Pewterschmidt
02-16-2009, 05:23 PM
Here's my '09 Minnesota Twins preview. As always, it's a long read. Hope you enjoy it. For those that are wondering why I do this or have new to the site...the research allows me to get myself excited for the upcoming season. I'm a lifelong Twins fan and few things are better than the start of the baseball season. I watch almost every game and I do have a particular interest in the players in the minors. I've spent the past 6 years living in Madison and have attended several Beloit Snappers games so most of the prospects I've seen in action.
2008 Summary:
The '08 version of the Twins was the opposite of a traditional Hollywood movie. Most movies start with a positive situation with high expectations and likeable new characters. Then an antagonist is introduced with a negative plot twist. It ends with a resurrection of the good guy with an uplifting ending. See the opposite parallels? Most prognosticators (me included) wrote off the Twins before the calendar switched to April. The Twins had just lost the most dominating pitcher in baseball (Santana) and their crowd favorite (Hunter) The numerous new faces struggled from the beginning (outside of Livan Hernandez's first 5 starts) and mostly were responsible for the sub .500 record entering Father's Day. Instead of the team withering away with the introduction of lackluster prospects and major question marks entering the scene in mid-summer to replace the disappointing veterans, a rebirth took place. Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, and Francisco Liriano all entered (or re-entered in Liriano's case) the scene and made a big splash. The streak lasted thru August and eventually got the team into first place for almost 2 months. The team was flying high and playing with an energy dearly missing the previous season. The regulars performed. Mauer once again led the AL in batting. Morneau was an MVP runner up. Nathan was once again a stud closer. The mixture of the studs with the high flying youngsters created a dynamic that led to a playoff chase. Like a thud, the positive streak ended in September. Morneau stopped producing. The young pitching staff was wearing down. The magic started to disappear. Thankfully for the Twins, the opponent in the race for the AL Central crown was also faltering. The White Sox seemed to lose every time the Twins lost, keeping the race neck and neck...to the point where 162 games weren't enough. With a flip of a coin, the White Sox gained home field advantage for that decisive game but that didn't deter Blackburn from pitching the best game of his life, with the exception of one pitch. That pitch resulted in a souvenir for a fan and the only run in the 1-0 loss for the Twins. Like the last 4 weeks for the season, the Twins hit the skids because their bats went silent. In all, the season was a success. It brought a summer full of excitement and introduced us to a handful of players for the first time that will determine future success. While it ended on a sour note, it gave hope to all Twins fans that the future may be brighter than first thought.
Camp Roster (players with projected stats are likely to make the team out if spring training)
Pitchers (Age on Opening Day/W-L, ERA, IP, K's, BB, WHIP)
Scott Baker - 27 yo - 11-4, 3.45, 172.1, 141, 42, 1.18
- Predicted '09 stats: 13-9, 3.60 ERA
- Injuries kept Baker's '08 season from being great. When he was healthy, he was one of the reasons the Twins had a 163rd game. At 27 yo, he's just entering his prime and might be tagged with the #1 starter description. He can strike guys out and when he keeps the ball down, he can be as effective as any starter in the league. While he's not Santana, he has a chance to have a better career than Radke.
Francisco Liriano - 25 yo - 6-4, 3.91, 76, 67, 32, 1.39
- Predicted '09 stats: 11-7, 3.30 ERA
- Let's just forget Liriano's April in '08. That's not him. The Twins forced him along and while it was wishful thinking he could come back and make an immediate positive impact, the reality was that he needed some time in AAA to refine his pitches and build up his arm strength. When he returned in August, he was much closer to the Liriano that wowed the world in '06. It goes without saying that Liriano has Cy Young potential and fans should be encouraged with his '08 finish. However, Liriano's best pitch is his slider and that might have been responsible for his elbow injury in the first place. Rick Anderson his tweaked with his throwing motion but the possibility exists that Liriano peaked in '06 and that he'll never be the lights-out pitcher everyone thought he would be. Regardless, he's still viewed as a #1 or #2 pitcher and if he can stay healthy, he'll play this game at a high level for a long time. Work ethic has been questioned but to his credit, he did prove himself in the minors in '08 and it warranted a promotion in August.
Kevin Slowey - 24 yo - 12-11, 3.99, 160.1, 123, 24, 1.15
- Predicted '09 stats: 16-8, 3.40 ERA
- Want to see the antithesis of Carlos Gomez? It's Slowey. It wouldn't shock me if they were polar opposites in everything they do in life. That might be a good thing for Slowey on the mound where composure and precision are qualities. While he's not overpowering, he can wear a hitter out by hitting all of his spots with rare consistency. His 1.15 WHIP is a great sign for someone his age and it may not be long until Slowey is considered one of the top pitchers in the league. His 3.99 ERA is high for the rest of his indicators so expect it to drop in '09. He's my pick for breakout player on the staff and don't be surprised if his K/inning increases. He'll never lead the league in K's but if he can keep the ball in the park on a consistent basis, he is a candidate to lead the league in other categories.
Nick Blackburn - 27 yo - 11-11, 4.05, 193.1, 96, 39, 1.36
- Predicted '09 stats: 8-12, 4.60 ERA
- Feast or Famine. Blackburn's '08 season had some fantastic starts and some big time blunders. He seems to wear down in August and September, which might be explained away as he pitched more innings than he had ever pitched. He did pitch the play-in game and pitched extremely well outside of the solo homer in the 1-0 loss so he might have the intestinal fortitude to be a big game pitcher. Definitely not a strikeout pitcher, Blackburn is most effective when he changes speeds and works the corners. Like most other pitchers coming thru the organization, he's a control pitcher and he showed as much in '08. He will never be a front line starter but could find a nitch in the 4th slot for a long career in baseball.
Glen Perkins - 26 yo, 12-4, 4.41, 151, 74, 39, 1.47
- Predicted '09 stats: 9-8, 4.20 ERA
- His '08 record is an aberration given his other numbers. He has had some control problems and gets hit hard frequently. What's puzzling about Perkins is he was a strikeout pitcher in the minors. That hasn't translated in the bigs, especially last year when he struck out only 74 in 151 innings. It's nice to have 2 lefties in the rotation but if Perkins regresses in '09, his career path might move to the pen. The former Gopher and 1st rounder has learned to control his emotions. Now he has to find that "out" pitch that made him a top prospect, otherwise he's destined to be moved out of the rotation and into long relief.
Joe Nathan - 34 yo - 1-2, 1.33, 67.2, 74, 18, 0.90, 39 saves
- Predicted '09 stats: 2-2, 1.60 ERA, 42 saves
- Many superlatives can be assigned to Nathan. I won't bother listing them all. What needs to be said is Nathan is the difference between the Twins being the Reds and the Twins being in their current state. Many questioned the logic in signing a top flight closer to a long term deal for a team predicted to be .500 at best. The Twins showed the move was a wise one. The only concern is he's 34 yo and the zip on his fastball might start declining soon.
Jesse Crain - 27 yo - 5-4, 3.59, 62.2, 50, 24, 1.37
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-4, 3.90 ERA
- Crain always seems to be hurt. That's not a good label to have as a pitcher. When completely healthy, Crain has a fastball that can miss bats. The Twins need a healthy Crain in '09 because he's the best candidate to be the primary setup man. It's painfully obvious the Twins need to get the lead to Nathan and it was a problem in '08. Crain can really help his perception in '09 by filling that role competently.
Luis Ayala - (Wash and NYM) - 2-10, 5.71, 75.2, 50, 24, 1.45
- Predicted '09 stats: 3-5, 4.50 ERA
- As of right now, Ayala is the "biggest" FA signing of the offseason for the Twins. Given his '08 stat line above, that should give pause to most fans. While he was effective in a setup role in many of his other seasons, don't expect miracles. Injuries are the excuses for the lack of success but skepticism should exist that he'll return to form. He's switching leagues and starting to exit his prime years. Best bet is he fills the 6th or 7th inning roles.
