I know that there are people on this board who have made a science of bracketology, but my very unscientific assessment is that the gophers have to beat Michigan today and win one game in the B10 tourney to breathe easy. It looks like there will be a logjam of 10-8 teams in the middle of the standings and not all of those teams are going to get a bid. We have two signature wins and a weak schedule. NU, for example, could be picked over us because it is a feel good story and they have more big wins. The magic number for wins is 11, not 10.
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ShowinGoldyLove
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Disagree.
We win today, we're in. With our W/L, RPI in the Top 35, # of Top 25 wins, # of Top 50 wins, 0 bad losses, and B10 record, we'd have to be in.
ShowinGoldyLove
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I'd agree with that.
cncmin
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Jamiche - you must be mixing up bowl games and the BCS with college basketball. The basketball committees simply do NOT jump "feel-good" stories over more deserving teams like football does. There is absolutely no way that if the Gophers and Northwestern end up with the same BT record, or even if NU has one more BT win in the end (due to the BTT), that NU jumps the Gophers. NU's OOC was not terrible, but not tourney-quality, and their BT play is borderline. What about that combination scares you? NU makes the dance only if they win the BTT.
As for the rest of the potential 10-8 teams, the Gophers have as good or better resumes than all of them, except maybe Ohio State. If they win today, they're in, barring strange happenings in the BTT.
You are right in one aspect, if the gophers win one here and one in the BTT (which would be the 4/5 game if i'm not mistaken), they are a shoe-in...I'd go so far as to suggest up to a possible 7-seed in the dance (likely 8) if they can pull that off. Jumping the gun even more than that, if the Gophers can win their next 3 games they could be up to a 6-seed, IMO (likely 7-8). All that said, this game is the one I'm most worried about. If they lose to Michigan, they'll be back to being firmly on the bubble as a first four in/first four out team.
Section201
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Have to agree with the rest of the board. Our numbers when it comes to being on "the bubble" are actually quite strong. If we win today, we're almost as good as golden imo. There are a lot of other teams that the committee will have a harder time deciding with and most of the prominent bracketologists I have seen during the last week actually have us in rather comfortably.
Now, if we lost to the Wolverines today, then we'll have a bit of sweating to do. But even then, we'll still be right there with a number of other bubble teams. Bottom line is that if we win today, we'll probably be somewhere in the high 20s and low 30s as an RPI and have 22 wins. Hard time being from a power conference and not making it with those numbers even if we lose right away in the Big Ten Tournament.
Now, if we lost to the Wolverines today, then we'll have a bit of sweating to do. But even then, we'll still be right there with a number of other bubble teams. Bottom line is that if we win today, we'll probably be somewhere in the high 20s and low 30s as an RPI and have 22 wins. Hard time being from a power conference and not making it with those numbers even if we lose right away in the Big Ten Tournament.
Yeah, it would be hard to see any of those teams making it in because, quite frankly, their resumes simply aren't as good as ours.