Marcus Fuller blog: Gophers’ guards are settling too much for outside shots

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Smith’s entire starting backcourt failed to make a single two-point field goal in the game. Yes. That’s right.
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Burke shoots 11 free throws and our guards attempt 4. Without Trev drawing fouls our guards have got to find a way tpenetratete and get to the rim. It's impossible to win on the road while being on the short end of the free throw battle. I'm talking attempts, not percentage so lets not argue that thing. Andre needs to step up, find some confidence and get in the flow. Mav needs to come off the bench.
 

A couple things in the article caught my eye. “Maybe we’re not as good on the perimeter as we thought we were,” Smith said. “We don’t have a dominant player at any position right now.” Also, “We were trying to run a play, but we just didn’t execute it properly,” Smith said. “You’ve got to execute the right way if things are going to work. They did a good job of switching out on Austin. Austin threw the ball back to Maverick when he should have brought it over on the other side. It was just bad execution.” Maybe Tubby starting to feel a sense of urgency?



This is from an earlier Marcus Fuller piece, it's kind of interesting. My apologies if it's been on the board previously.– Rivals.com actually rated Andre Hollins (No. 110) and fellow Gophers’ freshman Joe Coleman (No. 121) higher than Burke (No. 142) coming out of high school. All three were three-star prospects. Both Hollins and Coleman are more athletic and had more college-ready frames than Burke. But physical tools aside, they’ve yet to find roles where they can be most effective.

– Unlike Andre Hollins, Burke is a true point guard. A former high school teammate of Ohio State sophomore star Jared Sullinger, Burke played the point for his entire high school career. He scored a lot more (23 points to go with seven assists a game) as a senior at Northland High School in Columbus, Ohio last season. Andre Hollins was a shooting guard most of his high school career at Memphis White Station, playing behind Memphis guard Joe Jackson for three years. So trying to make the transition to point guard in college has been difficult for him. Junior college transfer Julian Welch struggled with it as well before moving to shooting guard, but I think he’s more ready to take on the point guard role now. At some point for the Gophers to play to their potential, I think Welch should move to the starting point guard spot and Andre Hollins should start at shooting guard. Ahanmisi could still play a big role coming off the bench or if either player gets in foul trouble. I actually like Ahanmisi with the second unit because the group lacks experience with players such as freshmen Joe Coleman, Elliott Eliason and Oto Osenieks and junior Andre Ingram.

– Northwestern’s Dave Sobolewski is another freshman point who is having an impressive season averaging eight points and four assists a game for the Wildcats. Sobolewski, who ranks second in the Big Ten in assist to turnover ratio (4.4), had 10 points and five assists in a blowout loss to Ohio State this week. He averages 33.3 minutes a game, which is tied with Burke for fifth in the league right behind Wisconsin’s senior point guard Jordan Taylor’s 33.8 minutes a game. Andre Hollins is averaging 17 minutes a game.
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
A couple things in the article caught my eye. “Maybe we’re not as good on the perimeter as we thought we were,” Smith said. “We don’t have a dominant player at any position right now.” Also, “We were trying to run a play, but we just didn’t execute it properly,” Smith said. “You’ve got to execute the right way if things are going to work. They did a good job of switching out on Austin. Austin threw the ball back to Maverick when he should have brought it over on the other side. It was just bad execution.” Maybe Tubby starting to feel a sense of urgency?



This is from an earlier Marcus Fuller piece, it's kind of interesting. My apologies if it's been on the board previously.– Rivals.com actually rated Andre Hollins (No. 110) and fellow Gophers’ freshman Joe Coleman (No. 121) higher than Burke (No. 142) coming out of high school. All three were three-star prospects. Both Hollins and Coleman are more athletic and had more college-ready frames than Burke. But physical tools aside, they’ve yet to find roles where they can be most effective.

