Which four?

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bleedsmaroonandgold

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Gophs are 5-6. Consensus seems to be that we will be in at 9-9 and will need a run in the B1G tourney at 8-10. We have a favorable schedule in the sense that we play in the Barn for most of the rest of the way. We have an unfavorable schedule in the sense that we are playing host to some of the B1G's most unwelcome guests. My question is simple: which four do we think we can get?

For my two cents, I think if we want to come out of this gauntlet with four more wins, at home against Nebraska and on the road against NU (our only remaining unranked opponents) pretty much need to happen. That leaves two more. I think that we can take care of an Indiana team that has looked bad on the road and whom we have already beaten in their host. I would put those games into the category of games that we "should" win, by virtue of having beaten Nebraska and Indiana on their home courts and utterly embarrassing Northwestern on ours.

If we win the 3 we should have, we need to steal one. I think Wisconsin at home is the obvious most likely win here. Wisconsin has not looked as good as they have in the past, and we should have a strong crowd and a lot of energy against our hated rival from the east.

This leaves us little margin for error, but if you can put yourself in a position where winning three that you are supposed to and stealing one gets you in after dropping some games that you should have had in hand (having a two point lead, the basketball, and the clock off in Illinois) or games against opponents you should have beat (IowaX2, maybe Purdue at home), the I think you need to feel pretty good about yourself. Even if we drop one of the four I outlined, OSU (3-2 road record in B1G play) and MSU (losing road record in B1G) aren't invincible on the road and Wisconsin is only 3-3 at the Kohl center in conference, so grabbing at least one of those three isn't impossible.
 

I'd guess Gophers win @NW, home against Indiana, home against Nebraska and home against Wisconsin.

Lose any of those and just need to pick up an OSU, MSU or @Wis win, which is very possible. Lose two of those above four though, and I'd be very very nervous.
 

I'm guessing they win all 7, finishing the conference 12-6. One can dream, right?
 


zambam said:
I'm guessing they win all 7, finishing the conference 12-6. One can dream, right?
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Or one could face reality, realize that 2-5 is more liekly than 4-3, and get ready for another exciting NIT selection show.
 


I break it down into two types of games the rest of the way; exciting to win, disappointing to lose (granted each win is exciting and each loss disappointing, but bear with me).

Exciting to win:
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin

Disappointing to lose:
Indiana
@ Northwestern
Nebraska

Win one of the "exciting to win" and all of the "disappointing to lose" and you're there. Most likely candidates to get to four are Wisconsin, Indiana, @ Northwestern, Nebraska. But if we lose against Wisconsin Thursday we're in about as tough a spot as you could be in, having to sweep those three "disappointing to lose" and win one of OSU/MSU/@Wisc to have a shot.
 

Gopher07 said:
I break it down into two types of games the rest of the way; exciting to win, disappointing to lose (granted each win is exciting and each loss disappointing, but bear with me).

Exciting to win:
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin

Disappointing to lose:
Indiana
@ Northwestern
Nebraska

Win one of the "exciting to win" and all of the "disappointing to lose" and you're there. Most likely candidates to get to four are Wisconsin, Indiana, @ Northwestern, Nebraska. But if we lose against Wisconsin Thursday we're in about as tough a spot as you could be in, having to sweep those three "disappointing to lose" and win one of OSU/MSU/@Wisc to have a shot.
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I am not too worried about Wisconsin. I think we have a great shot beating them here and a decent shot of doing it on the road.

Here is why:

1) I think Wisconsin is overrated this year, not to the extent of Indiana, but greatly overrated. They are helped a lot from their pre-season ranking and reputation. However, their resume is not all that impressive, IMO. It is good, don't get me wrong, but this isn't last years Wisconsin team.

