Three-pointers

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From the Barn

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I can't recall seeing any team make a statistical turn around like the Gophers' three-point shooting and especially three-point defense. During the non-conference season, the Gophers were well below average in both areas. Now, somehow, they are above average in both areas, and rank 4th in both areas in the Big Ten, even with the dreadfulness of the first half of the Purdue game.

Thoughts on what happened, and can it keep up?

I think putting more speed (Joe Coleman) on the floor helped.
 

Piggybacking on your thoughts on Coleman, someone on here also mentioned the fact that Mbakwe was replaced to form a quicker, smaller lineup. Definitely helps for when you need to rotate and fly at shooters.
 

The teams they have played recently don't have a big that needs to be doubled. That has helped a lot.
 

Illinois, MSU, Indiana don't have bigs? What crack are you smoking?
 



From the Barn said:
I can't recall seeing any team make a statistical turn around like the Gophers' three-point shooting and especially three-point defense. During the non-conference season, the Gophers were well below average in both areas. Now, somehow, they are above average in both areas, and rank 4th in both areas in the Big Ten, even with the dreadfulness of the first half of the Purdue game.

Thoughts on what happened, and can it keep up?

I think putting more speed (Joe Coleman) on the floor helped.
Click to expand...

I think we also have the fewest 3 pt attempts per game, so part of it is just being more selective and letting the right people take our shots. Julian Welch is the 2nd best 3 pt shooter in the conference too, so that helps.
 

920/414 Gopher said:
Piggybacking on your thoughts on Coleman, someone on here also mentioned the fact that Mbakwe was replaced to form a quicker, smaller lineup. Definitely helps for when you need to rotate and fly at shooters.
Click to expand...

I agree with that. We also seem to be switching on the pick and role a lot more than in the past. I think it helps with the 3-point shot but does create mismatches.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I agree with that. We also seem to be switching on the pick and role a lot more than in the past. I think it helps with the 3-point shot but does create mismatches.
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Agreed. There were times in the game yesterday where it seemed like we switched up to 4 or 5 times on a possession on Nebraska's picking action around the top of the key. I feel like the difference in this game was Nebraska didn't have enough skill players to score once they had mismatches. Also, EE played pretty solid D is these situations.
 

Maybe Tubby can still coach a little?

Just sayin'...
 




From the Barn said:
I can't recall seeing any team make a statistical turn around like the Gophers' three-point shooting and especially three-point defense. During the non-conference season, the Gophers were well below average in both areas. Now, somehow, they are above average in both areas, and rank 4th in both areas in the Big Ten, even with the dreadfulness of the first half of the Purdue game.

Thoughts on what happened, and can it keep up?

I think putting more speed (Joe Coleman) on the floor helped.
Click to expand...

I saw this thought in another of your posts so I'm glad you posted it as a separate thread, it deserves it. Could it be...good coaching & practice? Some player development as well? Austin plays some perimeter defense. Rodney's very good on the perimeter. Is Chip progressing? Is Coleman progressing? Is Maverick progressing? How is Welch's perimeter D?
 

Law of averages has to come into play a little too as the last couple years nobody missed three's against us...where as this year those wide open looks are popping out. That said, I think we have been better on the perimeter because we play a smaller more athletic line up with out two bigs on the floor.
 

Don't have the stats to back it up, but it seems like the Badgers have been struggling from the 3-point line recently, especially the Brust kid. That's all he can do, we should make him put it on the floor every single time he touches the ball. Pretty much ditto for Gasser, but he's a better overall player than Brust.

This isn't a vintage Bo Ryan Badger team -- they don't have the reliable 2nd and/or 3rd scorers they usually have -- but Bo's done his usual good job to get this team to 7-4. There's no reason the Gophers can't beat this Badger team at The Barn, and for that matter again in Madison, where they've proven vulnerable (4 losses this season).
 



Wisconsin is 10th in the B1G in both 2 point and 3 point shooting. They shoot 41% of their field goal attempts behind the three-point line. Not a recipe for success without a very good defense, which the Badgers have.
 

