Going back to last February, Gophers in close Big Ten games

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EG#9

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It seemed to me like the Gophers have lost an inordinate amount of games decided in the final minute(s) in the last season or so. It's not perfect, but I looked back to last February and found that it appears (to my memory) the Gophers are 2-10 in close games (used 5 points as a rough estimate, but adjusted based on situation).

Feb 2: @ Indiana L 60-57
Feb 17: @ Penn State L 60-63
Feb 22: Michigan State L 53-48
Feb 26: Michigan L 70-63 (Gophers down 64-62 wth the ball and 50 seconds to play)
Mar 6: Penn State L 66-63
This Year
Dec 27: @Illinois L 81-72 2 OT
Jan 1: @ Michigan L 61-56
Jan 4: Iowa L 64-62
Jan 12: @ Indiana W 77-74
Jan 28: Illinois W 77-72 OT
Feb 1: @ Iowa L 63-59
Feb 9: Wisconsin L 68-61 OT

You can certainly argue that the win against Indiana should not be considered a "close" win given the way the Gophers gave up a safe lead late. On the other hand, you could argue that the home loss against Iowa falls in to that same category as the Hawkeyes almost gave up the same sort of safe lead.
 

It seems like we haven't had a guy that can get the ball and do something with it at the end of the game since Lawrence Westbrook. To me, that's the difference between winning and losing close games.
 

John Galt said:
It seems like we haven't had a guy that can get the ball and do something with it at the end of the game since Lawrence Westbrook. To me, that's the difference between winning and losing close games.
Click to expand...

Hopefully Andre can be that guy.
 

EG#9 said:
It seemed to me like the Gophers have lost an inordinate amount of games decided in the final minute(s) in the last season or so. It's not perfect, but I looked back to last February and found that it appears (to my memory) the Gophers are 2-10 in close games (used 5 points as a rough estimate, but adjusted based on situation).

Feb 2: @ Indiana L 60-57
Feb 17: @ Penn State L 60-63
Feb 22: Michigan State L 53-48
Feb 26: Michigan L 70-63 (Gophers down 64-62 wth the ball and 50 seconds to play)
Mar 6: Penn State L 66-63
This Year
Dec 27: @Illinois L 81-72 2 OT
Jan 1: @ Michigan L 61-56
Jan 4: Iowa L 64-62
Jan 12: @ Indiana W 77-74
Jan 28: Illinois W 77-72 OT
Feb 1: @ Iowa L 63-59
Feb 9: Wisconsin L 68-61 OT

You can certainly argue that the win against Indiana should not be considered a "close" win given the way the Gophers gave up a safe lead late. On the other hand, you could argue that the home loss against Iowa falls in to that same category as the Hawkeyes almost gave up the same sort of safe lead.
Click to expand...


The 2 wins you mentioned from last month -- at Indiana, and vs. Illinois in the Barn -- were the unlikeliest of victories. Both thrillers.
The other 10 games definitely fall into the 'moral' victory category.
 

John Galt said:
It seems like we haven't had a guy that can get the ball and do something with it at the end of the game since Lawrence Westbrook. To me, that's the difference between winning and losing close games.
Click to expand...

Yup. We really don't appear to have a leader or someone who truly wants the ball with the game on the line. Towards the end of most (if not all) of those losses, we started missing both FGs and FTs and had really poor execution in general down the stretch. There haven't been many games in the past calendar year that we've found our identity and stuck with it over the course of 40 minutes. In the aforementioned losses, that identity almost always disappeared down the stretch.

I guess I'm kind of making the tired old "we need a true point guard" argument, but I'd give anything to have a court general out there in the waning moments.
 


Not sure it can just be pinned on the lack of a certain type of player. If you look at the list of games, the losses include 8 different conference opponents, so it's tough to argue that each one of them had someone to close the game and the Gophers did not. I do think that is part of the issue, but there are certainly other components, it's just impossible to know which is the most significant.
 

EG#9 said:
Not sure it can just be pinned on the lack of a certain type of player. If you look at the list of games, the losses include 8 different conference opponents, so it's tough to argue that each one of them had someone to close the game and the Gophers did not. I do think that is part of the issue, but there are certainly other components, it's just impossible to know which is the most significant.
Click to expand...