Matt Guerrier - 30 yo - 6-9, 5.19, 76.1, 69, 37, 1.58
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-2, 4.70 ERA
- I've always doubted Guerrier's ability and he proved me wrong in '06 and '07. In last year's preview, I ate a hefty serving of crow and was glad to do so. Well, '08 wasn't kind to Guerrier. Did the league figure him out? Arm problems? Fatigue with the workload? All could be factors but what is coming to light is Guerrier will never be the alpha dog in the pen behind a closer. He lacks the arm to be that player. He's blessed with a curve that when clicking can get players out but if he's not feeling that pitch, he's in trouble (which was most of last season). This is a big year for Guerrier. A repeat performance will signal a departure from the Twins and possibly MLB. That's harsh words for someone productive the previous 2 seasons but he doesn't pass the eyeball test and 2 consecutive years of poor play spells doom for Matty.
Craig Breslow - 28 yo - 0-2, 1.91, 47, 39, 19, 1.13
- Predicted '09 stats: 3-1, 3.40 ERA
- Talk about someone failing the eyeball test...Breslow looks like a mathlete, not an athlete. He's small and has possibly the weakest arm on the staff. Despite all of his perceived limitations, Breslow was a steal for the Twins when they claimed him off waivers in July. Just check out his stat line. He kept the ball down and his sweeping slider made some big name left-handed hitters look silly. If Breslow can continue to get lefties out, he'll have a place in the league. Man I wish I were a left-handed pitcher...
Boof Bonser - 27 yo - 3-7, 5.93, 118.1, 97, 36, 1.48
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-8, 5.00 ERA
- I'm going to continue with the eyeball test theme...Bonser passes it. He's big (sometimes too big), strong, and has one of the better arms on the staff. What he lacks is confidence and consistency. When on (which was rare last season), Bonser can strike out the side in a dazzling fashion. When off, he's a power pitcher that leaves the ball up and it gets pounded. His fastball/breaking ball combo rivals any pitcher on the staff other than Nathan and Liriano. He just seems to be a head case on the mound. Because he's out of options, he might be sent packing this spring. If he's heading north with the club, it'll be in the long reliever/spot starter role. A breakout performance could mean a move to the rotation but he's got to figure out how to be consistent first.
Jose Mijares - 24 yo - 0-1, 0.87, 10.1, 5, 0, 0.30 (NB, FM, GCL - 3-2, 2.21, 36.2, 41, 11, 1.20)
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-1, 3.60 ERA
- Injured in a car accident last offseason, Mijares was almost an afterthought in the organization. After a nice return from the injury, he was promoted in September and in his dozen appearances, he looked like the best reliever not named Nathan on the roster. He was exactly what the Twins needed...a reliever that could get the lead to Nathan. A fluke? He's the reliever I'll be watching closely this spring. If he can even partially approach his '08 numbers in '09, the Twins have found something. He was put in some big spots and delivered. A pleasant surprise to say the least. A lot can change in 6 months so there are still many questions to be answered regarding Mijares.
Phil Humber - 26 yo - 0-0, 4.63, 11.2, 6, 5, 1.37 (Rochester - 10-8, 4.56, 136.1, 106, 49, 1.42)
- Humber is out of options so that likely means he either makes the club out of spring training or he's no longer with the Twins. Apart of the Santana trade, this former 1st rounder has the makeup to be a starter but gets hit hard when he's off. He had a Jeckle & Hyde '08. He started off getting nailed but in July, something clicked. In his last 12 starts, he posted a sub 3.00 ERA. All else held equal, it looks like it's either Bonser or Humber for the long reliever/spot starter role. Keep an eye on the battle. The loser will be trade bait in late March and if there are no takers, they might be released if they don't accept an assignment to Rochester.
R.A. Dickey - 34 yo (Seattle) - 5-8, 5.21, 112.1, 58, 51, 1.56
- For whatever reason, the Twins have been after Dickey for the past 2 years. Last offseason, they made an attempt to sign him but he ended up as a rule 5 player for Seattle. By looking at his numbers, it's tough to see the Twins eagerness in signing him. The knuckleballer is a manicure away from clicking like Tim Wakefield but it's such a crapshoot for knuckleballers that he's too hard to predict. Best guess is he accepts an assignment to Rochester and gets called up eventually when an injury hits the staff.
Bobby Korecky - 29 yo - 2-0, 4.58, 17.2, 6, 8, 1.53 (Rochester - 6-5, 2.91, 74.1, 71, 22, 1.18)
- The closer in Rochester last season, Korecky posted decent numbers, even warranting a promotion. He was the throw-in in the Eric Milton trade to Philly years ago and could see some meaningful innings in Minnesota if an injury hits the pen. His cup of coffee last year shouldn't be examined too closely as he pitched in blowouts mostly (expect for his first MLB win when he stole the show in the game by pitching 2 huge innings in a close game). At 29 yo, he's no longer a prospect but he does add depth and I'm betting he'll be called on at some point this year to contribute in some big spots.
Armando Gabino - 25 yo (New Britain) - 6-5, 3.10, 81.1, 61, 31, 1.41
- Claimed off minor league waivers from Cleveland last offseason, Gabino spent last season in New Britain in the primary setup role. At 25 yo, he's nothing more than a lower tier prospect and his ceiling is middle inning reliever. Will probably start the season in Rochester with an outside shot at a September call up.
Jason Jones - 26 yo (NYY AAA and AA) - 13-8, 3.26, 160, 102, 50, 1.26
- Rule 5 pick-up from the Yankees this offseason, which means he has to stay on the active roster (or DL) the entire season or he's offered back to the Yankees. That's a likely outcome as I don't know if the Twins have the luxury of placing a pitcher on the active roster who isn't ready for the bigs like they did with Santana years ago. It's possible he wows the decision-makers takes someone's spot like Bonser but most playoff quality teams can't afford to "waste" an important roster spot for potential. He's had some good numbers as a starter but he's not on my list of players to watch because it's likely he isn't with the organization in April.
Kevin Mulvey - 23 yo - (Rochester) - 7-9, 3.77, 148, 121, 48, 1.35
- Like Humber, Mulvey was apart of last season's Santana trade. This righty has the makeup to be considered the best pitching prospect in the organization in AAA. At first glance, his '08 numbers give some pause to that statement but a closer look tells a different story. In a hitter's league, Mulvey had a 7.4 K/9 along with a .265 BA against. Those are good numbers for the 22 yo. While he won't be confused with Nolan Ryan, he does have a live arm that will only grow with age. If he can cut down on his walks a bit, you could be looking at someone in the rotation to start the '10 season. He doesn't have ace potential but should be considered an equal to Slowey and Baker in terms of the praise lauded by scouts. In an organization suddenly void of big time prospects (most have graduated to the bigs), Mulvey is one of the few deserving national attention. Expect much better numbers in his 2nd season in AAA with a late season promotion likely when rosters expand.
Brian Duesning - 26 yo - (Rochester) 5-11, 4.25, 133.1, 76, 32, 1.31
- Duesning has seemingly hit a wall. The soft tossing lefty had moderate success in his other 3 minor league seasons but he regressed slightly in a full season in AAA. The former Nebraska star barely touches 90 mph but makes up for it with his control and sneaky curveball. While he feasted on straight-out-of-high school players in low A when I saw him last pitch, the experience gap has closed on him as he moved up the ladder. At 26, Duesning is toeing the line of becoming a career minor leaguer. He needs an impressive season. Otherwise he'll be passed over by the starters in Fort Myers and New Britain for a promotion when they're ready.
Anthony Swarzak - 23 yo - (Roch and NB) - 8-8, 4.48, 146.2, 102, 51, 1.49
- Long viewed as one of the most talented pitchers in the organization. Swarzak has had suspension and injury problems that have stunted his growth. Still, he's only 23 and despite his rough '08, he's a top 10 prospect for the Twins. The control is killing him and he lost his killer strikeout ability. He has one more year on his honeymoon with the Twins so I expect a big jump in production. At some point, he's got to prove he can pitch above class A. Otherwise his talent will be lost (and that talent is immense as he has one heck of a slider and a strong arm).
