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bga1

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What is the ceiling for next year?

Let's forget about the idea of Mbakwe coming back and let's assume Rodney returns- as he should. Can this team compete for the upper echelon of the Big Ten next year- let's say 11-7 or better? Or is the top end for this team more like 10-8 or 9-9?

Certainly last night was neither a big surprise nor the cause of our problems (2 losses to Iowa, and 2-4 home record are the issue regarding making the NCAAs). OSU simply has loads more talent than we do. I don't see that issue being resolved any time soon. There is no magic influx of talent coming here and the "Panacea Practice Facility" is years away.

Right now we are a team that is:

Weak on the boards - will Mo Walker resolve that issue?
Lacks a point guard and none are coming - can Andre Hollins become a good to very good Big Ten guard?
Terrible offensive movement - just terrible. OSU offered a contrast on what ball movement looks like.
No inside post presence - Mo Walker? Can EE develop some offensive game?
Almost no toughness- very weak squad physically.
The inability to do simple things like -get the ball in bounds without a scrum- is amazing.

As a team - they shoot pretty well and they play pretty hard, but with no perceivable identity. I can't really put my finger on something that we do better than other good teams in the Big Ten.

It doesn't look like any immediate help is on the way from recruiting. Buggs and Ellenson may be fine prospects but do not appear to fit the current shortfalls of this squad.

Is there hope out there?
 

If we avoid injuries and guys continue to develop, I could see an upper half of the Big Ten finish, possibly as high as fourth place.

An NCAA tourney bid with a five or six seed. Winning one or two games in the tournament, so a possible Sweet Sixteen with a favorable draw.

Hard for me to see us being any better than that, but it would be a definite improvement over where we have been the last couple of years.
 

The biggest question for next year is whether Tubby can stop the transfers. Except for Ingram and maybe Mav, we need all scholarship players to come back.

I knew Monson was in trouble when Gaines left. If one of the Hollins or Coleman leaves it will signal a huge red flag. Chip would be less so but still worrying.
 

bga1, are the Gophers going to have enough depth next year up front? EE and Mo? I wish they had another big coming in. That's my biggest concern. I look for them to be 10-8 next year. (I'm assuming everyone stays on in assessing next year)
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
bga1, are the Gophers going to have enough depth next year up front? EE and Mo? I wish they had another big coming in. That's my biggest concern. I look for them to be 10-8 next year. (I'm assuming everyone stays on my assessing next year)
Click to expand...

Mo over Ralph is an upgrade (IMO) him and EE will handle center, Oto, Rodney, Buggs, and Ingram at PF. We are a little smaller, but hopefully quicker. And Rodney should see about 35 minutes a game as a senior.
 


fan of Ray Williams said:
bga1, are the Gophers going to have enough depth next year up front? EE and Mo? I wish they had another big coming in. That's my biggest concern. I look for them to be 10-8 next year. (I'm assuming everyone stays on in assessing next year)
Click to expand...

I also assume everyone stays on, and will be furious if there is no tournament next season. If there is another exodus, then I think we really need to acknowledge that something systemic is going on.

All that said, I think this post is a little premature. I'm not ready to get too deep into next season, I'm not done with this one yet. We need 4 of 5, 3 are at home, 3 are against teams we've beaten already, it would hardly be the Miracle on Ice to get to 9-9.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I also assume everyone stays on, and will be furious if there is no tournament next season. If there is another exodus, then I think we really need to acknowledge that something systemic is going on.

All that said, I think this post is a little premature. I'm not ready to get too deep into next season, I'm not done with this one yet. We need 4 of 5, 3 are at home, 3 are against teams we've beaten already, it would hardly be the Miracle on Ice to get to 9-9.
Click to expand...

Agreed 100%

Still a chance this year. Next year, any transfers of significant guys will make me VERY nervous (anyone besides Mav, Ingram, or maybe Chip) and no tournament wins next year and Id be more inclined to look at a change. Not there yet though obviously and I'd also expect more from the U for a practice facility.
 

If they can get the turnovers under control a top half of the Big Ten finish is doable. Turnovers are the real concern right now.
 

I like our young guys. At Minnesota, we're not going to get the guys who come in as freshman and carry us. We get the guys who will need a few years. I really think both Hollins will continue to improve, and I think Oto is a much better shooter than we have seen this year. What's missing is a reliable, go-to scorer, and I guess we have to hope that one emerges among the freshmen.