2) Trevor Mbakwe is out. I love Trevor and I want him on the floor every second if I can. But that said, Wisconsin doesn't have a "big" they have 5 wings, with some of them taller than others. Ralph is only slightly less quick than Whoever Wisconsin puts at center. And I'll put money on Rodney being quicker than any Badger 3 or 4 or 5, as well as Austin, Joe, Chip, etc. Welch is also a perfect match up for Taylor. I think that we match up extremely well with Wisconsin overall and should beat them at home with a good shot on the road as well. They aren't going to dominate us with size like MSU or OSU and if we can play active defense to force some turnovers and beat them off the dribble and with movement on offense, I like the odds.

3) the barn will be ROCKING. We saw what the barn can do for the Illinois game (a team not many fans care about more than any other) and yet the most hated rival comes to town. I have a feeling the barn will be a scary scary place for the Badgers on Thursday. This is the one game many fans get up for. People say the barn is dead, but the shaved head game, the Purdue game last year and even the OSU game in the middle of the collapse last year were incredible. Get the Badgers in town, and there can still be magic.

I am predicting a nice win over the Badgers, not a blow out by any means, but a win that will be about 5-7 points with only a little stress at the end.
 


Easiest to Hardest:

Nebraska
Indiana
Wisconsin
@ Northwestern
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin
Ohio State



 



@NU scares me because it always scares me. More often than not the Cats start bombing threes and making athletic plays against us at home that they almost never make. At least it won't be their senior night. (I will be there this year. I'm curious to see their building.) I think we run the table at home and lose both of the road games to finish 10-8.
 

Just to please all of the naysayers on GopherHole, I am gonna predict that we lose every one of our games from here on out.

As a result, the Gophers would not even be invited to their own post-season invitational tournament.

:horse: :banghead: :horse: :banghead: :drink: :drink: :drink:
 

Dr.Don said:
Just to please all of the naysayers on GopherHole, I am gonna predict that we lose every one of our games from here on out.

As a result, the Gophers would not even be invited to their own post-season invitational tournament.

:horse: :banghead: :horse: :banghead: :drink: :drink: :drink:
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To please some of them, you might need to predict 8 losses in our last 7 games.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
To please some of them, you might need to predict 8 losses in our last 7 games.
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Amen, Bleeds. That outcome is the only way some of our experts would be happy.


Better yet, we would be in a 4-team tournament, and we would come in 5th.
 



The Gophers will probably be the underdogs (per the money, often a good proxy for reasonableness) in each of their next six games. WISC, IND & @NW look doable, but getting to 9-9 looks like a very tall order.. still think 8-10 may give a team a chance.. Purdue & Illinois & NW should be watched as well..
 

Gold Vision said:
Easiest to Hardest:

Nebraska
Indiana
Wisconsin
@ Northwestern
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin
Ohio State
Click to expand...

Swap Wisconsin and @ Northwestern and I'm with you. Northwestern is plucky at home but they have losses of 20, 23 and 33 points in conference play this year (albeit all on the road). Having beat them by 23, I like our matchups. Although low scoring and painful to watch, Wisconsin will be in almost any game they play (biggest exception @ Michigan when they got pounded).
 

scher215 said:
I am not too worried about Wisconsin. I think we have a great shot beating them here and a decent shot of doing it on the road.

Here is why:

1) I think Wisconsin is overrated this year, not to the extent of Indiana, but greatly overrated. They are helped a lot from their pre-season ranking and reputation. However, their resume is not all that impressive, IMO. It is good, don't get me wrong, but this isn't last years Wisconsin team.

2) Trevor Mbakwe is out. I love Trevor and I want him on the floor every second if I can. But that said, Wisconsin doesn't have a "big" they have 5 wings, with some of them taller than others. Ralph is only slightly less quick than Whoever Wisconsin puts at center. And I'll put money on Rodney being quicker than any Badger 3 or 4 or 5, as well as Austin, Joe, Chip, etc. Welch is also a perfect match up for Taylor. I think that we match up extremely well with Wisconsin overall and should beat them at home with a good shot on the road as well. They aren't going to dominate us with size like MSU or OSU and if we can play active defense to force some turnovers and beat them off the dribble and with movement on offense, I like the odds.

