Road to Selection Sunday: One Week Sure Can Change an Outlook

Road to Selection Sunday: One Week Sure Can Change an Outlook
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/129071?referrer_id=331171

DINKYTOWN, Minn. -- Big Ten Network analyst Gary Williams said it best Sunday at the end of the Gophers' 80-66 win over Penn State in Happy Valley.

"It's amazing what one week can do to change how you look at your team," said Williams, the former Ohio State and national championship head coach at Maryland.

Williams was speaking in reference to Gophers head coach Tubby Smith, but he might as well have been speaking to the entire Gopher basketball fan base. Exactly one week after an unsightly Iowa/Purdue homestand left the Gophers 0-4 in B1G play & Gopher fans frustrated and shaking their heads (and probably uttering a few curse words), the Gophers got up off the deck and rebounded with road wins at (then ranked) #8 Indiana and Penn State.

The Gophers completely out of the NCAA Tournament picture just two weeks into the B1G calendar? Not so fast said the Gophers (with their play on the court) and their venerable fifth-year coach. The two road wins (the Gophers are now a solid 4-3 in road/neutral games), for now, were enough to keep the Gophers in my NCAA Tournament Field of 68 projection. They're currently one of my "last 4 in", which one week ago seemed impossible to a lot of Gopher fans, present company included. Now let's see if -- beginning next Sunday vs. Northwestern at Williams Arena -- the Gophers can build on that momentum and start working their way away from the bubble and toward the upper half of the B1G standings.

RPI's listed are through games played Saturday, January 14. An * denotes the conference leader/best RPI in a multiple-bid conference. For clarity, please note that for purposes of the conference leader, I consider 2-0 better than 1-0; other bracket projectors such as CollegeRPI.com's Jerry Palm, in those cases, tab the team with the best RPI as the conference leader. For example, I have the Ivy League with two bids this week because Penn has the best conference record (2-0), even though Harvard (1-0) has a much better RPI (#53).

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (1/15/12)
America East (1): Albany (178)

ACC (4): *Duke (2), North Carolina (23), Virginia (35), Florida State (47)

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (86)

Atlantic 10 (3): Temple (26),*Dayton (28), Xavier (42)

Big East (7): *Syracuse (1), UConn (4), Seton Hall (5), West Virginia (14), Marquette (17), Georgetown (18), Louisville (41)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (72)

Big South (1): UNC-Asheville (129)

B1G (9): *Michigan State (6), Illinois (10), Ohio State (11), Indiana (16), Northwestern (25), Michigan (27), GOPHERS (46), Purdue (50), Wisconsin (55)

Big 12 (4): *Baylor (3), Mizzou (13), Kansas (20), Kansas State (32)

Big West (1): Long Beach State (56)

Colonial (1): George Mason (115)

Conference USA (3): Southern Miss (15), Memphis (30), *Marshall (33)

Horizon (1): Milwaukee (94)

Ivy (2): Harvard (53), *Penn (122)

Metro Atlantic (1): Iona (40)

Mid-American (1): Akron (75)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (76)

Missouri Valley (3): *Creighton (12), Northern Iowa (21), Wichita State (37)

Mountain West (4): UNLV (9), *Colorado State (22), San Diego State (34), New Mexico (51)

Northeast (1): LIU (132)

Ohio Valley (1): Murray State (29)

Pac 12 (2): *Cal (38), Stanford (71)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (84)

SEC (5): *Kentucky (7), Alabama (19), Vandy (31), Mississippi State (36), Florida (45)

Southern (1): Davidson (43)

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington (150)

SWAC (1): *Texas Southern (165)

Summit (1): Oral Roberts (44)

Sun Belt (1): Middle Tennessee State (69)

West Coast (3): Gonzaga (8), *St. Mary's (24), BYU (39)

WAC (1): Nevada (74)
________________

Last 4 In: Northern Iowa (21), BYU (39), GOPHERS (46), New Mexico (51)

First 4 Out: Oregon (49), Saint Joseph's (52), NC State (58), Saint Louis (59)

Non-BCS At-Larges (12): Gonzaga (8), UNLV (9), Southern Miss (15), Northern Iowa (21), Temple (26), Memphis (30), San Diego State (34), Wichita State (37), BYU (39), Xavier (42), New Mexico (51), Harvard (53)

Others in the Mix: Denver (48), Iowa State (54), Miami-Florida (61), UMass (62), Texas (63), Arizona (65), UCF (68), LaSalle (81), VCU (82), Maryland (91), Richmond (92), Washington (98)

Next Field of 68 Projection: Wednesday, February 1 or Monday, February 6.

Lunardi and I have 3 differences as of today.

I have the Gophers, Northern Iowa and Southern Miss in the field of 68, in their place Lunardi has Cincinnati, Saint Louis and Texas.