From the Barn said:
. ... Not a recipe for success without a very good defense, which the Badgers have.
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I fear this is going to be one of those ugly 40's-50's-type game that the B1G had last week. Could be a real eye sore, but I really don't care as long as the Gophers finish on the right end of it. Whatever it takes to finally get to .500 in the B1G.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
Law of averages has to come into play a little too as the last couple years nobody missed three's against us...where as this year those wide open looks are popping out. That said, I think we have been better on the perimeter because we play a smaller more athletic line up with out two bigs on the floor.
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The Gophers were 2nd in conference last year in defending the three. The smaller lineup helps defend the three, but our rebounding stats are down a lot this year. You have to give in some areas to get in some areas. I would rather defend the three like we are doing and give a little on rebounding.
 

minngg said:
The Gophers were 2nd in conference last year in defending the three. The smaller lineup helps defend the three, but our rebounding stats are down a lot this year. You have to give in some areas to get in some areas. I would rather defend the three like we are doing and give a little on rebounding.
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That's a very deceptive stat minngg. You will see below that we allowed far and away the most points scored off of three pointers last year. We actually enticed teams to shoot the three by constantly doubling down low and chasing the ball. Yes- we were second in percentage allowed- but we were more damaged by opposing three point shots than any other team. That .336 percentage from 3pt shots is equal to a .50 percent efficiencey from the 2pt shot. How many games do you win where the opponent shoots 50% plus? Not many. You can say that three point attempts don't produce fouls - and that's usually true. But lots of three point attempts also reduces turnovers. It's higher risk to go inside.

3-POINT FIELD GOAL PCT DEFENSE
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
1.Illinois............ 18 113 378 .299
2.Minnesota........... 18 151 450 .336
3.Purdue.............. 18 98 279 .351
4.Ohio State.......... 18 115 324 .355
5.Michigan............ 18 121 336 .360
6.Iowa................ 18 132 365 .362
7.Northwestern........ 18 109 290 .376
8.Penn State.......... 18 125 332 .377
9.Michigan State...... 18 115 303 .380
10.Wisconsin........... 18 98 252 .389
11.Indiana............. 18 126 315 .400

The impressive thing now is that we are seeming to reduce the percentage and the number of threes taken. And that's a real good thing.
 

It could be my imagination, but there seems to be a tactical change or changes in the defensive scheme, perhaps away from the ball-line or at least towards a variant of it. As bga noted, I haven't noticed as much of the wing defender hedging to the post and leaving the shooter wide open. That's left the opposing big men with single coverage, and on a number of occasions the weak side defense has saved the day with a blocked shot. (It's just that, against Iowa, we broke down at the end by failing to get in people's way in key situations.)

What makes me think that we're still playing at least a variant of the ball-line is that the smarter players (ahem, Austin) are still positioning themselves to get in the passing lanes. But I have to admit, these defenses look different than last year or earlier this year. Maybe this answers the question I posed several games ago - how much does Tubby want to win? Enough to adjust his way of doing things?

Our perimeter defenders have been very active in fighting through screens and switching. I don't remember seeing that a lot earlier in the season. A lot of this might be effort and intensity - again, what we lacked down the stretch against the Hawks.
 

i don't buy the shooting 33% from 3 is like shooting 50% from 2. It depends on number of possessions, number of 2 point shots, the fg% there and number of free throws. I think the gophers have a better true fg % than the badgers which I think wins out more times than not. They shouldn't have any problem getting the face of the Turtle like badgers.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Don't have the stats to back it up, but it seems like the Badgers have been struggling from the 3-point line recently, especially the Brust kid. That's all he can do, we should make him put it on the floor every single time he touches the ball. Pretty much ditto for Gasser, but he's a better overall player than Brust.

This isn't a vintage Bo Ryan Badger team -- they don't have the reliable 2nd and/or 3rd scorers they usually have -- but Bo's done his usual good job to get this team to 7-4. There's no reason the Gophers can't beat this Badger team at The Barn, and for that matter again in Madison, where they've proven vulnerable (4 losses this season).
Click to expand...

They are shooting 30.4% in BT play from the 3-point line, 3rd worst in conference. They're also shooting just 46% for 2-pointers in that time frame. That's not very good considering they are more selective than most teams inside the arch.

Either way, it's going to come down to our offense. We have to control the tempo and run the floor a little bit.
 

For the first four years Tubby was here it was an automatic to double down even against an inferior post player. The last 6-8 games it has changed, less doubling down and as someone else said on the outside are switching not to allow a better outside look. With their guards on the floor in the 6'3" to 6'5" range it allows there to not be as much of a mismatch potentially.
 

the key to Tubby's defense is keep the ball as far from the basket as possible but against Wisconsin Jordan Taylor is a pretty tough match up so the blow by and kick for a wide open 3 is a real threat. However, if the other defenders know where is going it's going to be an easy pick off of the pass because Rodney or Ralph will block his shot if he goes all the way to the rim.

