Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Remain in the Bracket, Margin for Error Still Slim

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Remain in the Bracket, Margin for Error Still Slim
By Selection Sunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/132714?referrer_id=331171

SPLITSVILLE, U.S.A. -- The Minnesota Gophers' men's basketball team continued its NCAA Tournament tightrope last week with a 1-1 road trip to Iowa City and Lincoln, Neb. Though a sweep would have given the Gophers some margin for error heading into their final seven regular-season games, the split does seem more palatable considering the win came on the back end, a 69-61 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

The Gophers now are a respectable 3-4 on the road in the Big Ten and 5-5 overall in road/neutral games, but it is on their home floor where they'll need to make hay and earn their NCAA Tournament bid. The Gophers finish with five of their final seven regular-season games at Williams Arena, four (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State & Indiana) against ranked opponents. Win three of those four and split their remaining two road games (Northwestern & Wisconsin) and there will be ZERO question the Gophers hear their name called on Selection Sunday, no matter what happens in Indianapolis, site of the Big Ten Tournament. Anything less than four wins (8-10, for example) in all likelihood means the Gophers need to do damage -- win a game or 2 -- in Indy.

Here's our updated Field of 68 projection and Big Ten +/- standings, as well as a who's who of bubble games for the coming week. The most notable changes in my Field of 68 this week are (1) there are now 9 Big Ten teams dancing (Northwestern climbs back in after its win @ Illinois), and (2) there is a sub-.500 team from a non-BCS conference as one of the "last 4 in". That team is Northern Iowa, which despite its struggles (6-7) in the Missouri Valley Conference has a #51 RPI and holds wins over Iowa State (in Ames), Colorado State and Creighton, teams all in my current field.

RPI's are noted in parentheses and are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

FIELD OF 68 (Feb. 6, 2012)
America East (1): Stony Brook (163)

ACC (5): Duke (3), North Carolina (7), Florida State (17), Virginia (42), NC State (57)

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (90)

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple (22), Saint Louis (34), Saint Joseph's (43)

Big East (7): Syracuse (1), Marquette (12), Georgetown (13), UConn (21), West Virginia (25), Louisville (29), Notre Dame (55)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (87)

Big South (1): UNC-Asheville (115)

B1G (9): Ohio State (4), Michigan State (6), Michigan (15), Indiana (18), Wisconsin (30), Northwestern (37), Illinois (46), GOPHERS (49), Purdue (64)

Big 12 (5): Baylor (2), Kansas (9), Missouri (11), Iowa State (35), Kansas State (50)

Big West (1): Long Beach State (36)

Colonial (1): Drexel (86)

Conference USA (2): Southern Miss (8), Memphis (19)

Horizon (1): Cleveland State (61)

Ivy (1): Harvard (40)

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona (56)

Mid-American (1): Akron (54)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (129)

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton (16), Wichita State (27), Northern Iowa (51)

Mountain West (4): UNLV (10), San Diego State (20), Colorado State (24), New Mexico (44)

Northeast (1): LIU (113)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (39)

Pac 12 (2): Cal (48), Washington (76)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (77)

SEC (5): Kentucky (5), Florida (14), Vanderbilt (28), Alabama (31), Mississippi State (32)

Southern (1): Davidson (67)

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington (118)

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State (156)

Summit (1): Oral Roberts (47)

Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee State (45)

West Coast (3): St. Mary's (23), Gonzaga (26), BYU (41)

WAC (1): Nevada (71)


Last 4 In: Northwestern (37), Saint Joseph's (43), Northern Iowa (51), NC State (57)

First 4 Out: Seton Hall (33), Miami-Florida (38), Xavier (53), Arkansas (59)

Other First 4 Participants: Texas-Arlington (118), Norfolk State (129), Mississippi Valley State (156), Stony Brook (163)

Others Considered: Ole Miss (52), Arizona (62), UCF (63), Pitt (65), Texas (66), UMass (68), Wyoming (69), LaSalle (70), Dayton (72), Colorado (73), Oregon (83), VCU (85), Denver (88), Cincinnati (95)

Non-BCS At-Larges (10): UNLV (10), Memphis (19), Colorado State (24), Gonzaga (26), Wichita State (27), Saint Louis (34), BYU (41), Saint Joseph's (43), New Mexico (44), Northern Iowa (51)