Rob Delaney - 24 yo - (NB and FM) - 3-3, 1.23, 66, 72, 11, 0.83 18 saves
- There is a better closer prospect in the minors in the name of Anthony Slama but Delaney keeps producing, as evident in his numbers. He has a violent throwing motion that takes hitters off of their timing similar to Frankie Rodriguez (not as violent but you get the idea). There are better arms on the farm but how do you argue with the production? Expect time split between NB and Rochester with a possible promotion sometime in '10 if he stays on track.
Mike Gosling - 28 yo - (TOR AAA) - 5-6, 3.67, 68.2, 64, 22, 1.46
- Like the 3 pitchers listed below, I know little about Gosling. From checking his career stats, he has the best chance to pitch in Minnesota this season and even that chance is slim at best.
Sean Henn - 27 yo (San Diego) - 0-0, 7.36, 7.1, 7, 6, 2.18 (3 Minor stops - 1-0, 5.82, 17, 15, 11, 1.82)
- Definition of career minor leaguer. He somehow managed sip some coffee last season with San Diego, which is mindboggling given his career minor league numbers. This is all he deserves for a write-up.
Ben Julianel - 29 yo (New Britain) - 3-2, 2.37, 68.1, 78, 30, 1.35 26 saves
- He's no spring chicken yet he held his own in AA last season. He appeared to block better closer prospects from advancing to AA in the form of Delaney and Slama but the Twins must see something in this 29 yo to invite him to spring training. It would be a story if he ends up in a Twins uniform at any point in his career.
Bob Keppel - 26 yo - (LAD AAA) - 9-11, 5.99, 159.1, 85, 57, 1.66
- 1.66 WHIP in AAA? That's all you need to know.
Hitters in Camp (Age on Opening Day/ABs, BA, HR, RBI, SLG, OBP, SB)
Catchers
Joe Mauer - 25 yo - 536, .328, 9, 85, .451, .413, 1
- Predicted '09 stats: .320, 10, 70
- 2 batting titles in 3 years. Golden Prince of the organization and of Minnesota. Can do no wrong, except those that complain about his lack of power. He may never develop into a 30 HR hitter but Tony Gwynn never did either and he turned out OK. I guess I'd view him in that light and drop the power expectations as his inside-out swing doesn't lend itself for power. Always an injury concern given his position and his height.
Mike Redmond - 38 yo - 129, .287, 0, 12, .333, .321, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .270, 1, 18
- Rah Rah guy. Steady behind the plate. Can hold his own with the bat. Certainly has his flaws but he's only asked to give roughly 150 ABs and start 30 games. Age will catch up to him eventually. Could be last season with the club. Clubhouse favorite.
Wilson Ramos - 21 yo - (Fort Myers) 452, .288, 13, 78, .434, .346, 0
- If Mauer ever switches positions in the next 2 or 3 years or leaves after 2010, this could be the Twins everyday catcher. Started slow last season but he can mash. Considered a top 10 prospect in the organization. I've seen him play twice and he's got a gun for an arm but it's inconsistent. Moves pretty well behind the plate. Probably 2 years away from making the club.
Jose Morales - 26 yo - (Rochester) 197, .315, 4, 15, .426, .348, 0
- Interesting player. Can hit. Can catch. Obviously won't beat out Redmond for backup duties this year but could be his replacement next season. Has Ramos to worry about as he's considered a better prospect than Morales.
Drew Butera - 25 yo - (New Britain) 302, .219, 7, 39, .354, .308, 0
- There really is no reason to comment on Butera other than to say it's odd that he's included on the 40-man roster. No need to protect 5 catchers. There had to be someone better to protect than this dud.
Jeff Christy - 24 yo - (NB and Roch) 164, .213, 0, 9, .274, .321, 0
- Probably 4th on the org depth chart at catcher right now behind the regulars and Morales. Only gets a taste of the bigs if 2 of the 3 are injured at the same time.
Danny Lehmann - 23 yo - (Beloit and FM) 235, .243, 0, 12, .298, .335, 2
- In camp just to be thrown to. Not even on the radar as a top 50 prospect in the organization.
Infielders
Justin Morneau - 27 yo - 623, .300, 23, 129, .499, .374, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .315, 33, 130
- Morneau was the top player in the AL thru August last season. His final month was a disaster and I think the weight of the moment got to him. I think he learned from the experience and will be better for it. Homerun production dropped but the run production did not. Will always be a 120 RBI guy and if he wanted to sacrifice 20 points on his batting average, he could hit 40 HRs. Entering his prime at 27 yo and expect his walks and IBB to dramatically increase the next couple of seasons unless the Twins find a legit threat to protect him.
Alexi Casilla - 24 yo - 385, .281, 7, 50, .374, .333, 7
- Predicted '09 stats: .275, 11, 60, 15 SBs
- Casilla provided a much need spark near the top of the order once he was called up last June. His effort has been questioned at times but he has the skills to be a borderline All-Star 2B in the future. His defense will only improve with experience and he can drive the ball for someone his size. He certainly doesn't lack confidence and if he can get his OBP around .350, he could easily score 100 runs this season with Mauer and Morneau batting right behind him. While he has the wings to fly, it has yet to translate into success on the basepath. If he stays out of Gardy's doghouse, he could be a cornerstone of the franchise well into the next decade.
Nick Punto - 31 yo - 338, .284, 2, 28, .382, .344, 15
- Predicted '09 stats: .265, 2, 35, 20 SBs
- Without question, the most polarizing player for fans on the roster. While his effort is never in question, his ability is often at the center of the debate. Similar to '07, Punto is slated as a regular in the infield. Hopefully the results differ greatly this time around. He's long been considered the weak link in any lineup card baring his name yet the Twins signed him to a 2 year, $8 mil contract this offseason with the expectations that he'll be their starting shortstop. If his '08 numbers are any indicator, the Twins overpaid as his VORP (value over replacement player) is lower than any other starter. One would think the Twins would look for an upgrade and view Punto as a utility infielder like the rest of the league. Punto's saving grace with the bat is his ability to draw walks, a trait that's lacking in other areas in the lineup. His .344 OBP is serviceable but his obvious inability to drive in runs is the killer, especially considering that the 3 players behind him in the lineup might not be the best at taking advantage of his relatively high OBP. With the glove, Punto can make what appears to be spectacular plays but a closer look often reveals that someone greater length could make a similar play without diving. At 5'7", Punto has to use every bit of his quickness to get to balls most other starting shortstops could easily get. In all, the Twins are hoping Punto can just maintain his '08 numbers and not revert to his historically disastrous '07 season.
Brian Buscher - 27 yo - 218, .294, 4, 47, .390, .340, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .280, 10, 55
- Early reports out of Fort Myers state that Buscher spent much of the offseason sculpting his body. He entered a boot camp program to put himself in the best shape of his career. That's a good sign for the Twins as Buscher's slotted to start at least 100 games this season if a late upgrade (Crede) at 3rd is not found. He'll find a spot on the bench against lefties as Harris will get those starts but with fewer south paws in the league means more starts for Buscher. His BA with RISP in '08 was outstanding (.386 BA, which accounts for his high RBI total in few ABs) but expecting that production to continue into '09 is fool's gold. That's why the Twins hope his new powerful body will translate into Buscher driving the ball more. With the glove, Buscher is a liability and unless he becomes a masher at the plate in '09, he will perpetually be someone the Twins will look to replace.
Brendan Harris - 28 yo - 434, .265, 7, 49, .394, .327, 1
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 8, 40
- The Good: Harris can drive the ball, leading the team in doubles/AB and he gives the Twins the ability to platoon at 3B where Harris uses his strength against lefties while Buscher mans the position against righties. The Bad: He really doesn't have a position. He's too slow for SS and is green at the hot corner. He's an average fielder at best. He strikes out at a high rate and despite a nice frame, doesn't hit many homers. On most teams, Harris would be viewed as a backup infielder and a pinch hitter off the bench. On the Twins, he'll get roughly 350 ABs give the current roster makeup. At 28 yo, Harris desperately needs a breakout season to advance his career beyond the bit player label. The motivation exists. Hopefully Harris will make the most of this opportunity.