Currently, we are poor rebounders and interior defenders because we are thin and soft with the Sampson/Williams combo, despite Rodney's athleticism. I think we're a much better team with Eliason in the game over Ralph, and he and Mo will be an upgrade next year playing more minutes. If Rodney comes back -- and I hope he does -- I'm assuming he will continue to get better and stronger.

It won't be a championship team, but I think it should be Tubby's first winning record in the conference.
 



I have been encouraged by the development of our younger guys. As others have said the key is keeping them here. Our best lineup yesterday was one that had Dre Hollins (Frosh), Austin Hollins (Soph), Oto (Frosh), Rodney (Junior), and Elliott (Frosh). That's a promising future lineup assuming Rodney comes back. Add to that Chip (Soph), Coleman (Frosh), and the 2 incoming recruits and we are looking fairly solid.

I expect a transfer or two in the offseason, hopefully it's not anyone on the above list. Also, watching Ralph last night was painful in many ways. I feel for him that he looks frustrated and lost (as much as Ralph can show), but we are just so much better with Elliott on the floor.

I still believe we need depth at the PG position, really hard for a guy like Dre to transition to that position and be consistent, although I believe if Dre stays he is an All B10 player. We really could use a guy like Al was for us; a true PG, solid at all times with the ball. I always trusted that Al could at least get us into our offense; not so much with the guys we have today.
 

scher215 said:
Mo over Ralph is an upgrade (IMO) him and EE will handle center, Oto, Rodney, Buggs, and Ingram at PF. We are a little smaller, but hopefully quicker. And Rodney should see about 35 minutes a game as a senior.
Click to expand...

That's the way I see it also. Next year we finally have experience and depth. I always think 10-8 is a good B1G record. I have no problem with that next year.
 

bga1 said:
What is the ceiling for next year?

Let's forget about the idea of Mbakwe coming back and let's assume Rodney returns- as he should. Can this team compete for the upper echelon of the Big Ten next year- let's say 11-7 or better? Or is the top end for this team more like 10-8 or 9-9?

Certainly last night was neither a big surprise nor the cause of our problems (2 losses to Iowa, and 2-4 home record are the issue regarding making the NCAAs). OSU simply has loads more talent than we do. I don't see that issue being resolved any time soon. There is no magic influx of talent coming here and the "Panacea Practice Facility" is years away.

Right now we are a team that is:

Weak on the boards - will Mo Walker resolve that issue?
Lacks a point guard and none are coming - can Andre Hollins become a good to very good Big Ten guard?
Terrible offensive movement - just terrible. OSU offered a contrast on what ball movement looks like.
No inside post presence - Mo Walker? Can EE develop some offensive game?
Almost no toughness- very weak squad physically.
The inability to do simple things like -get the ball in bounds without a scrum- is amazing.

As a team - they shoot pretty well and they play pretty hard, but with no perceivable identity. I can't really put my finger on something that we do better than other good teams in the Big Ten.

It doesn't look like any immediate help is on the way from recruiting. Buggs and Ellenson may be fine prospects but do not appear to fit the current shortfalls of this squad.

Is there hope out there?
Click to expand...

We're in the 9-9, 10-8 range next season. We'll make the tourney & should win a game or two, but we're not a contender for the B1G championship. The season after next should be the big year when the whole nucleus are upper-classmen.

Next year....Dre Hollins is the future. He's the next Bobby Jackson or Willie Burton. The player who can take the team on hisr back & will them to win. Will he be able to do that as a Soph? Not consistently imo, but he's talented enough that we'll be much improved from Mav/Welch. Austin Hollins & Chip will be Juniors & typically the biggest jump is between the Soph/Jr years. Can Coleman develop a jumper by next season? Oto will continue to progress. Rodney's a late bloomer & I think he'll finally start putting entire games together next year. Walker adds an extra big with skills. Elliot will be a year bigger/stronger & even Ingram should be able to contribute some.
 

You get Trevor back, you're a tourney team. You don't, we will be where we're right now. Neither freshman is going to play. It was pointed out on GI that Buggs isn't even starting for the prep school and is averaging about 17 minutes a game.
 



Costa Rican Gopher said:
We're in the 9-9, 10-8 range next season. We'll make the tourney & should win a game or two, but we're not a contender for the B1G championship. The season after next should be the big year when the whole nucleus are upper-classmen.