Our "last 4 in" and "first 4 out" look like this:

Last 4 In
Lunardi: BYU, Cincinnati, Memphis, Northwestern
SS: BYU, Minnesota, New Mexico, Northern Iowa

First 4 Out
Lunardi: Iowa State, Minnesota, NC State, Southern Miss
SS: NC State, Oregon, Saint Joseph's, Saint Louis

Assuming you and Lunardi are correct, and given both of your track records that seems likely, it seems to me that it isn't really that hard to make the NCAA.

Perhaps celebrating a tournament berth isn't as meaningful as it used to be.

Winnipegopher said:

Perhaps celebrating a tournament berth isn't as meaningful as it used to be.

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No argument here, but (warning: cliche to follow) to have a chance you just gotta' make it to the dance.

Example A-1 = VCU last season. Snuck into the field, got roasted by the likes of Jay Bilas for being selected, ends up in Final 4 after beating teams from the Pac 10 (USC), Big East (Georgetown), Big Ten (Purdue), ACC (Florida State) and Big 12 (Kansas).

Winnipegopher said:

Assuming you and Lunardi are correct, and given both of your track records that seems likely, it seems to me that it isn't really that hard to make the NCAA.

Perhaps celebrating a tournament berth isn't as meaningful as it used to be.

Click to expand...

FWIW, it is still harder to make the tournament than it is a bowl game in college football (I think it's about 125 football teams eligible for 70 spots compared to 300+ basketball teams eligible for 68 spots)

Not fair to him, but I sure hope Julian's missed free throws against Illinois doesn't come back to haunt us. Looks like it might be that close.

scher215 said:

FWIW, it is still harder to make the tournament than it is a bowl game in college football (I think it's about 125 football teams eligible for 70 spots compared to 300+ basketball teams eligible for 68 spots)

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Good point.

I believe 70 of 120 make bowl games (58.3%).

68 of 344 (19.8%) will qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Adding all the postseason basketball tourneys together. ...

NCAA = 68
NIT = 32
CBI = 16
CIT = 24

140 of 344 (40.7%) make the postseason, still less than the percentage of bowl teams.

Though it's much easier than it used to be, those numbers still lead me to believe it means something to make the NCAA tourney. It would mean even more if the Gophers (whenever they get there) start surviving & advancing.

football/basketball comparison

SelectionSunday said:

Good point.

I believe 70 of 120 make bowl games (58.3%).

68 of 344 (19.8%) will qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Adding all the postseason basketball tourneys together. ...

NCAA = 68
NIT = 32
CBI = 16
CIT = 24

140 of 344 (40.7%) make the postseason, still less than the percentage of bowl teams.

Though it's much easier than it used to be, those numbers still lead me to believe it means something to make the NCAA tourney. It would mean even more if the Gophers (whenever they get there) start surviving & advancing.

Click to expand...

To me it does not make sense to compare NCAA football bowl qualifiers with hoops tourney qualifiers. A major difference is that the majority of NCAA DI basketball schools participate at the Football Championship Division, formerly D1-AA. In 2011 there were 126 FCS schools, and of those only 20 make it to the playoffs.

I don't mean this as a critique of SS, but this really irked me when coaches (ie Jim Boheim) used football as an arguement to expand the Field of 65.

Cetainly I don't want to imply that I'm for expanding the field further. As I said above, I still think it means something to make the NCAA tourney. However, any more expansion (to 96 has been talked about) and I think we'd be to the point where qualifying will hold no special significance. The words "watered down" come to mind. But we all had this same discussion here last year. ...

Just FYI, if you look at the BCS conferences only:
Basketball: Last year 36 of the 73 schools from the top conferences made the tourney (49.3%)
Football: This past season, 48 of 67 (I included ND) BCS schools made a bowl game (71.6%)

I'm also not hoping for expansion in basketball. Just reiterating that it is tougher to go to the tourney than it is a bowl game.

Bowls/Tourney

GophersInIowa said:

Just FYI, if you look at the BCS conferences only:
Basketball: Last year 36 of the 73 schools from the top conferences made the tourney (49.3%)
Football: This past season, 48 of 67 (I included ND) BCS schools made a bowl game (71.6%)

I'm also not hoping for expansion in basketball. Just reiterating that it is tougher to go to the tourney than it is a bowl game.

Click to expand...

That is a better comparison, using BCS conferences only. However, one could argue only 2 teams (2.9%) played in a Bowl that matters, the BCS Championship presented by All State. The rest were just for show, post-season exhibitions.

Also, there were 13 BCS schools that played in either the NIT (12) & CBI (1) which means 67.1% of BCS schools played in the 2011 post-season.

If we want to be one of the 36 of 73 top conference schools in the tourney, we really need to win a game that I think we should win against NU>