Matt Tolbert - 26 yo - 113, .283, 0, 6, .389, .322, 7
- Predicted '09 stats: .275, 2, 25, 10 SBs
- Tolbert had an outstanding start to the '08 season in Rochester. The play meant a promotion early in the summer when injuries hit the infield. He showed flashes with the bat and the glove to warrant the promotion. However, the injury bug hit Tolbert as well, finishing his season after 113 ABs. With the starting infield basically set, his best bet to head north in April is as the utility infielder and he might have the inside track at that job. Regardless, he is viewed in the organization as Punto's replacement at SS if he goes on the DL. His long term career path is still very much in question but he gives the '09 Twins some depth in the middle infield.
Matt Macri - 26 yo - 34, .324, 1, 4, .441 (Rochester - 309, .256, 10, 47, .456, .321, 2)
- Remember Ramon Ortiz? He's the reason Macri is with the organization as he was the prospect returned to the Twins in the Ortiz trade to Colorado in '07. He's got a decent bat with some power but strikes out too frequently. He's currently viewed as a third baseman and that's his best bet to get to the bigs again after his cup of coffee last year. He'll battle Hughes and Valencia as the player de jour if either Harris or Buscher hit the DL. Can play spot duty at SS or 2B.
Luke Hughes - 24 yo - (NB and Roch) - 391, .309, 18, 61, .524, .369, 6 - Started out the '08 season tearing up AA. Was the leader in BA for most of the season. His production slid a bit when moved up a class but the Australian native went from an afterthought to a bonafide prospect in the organization. He'll start the year in Rochester but a repeat performance will likely mean a promotion to the bigs. Was '08 a fluke? We'll find out. Decent with the glove, Hughes is a contact hitter that fits will with the organization's philosophy.
Steven Tolleson - 25 yo (New Britain) - 343, .300, 9, 50, .466, .382, 12
- If Casilla bombs sometime in the next season or two, Tolleson could be his replacement. Has a slick glove and a bat to boot. Patient hitter. Might be the top middle infield prospect in the organization.
Trevor Plouffe - 22 yo - (NB and Roch) - 477, .262, 9, 60, .415, .308, 5
- Former 1st round pick has progressed thru the system at an odd pace. His promotions have seemingly been based on potential and not production. He's a SS that might need to move positions as he's still incredibly error prone. He regressed a bit in '08 compared to his relative breakout season in '07. Still young at 22, Plouffe doesn't look like a former 1st rounder, but then again neither did Span until last year. He's a "toolsy" player so the attributes exist almost across the board but he just hasn't put it all together and the lack of production shows. The 2 times I saw him play in Beloit earlier in his career stick out to me because he looks the part. He just doesn't act it.
Deibinson Romero - 22 yo - (Beloit) - 149, .268, 3, 18, .396, .309, 1
- An unknown. Romero missed much of last season due to injury. On the 40 man roster because they want to protect their middle infield depth. Good with the glove. Don't pay too much attention to him this year.
Alejandro Machado - 26 yo - (Rochester) - 195, .338, 2, 31, .472, .376, 12
- If Punto, Casilla, or Tolbert go down, he might be the replacement. Former rule 5 player, he's a wiz with the glove but sketching with the throw. His .338 BA last year isn't the real Machado. He's your typical utility player who has an outside shot at being a regular in the bigs some day. Injury bug has hit him the past 2 seasons.
Brock Peterson - 25 yo - (NB and Roch) - 461, .256, 16, 73, .440, .323, 1
- Check out the org depth chart at 1B. It's Morneau and a bunch of nobodies. Peterson is at the top of the nobodies but that doesn't really matter with Morneau locked up for several more years. Probably best suited to try another franchise. Does nothing spectacular. If Morneau goes on the DL, I doubt Peterson even gets the call as they'll ask Cuddyer or Buscher to man 1B until Morneau returns. Needs to hit much better to even be considered a DH in the bigs. An afterthought.
Danny Valencia - 24 yo - (FM and NB) - 486, .311, 15, 76, .500, .366, 4
- Rivals Ramos as the best prospect almost ready for the bigs. A 17th round pick out of Miami in '06, Valencia has been nothing but a model of consistency with the bat at after minor league stop. While he's not the biggest guy, he has showed enough power in pitcher leagues to be considered a good 3B prospect. Without there being an obvious long term answer at 3B, Valencia has the world in his hands. A nice performance at AA and AAA in '09 could mean Valencia is the starting 3B when the new park opens in '10. Keep an eye on him more than any other prospect in camp as he fits a need in a big way.
Outfielders
Carlos Gomez - 23 yo - 577, .258, 7, 59, .360, .296, 33
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 12, 55, 40 SBs
- Go-Go Gomez is one exciting player. It's hard to take your eyes off of him when he's up to the plate. You never know what's going to happen. It's like watching a dare devil. It'll either be something spectacular or a train wreck. That's something the club knew they were getting when he became the centerpiece of the Santana trade last offseason but the honeymoon is coming to an end shortly. The club will be less patient this season with his bonehead plays. It would be wise for him to swing less, be more patient, and not to bunt as frequently with 2 strikes. In winter league play, he has been showing his willingness to walk more often but let me the first to say that I'll believe once I see it. His move to the bottom of the order in July was a wise move as he didn't get on base nearly enough to justify his leadoff spot. If he can learn to tone down his swing, take a pitch or two, and think while he's in the batter's box, he was the world in front of him. He's a big, strong, fast, and explosive player. Those attributes need to be enhanced by smarter play otherwise he'll be just another player.
Delmon Young - 23 yo - 575, .290, 10, 69, .405, .336, 14
- Predicted '09 stats: .285, 20, 80, 20 SBs
- Can we have a do-over? '08 started as poorly as one could expect for Young. He had exactly 1 homerun in his first 81 games. Not exactly what the Twins expected. He did draw more walks than he did as a Ray but he's still a free swinger and has made comments that his new found "patience" was the reason for his 1st half slump. His attitude has been questioned and his effort was not always 100%. If he irks fans by being an enigma, imagine how the Twins management feel. He's a powerful player that hit singles. When he hits one over the fence, it's a towering shot. Tough to figure out Young. Tons of potential as a hitter and it was on display the final 3 months but no one would be surprised to see his numbers plateau due to his perceived detrimental attitude and effort. Rumors this offseason put him on the trading block so his days may be numbered as a Twin but word to the wise...you don't buy high and sell low and right now his stock is low. The Twins need to show a bit more patience and let him "mature."
Denard Span - 25 yo - 347, .294, 6, 47, .432, .387, 18
- Predicted '09 stats: .290, 10, 60, 25 SBs
- The surprise of '08. Went from a player with the bust tag on his forehead to a player viewed as a major building block for the future. His hot start in Rochester opened some eyes and the injuries to Cuddyer gave him a chance in the bigs after several disappointing seasons in the minors. The former 1st round pick showed an ability to get on base via the walk and made life miserable for the opponent by utilizing his speed once he got on. Not blessed with a strong arm, he made up for it by covering a large part of right field and by making some spectacular plays. Initially viewed as a center fielder, he is a nice security blanket if Gomez goes down as it's important to have a competent player in center. Sophomore slump coming? Not if he remains patient at the plate. He even displayed some surprising power given his perceived ability. It's crucial that he gets on base so Mauer and Morneau have someone to drive in.
Michael Cuddyer - 30 yo - 249, .249, 3, 36, .369, .330, 5
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 7, 45
- '08 was an inopportune time for Cuddyer to get hit with the injury bug. He went from the surest bet in the outfield to possibly the odd man out in the rotation. A possible departure of Young may eventually make him a regular but a mediocre spring training may cement his spot on the bench on opening day. He has 2 years left on a relatively hefty contract (club option in '11) and the Twins have never been a team that's able to stash an expensive piece on the pine. He'll get his starts against lefties but that's not what the Twins envisioned last offseason when they signed him to the deal. He's a favorite of Gardy so he has that in his pocket but if Cuddyer knows what's good for him, he'll step up and produce this season.
Jason Kubel - 26 yo - 463, .272, 20, 78, .471, .335, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .280, 25, 80
- He has a golden opportunity this season to breakout. His '08 season was sufficient but a quick start could finally cement himself as a 550 AB player. All he needs to do is get a couple of more hits off south paws. He hit 50 points lower against lefties in '08 and with his slotted 5th spot in the order likely, he'll be coming up to bat with Mauer and Morneau on base frequently. It's a nice position to be in. He just needs to produce. Otherwise, he'll forever be known as a platoon player.