– Unlike Andre Hollins, Burke is a true point guard. A former high school teammate of Ohio State sophomore star Jared Sullinger, Burke played the point for his entire high school career. He scored a lot more (23 points to go with seven assists a game) as a senior at Northland High School in Columbus, Ohio last season. Andre Hollins was a shooting guard most of his high school career at Memphis White Station, playing behind Memphis guard Joe Jackson for three years. So trying to make the transition to point guard in college has been difficult for him. Junior college transfer Julian Welch struggled with it as well before moving to shooting guard, but I think he’s more ready to take on the point guard role now. At some point for the Gophers to play to their potential, I think Welch should move to the starting point guard spot and Andre Hollins should start at shooting guard. Ahanmisi could still play a big role coming off the bench or if either player gets in foul trouble. I actually like Ahanmisi with the second unit because the group lacks experience with players such as freshmen Joe Coleman, Elliott Eliason and Oto Osenieks and junior Andre Ingram.

– Northwestern’s Dave Sobolewski is another freshman point who is having an impressive season averaging eight points and four assists a game for the Wildcats. Sobolewski, who ranks second in the Big Ten in assist to turnover ratio (4.4), had 10 points and five assists in a blowout loss to Ohio State this week. He averages 33.3 minutes a game, which is tied with Burke for fifth in the league right behind Wisconsin’s senior point guard Jordan Taylor’s 33.8 minutes a game. Andre Hollins is averaging 17 minutes a game.
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I agree with what you are saying there Ray. Only point I would like to add is that I wish there were not "first and second groups". I wish Tubby would sprinkle in his substitutions so that a kid like Hollins would be playing with two or three of the starters. You are bound to lose confidence when you are out there with a bunch of guys that are not both inexperienced and non-scorers for the most part. This idea of bringing in all 5 new players after 7 minutes into the game is nuts and it has burned us most games. In a lot of cases the other team has three or four starters out there versus our subs. Totally agree that the best situation would be Andre and Welch as the starting guards. It might not look great right away but it would be the best thing for the team in the long haul.
 

I'm assuming he plays the groups that practice together because they are more comfortable with whom they play with the most. Perhaps it is time to try some different combos in practice.
 


From the Barn said:
I'm assuming he plays the groups that practice together because they are more comfortable with whom they play with the most. Perhaps it is time to try some different combos in practice.
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That's what I've always thought too. Unfortunately, this year it does not work as well with so much inexperience on the second line. I agree, time to try something else.
 

I only read the title of this thread (and not the blog) but virtually every time the guards drove vs. Michigan it was unsuccessful. I don't think it was a case of settling too much for jump shots...I think it was a case of being too ineffective when they drove.
 

bga1 said:
I agree with what you are saying there Ray. Only point I would like to add is that I wish there were not "first and second groups". I wish Tubby would sprinkle in his substitutions so that a kid like Hollins would be playing with two or three of the starters. You are bound to lose confidence when you are out there with a bunch of guys that are not both inexperienced and non-scorers for the most part. This idea of bringing in all 5 new players after 7 minutes into the game is nuts and it has burned us most games. In a lot of cases the other team has three or four starters out there versus our subs. Totally agree that the best situation would be Andre and Welch as the starting guards. It might not look great right away but it would be the best thing for the team in the long haul.
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That was all Marcus Fuller. I didn't do a very good job distinquishing that. You're certainly not alone on your dislike of the full scale substitutions that Tubby employs.
 

The only guard so far that is able to penetrate and create shots is Armelin. I just haven't seen anyone else do it with any consistancy and actually score. I think Armelin and Welch migh be the best combination if Armelin can learn to dump it to Welch if he is covered and doesn't have a shot.

I thought that Osenieks created some scoring oppertunies for himself. He got three inside buckets while being covered pretty closely.
 



From FBT:

Tubby Smith's crew dropped to 0-2 in Big Ten play yesterday after losing to #18 Michigan 61-56 at Crisler Arena. It's a "what could have been" moment, the second consecutive out of this group, due to two extremely poor possessions with under a minute and half left in the game. Maverick Ahanmisi airballed a three that wouldn't have counted as the shot clock expired, Tim Hardaway's kid hit a clutch jumper to put the Wolverines up 3 with 42 seconds left, culminating in Rodney Williams clanking a 3 pointer before Michigan iced the game from the line. The Gophers struggled on the boards (outrebounded 34-26) and couldn't get to the charity stripe (8 attempts versus 23 for the Wolverines), continuing a season long struggle in both areas sans Trevor Mbakwe, as the team is now 111th in FT attempts and 225th in rebounding nationally.

