The Road to Selection Sunday: Approaching February Means Calendar Becomes Bubblicious

The Road to Selection Sunday: Approaching February Means Calendar Becomes Bubblicious
By Chris Monter

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/130601?referrer_id=331171

BUBBLETOWN, U.S.A. -- We'll take a break from our "Field of 68" projection this week, but that doesn't mean we're taking the week off from thinking ahead to the NCAA Tournament. We've reached the point of the college hoops season where every Sunday night I can start nailing down the amount of at-large bids available for the NCAA Tournament. In other words, it's time to get bubblicious.

Heading into the week of January 23, I have 18 teams vying for 6 available at-large bids. With three consecutive wins, the Gophers have moved off the bubble and are one of 62 teams whose bids I view as secure to this point. Remember, this is based on results through Sunday and DOES NOT project future results. Keep in mind, the bubble fluctuates greatly from week to week -- heck, even day to day -- once we hit mid-February. Quite honestly, a lot of the 18 teams listed don't have much to write home about with regards to their resumes (that's also true of some of the ones I consider "secure"), but as of now the bubble -- like last season -- appears Charmin soft.

Here's a snapshot look at the teams I consider the truest of the true bubblicious. By my estimation only 6 of these teams would make the NCAA tourney if it were held today. We'll look at where they rank among their bubble peers using several different criteria: (1) RPI; (2) nonconference strength of schedule; (3) road/neutral record; (4) record vs. top 50 in the RPI; and (5) record vs. the top 100 in the RPI.

The 18, in alphabetical order. ... Arizona, BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado, Colorado State, Iowa State, LaSalle, Marshall, Memphis, New Mexico, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis, Stanford and UMass. All statistical numbers are courtesy of Jerry Palm at collegeRPI.com.

RPI
21. Colorado State
26. Memphis
34. Ole Miss
38. Northwestern
42. Northern Iowa
46. Marshall
51. Saint Louis
52. Iowa State
56. BYU
57. New Mexico
58. Saint Joseph's
62. Colorado
65. UMass
72. Arizona
77. LaSalle
81. Stanford
91. Cincinnati
98. Notre Dame

Nonconference SOS
10. Memphis
12. Northern Iowa
20. Colorado State
25. Marshall
26. Colorado
29. Arizona
34. Saint Joseph's
57. BYU
61. Northwestern
77. Ole Miss
158. Iowa State
196. Saint Louis
214. UMass
219. Notre Dame
231. New Mexico
243. Stanford
260. LaSalle
325. Cincinnati

Road/Neutral Record
1. New Mexico (7-2)
2. Cincinnati (6-2)
3. BYU (7-3)
4. Saint Louis (5-3)
5. Iowa State (4-3)
6. Northern Iowa (5-4)
7. Colorado State (4-4)
8. Marshall (4-4)
9. UMass (5-5)
10. Stanford (4-4)
11. Ole Miss (5-6)
12. Memphis (4-5)
13. Northwestern (4-5)
14. Arizona (4-5)
15. LaSalle (4-6)
16. Saint Joseph's (4-7)
17. Colorado (2-5)
18. Notre Dame (1-7)

Record vs. Top 50
1. UMass (1-1)
2. Stanford (1-1)
3. Cincinnati (2-3)
4. LaSalle (1-2)
5. Notre Dame (2-4)
6. Ole Miss (1-3)
7. Northern Iowa (1-3)
8. Marshall (1-3)
9. Northwestern (2-7)
10. Saint Joseph's (1-4)
11. Memphis (1-5)
12. Saint Louis (0-2)
13. New Mexico (0-2)
14. Colorado State (0-3)
15. BYU (0-3)
16. Colorado (0-3)
17. Iowa State (0-4)
18. Arizona (0-4)

Record vs. Top 100
1. Cincinnati (5-3)
2. Saint Louis (4-3)
3. BYU (4-3)
4. New Mexico (4-3)
5. Northern Iowa (5-4)
6. LaSalle (3-3)
7. Stanford (3-3)
8. Ole Miss (4-5)
9. Saint Joseph's (4-5)
10. Marshall (4-6)
11. Memphis (3-6)
12. UMass (2-4)
13. Notre Dame (3-6)
14. Northwestern (3-7)
15. Colorado State (2-5)
16. Colorado (2-6)
17. Arizona (2-6)
18. Iowa State (1-5)

If you're curious, the Gophers are #47 in the RPI, have a nonconference SOS rank of #143, are 4-3 in road/neutral games, 2-4 vs. the top 50 in the RPI, and 5-4 vs. the top 100 in the RPI.

I am surprised (but happy) that both SS and JL have the Gophers dancing (at this point). In my mind, the Gopher wins over PSU, IU and NW were good but not unexpected (I think IU is overrated). So not sure I understand the big jump in dance ranking.

Since I normally read more about RPI and SOS and I am looking at SS’s top 5 bubble RPI teams and wondering why those teams are behind the Gophers. If I look at each category (RPI, SOS, RNR, T50, T100) and give a - if the Gophers are better a + if the Gophers are worse, it breaks out like this –
RPI SOS RNR T50 T100 Net
Col State + + - - - -1
Memphis + + - - - -1
Old Miss + + - - - -1
Northwestern + + - - - -1
Northern Iowa + + - - 0 0

Gophers are better in RNR, T50 and T100. Which I can understand may be a better dance criterion. Want teams which can beat the top teams to be dancing.

Question for SS – are all the above categories more or less equal importance in your brackets? Recall you wrote that you look closely at T50.

Keep in mind, this was kind of a snapshot. ... I didn't show all my criteria. I use all of the ones mentioned here pretty much equally, however, I only use the RPI ranking as a guide. In most bubble cases, there's really not much difference between a team that's #48 and #68, etc.

There is one criteria I didn't use here; it's the one I really look at when it's the nitty gritty and I'm choosing the last few teams. I call it the "best 3 wins" criteria. I look at each bubble teams' best 3 RPI wins, and rank the bubble teams from the lowest (good) total (i.e wins vs. #18, #26 and #29 would be a total of 73) to the highest total (bad). It is especially helpful if at least 1 of those 3 wins occurred on the road or on a neutral court. I very much value top-50 (and even top-100) wins not on your home court. That's why the Indiana win could be especially helpful to the Gophers.

I do look at bad losses, but they aren't much of a factor for me. What I find is most bubble teams that have a bad loss or 2 (RPI #101+) usually have a couple quality wins that pretty much erase the bad losses. Bubble teams that have no real top quality wins yet no bad losses don't do much for me. Occasionally teams like that (think UAB a few years ago and again last year, also Air Force several years back) will sneak into the field, but they usually don't.