Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers' Nonconf Schedule Not Nearly as Bad as Advertised?

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Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers' Nonconference Schedule Not Nearly as Bad as Advertised?
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/125830?referrer_id=331171

Much has been made, said and read about the Gophers' 2011-12 nonconference schedule, most of it not particularly flattering. Because I'm a believer in full disclosure, it's important to note I've been on record about three things (prior to the season & since it started) pertaining to the Gophers' nonconference opposition: (1) It's nice to see multiple BCS conference opponents (Virginia Tech & USC) on the home schedule, a rarity in these parts; (2) The overall NC schedule is fine, and if after losing Trevor Mbakwe the Gophers are fortunate enough to land on the bubble next March, they'll have a couple solid wins outside of B1G play to which they can point; and (3) I'm disappointed there isn't a true road game. ... I think every major-conference team needs at least one of those every season.

You can argue the schedule could or should have been tougher -- no argument from this guy -- but I'm confident the numbers at the end of the season will reflect the Gophers played a competitive, if not spectacular, November-December slate.

To that end, we're far enough into the season where we can turn to Jerry Palm's fantastic collegerpi.com web site. There you will find RPI data that, in my opinion, accurately portrays a snapshot of how the Gophers have scheduled in comparison to other B1G schools. So take this information for what you think it's worth, something to chew on, and we'll chat again in March to see if the Gophers' nonconference slate/opponents stood the test of time between January and March. In the meantime, go Gophers (get to 9-9 in the B1G so NCAA talk isn't a moot point), go Fairfield, go Indiana State, go Virginia Tech and go Dayton.

All RPI information is through games played Sunday, December 18.

B1G in the RPI
12. Wisconsin
19. GOPHERS
27. Ohio State
31. Michigan State
36. Indiana
39. Illinois
41. Northwestern
43. Michigan
84. Purdue
124. Nebraska
185. Iowa
191. Penn State

B1G Strength of Schedule (there are 344 D-I teams)
31. Wisconsin
44. Michigan State
73. GOPHERS
81. Michigan
106. Northwestern
113. Ohio State
135. Illinois
165. Iowa
175. Purdue
188. Nebraska
199. Indiana
231. Penn State

RPI Killers (Opponents played with RPI of 250+)
Wisconsin (0)
Northwestern (1) -- Texas-Pan American (287)
Ohio State (2) -- VMI (251), Texas-Pan American (287)
Michigan State (2) -- Bowling Green (252), Arkansas-Little Rock (318)
Michigan (2) -- Arkansas-Pine Bluff (256), Towson (329)
Purdue (2) -- High Point (293), Northern Illinois (335)
Illinois (2) -- Chicago State (309), SIU-Edwardsville (317)
Indiana (3) -- Gardner-Webb (277), Evansville (279), Chattanooga (315)
GOPHERS (3) -- St. Peter's (278), Appalachian State (304), Mount St. Mary's (308)
Nebraska (4) -- Alcorn State (250), Florida Gulf Coast (254), South Dakota (264), Rhode Island (290)
Penn State (4) -- Boston College (268), Radford (295), Mount St. Mary's (308), Hartford (340)
Iowa (4) -- Brown (298), Chicago State (309), North Carolina A&T (312), Northern Illinois (335)

Top-50 Wins
Ohio State (2) -- Duke (1), Florida (44)
Purdue (2) -- vs. Iona (13), vs. Temple (47)
GOPHERS (2) -- vs. Indiana State (25), Virginia Tech (45)
Michigan State (2) -- @ Gonzaga (28), Florida State (46)
Northwestern (1) -- vs. Seton Hall (5)
Wisconsin (1) -- UNLV (8)
Indiana (1) -- Kentucky (18)
Illinois (1) -- Gonzaga (28)
Nebraska (1) -- @ TCU (48)

Top-50 Losses
Penn State (3) -- @ Saint Joseph's (11), vs. Kentucky (18), Ole Miss (38)
Michigan (2) -- vs. Duke (1), @ Virginia (22)
Michigan State (2) -- vs. Duke (1), vs. North Carolina (24)
Iowa (2) -- @ Northern Iowa (3), vs. Creighton (35)
Wisconsin (2) -- Marquette (9), @ North Carolina (24)
Purdue (2) -- vs. Alabama (14), @ Xavier (29)
Illinois (1) -- vs. UNLV (8)
Ohio State (1) -- @ Kansas (20)
GOPHERS (1) -- vs. Dayton (25)
Nebraska (1) -- @ Creighton (35)
Northwestern (1) -- Baylor (50)

Discuss if you like.

I'll hit you with my next RTSS (a "Field of 68" projection) sometime between Dec. 26 and the New Year. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all, and make sure you watch Cousin Eddy in "Christmas Vacation" to lighten up your holiday season!
 