Part of the problem, as Marcus Fuller feels, is the guards are settling for too many outside shots and not getting the ball inside or moving the ball for better looks. Ralph Sampson III, everyone's favorite whipping post, took only 5 shots after coming off a 22 point, 9 rebound game against Illinois. Per 40 minutes, the Gopher attempting the most field goals? Yep, none other than Chip "Don't do it" Armelin, throwing up 15.02 FGs per 40 minutes -- 2.61 more attempts than RS3 despite the fact that Ralph plays 8 more minutes per game and is shooting .518% from the field to Armelin's .446%. In order, the FGA/40MIN ratios show off the Gophers' guard heavy jack-up-em-joe mentality: Armelin, Sampson, Julian Welch (11.34), Andre Hollins (10.71), Austin Hollins (10.63), Oto Osenieks (10.36), Joe Coleman (8.80) and Rodney (8.71), See a pattern? The Gopher perimeter players are hogging the shots, while the players with the highest field goal percentages (Sampson, Rodney and Elliott Eliason) are -- outside of Ralph -- not taking enough shots. Rodney in particular has a "true shooting percentage" of .618%, a hair better than Welch for the team lead. What does that have to do with anything? Well, if you want the ball in the hands of your most efficient offensive players, then Rodney, Welch and Ralph should not only play more minutes but also handle more of the offensive load, while Aremlin (TS% of .480, worst of the regular rotation players) should get the ball less (and/or play less minutes). What does Tubby think?

We still run the motion offense; we play a high-low type style,” he said. “We’re not attacking offensively as much in transition. That’s probably because we’re not getting the ball and (outlet passing). That’s probably because we’re not rebounding as well. Trevor was a very solid player. But he was only averaging 14 points. It wasn’t like he was averaging 25 points a game for us. So we’ve become a little more perimeter-oriented. (The guards) are getting more shots."
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In this case, Tubby can (and should) direct his point guards to put the ball in the hands of players that actually shoot well or make a high percentage of shots in their given areas, like the paint for RS3 and Rodney or along the perimeter for Welch. Everyone else? Quit jacking up threes: yes, I am looking at you Chip, Andre, Austin and Maverick.

Now, if you follow Sagarin Predictor ratings, the Gophers would have lost the Illinois and Michigan games anyway and would, keeping everything constant for the remainder of the season, finish 7-10 in the Big Ten with the home game against Purdue a toss-up. So while it's true that we more than likely would have lost to the Illini and Wolverines, a chance to steal a win or two early on the B1G slate could likely have made the difference between a possible (using the term possible very liberally here) earning an NCAA tournament bid versus settling for the NIT. Now, the squad will likely be forced to win every game they should, take down the toss-up game against the Fighting Hummels and score an upset without suffering a bad loss. Finding a spot on the schedule for such an upset is difficult: Sagarin predictor ratings project only two wins on the road (Nebraska and Iowa) while also hinting at a dismal stretch in February where the Gophers could lose six straight (Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana and at Wisconsin). I'll continue to hold off on predicting doom and gloom and the end of the OTS era in Minneapolis for now, though I do expect things to get even rockier along the way. Pulling a somewhat meaningless 20 win season out of this group would effectively qualify as a hollow accomplishment given what could have been -- especially after all that's gone down in the last two years with Gopher hoops.
 

jovs said:
The only guard so far that is able to penetrate and create shots is Armelin. I just haven't seen anyone else do it with any consistancy and actually score. I think Armelin and Welch migh be the best combination if Armelin can learn to dump it to Welch if he is covered and doesn't have a shot.