Next year....Dre Hollins is the future. He's the next Bobby Jackson or Willie Burton. The player who can take the team on hisr back & will them to win. Will he be able to do that as a Soph? Not consistently imo, but he's talented enough that we'll be much improved from Mav/Welch. Austin Hollins & Chip will be Juniors & typically the biggest jump is between the Soph/Jr years. Can Coleman develop a jumper by next season? Oto will continue to progress. Rodney's a late bloomer & I think he'll finally start putting entire games together next year. Walker adds an extra big with skills. Elliot will be a year bigger/stronger & even Ingram should be able to contribute some.
Click to expand...

I agree CRG. Here's the problem- we are entering year 6 of Tubby ball and the group here pretty much unanimously says that we have the potential to go 10-8 or so. I guess I'd take that. Now what happens if we have just one key injury or defection. Bang- we are back to 7-11. My concern is that our high end scenario is so low that we are always a step away from being a below par squad. I am intrigued by Dre, Walker and Coleman, so I have hope there.
 

even with a healthy Trevor they were picked to finish 7th in the conference this year. nothing changes talent wise next year. 9-9 is probably the top end for this curent roster.
 

bga1 said:
I agree CRG. Here's the problem- we are entering year 6 of Tubby ball and the group here pretty much unanimously says that we have the potential to go 10-8 or so. I guess I'd take that. Now what happens if we have just one key injury or defection. Bang- we are back to 7-11. My concern is that our high end scenario is so low that we are always a step away from being a below par squad. I am intrigued by Dre, Walker and Coleman, so I have hope there.
Click to expand...

Hmm...Walker hasn't been in a competitive game for almost two years. I liked what I saw before he go hurt, but right now he is one LARGE question mark.
 

There was some positive from the OSU game. A good part of the second half was played with:

Eliason - Fr - Some with Ralph - Sr
Osenieks - Fr
Williams - Jr
Andre Hollins - Fr - Also Austin - So
Welch - Jr

They all come back with the exception of Sampson who didn't play much and I thought did a good job. They all will have an extra year of experience and hopefully development. I think 12-6 or 11-7 is very possible next year, but I thought 10-8 or 9-9 was possible this year.

The thing about Osenieks and Williams playing together is that they are completely interchangeable, one time down williams can play the block, the next time down it can be Oseniek. I like that combination.
 

scools12 said:
even with a healthy Trevor they were picked to finish 7th in the conference this year. nothing changes talent wise next year. 9-9 is probably the top end for this curent roster.
Click to expand...

Nothing? We get back an injured 6-11 285 Mo Walker and usually guys do get better from year to year.
 

bga1 said:
I agree CRG. Here's the problem- we are entering year 6 of Tubby ball and the group here pretty much unanimously says that we have the potential to go 10-8 or so. I guess I'd take that. Now what happens if we have just one key injury or defection. Bang- we are back to 7-11. My concern is that our high end scenario is so low that we are always a step away from being a below par squad. I am intrigued by Dre, Walker and Coleman, so I have hope there.
Click to expand...
That's exactly, where I'm at. I'm just asking for one more serviceable big man just in case. All I'm asking for. I just want to see them get some insurance. Hopefully it doesn't get to it.
 

The lack of bigs in the BIG is problematic. I called for 6 BIG wins after Trevor went down as he was our much needed big factor.

There are too many variables at this point to predict the ceiling but with the current roster, minus RS, I say 9 wins. If Trevor is back then I would say 12. I don't expect Mo to be a force next year but with EE, Trevor and Mo we would be solid in the paint and more experience across the board.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
We're in the 9-9, 10-8 range next season. We'll make the tourney & should win a game or two, but we're not a contender for the B1G championship. The season after next should be the big year when the whole nucleus are upper-classmen.

Next year....Dre Hollins is the future. He's the next Bobby Jackson or Willie Burton. The player who can take the team on hisr back & will them to win. Will he be able to do that as a Soph? Not consistently imo, but he's talented enough that we'll be much improved from Mav/Welch. Austin Hollins & Chip will be Juniors & typically the biggest jump is between the Soph/Jr years. Can Coleman develop a jumper by next season? Oto will continue to progress. Rodney's a late bloomer & I think he'll finally start putting entire games together next year. Walker adds an extra big with skills. Elliot will be a year bigger/stronger & even Ingram should be able to contribute some.
Click to expand...