Jason Pridie - 25 yo - (Rochester) - 554, .267, 12, 60, .426, .303, 25
- Apart of the Young/Garza trade last season was viewed as in contention for the starting centerfield spot. Potential won out in the end as Gomez was given the job but Pridie's future is still up in the air. If one of the 5 outfielders gets traded, he's the favorite as the replacement on the club. Ceiling is a 4th outfielder and he's not very patient at the plate but his speed and glove give him a chance to stick in the bigs for several years.
Luis Matos - 30 yo (Played in Mexico in '08)
- Has been out of MLB for 2 years, playing in Mexico. Made an impact for Baltimore earlier this decade, peaking in '03 with a .303, 13, 45 stat line. If he accepts an assignment to Rochester, he could eventually find himself in the bigs with the Twins at some point this season. Plays LF and bats right. If Pridie regresses, he could be considered for a promotion due to an injury or a trade. Not spectacular but gives the Twins a bit more depth in the system in the outfield.
Dustin Martin - 25 yo - (New Britain) - 510, .290, 10, 72, .447, .355, 22
- Acquired as apart of the Luis Castillo trade with the Mets 2 years ago. Strong kid that might join Pridie in the Rochester outfield. Decent prospect (probably in the 15 to 25 range in the system) with speed and a strong arm. Hasn't found his power stroke yet. I foresee an eventual promotion to the bigs and a strong start in '09 could mean it comes in the early fall.
David Winfree - 23 yo - (New Britain) - 453, .252, 19, 87, .450, .319, 2
- Once played 3rd. Now an outfielder. Free swinging kid with an upper cut stroke that can hit some bombs. If he makes better contact, he can avoid the dreaded Garrett Jones tag. More potential than any other outfielder in AA or AAA for the Twins but taking the next step is important.
Odds and Ends
Projected Everyday Lineup
1. Denard Span - RF
2. Alexi Casilla - 2B
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Justin Morneau - 1B
5. Jason Kubel - DH
6. Delmon Young - LF
7. Brian Buscher - 3B
8. Nick Punto - SS
9. Carlos Gomez - CF
Projected Bench
1. Mike Redmond - Backup Catcher
2. Michael Cuddyer - Backup RF/DH/1B
3. Brendan Harris - Platoon at 3rd with Buscher
4. Matt Tolbert - Backup middle infield
Projected Rotation
1. Scott Baker
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins
Projected Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan - Closer
2. Jesse Crain - #1 righty setup
3. Jose Mijares - #1 lefty setup
4. Craig Breslow - #2 lefty in pen
5. Matt Guerrier - Middle inning relief
6. Luis Ayala - Middle inning relief
7. Boof Bonser - Long Relief/Spot Starter
Best of ...
(Pitchers)
Fastball - Nathan
Change up - Baker
Curveball - Nathan
Slider - Liriano
Control - Slowey
"Out Pitch" - Liriano's Slider
Pickoff move - Breslow
Fielding their position - Slowey
(Hitters)
Power - Morneau
Contact - Mauer
Speed - Gomez
Bunter - Mauer
Outfield Arm - Young (Cuddyer close runner up)
Infield Arm - Plouffe
Outfield Range - Gomez
Infield Range - Machado
Outfield Glove - Cuddyer
Infield Glove - Punto
Burning Questions:
1. What's Minnesota's '09 record? 91-71
2. Where does Minnesota finish in the AL Central? 1st
3. How about the rest of the division? #2 Cleveland, #3 Chicago, #4 KC, #5 Detroit.
4. What about the AL East? #1 New York, #2 Tampa Bay, #3 Boston, #4 Toronto, #5 Baltimore
5. And the AL West? #1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, #2 Oakland, #3 Texas, #4 Seattle
6. Who is the AL's wild card? Tampa Bay (Boston is 1st runner-up)
7. How will the NL shape up?
- East - Philly, New York, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
- Central - Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
- West - Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego
- Wild Card - St. Louis
8. No surprise team like the '08 Rays in '09? Correct. Biggest surprise will be Oakland and they'll still fall short of the playoffs.
9. Name the divisional playoff matchups: Yankees v Twins, Rays v Angels, Phillies v Cardinals, Cubs v Diamondbacks
10. LCS matchups? Yankees v Angels, Phillies v Cubs
11. World Series? Yankees v Phillies
12. World Series Winner? Yankees - I know...really going out on a limb. Just look at their lineup and rotation. Unbelievable.
13. Do you hate the Yankees as much as I do? Probably. They're evil. They're the reason baseball needs a salary cap (and floor by the way)
14. Well, they didn't make the playoffs last year. Maybe their payroll doesn't matter? Look at the previous 17 seasons and the likelihood a team with a payroll in the bottom half of baseball making the playoffs. It's darn near a miracle the Twins are as competitive as they are.
15. Al MVP: Vlad Guerrero
16. NL MVP: Ryan Howard
17. AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
18. NL Cy Young: Dan Haren
19. #1 off-the-field story line other than steroids? Financial difficulties of a half dozen MLB franchises. The economy will hit baseball hard. Drop in ad revenues and decline in attendance will force some teams to trade players for immediate salary relief.
Other Predictions (Twins-related)
1. Team MVP - Morneau - His poor finish to the '08 season will drive him all season long. Expect a monster year and a top 3 finish in the AL MVP race.
2. Team Cy Young - Nathan - Durable, reliable, twitchy...His high save percentage will be the main reason the Twins make the playoffs.
3. Breakout player - Slowey - His stat predictors say his ERA will decrease and his win total increase. He's smart enough that he'll figure out this pitching thing in '09. Expect a stat line around 16-8 with a 3.40 ERA or better
4. Breakdown player - Mauer - He's due for another injury. Kidney problems aside, he's not the most durable player. I expect at least 1 stay on the DL. He'll still get over 400 ABs but expect Redmond to start at least 50 games at catcher this year as I expect Mauer to see more time at DH
5. Having 5 outfielders for 4 positions(counting DH) isn't a bad thing. One or more will see some time on the DL. Having that depth will be needed. Unless the Twins are out of contention in July, I don't expect any of the 5 to be traded (most notably Cuddyer and Young)
6. Punto will get close to 500 ABs
7. Buscher and Harris will be an adequate platoon at 3rd. Buscher can hit righties. Harris can hit lefties. Their defense is the biggest problem. Of course Crede would be an upgrade if he signs and stays healthy.
8. The major holes will be at SS, middle relief, and defense on the left side of the infield. Harris, Buscher, and Punto all lack range and make mental mistakes. Punto gets the reputation as a "gamer" but he had too many mental lapses last season and he can cover only so much ground.
9. The Twins will make the playoffs if all of the following are true...
- Baker, Liriano, and Slowey make at least 28 starts each
- Morneau, Mauer, and Nathan are on the active roster for the vast majority of the season
- Span, Casilla, and Buscher play close to the level of the '08 stats
- Either Young or Gomez have a mini-breakout season (increase in their stats across the board)
- The Twins find (early on) 2 capable middle relievers.
10. The Twins will miss the playoffs (other than major injuries) if the young players either regress or fail to hit in the clutch. Simple as that.
Schedule Analysis:
1. Look for a quick start: 23 of the first 35 are at home.
2. Watch for a June Swoon instead of an uplift like last season: Starting June 5th, the Twins play 19 of 25 on the road.
3. This time around, the Twins will finish strong...The Twins have only 15 games against last year's playoff teams after the all-star break compared to 35 before the break.
4. The Twins play only 14 games on the West Coast in '09. History tells me that's a good thing as west coast swings have never been very kind to the Twins.
5. Balanced schedule? Not in baseball. The Twins might actually get a break. While each team in the division plays other teams 18 times, games outside the division are not equal. I'd put NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, CHC, STL, LAD, and ARI in a higher category Given that, here's the total games against those teams for everyone in the division:
Twins - 35
Indians - 37
White Sox - 42
Kansas City - 43
Detroit - 35
- It appears like the schedule gives the Twins somewhat of a break. The only negative I can see is that the Twins get Baltimore only 5 times. They will rival Seattle for the league's worst team.