Good work gathering data to support your point. One question I would have (as I see the Michigan loss included even though it was more than a five point deficit due to the fact that we were within 2 with 50 seconds to play) is were there any games that we won by more than 5 but were up by only a possession at that same stage?

Either way, this is a troubling figure. It seems to lend credence to the proposition that the problem has not been that the players we have dressing for these games have the talent to be competitive, and just aren't getting it done at the end.

Also, John reminded me how much I miss Westbrook.
 

Lack of guard play in general has cost us in close games. Again, it doesn't have to be a pure point guard, but any guard that can be counted on to get good shots up at least or make something happen. Notice our decline in close games began as soon as Nolen's foot cracked. Nolen was reliable in the clutch at getting in the paint, and also became a pretty darn good clutch three point guy. Him and Hoff controlled that game against Purdue last year. Westbrook could make things happen late.

I'm hoping Dre can be one of those guards that can control things in that manner down the line.
 

There's two types of players that can help you in a situation like that:
1. The guy who will penetrate with a plan to dish or pass for an open shot by someone else - i.e. a point guard. The last guy we had like that was Aaron Robinson.
2. The guy who will make his own shot at the end of the game. If the roles were reversed, Taylor would have made the best shot he could get and taken it, and it would have been a good shot. Andre Hollins as a freshman is not quite there yet. Maybe Westbrook and McKenzie were those guys. Grier sort of was, but his jump shot wasn't as reliable.
 



as much as it pains me to say this because my son's high school team lost their 5th game of the year by less than 4 points last night and I don't blame his coach- but an old saying is that if a game is within 4 points it is won or lost by the coach. More than 4 and the players are the difference just by ability difference.
 

EG#9 said:
It seemed to me like the Gophers have lost an inordinate amount of games decided in the final minute(s) in the last season or so. It's not perfect, but I looked back to last February and found that it appears (to my memory) the Gophers are 2-10 in close games (used 5 points as a rough estimate, but adjusted based on situation).

Feb 2: @ Indiana L 60-57
Feb 17: @ Penn State L 60-63
Feb 22: Michigan State L 53-48
Feb 26: Michigan L 70-63 (Gophers down 64-62 wth the ball and 50 seconds to play)
Mar 6: Penn State L 66-63
This Year
Dec 27: @Illinois L 81-72 2 OT
Jan 1: @ Michigan L 61-56
Jan 4: Iowa L 64-62
Jan 12: @ Indiana W 77-74
Jan 28: Illinois W 77-72 OT
Feb 1: @ Iowa L 63-59
Feb 9: Wisconsin L 68-61 OT

You can certainly argue that the win against Indiana should not be considered a "close" win given the way the Gophers gave up a safe lead late. On the other hand, you could argue that the home loss against Iowa falls in to that same category as the Hawkeyes almost gave up the same sort of safe lead.
Click to expand...

Thought people might find this interesting. This year the Gophers are 1-2 in such close games with the win at home against Iowa and the losses coming at Wisconsin and at home against Illinois. If you want to be "anti-Tubby" you could say he's 1-3 in such games this year with additional loss coming at MSU which was a 2 possession game late. Also, the Gophers lost another close one against MSU in 2012 after I made this post which put them at 2-11 during through 2 years of Big Ten play. My unofficial count through 2 1/2 plus season of play is now 3-13 in close Big Ten games.

I'd really be interested in seeing the number of upset losses (per Vegas) during the past 2 1/2 plus years compared to the number of upset wins. This year, the Gophers have not won a single conference game that they were underdogs in and have lost 3 (Michigan, @Northwestern, Illinois) as favorites. I would guess that number would be as equally damming as the above information.
 

Thought this would be interesting to bump. We've dealt with this BS for a long, long time now. It feels like it's a statistical impossibility for a team to be this bad for this long in close games.

This year the Gophers are 0-4 in conference play in close games and have lost 3 times as favorites.

There can't be a more painful program to follow in the country.
 




I remember when we used to win close games at the Barn. Those were the days.
 

Missing 2 one and ones at the end of the game - 4 pts... Iowa makes their fts......
 


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