I thought that Osenieks created some scoring oppertunies for himself. He got three inside buckets while being covered pretty closely.
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Agree re: Armelin + Welch combination
 

RoyalGopher said:
From FBT:

Tubby Smith's crew dropped to 0-2 in Big Ten play yesterday after losing to #18 Michigan 61-56 at Crisler Arena. It's a "what could have been" moment, the second consecutive out of this group, due to two extremely poor possessions with under a minute and half left in the game. Maverick Ahanmisi airballed a three that wouldn't have counted as the shot clock expired, Tim Hardaway's kid hit a clutch jumper to put the Wolverines up 3 with 42 seconds left, culminating in Rodney Williams clanking a 3 pointer before Michigan iced the game from the line. The Gophers struggled on the boards (outrebounded 34-26) and couldn't get to the charity stripe (8 attempts versus 23 for the Wolverines), continuing a season long struggle in both areas sans Trevor Mbakwe, as the team is now 111th in FT attempts and 225th in rebounding nationally.

Part of the problem, as Marcus Fuller feels, is the guards are settling for too many outside shots and not getting the ball inside or moving the ball for better looks. Ralph Sampson III, everyone's favorite whipping post, took only 5 shots after coming off a 22 point, 9 rebound game against Illinois. Per 40 minutes, the Gopher attempting the most field goals? Yep, none other than Chip "Don't do it" Armelin, throwing up 15.02 FGs per 40 minutes -- 2.61 more attempts than RS3 despite the fact that Ralph plays 8 more minutes per game and is shooting .518% from the field to Armelin's .446%. In order, the FGA/40MIN ratios show off the Gophers' guard heavy jack-up-em-joe mentality: Armelin, Sampson, Julian Welch (11.34), Andre Hollins (10.71), Austin Hollins (10.63), Oto Osenieks (10.36), Joe Coleman (8.80) and Rodney (8.71), See a pattern? The Gopher perimeter players are hogging the shots, while the players with the highest field goal percentages (Sampson, Rodney and Elliott Eliason) are -- outside of Ralph -- not taking enough shots. Rodney in particular has a "true shooting percentage" of .618%, a hair better than Welch for the team lead. What does that have to do with anything? Well, if you want the ball in the hands of your most efficient offensive players, then Rodney, Welch and Ralph should not only play more minutes but also handle more of the offensive load, while Aremlin (TS% of .480, worst of the regular rotation players) should get the ball less (and/or play less minutes). What does Tubby think?



In this case, Tubby can (and should) direct his point guards to put the ball in the hands of players that actually shoot well or make a high percentage of shots in their given areas, like the paint for RS3 and Rodney or along the perimeter for Welch. Everyone else? Quit jacking up threes: yes, I am looking at you Chip, Andre, Austin and Maverick.

Now, if you follow Sagarin Predictor ratings, the Gophers would have lost the Illinois and Michigan games anyway and would, keeping everything constant for the remainder of the season, finish 7-10 in the Big Ten with the home game against Purdue a toss-up. So while it's true that we more than likely would have lost to the Illini and Wolverines, a chance to steal a win or two early on the B1G slate could likely have made the difference between a possible (using the term possible very liberally here) earning an NCAA tournament bid versus settling for the NIT. Now, the squad will likely be forced to win every game they should, take down the toss-up game against the Fighting Hummels and score an upset without suffering a bad loss. Finding a spot on the schedule for such an upset is difficult: Sagarin predictor ratings project only two wins on the road (Nebraska and Iowa) while also hinting at a dismal stretch in February where the Gophers could lose six straight (Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana and at Wisconsin). I'll continue to hold off on predicting doom and gloom and the end of the OTS era in Minneapolis for now, though I do expect things to get even rockier along the way. Pulling a somewhat meaningless 20 win season out of this group would effectively qualify as a hollow accomplishment given what could have been -- especially after all that's gone down in the last two years with Gopher hoops.
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The reason Chip takes more shots is because he is one of very few Gophers that shows the ability and desire to create his own shot. The reason Ralph does not is because he doesn't post up that well, and he really doesn't appear to even want the ball in the low post that much. He would rather shoot perimeter shots and running hooks it appears. We really don't have a good post up player in the lineup. Rodney gets stuff off movement, putbacks and short drives to the bucket.
 