- Projected opposing starting pitchers for the first 10 games:
Apr 6 - Felix Hernandez
Apr 7 - Erik Bedard
Apr 8 - Brandon Morrow
Apr 9 - Jarred Washburn or Carlos Silva
Apr 10 - Bartolo Colon
Apr 11 - Chris Richard
Apr 12 - Mark Buehrle
Apr 13 - David Purcy
Apr 14 - Dustin McGowen
Apr 15 - Chris Jannsen
Apr 16 - Roy Halladay
Summation:
The 2009 season will have a different feel than last year. Expectations are higher and there are really no new faces (maybe that's a good thing, cough, Mike Lamb, cough). This is still a young team with only a small handful of players older than 30 expected to make the club. Growth potential exists as does the dreaded sophomore slump for quite a few players entering their second full season in the bigs. What we should expect is slightly improved play from the starting pitchers and more consistent play from the young position players. What we shouldn't expect is the same level of BA with runners in scoring position. Hopefully the former compensates for the latter. As always, it should be an entertaining season (how can it not be with Gomez as a regular?) with streaks both ways. The AL Central is perceived to be a bit down compared to this time last year so the opportunity may exist for a playoff spot without needing 95 wins. In the last season in the bland Metrodome, sparks may ignite to bring the place down.
Baseball is unlike any other sport in that it occupies a stretch of a calendar without much competition and it delivers with games of your favorite team almost every day. It promises little else (unless you're the '09 Yankees).
2008 Summary:
The '08 version of the Twins was the opposite of a traditional Hollywood movie. Most movies start with a positive situation with high expectations and likeable new characters. Then an antagonist is introduced with a negative plot twist. It ends with a resurrection of the good guy with an uplifting ending. See the opposite parallels? Most prognosticators (me included) wrote off the Twins before the calendar switched to April. The Twins had just lost the most dominating pitcher in baseball (Santana) and their crowd favorite (Hunter) The numerous new faces struggled from the beginning (outside of Livan Hernandez's first 5 starts) and mostly were responsible for the sub .500 record entering Father's Day. Instead of the team withering away with the introduction of lackluster prospects and major question marks entering the scene in mid-summer to replace the disappointing veterans, a rebirth took place. Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, and Francisco Liriano all entered (or re-entered in Liriano's case) the scene and made a big splash. The streak lasted thru August and eventually got the team into first place for almost 2 months. The team was flying high and playing with an energy dearly missing the previous season. The regulars performed. Mauer once again led the AL in batting. Morneau was an MVP runner up. Nathan was once again a stud closer. The mixture of the studs with the high flying youngsters created a dynamic that led to a playoff chase. Like a thud, the positive streak ended in September. Morneau stopped producing. The young pitching staff was wearing down. The magic started to disappear. Thankfully for the Twins, the opponent in the race for the AL Central crown was also faltering. The White Sox seemed to lose every time the Twins lost, keeping the race neck and neck...to the point where 162 games weren't enough. With a flip of a coin, the White Sox gained home field advantage for that decisive game but that didn't deter Blackburn from pitching the best game of his life, with the exception of one pitch. That pitch resulted in a souvenir for a fan and the only run in the 1-0 loss for the Twins. Like the last 4 weeks for the season, the Twins hit the skids because their bats went silent. In all, the season was a success. It brought a summer full of excitement and introduced us to a handful of players for the first time that will determine future success. While it ended on a sour note, it gave hope to all Twins fans that the future may be brighter than first thought.
Camp Roster (players with projected stats are likely to make the team out if spring training)
Pitchers (Age on Opening Day/W-L, ERA, IP, K's, BB, WHIP)
Scott Baker - 27 yo - 11-4, 3.45, 172.1, 141, 42, 1.18
- Predicted '09 stats: 13-9, 3.60 ERA
- Injuries kept Baker's '08 season from being great. When he was healthy, he was one of the reasons the Twins had a 163rd game. At 27 yo, he's just entering his prime and might be tagged with the #1 starter description. He can strike guys out and when he keeps the ball down, he can be as effective as any starter in the league. While he's not Santana, he has a chance to have a better career than Radke.
Francisco Liriano - 25 yo - 6-4, 3.91, 76, 67, 32, 1.39
- Predicted '09 stats: 11-7, 3.30 ERA
- Let's just forget Liriano's April in '08. That's not him. The Twins forced him along and while it was wishful thinking he could come back and make an immediate positive impact, the reality was that he needed some time in AAA to refine his pitches and build up his arm strength. When he returned in August, he was much closer to the Liriano that wowed the world in '06. It goes without saying that Liriano has Cy Young potential and fans should be encouraged with his '08 finish. However, Liriano's best pitch is his slider and that might have been responsible for his elbow injury in the first place. Rick Anderson his tweaked with his throwing motion but the possibility exists that Liriano peaked in '06 and that he'll never be the lights-out pitcher everyone thought he would be. Regardless, he's still viewed as a #1 or #2 pitcher and if he can stay healthy, he'll play this game at a high level for a long time. Work ethic has been questioned but to his credit, he did prove himself in the minors in '08 and it warranted a promotion in August.
Kevin Slowey - 24 yo - 12-11, 3.99, 160.1, 123, 24, 1.15
- Predicted '09 stats: 16-8, 3.40 ERA
- Want to see the antithesis of Carlos Gomez? It's Slowey. It wouldn't shock me if they were polar opposites in everything they do in life. That might be a good thing for Slowey on the mound where composure and precision are qualities. While he's not overpowering, he can wear a hitter out by hitting all of his spots with rare consistency. His 1.15 WHIP is a great sign for someone his age and it may not be long until Slowey is considered one of the top pitchers in the league. His 3.99 ERA is high for the rest of his indicators so expect it to drop in '09. He's my pick for breakout player on the staff and don't be surprised if his K/inning increases. He'll never lead the league in K's but if he can keep the ball in the park on a consistent basis, he is a candidate to lead the league in other categories.
Nick Blackburn - 27 yo - 11-11, 4.05, 193.1, 96, 39, 1.36
- Predicted '09 stats: 8-12, 4.60 ERA
- Feast or Famine. Blackburn's '08 season had some fantastic starts and some big time blunders. He seems to wear down in August and September, which might be explained away as he pitched more innings than he had ever pitched. He did pitch the play-in game and pitched extremely well outside of the solo homer in the 1-0 loss so he might have the intestinal fortitude to be a big game pitcher. Definitely not a strikeout pitcher, Blackburn is most effective when he changes speeds and works the corners. Like most other pitchers coming thru the organization, he's a control pitcher and he showed as much in '08. He will never be a front line starter but could find a nitch in the 4th slot for a long career in baseball.
Glen Perkins - 26 yo, 12-4, 4.41, 151, 74, 39, 1.47
- Predicted '09 stats: 9-8, 4.20 ERA
- His '08 record is an aberration given his other numbers. He has had some control problems and gets hit hard frequently. What's puzzling about Perkins is he was a strikeout pitcher in the minors. That hasn't translated in the bigs, especially last year when he struck out only 74 in 151 innings. It's nice to have 2 lefties in the rotation but if Perkins regresses in '09, his career path might move to the pen. The former Gopher and 1st rounder has learned to control his emotions. Now he has to find that "out" pitch that made him a top prospect, otherwise he's destined to be moved out of the rotation and into long relief.
Joe Nathan - 34 yo - 1-2, 1.33, 67.2, 74, 18, 0.90, 39 saves
- Predicted '09 stats: 2-2, 1.60 ERA, 42 saves
- Many superlatives can be assigned to Nathan. I won't bother listing them all. What needs to be said is Nathan is the difference between the Twins being the Reds and the Twins being in their current state. Many questioned the logic in signing a top flight closer to a long term deal for a team predicted to be .500 at best. The Twins showed the move was a wise one. The only concern is he's 34 yo and the zip on his fastball might start declining soon.