3) the barn will be ROCKING. We saw what the barn can do for the Illinois game (a team not many fans care about more than any other) and yet the most hated rival comes to town. I have a feeling the barn will be a scary scary place for the Badgers on Thursday. This is the one game many fans get up for. People say the barn is dead, but the shaved head game, the Purdue game last year and even the OSU game in the middle of the collapse last year were incredible. Get the Badgers in town, and there can still be magic.

I am predicting a nice win over the Badgers, not a blow out by any means, but a win that will be about 5-7 points with only a little stress at the end.
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I'm with you, I've seen them play 3 times this year. Slow, unathletic and they don't shoot as good as some of their better teams. I think Minnesota shoots better than Wisconsin from 3 and overall. Tempo is the key to beating them. Don't let them keep the game slow because against most teams that's how they keep it close

I think Tubby will come early with the 2nd unit in this game just to try and keep the tempo a little faster. I don't think it will be super fast but don't let them pass the ball around for 33 seconds and shoot it. Make them work to get open and contest every single shot. Push the misses and drive inside on them, they have no shot blockers. This should be an easy win IMO. Unless the Badgers hit a whole bunch of 3's. Rodney, Joe, and Austin should score a lot going to the hole. Ralph can score a lot in the post as well.
 

Cats walked in and beat the Illini yesterday. You have to shut down Shurma which the Gophers did in the first half when they played here. Rodney and Ralph really have to step up. You can't expect the bench to provide 40 points like they did yesterday. Rodney talks about stepping up, but the last two games, talk is cheap. Ralph, who knows? Nothing seems to inspire Ralph. I think Hali Berry could walk by him in a skin tight and he wouldn't even flinch. The guy is an enigma. For sure, 9-9 gets us in. 8-10 we probably need at least 2 wins in the BTT depending how the other teams end up in conference play.
 

Just thinkiing...

Having to wonder "which 4?" with 11 down and 7 to go is a hell of a lot nicer than having to wonder "which 9??" with 4 down and 14 to go.
 

brucekaupa said:
Just thinkiing...

Having to wonder "which 4?" with 11 down and 7 to go is a hell of a lot nicer than having to wonder "which 9??" with 4 down and 14 to go.
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For sure. If on Friday we are wondering "which 3?" with 12 down and 6 to go, I will be breathing a lot easier. The boys have come a long way, but we've got a ways to go yet.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
The Gophers will probably be the underdogs (per the money, often a good proxy for reasonableness) in each of their next six games. WISC, IND & @NW look doable, but getting to 9-9 looks like a very tall order.. still think 8-10 may give a team a chance.. Purdue & Illinois & NW should be watched as well..
Click to expand...

I think if we end up going 8-10, we need two wins in the BT tourney to have a realistic chance. At that record this year there's a solid chance our 2nd round match-up in the BT tourney would be Ohio St. or Michigan St. and I don't think we can beat those teams without Mbakwe. Obviously anything can happen but the chances are pretty slim.

Going 9-9 with a first round win would get us in for sure in my opinion.
 

Whathavewedone said:
Or one could face reality, realize that 2-5 is more liekly than 4-3, and get ready for another exciting NIT selection show.
Click to expand...
Kentucky is gonna go 2-5 over there next 7 games? I'm sorry to hear that.
 

Gold Vision said:
Easiest to Hardest:

Nebraska
Indiana
Wisconsin
@ Northwestern
Michigan State
@ Wisconsin
Ohio State
Click to expand...

I think Northwestern should be underneath Nebraska. Its about match ups and we match up well vs the wildcats. There is only 1 game on there that I believe we match up incredibly poorly and that is MSU. MSU should be on the bottom then OSU.
 

Winona Gopher said:
I think Northwestern should be underneath Nebraska. Its about match ups and we match up well vs the wildcats. There is only 1 game on there that I believe we match up incredibly poorly and that is MSU. MSU should be on the bottom then OSU.
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I don't like the OSU matchup at all. Sullinger in the paint, plus Craft harassing our guards, who have already shown a little propensity for being a tad loose with it? I like the MSU matchup better personally. Either way, they're not the greatest though, and it will take good efforts from a lot of guys to make wins happen in either of those games.