The only aspect I find really disappointing is the no road games at all thing. I think that's gonna haunt us early in conference. Those first two trips to Illinois and Michigan could be a mess. BUT, if they find a way to get one of those two, that could be huge.

I think our schedule has had some teams that were solid, but nothing spectacular. We just didn't have any marquee teams on the slate, like we've had in the past. But there was a quantity of solid teams in there. Now, they just need to play solid ball at home, get a bunch of conference wins there, and try to steal a few on the road.

If we can go like 7-2 at home, then you only gotta take a couple road games in order to go .500. Going 7-2 at home is gonna be a tough task, but if we're NCAA worthy, we have to be able to do it IMO.

And of course, WHICH wins you get also is a big factor. Score a couple major ones like an OSU win, and suddenly your margin for error grows.
 

Moreso than any other recent season, I agree it's paramount the Gophers protect their home court (think Clem's 1989 NCAA team. ... studly at home, awful on the road). I don't see this team winning more than 2 B1G road games (and no, Penn State & Iowa won't be gimmes'), so they'll need to be stellar at home. And if we go 7-2 at Williams, that would be a Herculean effort.
 

...make sure you watch Cousin Eddy in "Christmas Vacation" to lighten up your holiday season!

Absolutely one of the best acting jobs in all of filming. However, Snots the dog also amazes me every time I watch the Griswold Christmas.
 

I'll look at projections throughout the year and glance at estimated actual RPI starting in mid-March, but not a big fan of the RPI. The more interesting part for me at this point is looking at potential good wins, awful wins and good losses. The Gophers need Indiana St. and Virginia Tech to play better than expected the rest of the way to have any top 50 RPI nonconference victories this year, but having no top 50 RPI nonconference wins isn't the end of the world relative to the RPI figure. Bigger concern is the number of 'RPI killers' and while the Gophers have a handful of awful opponents, most other teams do as well.

As of today, Minnesota's RPI is grossly overrated due in part to its high winning percentage. However, It looks like if Minnesota can beat NDSU and then go 8-10 in Big Ten play, they could be sitting with an RPI of around 50, maybe a little bit lower.

SS, do you know what, from a historical perspective (understanding we're just into year 2 of of the field of 68 and the first year with 12 Big 1? teams, but looking at past fields of 64/65), has happened with Big Ten teams (received tourney bid?) with an RPI of around 45-50 and a sub-.500 conference record?
 



I think we catch a little bit of a break playin at Illinois and Michigan right away in the Big Ten Season. Students will be on vacation meaning a little less of a home court advantage!
 

Gopher Warrior said:
SS, do you know what, from a historical perspective (understanding we're just into year 2 of of the field of 68 and the first year with 12 Big 1? teams, but looking at past fields of 64/65), has happened with Big Ten teams (received tourney bid?) with an RPI of around 45-50 and a sub-.500 conference record?
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GW, here's what I found @ collegerpi.com. Since the 1993-94 season, only one B1G team has finished with a sub-.500 regular-season conference record yet still ended with a RPI between 45-50. That team was Illinois in 1995-96. The Illini finished 7-11 with a RPI of 49 & did not receive a NCAA bid.

Since the 1993-94 season, four B1G teams have received at-large NCAA bids despite finishing with sub-.500 regular-season conference records:

1. 1993-94 Wisconsin (8-10, #30 RPI) -- This was the Michael Finley/Rashard Griffith team. ... how was that team not better than 8-10?
2. 1998-99 Purdue (7-9, #25 RPI)
3. 2000-01 Penn State (7-9, #24 RPI) -- Ended up in the Sweet 16.
4. 2004-05 Iowa (7-9, #43 RPI)

That data suggests the Gophers need to get to 9-9, especially if they don't record a "signature" win the likes the Louisville one they notched in 2008-09. A win over Ohio State (not seeing it, but stranger things have happened) certainly would qualify.
 

Dr.Don said:
...make sure you watch Cousin Eddy in "Christmas Vacation" to lighten up your holiday season!

Absolutely one of the best acting jobs in all of filming. However, Snots the dog also amazes me every time I watch the Griswold Christmas.
Click to expand...

Agree, Randy Quaid doesn't get enough credit for his portrayal of Cousin Eddy. And Snots certainly was appropriately named.
 




Illinois is struggling now - getting whupped by UNLV and a close call vs. Cornell. That 1st Big10 game is huge - we can win that one.
 


SS and your OP Title..."Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers' Nonconf Schedule Not Nearly as Bad as Advertised? "


This is all just another example that if the Gophers don't have 4, 5, or 6 Big name opponents that the so-called fans know more than Tubby and the crew.