B1G +/- Standings
These are relative to finishing 9-9 in conference play by using a road wins - home losses +/- rating. Point differential also is included.
1. Ohio State (+3, +180) -- 3 road wins, 0 home losses
2. Michigan State (+2, +107) -- 2 road wins, 0 home losses
3. Wisconsin (+1, +37) -- 4 road wins, 3 home losses
4. Michigan (+1, +15) -- 1 road win, 0 home losses
5. Indiana (+1, +7) -- 2 road wins, 1 home loss
6. GOPHERS (+1, +4) -- 3 road wins, 2 home losses
7. Purdue (E, -29) -- 3 road wins, 3 home losses
8. Illinois (-1, -9) -- 1 road win, 2 home losses
9. Northwestern (-1, -48) -- 1 road win, 2 home losses
10. Iowa (-1, -51) -- 2 road wins, 3 home losses
11. Penn State (-3, -102) -- 0 road wins, 3 home losses
12. Nebraska (-3, -111) -- 1 road win, 4 home losses

Conference Records/Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents (toughest to easiest)
1. Ohio State (47-36, 56.6%)
2. GOPHERS (42-33, 56%)
3. Illinois (48-39, 55.2%)
4. Penn State (38-36, 51.4%)
5. Michigan State (44-42, 51.2%)
T-6. Indiana (31-31, 50%)
T-6. Wisconsin (37-37, 50%)
8. Northwestern (43-44, 49.42%)
9. Purdue (42-43, 49.41%)
10. Nebraska (36-38, 48.6%)
11. Michigan (32-40, 44.4%)
12. Iowa (31-44, 41.3%)

This Week's Bubble Games ("B" denotes Bubblicious)
Monday
Texas (B) @ Texas A&M
Tuesday
Purdue (B) @ Ohio State
Wednesday
Arkansas (B) @ Georgia
Cincinnati (B) @ St. John's
LaSalle (B) @ Richmond
Marshall @ UCF (B)
Northern Iowa (B) @ Wichita State
Pitt (B) @ South Florida
Rhode Island @ (B) Xavier
St. Bonaventure @ (B) UMass
Saint Louis @ (B) Saint Joseph's
Seton Hall (B) @ Rutgers
Towson @ (B) VCU
Thursday
Colorado (B) @ Arizona (B)
Denver (B) @ FAU
Iowa @ Northwestern (B)
NC State (B) @ Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (B) @ Mississippi State
Virginia Tech @ Miami-Florida (B)
Washington @ Oregon (B)
Wisconsin @ GOPHERS (B)
Saturday
Auburn @ Ole Miss (B)
Cincinnati (B) @ Marquette
Colorado (B) @ Arizona State
Colorado State (B) @ TCU
Dayton (B) @ Fordham
Denver (B) @ FIU
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa (B)
Kansas State @ Texas (B)
Miami-Florida (B) @ Florida State
Pepperdine @ BYU (B)
Saint Louis @ LaSalle (B)
South Carolina @ Arkansas (B)
UCF (B) @ Southern Miss
UMass (B) @ Saint Joseph's (B)
Utah @ Arizona (B)
VCU (B) @ Old Dominion
Washington State @ Oregon (B)
Wyoming (B) @ New Mexico
Xavier (B) @ Temple
Sunday
Northwestern (B) @ Purdue (B)
Pitt (B) @ Seton Hall (B)

A note regarding the Big Ten and the bubble. ... as of today I consider Purdue, the Gophers and Northwestern (in that order) bubble teams. In my opinion Illinois is still safely in the tournament field, but that changes if the Illini lose both their games (@ Indiana, @ Michigan) this week.

Illini and PAC 12

As frustrating at is is to be a Gopher fan (taking care of business against Iowa has them safely in the tournament), it has to be worse being an Illini fan with all that talent and highly rated recruiting classes that seem to underperform their talent and lay eggs on a routine basis. The thread holding their season together is that they got Michigan State on their worst night of the year. I still don't want them in the BTT, though. They outperform their seed more than any other team.

Pretty generous keeping Washington in. I suspect it is Cal and whoever they let win the PAC 12 tournament. It would be nice to see Cal sweep through that and see what the committee does, because it is a very bad league this year. Is it the worst season a BCS conference has ever had? Lots of losses to the NBA, but one could think they could keep some roster strength together in those transitions.

