Stepping into next season, I think the Gophers will be aided greatly by the addition of Royce White, a potential go-to scorer, and Trevor Mbakwe, who should help immensely on the glass. I see Williams and Cobb playing supporting roles, but have a tough time seeing either ascend to big minutes in the rotation, from what I understand/have heard about their games. There will be growing pains next season-a veteran team can struggle with absorbing a new talent who needs/wants/deserves shots. There are a whole lot of guys potentially in the rotation, but only so many minutes to go around. In that regard, I think it'll be quite a challenge for Tubby and the coaching staff.

I certainly don't buy next year as a "make or break" type of year. I don't see national expectations being that large, the attention towards the Big Ten will center on Michigan State in the preseason with Purdue also likely to garner some attention too. The Gophers did not break out on the national scene this year, so I don't see a great deal of focus being paid their way. I expect a better non-conference schedule and I expect the Big Ten to improve too, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a lesser record next year, but a better overall team, one ready by March to make life miserable for opponents. That is my hope.

I also ask, what were the expectations before this season began? Mine were about where this team is right now. While we have talented guys on the team, I didn't see any All-Big Ten caliber types on the roster and I still don't (although Sampson, Iverson, and Joseph might have something to say about that by the end of their careers). This is a team currently comprised of role players. Hopefully we will be adding an All Big Ten talent next season in White and some of the other players on the team can grow their games over the summer.

As for writing off this season, I wouldn't speak so quickly. As Gary Parrish pointed out this week, the overall bubble is weak, this is a team with 22 victories including wins over Louisville, Illinois, and a sweep of Wisconsin, and a pretty high RPI. Not saying that they are in, but too early to count them out.

SWGOPHER said:

Hello everybody. First time poster, long time lurker.

I'm finished giving anyone in the program a pass, and I will be VERY critical of this program going forward. No more passes.

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Welcome. There's nothing more sure to elicit a few responses than going from lurker to nine posts in a single thread ... and making some fairly provocative statements. Welcome.

SWGOPHER said:

I read alot of comments this time last year about the team being better at the end of the year than the beginning. Didn't happen. Another year like this year and I can tell you the fan base(not all, but many) the local and national media will be calling the Gophers underachievers.

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Maybe. I suspect that more of the fan base will stay patient for another year if what you're speculating might happen actually does happen.

Most of what I've seen makes me think there will be improvement ... but I don't know that the fan base would be significantly disatisfied with, say, a top 30 rather than a top-15 finish next year. Like some others, I think you're a year or so ahead of where I'm at and where a lot of fans are at.

Part of the conundrum with "long-time lurkers, first-time posters" is that there's no historical context by which opinions can be evaluated. Last year, for example, did you think last year (Tubby's first) was spot on or better than expected? Do you think this year's overall performance (not just the last few games) was below, at or better than expected?

We don't know and thus I have a hard time getting a sense of whether a first-time poster is just trolling for reaction or being straight-forward.

SWGOPHER said:

Hoff is the kind of guy who does alot of little things but don't count on him to be a leading player on a top 10-15 team.

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I don't think many (actually, I don't recall any one person) have said Hoffarber will be the "leading player." I think a lot of us are thinking that Tubby emphasizes the team improving with contributions from a number of players. Tubby seems to have a sense of when to call on Hoffarber and when to call on another player ... but I don't think anyone has seen Hoffarber as Tubby's "leading player."

SWGOPHER said:

I told you some of you would rip me. We'll see if you rip me if I'm actually right.

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Just a couple of problems with this. First, you've given no basis for the projection nor a rationale. You may be right or just throwing stuff against the wall -- who knows?

Second, we've had plenty of "first-time posters" make statements and then, well, fade into the background, never to be heard from again (at least under their current moniker). So we'll see if you get the right to crow in a few weeks/months ... or if you're here to acknowledge that you were wrong if numbers 24 and 0 are still here with the same players next year.

What makes your post a bit suspect is that it comes after a painful loss and on the heels of some trolls who care less for the Gophers and more for stirring the pot. Just my $0.02

Why would the two most senior Minnesotan (who play, sorry Travis) transfer?

Bostick, I could see, since his playing time never matched his expectations. Payton maybe, because of the scholarship situation, though I would think Tubby would find a way too keep around (one year walk on, graduate assistant) but Hoffarber and Nolen seem to be at the bottom of the transfer list.

coolhand,

while you make good points, youwant to remember a few things;

1. Just having Tubby here increases the exposure we get 10x vs what we had before. I think many at a national level are watching to see how much success Tubby will have here.

2. A bubble team returning essentially their top 8 players, plus brining in a top 10 recruting class means that expectations will be higher, and I think in some cases, much higher. You will be surprised how many pre-season prognosticators will have the Gophers in their top 25.

3. While Michigan St and Purdue will be predicted 1-2 next year, don't be surprised if many have the Gophers picked 3rd and probably no worse than 4th. Penn St, Wisconsin, and Illinois lose at least a couple of key players, we don't.

4. Being picked high in a conference that is expecte to be strong next season. The Big Ten will get more media attention from the very start of the season to see if the teams can live up to those expectations. We will be watched intently.

I think many are underestimating how improtant next season is from a national perspective, not to mention the local media looks for any reason they can to focus on the negative regarding Gopher sports. Perceptionally next season is the most important since Clem left. Again, you may disagree, but just wait and see.

Year four is always the most important, unless you are Kentucky.

Snowman,

I certainly understand your responses, considering I've not posted before. I will say that htey are just my unsubstantiated thoughts regarding players transferring. If they are going to transfer now is the time to do it, because they still have two years of eligibility left. Bostrick only has one. If they transfer it would be to a lower division program, as they would ensure more PT. Also, it seems their PT has been reduced recently, and knowing that there is more talent coming, sometimes kids see the writing on the wall. Again, I may very well be wrong, but it is just these scenarios that lead to transfers.

As far as the team is concerned, I just posted above why I think next season is more important from a NATIONAL perception than many may think. Again, I may be all wrong, but personally won't be happy with Tubby if we are having the same discussion at this time next year, I just won't. And after the last 12 years, I soooo want my expectations to be met. No one more than me wants to get this thing turned around, and if we end up in the NIT it's not turned around, not yet.