So, I maintain, play and schedule whom you can, when you can, where you can. And then beat the *&^!#*&^!#*&^!#*&^!# out of them all, Including NDSU coming up on the 22nd.

Go Gophers!!!
 




Good Dr., I'm not saying it's a great nonconference schedule, just pointing out that this particular schedule isn't the piece of dung that it's being portrayed as. It's nothing to be embarrassed about, save no true road game. Folks need to gander at some of the other nonconference schedules (of major programs) floating around out there before they proclaim the Gophers' as gosh-awful.

Anyways, when I fuss about the Gophers' nonconference schedule, it's gonna' be more about the home opponents than the overall schedule. This is the first one in 5 years that, when it was released, I thought it was a solid home slate with the appropriate amount of cupcakes (2-3). Two BCS opponents (or the rough equivalent) was what I most liked seeing. I don't have a problem with how or who they (Tubby/Esposito) scheduled. Main thing that hurt this home schedule was catching a bad break with USC being dreadful.
 

Always nice to have an in-house expert - Thanks SS. Should be an interesting ride, always is
 

Interesting that the Big 10 is the number one rated conference in Sagarin and I believe the RPI ratings as well in what everyone thought would be a down year.

I have not heard all the national experts proclaiming how strong the Big 10 is and screaming about how it is the top conference in the land. Maybe nobody has noticed yet. Given that the OOC is basically done, it is not likely to lose the top spot all year.

It is going to be a very exciting Big 10 season to say the least.
 

Agree GV that it'll be an exciting season to watch. I was expecting the B1G to be a little down this season and am a little surprised how well it has performed in November and December.

I'd put Indiana at the top of that list. Coming into the season I think I had the Hoosiers pegged at 8th. Even though as a whole their schedule has been soft, was impressed by the win at NC State and obviously the one vs. UK. Zeller's living up to the hype -- he's going to be a beast -- and the starting 5 is solid & looks much improved.

Even so, IU's reward for finishing the NC sked 12-0? How about @ Michigan State, followed by Ohio State and Michigan in Bloomington. Win 2 of those 3 and the Hoosiers will be off & running.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Agree GV that it'll be an exciting season to watch. I was expecting the B1G to be a little down this season and am a little surprised how well it has performed in November and December.

I'd put Indiana at the top of that list. Coming into the season I think I had the Hoosiers pegged at 8th. Even though as a whole their schedule has been soft, was impressed by the win at NC State and obviously the one vs. UK. Zeller's living up to the hype -- he's going to be a beast -- and the starting 5 is solid & looks much improved.

Even so, IU's reward for finishing the NC sked 12-0? How about @ Michigan State, followed by Ohio State and Michigan in Bloomington. Win 2 of those 3 and the Hoosiers will be off & running.
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What do you make of Nebraska? Badgers open there next week. I have no idea what to expect.

If I were an Indiana fan, I would be really concerned with Jones. I would still not trust him in a tight game in the Big 10 where each possession becomes so important. As you also mentioned, their schedule has been very soft. Still, hard to overlook what they did at NC State and with Kentucky.

For all the hand wringing on this board, I find the Gophers interesting. If they would just cut down on the silly turnovers, I think they can be very dangerous. Very interested to see how they do on the road in conference. Welch looks like a really nice player and Coleman seems to have a lot of potential and certainly a Big 10 body. Consistency from some of their front line players will be the key. What if Williams and Sampson brought their best game every night? If they do, the Gophers should be very competitive, even with the injury.

Not many gimmes this year in the Big 10.
 

GVBadger said:
What do you make of Nebraska?. ...

Welch looks like a really nice player and Coleman seems to have a lot of potential and certainly a Big 10 body. ... What if Williams and Sampson brought their best game every night?. ...

Not many gimmes this year in the Big 10.
Click to expand...

Nebraska will be competitive, especially at home. Lincoln isn't a place where I'd chalk up a W for anyone save for Ohio State.

Have been impressed with Welch from the get-go. He's not flashy, but he's a solid player. Most impressed with his hands. Seems like he strips a guy for a layup once or twice a game. I hope Tubby continues to give Coleman minutes. He'll take plenty of freshman lumps, but I like his agressiveness. He's like Armelin in that regard. If Williams and Ralph bring it every night, we'll be fine. However, I don't think that's a realistic expectation.

Definitely not may gimmes'. As a Gopher fan & knowing there's no Mbakwe, IMO these are the games they really gotta' get to allow for some margin of error:

Iowa at home
Purdue at home (in that 2nd/3rd tier with Gophers; only meeting makes it especially important)
@ Penn State
Northwestern at home (2nd/3rd tier with Gophers)
Illinois at home (2nd/3rd tier with Gophers)
@ Iowa
Indiana at home (2nd/3rd tier with Gophers)
 

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