Always appreciate the feedback, Holy Man. Currently Washington is in as the Pac 12's automatic qualifier, with Cal as an at-large. I think
somehow the Pac 12 will end up with 2, but can't see 3 happening at this point.

Illini are head-scratchers, for sure. Even back in late December when I went to the Illini-Gopher game in Champaign, I got the sense Illinois fans just don't believe. Not sure if it's a lack of faith in this particular Illini team, a lack of faith in Weber, or a combination of both.

Thing is, being one of the "last 4 in" in bracket projections right now really means you're probably going to be out, come tourney time, if all you do is "hold serve" and keep that last 4 in status. Bracket projections right now don't take into account that conference tourneys -- especially in the smaller conferences -- always take a few bids off the table when unexpected teams come out of nowhere to secure an automatic bid.

So basically, my problem with these "bracketologies" right now is that if you really want to project whether the Gopher are on track to be a tourney team, they probably need to be in the top 60-62 (auto bids plus at large), not the 65-team projection.

WanderingGopher said:

Thing is, being one of the "last 4 in" in bracket projections right now really means you're probably going to be out, come tourney time, if all you do is "hold serve" and keep that last 4 in status. Bracket projections right now don't take into account that conference tourneys -- especially in the smaller conferences -- always take a few bids off the table when unexpected teams come out of nowhere to secure an automatic bid.

So basically, my problem with these "bracketologies" right now is that if you really want to project whether the Gopher are on track to be a tourney team, they probably need to be in the top 60-62 (auto bids plus at large), not the 65-team projection.

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That goes without saying, but thanks. We'll deal with "bid-stealers" once the conference tournaments start in 3 weeks.

Holy Man said:

As frustrating at is is to be a Gopher fan (taking care of business against Iowa has them safely in the tournament), it has to be worse being an Illini fan with all that talent and highly rated recruiting classes that seem to underperform their talent and lay eggs on a routine basis. The thread holding their season together is that they got Michigan State on their worst night of the year. I still don't want them in the BTT, though. They outperform their seed more than any other team.

Pretty generous keeping Washington in. I suspect it is Cal and whoever they let win the PAC 12 tournament. It would be nice to see Cal sweep through that and see what the committee does, because it is a very bad league this year. Is it the worst season a BCS conference has ever had? Lots of losses to the NBA, but one could think they could keep some roster strength together in those transitions.

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The 2009 SEC was pretty bad as well. Three teams got in the tournament but only because Mississippi St. won their tourney.

Joe Lunardi just updated his Bracketology. We differ on 4 at-larges:

Lunardi has Arizona, Cincinnati, Seton Hall & Xavier in the field. In their place I have Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Northwestern & Saint Joseph's in the field.

His" last 4 in" are Arizona, the Gophers, NC State & Seton Hall.

His "first 4 out" are Colorado State, Ole Miss, Texas & Wyoming.

Road/neutral record vs RPI top 100

QUESTION for SS-

Doug Gottlieb mentioned on Saturday's College Game Night that the Gophers road/nuetral record vs the RPI top 100 was not very good. Do you put any weight to that component?

Also do you know what the Gophers road record is vs the Top 100 and how it compares to other teams on the bubble?

For the betters out there: If Cal is the only slam dunk at-large team out of the PAC-12 and they manage to make it to the conference tournament final, bet the farm on the opponent. No way the PAC-12 wants to go down as the first major conference with only 1 tournament team.

Ope3 said:

QUESTION for SS-

Doug Gottlieb mentioned on Saturday's College Game Night that the Gophers road/nuetral record vs the RPI top 100 was not very good. Do you put any weight to that component?

Also do you know what the Gophers road record is vs the Top 100 and how it compares to other teams on the bubble?

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The Gophers' road/neutral record vs. the RPI top 100 is 1-4. It's 1-3 (subtract Dayton) in true road games. I do no use either of those components.

I do not know how the Gophers' road record vs. the top 100 compares to other bubble teams.

Another question for you, SS. Most brackets I see have Purdue a clear tier or two above the Gophers on the bubble. Lunardi, for example, has Purdue as a 10 seed, the Gophs in a play-in. Looking at the resumes, I don't see how Purdue is above the Gophers at all, let alone two seeds clear. I don't see a real signature win on Purdue's schedule (vs. Temple is likely the Boilers' best). They've got bad losses @PSU and vs. Butler. Barring a miracle at OSU, they'll be 15-9 (5-6). And they have an RPI in the mid-60s. I don't see how Purdue is in a better position than the Gophers, and I'd even think Northwestern has a better resume than Purdue. Is there something I'm missing (other than head-to-head)?