We do have what I would call four "winnable" games remaining, they've been mentioned above. Split Becky, IU, Nebraska, and NW. Chances are we drop one of those at least, potentially two of them. A sweep of Becky would be astounding, we've done it before in the Tubby era, why not again? Or try to get MSU at home and get a split with them. As I noted above, I least expect a victory against OSU, but a win against them might also grant a little breathing room where 8-10 gets us in with a BTT win or something like that.
 

Monty519 said:
I don't like the OSU matchup at all. Sullinger in the paint, plus Craft harassing our guards, who have already shown a little propensity for being a tad loose with it? I like the MSU matchup better personally. Either way, they're not the greatest though, and it will take good efforts from a lot of guys to make wins happen in either of those games.
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Mbwake had a hard time with Sullinger, not sure how they can defend him, I don't see anything short of double teaming him. I see no way the OSU game is even close.
 

The Key

Make sure one of the tougher opponents is rated 8th when we play them. No 8th ranked team can ever beat us. Better yet, have OSU and MSU trade the number 8 spot, and we take them both.
 

I think Scher and Notagopherfan are right on this. 4 wins is very attainable. 5 wins means the team has really grown. Anything more and the Tubbinots have to turn in their Tubbinot membership cards.

Alternatively, it is easily foreseeable that the Gophers could lose to WI (hate to say it).

Gophers are way more athletic than WI and I do think we should win the game at home. But the dangers are:

1. Taylor, Taylor and Taylor; he will attempt to muscle the Gopher point guards with inside drive and threes from the perimeter. Containing him and making him work are a must. Dre has the quickness but he will be greatly challenged on the experience front. I'm not sure Welch can stay with him.
2. WI size; no they are not quick. But I am concerned about the boards, particularly 2nd chance points for WI. EE will get his minutes because he will be needed to rebound.
3. WI is a streak shooting team from the outside. If they shoot over 50 percent against anyone, they are tough. On the other hand, we've all seen them clunk and clang the joint.

If the Gophers can move without the ball and not settle for the outside pass-a-thon, particularly with resumed aggression from Rodney and Coleman, Gophers will put great pressure on WI to stay with us offensively. Drive gentlemen drive! Also, I think we all want to see a solid 15-25 minutes from Chip - I don't think Whiskey can match up with him.
 

BOUNDOUTPASSDUNK said:
I think Scher and Notagopherfan are right on this. 4 wins is very attainable. 5 wins means the team has really grown. Anything more and the Tubbinots have to turn in their Tubbinot membership cards.

Alternatively, it is easily foreseeable that the Gophers could lose to WI (hate to say it).

Gophers are way more athletic than WI and I do think we should win the game at home. But the dangers are:

1. Taylor, Taylor and Taylor; he will attempt to muscle the Gopher point guards with inside drive and threes from the perimeter. Containing him and making him work are a must. Dre has the quickness but he will be greatly challenged on the experience front. I'm not sure Welch can stay with him.
2. WI size; no they are not quick. But I am concerned about the boards, particularly 2nd chance points for WI. EE will get his minutes because he will be needed to rebound.
3. WI is a streak shooting team from the outside. If they shoot over 50 percent against anyone, they are tough. On the other hand, we've all seen them clunk and clang the joint.

If the Gophers can move without the ball and not settle for the outside pass-a-thon, particularly with resumed aggression from Rodney and Coleman, Gophers will put great pressure on WI to stay with us offensively. Drive gentlemen drive! Also, I think we all want to see a solid 15-25 minutes from Chip - I don't think Whiskey can match up with him.
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Sure would be nice to get those two going again. Rodney with only 13 rebounds in the last 5 games. Joe with only 5 FG attempts in the last 2 games. Also Joe didn't have 1 FT in the last 2 games.
 

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