I agree - Talor Battle is a good comparison for Dre.
 

ruppertflywheel said:
You get Trevor back, you're a tourney team. You don't, we will be where we're right now. Neither freshman is going to play. It was pointed out on GI that Buggs isn't even starting for the prep school and is averaging about 17 minutes a game.
Click to expand...

You could be right, but I've got to believe we would be better than this year no matter what happens with Mbakwe. Many times, the biggest improvement a player will see is between freshman and sophomore seasons. We should be better just because of more experience.

Of course, that's if we don't have any transfers and/or injuries.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
We're in the 9-9, 10-8 range next season. We'll make the tourney & should win a game or two, but we're not a contender for the B1G championship. The season after next should be the big year when the whole nucleus are upper-classmen.

Next year....Dre Hollins is the future. He's the next Bobby Jackson or Willie Burton. The player who can take the team on hisr back & will them to win. Will he be able to do that as a Soph? Not consistently imo, but he's talented enough that we'll be much improved from Mav/Welch. Austin Hollins & Chip will be Juniors & typically the biggest jump is between the Soph/Jr years. Can Coleman develop a jumper by next season? Oto will continue to progress. Rodney's a late bloomer & I think he'll finally start putting entire games together next year. Walker adds an extra big with skills. Elliot will be a year bigger/stronger & even Ingram should be able to contribute some.
Click to expand...

GophersInIowa said:
You could be right, but I've got to believe we would be better than this year no matter what happens with Mbakwe. Many times, the biggest improvement a player will see is between freshman and sophomore seasons. We should be better just because of more experience.

Of course, that's if we don't have any transfers and/or injuries.
Click to expand...
I always thought it was between Junior and Senior years. Kidding, just kidding.
 

I think there are two keys... IF Moe comes back and can log meaningful minutes AND we have no transfers of note during offseason...then I think we will be better. I mean, our entire backcourt is made up of either freshman/sophmores or a first year tranfer. Lots of learning being done that you would hope would pay dividends. Having a solid backcourt is key and I think we do have a solid backcourt. You would hope that the young players will have the light turn on, regarding pulling out close games. We are competitive, just cannot get over hump enough (we did against Indy and Illiinois at home).

I really think roster consistency is the key for Tubby and the team. I think his recruiting has been fine, good enough to win, but too much roster turnover. If that stops this year, then I think the future is actually pretty bright. Lots of IF's though...
 

Same story, different year - will be a team on the outside looking in relative to the tournament. Good year that exceeds expectations would be 5th or 6th place and a bid. Bad year would be 11th or 12th place. Probably sitting somewhere in the middle of those two.
 

Wouldn't the ceiling clearly be NCAA champs? :)

I think how this season finishes out goes a long way toward seeing how this team may be next year. Finish strong (relatively speaking, at least 8-10), then I don't see any reason why this team wouldn't be expected to be in the tournament next year with all of the returning talent. Tank like last year and it's a little more up in the air.

It's not hard to jump from the 10th position we are in currently all the way up to a top 5 team. That's like two or three wins. We know this team could have easily won two or three more games (just like they could have lost two or three, I know). With at least 10 guys returning, if each player makes even a small, minute improvement, that could be the difference between finishing with 10 wins or finishing with 6.

What happens with those swing games where the difference is just a couple possessions will be the factor in where we end up next season. We're 2-5 so far in those types of games (I'm talking both ILL games, Michigan, both Iowa, IU, and Becky). That has to be at least .500 if we want to be in the mix next season for advancement in the tourney.
 

ruppertflywheel said:
You get Trevor back, you're a tourney team. You don't, we will be where we're right now. Neither freshman is going to play. It was pointed out on GI that Buggs isn't even starting for the prep school and is averaging about 17 minutes a game.
Click to expand...
Why do the freshmen need to play? And last time we had an interview from the coach at Hargrave Buggs was starting. And he was just mentioned in a write-up.
 


The biggest difference for the front court next year will be that EE has to scrimmage against Mo next season instead of against RS3, in practice I imagine EEs offensive game looks much better against RS3 as he can push him out of the way. RS3 is a 3 not a 5.
 

idagopher said:
The biggest difference for the front court next year will be that EE has to scrimmage against Mo next season instead of against RS3, in practice I imagine EEs offensive game looks much better against RS3 as he can push him out of the way. RS3 is a 3 not a 5.
Click to expand...

Good point! Our 2 monsters going up against each other every day in practice. Hopefully next year, but certainly in the future, folks better have their game face on when playing against EE and Huge Mo.
 

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