I sure don't see Northwestern getting in.

SonOfTheVarsity said:

Another question for you, SS. Most brackets I see have Purdue a clear tier or two above the Gophers on the bubble. Lunardi, for example, has Purdue as a 10 seed, the Gophs in a play-in. Looking at the resumes, I don't see how Purdue is above the Gophers at all, let alone two seeds clear. I don't see a real signature win on Purdue's schedule (vs. Temple is likely the Boilers' best). They've got bad losses @PSU and vs. Butler. Barring a miracle at OSU, they'll be 15-9 (5-6). And they have an RPI in the mid-60s. I don't see how Purdue is in a better position than the Gophers, and I'd even think Northwestern has a better resume than Purdue. Is there something I'm missing (other than head-to-head)?

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That loss still stings pretty badly with the way they shot the ball at the Barn. FWIW, that game against Butler was on a neutral floor at Conseco (or Bankers Life Fieldhouse, or whatever it is now).

Purdue over Gophers

SonOfTheVarsity said:

Another question for you, SS. Most brackets I see have Purdue a clear tier or two above the Gophers on the bubble. Lunardi, for example, has Purdue as a 10 seed, the Gophs in a play-in. Looking at the resumes, I don't see how Purdue is above the Gophers at all, let alone two seeds clear. I don't see a real signature win on Purdue's schedule (vs. Temple is likely the Boilers' best). They've got bad losses @PSU and vs. Butler. Barring a miracle at OSU, they'll be 15-9 (5-6). And they have an RPI in the mid-60s. I don't see how Purdue is in a better position than the Gophers, and I'd even think Northwestern has a better resume than Purdue. Is there something I'm missing (other than head-to-head)?

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Certainly Purdue's head to head win over the Gophers (in Minnesota) is a factor for me, but that's not it. In a nutshell, I like Purdue's quality wins better than the Gophers', and the Boilers have more of 'em. 3 of Purdue's 5 top-50 wins have come on the road or a neutral court (vs. #21 Temple, @ #37 Northwestern, @ #49 Gophers). They've also beaten #38 Miami-Florida and #45 Illinois. There's also a pretty nice neutral-site win just outside of the top 50 (#58 Iona), and neither of their bad losses (@ #142 Penn State & vs. #149 Butler) occurred on the Boilers' home court.

The Gophers have 3 top-50 wins, only 1 of which came away from Williams Arena (@ #17 Indiana). The others are #37 Northwestern (which Purdue has already beaten in Evanston) and #45 Illinois (Boilers also NW, in West Lafayette). The Gophers also have 2 bad losses (both to #124 Iowa), and obviously 1 of those occurred in Minneapolis.

There certainly are reasons to leave either or both out of the field at this point, but for now I have both avoiding the "last 4 in" tag.

How can a head to head be a factor unless it is a two way tie for the last spot?

I don't see Northwestern getting in.

NC State has a hard remaining schedule:
@ Georgia Tech (2-7 ACC)
@ #9 Duke
#17 Florida State
#5 North Carolina
@ Clemson (3-5)
Miami (5-3)
@ Virginia Tech (2-6)

Seton Hall has lost 6 straight but they have an easy remaining schedule.

Arizona has an easy remaining schedule.

I think Colorado State has a very playable schedule and will get in, but they are on a thin rope.

Ole Miss is a team that plays a bunch of middle-of-the-pack SEC teams. They could secure an NCAA tourney bid or just as easily be looking in from far out. Same goes for Texas. Both teams finish with a lot of average teams.

I don't think Wyoming's going to get in. They probably have to finish 5-2 in their last 7: @UNM, AFA, @CSU, @#14
@ New Mexico (5-2 MWC)
Air Force (1-6)
@ Colorado State (4-3)
@ #14 San Diego State (6-1)
Boise State (0-7)
TCU (3-4)
@ #16 UNLV (5-2)

I'd be shocked if Colorado or Arkansas gets in. They both have a hard finish to their schedule with a bunch of road games.