Jesse Crain - 27 yo - 5-4, 3.59, 62.2, 50, 24, 1.37
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-4, 3.90 ERA
- Crain always seems to be hurt. That's not a good label to have as a pitcher. When completely healthy, Crain has a fastball that can miss bats. The Twins need a healthy Crain in '09 because he's the best candidate to be the primary setup man. It's painfully obvious the Twins need to get the lead to Nathan and it was a problem in '08. Crain can really help his perception in '09 by filling that role competently.
Luis Ayala - (Wash and NYM) - 2-10, 5.71, 75.2, 50, 24, 1.45
- Predicted '09 stats: 3-5, 4.50 ERA
- As of right now, Ayala is the "biggest" FA signing of the offseason for the Twins. Given his '08 stat line above, that should give pause to most fans. While he was effective in a setup role in many of his other seasons, don't expect miracles. Injuries are the excuses for the lack of success but skepticism should exist that he'll return to form. He's switching leagues and starting to exit his prime years. Best bet is he fills the 6th or 7th inning roles.
Matt Guerrier - 30 yo - 6-9, 5.19, 76.1, 69, 37, 1.58
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-2, 4.70 ERA
- I've always doubted Guerrier's ability and he proved me wrong in '06 and '07. In last year's preview, I ate a hefty serving of crow and was glad to do so. Well, '08 wasn't kind to Guerrier. Did the league figure him out? Arm problems? Fatigue with the workload? All could be factors but what is coming to light is Guerrier will never be the alpha dog in the pen behind a closer. He lacks the arm to be that player. He's blessed with a curve that when clicking can get players out but if he's not feeling that pitch, he's in trouble (which was most of last season). This is a big year for Guerrier. A repeat performance will signal a departure from the Twins and possibly MLB. That's harsh words for someone productive the previous 2 seasons but he doesn't pass the eyeball test and 2 consecutive years of poor play spells doom for Matty.
Craig Breslow - 28 yo - 0-2, 1.91, 47, 39, 19, 1.13
- Predicted '09 stats: 3-1, 3.40 ERA
- Talk about someone failing the eyeball test...Breslow looks like a mathlete, not an athlete. He's small and has possibly the weakest arm on the staff. Despite all of his perceived limitations, Breslow was a steal for the Twins when they claimed him off waivers in July. Just check out his stat line. He kept the ball down and his sweeping slider made some big name left-handed hitters look silly. If Breslow can continue to get lefties out, he'll have a place in the league. Man I wish I were a left-handed pitcher...
Boof Bonser - 27 yo - 3-7, 5.93, 118.1, 97, 36, 1.48
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-8, 5.00 ERA
- I'm going to continue with the eyeball test theme...Bonser passes it. He's big (sometimes too big), strong, and has one of the better arms on the staff. What he lacks is confidence and consistency. When on (which was rare last season), Bonser can strike out the side in a dazzling fashion. When off, he's a power pitcher that leaves the ball up and it gets pounded. His fastball/breaking ball combo rivals any pitcher on the staff other than Nathan and Liriano. He just seems to be a head case on the mound. Because he's out of options, he might be sent packing this spring. If he's heading north with the club, it'll be in the long reliever/spot starter role. A breakout performance could mean a move to the rotation but he's got to figure out how to be consistent first.
Jose Mijares - 24 yo - 0-1, 0.87, 10.1, 5, 0, 0.30 (NB, FM, GCL - 3-2, 2.21, 36.2, 41, 11, 1.20)
- Predicted '09 stats: 4-1, 3.60 ERA
- Injured in a car accident last offseason, Mijares was almost an afterthought in the organization. After a nice return from the injury, he was promoted in September and in his dozen appearances, he looked like the best reliever not named Nathan on the roster. He was exactly what the Twins needed...a reliever that could get the lead to Nathan. A fluke? He's the reliever I'll be watching closely this spring. If he can even partially approach his '08 numbers in '09, the Twins have found something. He was put in some big spots and delivered. A pleasant surprise to say the least. A lot can change in 6 months so there are still many questions to be answered regarding Mijares.
Phil Humber - 26 yo - 0-0, 4.63, 11.2, 6, 5, 1.37 (Rochester - 10-8, 4.56, 136.1, 106, 49, 1.42)
- Humber is out of options so that likely means he either makes the club out of spring training or he's no longer with the Twins. Apart of the Santana trade, this former 1st rounder has the makeup to be a starter but gets hit hard when he's off. He had a Jeckle & Hyde '08. He started off getting nailed but in July, something clicked. In his last 12 starts, he posted a sub 3.00 ERA. All else held equal, it looks like it's either Bonser or Humber for the long reliever/spot starter role. Keep an eye on the battle. The loser will be trade bait in late March and if there are no takers, they might be released if they don't accept an assignment to Rochester.
R.A. Dickey - 34 yo (Seattle) - 5-8, 5.21, 112.1, 58, 51, 1.56
- For whatever reason, the Twins have been after Dickey for the past 2 years. Last offseason, they made an attempt to sign him but he ended up as a rule 5 player for Seattle. By looking at his numbers, it's tough to see the Twins eagerness in signing him. The knuckleballer is a manicure away from clicking like Tim Wakefield but it's such a crapshoot for knuckleballers that he's too hard to predict. Best guess is he accepts an assignment to Rochester and gets called up eventually when an injury hits the staff.
Bobby Korecky - 29 yo - 2-0, 4.58, 17.2, 6, 8, 1.53 (Rochester - 6-5, 2.91, 74.1, 71, 22, 1.18)
- The closer in Rochester last season, Korecky posted decent numbers, even warranting a promotion. He was the throw-in in the Eric Milton trade to Philly years ago and could see some meaningful innings in Minnesota if an injury hits the pen. His cup of coffee last year shouldn't be examined too closely as he pitched in blowouts mostly (expect for his first MLB win when he stole the show in the game by pitching 2 huge innings in a close game). At 29 yo, he's no longer a prospect but he does add depth and I'm betting he'll be called on at some point this year to contribute in some big spots.
Armando Gabino - 25 yo (New Britain) - 6-5, 3.10, 81.1, 61, 31, 1.41
- Claimed off minor league waivers from Cleveland last offseason, Gabino spent last season in New Britain in the primary setup role. At 25 yo, he's nothing more than a lower tier prospect and his ceiling is middle inning reliever. Will probably start the season in Rochester with an outside shot at a September call up.
Jason Jones - 26 yo (NYY AAA and AA) - 13-8, 3.26, 160, 102, 50, 1.26
- Rule 5 pick-up from the Yankees this offseason, which means he has to stay on the active roster (or DL) the entire season or he's offered back to the Yankees. That's a likely outcome as I don't know if the Twins have the luxury of placing a pitcher on the active roster who isn't ready for the bigs like they did with Santana years ago. It's possible he wows the decision-makers takes someone's spot like Bonser but most playoff quality teams can't afford to "waste" an important roster spot for potential. He's had some good numbers as a starter but he's not on my list of players to watch because it's likely he isn't with the organization in April.
Kevin Mulvey - 23 yo - (Rochester) - 7-9, 3.77, 148, 121, 48, 1.35
- Like Humber, Mulvey was apart of last season's Santana trade. This righty has the makeup to be considered the best pitching prospect in the organization in AAA. At first glance, his '08 numbers give some pause to that statement but a closer look tells a different story. In a hitter's league, Mulvey had a 7.4 K/9 along with a .265 BA against. Those are good numbers for the 22 yo. While he won't be confused with Nolan Ryan, he does have a live arm that will only grow with age. If he can cut down on his walks a bit, you could be looking at someone in the rotation to start the '10 season. He doesn't have ace potential but should be considered an equal to Slowey and Baker in terms of the praise lauded by scouts. In an organization suddenly void of big time prospects (most have graduated to the bigs), Mulvey is one of the few deserving national attention. Expect much better numbers in his 2nd season in AAA with a late season promotion likely when rosters expand.