bga1 said:
The reason Chip takes more shots is because he is one of very few Gophers that shows the ability and desire to create his own shot. The reason Ralph does not is because he doesn't post up that well, and he really doesn't appear to even want the ball in the low post that much. He would rather shoot perimeter shots and running hooks it appears. We really don't have a good post up player in the lineup. Rodney gets stuff off movement, putbacks and short drives to the bucket.
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IMO, Mo Walker has the best post game of anyone. Including Trevor (Although, had henot gotten hurt that could have changed). Based on the little bit Mo played last year, he has very good touch and seems to be smart with the ball. I think the team misses him more than many realize and he will be a big help for the next three years.
 



Quit jacking up threes: yes, I am looking at you Chip, Andre, Austin and Maverick.
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Andre and Austin are shooting over 40% from behind the arch.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Andre and Austin are shooting over 40% from behind the arch.
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Yeah, I'm not sure why they were included in the rant?

I am even fine with Mav shooting wide open three's. Rodney is probably the only started I'd red light from 3. Chip can if he's wide open and Elliot, never ever.
 

bga1 said:
The reason Chip takes more shots is because he is one of very few Gophers that shows the ability and desire to create his own shot. The reason Ralph does not is because he doesn't post up that well, and he really doesn't appear to even want the ball in the low post that much. He would rather shoot perimeter shots and running hooks it appears. We really don't have a good post up player in the lineup. Rodney gets stuff off movement, putbacks and short drives to the bucket.
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Also, Armelin is shooting over 50% from 2P range; he obviously needs to be more judicious in his use of the 3P shot, however.
 

Of course, part of the reason guys like Rodney and Ralph are shooting better is simply because they only take good shots for the most part. If they started putting up more shots, they would probably see their percentages drop.

Chip can create some shots, but when I watch him, he pretty much doesn't do that, he takes a lot of long range shots (2pt or 3pt) so it's not like he's exactly doing that.

I think we're seeing a symptom of a lot of young guards who just flat out don't have the experience out there, especially together, to know where guys want the ball and where people are gonna be. If we get to March and we're still having that same problem, it'll be more concerning, but right now, I'm not sure we're gonna see a very cohesive offensive unit, especially in the B1G in road games.

They just gotta keep scrapping and hopefully there will come a moment when they can get some of these wins they "coulda" had.
 

I can't agree with the guard shooting stuff..

First, Eliason can't shoot well. Rodney cannot create shots and many of his shots (and misses) have come from jumpers. Go look at the last game.. it was the second or third possession of the game.. he threw up a 17 foot jumper that missed. Rodney's high percentage is from when he gets a dunk or layup, often in transition or off the boards... Minnesota can't just decide to feed him the ball in the half court offense and believe good things will happen.

In the Michigan game, Minnesota shot an eFG% of 51%. Last year in 19 games against teams from the Big Ten, the Gophers shot 51% or better 5 times. I'll take 51%, _especially_ when guys are hitting treys.

As for who should be shooting from the outside... definitely there are some that shoot shots they should not. But... outside shooting certainly wasn't Minnesota's issue against Michigan.
 



scher215 said:
IMO, Mo Walker has the best post game of anyone. Including Trevor (Although, had he not gotten hurt that could have changed). Based on the little bit Mo played last year, he has very good touch and seems to be smart with the ball. I think the team misses him more than many realize and he will be a big help for the next three years.
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Walker showed some potential but lets not get carried away. Trevor's post game although raw was unstoppable one on one.
 

march madness said:
Walker showed some potential but lets not get carried away. Trevor's post game although raw was unstoppable one on one.
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Trevor does a lot of things extremely well, his one on one post play was far from unstoppable.
 

Yep 60% from the floor and getting to the line 8 times a game sounds like a bad post player to me.
 

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