I think Miami could be a surprise team. If they win the games they're supposed, beat one of @ #17 FSU, #5 UNC, @ NCSU, and win a game or two in the ACC Tourney, I think they could get in.

IMO, the Gophers will have a hard time getting in. A win over Iowa sure would have helped.

This is nothing scientific about just my estimate of what chance we have at winning every game:
32% #22 Wisconsin
12% #3 Ohio State
50% @ Northwestern
8% #12 Michigan State - We're going to have to get hot, or they're going to have to get cold. We don't match up well with MSU.
35% #23 Indiana
10% @ #22 Wisconsin - They don't lose often at the Kohl Center.
88% Nebraska

That leaves us at 2.35 wins and 4.65 losses. The difference between winning 2 and 3 more games is big. If we only won two games we would probably have to win the B1G tournament.

It's important that Indiana stays ranked. A road non-conference top 25 win would help. We're all Hoosiers fans as well right now.

Here's how I think it plays out. Just my opinion of course.

Currently 5 - 6 In Big Ten

Wisc. @ home - Win
Ohio St @ home - Loss
North - road game - Loss
Mich St. @ home - Loss
Indiana @ home - Win
Wisc. - road game - Loss
Neb @ home - Win

Indiana and Northwestern could flip flop to loss - win but the overall record would not change.

Finish Conf. @ 8 - 10
Finish Reg Sea. @ 20 - 11

Maybe 1 Big Ten Tourn. win and of course 1 loss

Enter Selection Sunday at 21 - 12
1 good win against Indiana when they were hot but considering how they have slipped
not sure how much that win will help.

It would also look terrible to have a losing conference record.
That may stand out above everything.
Added to that you have to look at where Minn got the bulk of the wins.
Week pre conference games.

While not having to endure the meltdown of last season with no hope of dancing I think more
depends on how many surprise teams get in due to automatic tourney champ bids.
There always seems to be a couple.
More likely NIT bound but you never know.

Still a 3 weeks and a lot can happen.

I just don't see the Big Ten getting 9 teams in at the end of the season...just not gonna happen

Great point on Illinois as I think they should be no worse than 3rd in the conference behind Ohio State and Michigan State, yet they seem to play up or down to their competition. As for the Gophers chances, I think the lack of any faith that they can win a home game against Ohio State or Michigan State kind of shows how long a shot the Gophers are. If the Gophers lose both those games, the best they could finish is 5-4 at home in the conference, which then would require two more road victories to reach 9-9 overall.

I personally see no argument for the Gophers if they go 8-10 in conference play if one of those wins is not OSU or MSU. The Gophers signature wins would be home wins over Illinois and Wisconsin (potentially) and a road win at Indiana. There's just not enough quality wins on their resume to justify a trip to the tournament in such a scenario. If you have bad losses on your resume, you need some equally impressive good wins to offset those losses.

They just need more....Gophers need a big win against Mich St. or Ohio St. - then go more then one win into the Big Ten tourney. They also can not lose to Wisconsin on Thursday.

I know it's crazy to think about, but what if Iowa finishes the season 10-8 in the conference? They are 5-6 right now and have a very easy schedule the rest of the way (compared to what it could be). Two games with NW, one with Nebraska, and one with Penn St. They could win all four of them. The other three are at Illinois, and home against Indiana and Wisconsin. Highly unlikely they get to 10 but you never know, especially this year in the B1G. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

For us, 9-9 and a first round win gets us in for sure in my opinion. To get to 9-9 at this point, it would require us to gain two more quality wins.

Parski1 said:

They just need more....Gophers need a big win against Mich St. or Ohio St. - then go more then one win into the Big Ten tourney. They also can not lose to Wisconsin on Thursday.

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Here is how i see it. Gophers sweep, big if I know, they are, imo, a lock to be in the tournament as long as they take care of business vs Northwestern and Nebraska.

Rosemountian said:

How can a head to head be a factor unless it is a two way tie for the last spot?

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In this case, I was being asked specifically about Purdue vs. the Gophers in terms of an at-large spot so yes, I would use head to head as a factor. Not so much if we were comparing 5-6 teams for the final spot.

maliksealy said:

I just don't see the Big Ten getting 9 teams in at the end of the season...just not gonna happen

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I agree, but this guesstimate doesn't project ahead. I think the number's gonna' end up being 7 for the B1G, with a possibility of 8.