When other players have the ball above the 3 point line though, you should expect to see a lot of pressure on the ball. He'll probably give pressuring Jordan Taylor a shot, put Austin on him with his length and quickness at times. They have no inside game so I wouldn't expect a whole lot of double teams if the ball gets in the paint. I would expect to see ball pressure and a lot of bodies playing to wear them down physically. Gophers by 5
 

Gopher opponents in the Big Ten are scoring 25% of their points on 3 pointers. Last year in the B1G it was 38%. This season Gophers allowing 2nd fewest points from behind 3 point line, last year it was second most.
 

From the Barn said:
Gopher opponents in the Big Ten are scoring 25% of their points on 3 pointers. Last year in the B1G it was 38%. This season Gophers allowing 2nd fewest points from behind 3 point line, last year it was second most.
Click to expand...

So we're easier to drive on. Got it.
 

From the Barn said:
Gopher opponents in the Big Ten are scoring 25% of their points on 3 pointers. Last year in the B1G it was 38%. This season Gophers allowing 2nd fewest points from behind 3 point line, last year it was second most.
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Another factor is last year we were starting Ralph, Iverson and Mbakwe the 2nd half of the Big Ten season. That is a recipe for giving up a lot of 3 pointers/attempts.
 

notagopherfan said:
i don't buy the shooting 33% from 3 is like shooting 50% from 2. It depends on number of possessions, number of 2 point shots, the fg% there and number of free throws. I think the gophers have a better true fg % than the badgers which I think wins out more times than not. They shouldn't have any problem getting the face of the Turtle like badgers.
Click to expand...

notagopherfan- It's mathematics plus some variables. Taking the 3 pointers will reduce turnovers, increase long rebounds and second chances- but it will also reduce the defensive fouls and FT scoring. So there are pluses and minuses. The intangible factor is big though when you start hitting them- it just knocks the stuffings out of the opposing team. I for one, cringe everytime the other team puts up a trey- much moreso than when they shoot a two pointer.
 

From the Barn said:
I can't recall seeing any team make a statistical turn around like the Gophers' three-point shooting and especially three-point defense. During the non-conference season, the Gophers were well below average in both areas. Now, somehow, they are above average in both areas, and rank 4th in both areas in the Big Ten, even with the dreadfulness of the first half of the Purdue game.

Thoughts on what happened, and can it keep up?

I think putting more speed (Joe Coleman) on the floor helped.
Click to expand...

Might improved 3 point defense be coming partly from facing poorer
3 point shooting teams?
 

Whathavewedone said:
Might improved 3 point defense be coming partly from facing poorer
3 point shooting teams?
Click to expand...

Not really. They faced the 4 of the top 5 3 pt shooting teams (gophers are #4) and the two worst. This isn't merely bad teams shooting badly. Since the Purdue game the Gophers have faced the following teams with the following B1G 3pt percentage rankings

Indiana #1
Penn State #12
Northwestern #2
Michigan State #3
Illinois #8
Iowa #5
Nebraska #12
 

More guards in the lineup means a quicker perimiter defense and also means more shooters on the perimiter. Though we don't have anyone that can create 3 off the dribble like Hoff did, most of our shot attempts have been of the wide open variety. Not much has changed since Mbakwe went down other than the confidence level to step up and shoot when open. None of it has been very suprising, though it was very frustrating early in the season when nobody seemed to have the confidence to step up and take a three when open. At least the young guys have gained some confidence to step up. If we come back next year with Mo, Elliott and maybe Rodney inside it should be interesting.
 

From the Barn said:
Not really. They faced the 4 of the top 5 3 pt shooting teams (gophers are #4) and the two worst. This isn't merely bad teams shooting badly. Since the Purdue game the Gophers have faced the following teams with the following B1G 3pt percentage rankings

Indiana #1
Penn State #12
Northwestern #2
Michigan State #3
Illinois #8
Iowa #5
Nebraska #12
Click to expand...

If you guys haven't figured it out yet, I'm a stats guy. I like to back statements up with facts (unlike whathavewedone).

Another way to look at it is how teams are shooting against us compared to their average. Overall, our conference opponents are shooting 33.8% from the 3-point line in Big Ten play this year. Those same opponents have shot 30.5% against us. That means, in general, teams have shot worse against us from behind the arch than their average.
 

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