Brian Duesning - 26 yo - (Rochester) 5-11, 4.25, 133.1, 76, 32, 1.31
- Duesning has seemingly hit a wall. The soft tossing lefty had moderate success in his other 3 minor league seasons but he regressed slightly in a full season in AAA. The former Nebraska star barely touches 90 mph but makes up for it with his control and sneaky curveball. While he feasted on straight-out-of-high school players in low A when I saw him last pitch, the experience gap has closed on him as he moved up the ladder. At 26, Duesning is toeing the line of becoming a career minor leaguer. He needs an impressive season. Otherwise he'll be passed over by the starters in Fort Myers and New Britain for a promotion when they're ready.
Anthony Swarzak - 23 yo - (Roch and NB) - 8-8, 4.48, 146.2, 102, 51, 1.49
- Long viewed as one of the most talented pitchers in the organization. Swarzak has had suspension and injury problems that have stunted his growth. Still, he's only 23 and despite his rough '08, he's a top 10 prospect for the Twins. The control is killing him and he lost his killer strikeout ability. He has one more year on his honeymoon with the Twins so I expect a big jump in production. At some point, he's got to prove he can pitch above class A. Otherwise his talent will be lost (and that talent is immense as he has one heck of a slider and a strong arm).
Rob Delaney - 24 yo - (NB and FM) - 3-3, 1.23, 66, 72, 11, 0.83 18 saves
- There is a better closer prospect in the minors in the name of Anthony Slama but Delaney keeps producing, as evident in his numbers. He has a violent throwing motion that takes hitters off of their timing similar to Frankie Rodriguez (not as violent but you get the idea). There are better arms on the farm but how do you argue with the production? Expect time split between NB and Rochester with a possible promotion sometime in '10 if he stays on track.
Mike Gosling - 28 yo - (TOR AAA) - 5-6, 3.67, 68.2, 64, 22, 1.46
- Like the 3 pitchers listed below, I know little about Gosling. From checking his career stats, he has the best chance to pitch in Minnesota this season and even that chance is slim at best.
Sean Henn - 27 yo (San Diego) - 0-0, 7.36, 7.1, 7, 6, 2.18 (3 Minor stops - 1-0, 5.82, 17, 15, 11, 1.82)
- Definition of career minor leaguer. He somehow managed sip some coffee last season with San Diego, which is mindboggling given his career minor league numbers. This is all he deserves for a write-up.
Ben Julianel - 29 yo (New Britain) - 3-2, 2.37, 68.1, 78, 30, 1.35 26 saves
- He's no spring chicken yet he held his own in AA last season. He appeared to block better closer prospects from advancing to AA in the form of Delaney and Slama but the Twins must see something in this 29 yo to invite him to spring training. It would be a story if he ends up in a Twins uniform at any point in his career.
Bob Keppel - 26 yo - (LAD AAA) - 9-11, 5.99, 159.1, 85, 57, 1.66
- 1.66 WHIP in AAA? That's all you need to know.
Hitters in Camp (Age on Opening Day/ABs, BA, HR, RBI, SLG, OBP, SB)
Catchers
Joe Mauer - 25 yo - 536, .328, 9, 85, .451, .413, 1
- Predicted '09 stats: .320, 10, 70
- 2 batting titles in 3 years. Golden Prince of the organization and of Minnesota. Can do no wrong, except those that complain about his lack of power. He may never develop into a 30 HR hitter but Tony Gwynn never did either and he turned out OK. I guess I'd view him in that light and drop the power expectations as his inside-out swing doesn't lend itself for power. Always an injury concern given his position and his height.
Mike Redmond - 38 yo - 129, .287, 0, 12, .333, .321, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .270, 1, 18
- Rah Rah guy. Steady behind the plate. Can hold his own with the bat. Certainly has his flaws but he's only asked to give roughly 150 ABs and start 30 games. Age will catch up to him eventually. Could be last season with the club. Clubhouse favorite.
Wilson Ramos - 21 yo - (Fort Myers) 452, .288, 13, 78, .434, .346, 0
- If Mauer ever switches positions in the next 2 or 3 years or leaves after 2010, this could be the Twins everyday catcher. Started slow last season but he can mash. Considered a top 10 prospect in the organization. I've seen him play twice and he's got a gun for an arm but it's inconsistent. Moves pretty well behind the plate. Probably 2 years away from making the club.
Jose Morales - 26 yo - (Rochester) 197, .315, 4, 15, .426, .348, 0
- Interesting player. Can hit. Can catch. Obviously won't beat out Redmond for backup duties this year but could be his replacement next season. Has Ramos to worry about as he's considered a better prospect than Morales.
Drew Butera - 25 yo - (New Britain) 302, .219, 7, 39, .354, .308, 0
- There really is no reason to comment on Butera other than to say it's odd that he's included on the 40-man roster. No need to protect 5 catchers. There had to be someone better to protect than this dud.
Jeff Christy - 24 yo - (NB and Roch) 164, .213, 0, 9, .274, .321, 0
- Probably 4th on the org depth chart at catcher right now behind the regulars and Morales. Only gets a taste of the bigs if 2 of the 3 are injured at the same time.
Danny Lehmann - 23 yo - (Beloit and FM) 235, .243, 0, 12, .298, .335, 2
- In camp just to be thrown to. Not even on the radar as a top 50 prospect in the organization.
Infielders
Justin Morneau - 27 yo - 623, .300, 23, 129, .499, .374, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .315, 33, 130
- Morneau was the top player in the AL thru August last season. His final month was a disaster and I think the weight of the moment got to him. I think he learned from the experience and will be better for it. Homerun production dropped but the run production did not. Will always be a 120 RBI guy and if he wanted to sacrifice 20 points on his batting average, he could hit 40 HRs. Entering his prime at 27 yo and expect his walks and IBB to dramatically increase the next couple of seasons unless the Twins find a legit threat to protect him.
Alexi Casilla - 24 yo - 385, .281, 7, 50, .374, .333, 7
- Predicted '09 stats: .275, 11, 60, 15 SBs
- Casilla provided a much need spark near the top of the order once he was called up last June. His effort has been questioned at times but he has the skills to be a borderline All-Star 2B in the future. His defense will only improve with experience and he can drive the ball for someone his size. He certainly doesn't lack confidence and if he can get his OBP around .350, he could easily score 100 runs this season with Mauer and Morneau batting right behind him. While he has the wings to fly, it has yet to translate into success on the basepath. If he stays out of Gardy's doghouse, he could be a cornerstone of the franchise well into the next decade.
Nick Punto - 31 yo - 338, .284, 2, 28, .382, .344, 15
- Predicted '09 stats: .265, 2, 35, 20 SBs
- Without question, the most polarizing player for fans on the roster. While his effort is never in question, his ability is often at the center of the debate. Similar to '07, Punto is slated as a regular in the infield. Hopefully the results differ greatly this time around. He's long been considered the weak link in any lineup card baring his name yet the Twins signed him to a 2 year, $8 mil contract this offseason with the expectations that he'll be their starting shortstop. If his '08 numbers are any indicator, the Twins overpaid as his VORP (value over replacement player) is lower than any other starter. One would think the Twins would look for an upgrade and view Punto as a utility infielder like the rest of the league. Punto's saving grace with the bat is his ability to draw walks, a trait that's lacking in other areas in the lineup. His .344 OBP is serviceable but his obvious inability to drive in runs is the killer, especially considering that the 3 players behind him in the lineup might not be the best at taking advantage of his relatively high OBP. With the glove, Punto can make what appears to be spectacular plays but a closer look often reveals that someone greater length could make a similar play without diving. At 5'7", Punto has to use every bit of his quickness to get to balls most other starting shortstops could easily get. In all, the Twins are hoping Punto can just maintain his '08 numbers and not revert to his historically disastrous '07 season.
Brian Buscher - 27 yo - 218, .294, 4, 47, .390, .340, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .280, 10, 55
- Early reports out of Fort Myers state that Buscher spent much of the offseason sculpting his body. He entered a boot camp program to put himself in the best shape of his career. That's a good sign for the Twins as Buscher's slotted to start at least 100 games this season if a late upgrade (Crede) at 3rd is not found. He'll find a spot on the bench against lefties as Harris will get those starts but with fewer south paws in the league means more starts for Buscher. His BA with RISP in '08 was outstanding (.386 BA, which accounts for his high RBI total in few ABs) but expecting that production to continue into '09 is fool's gold. That's why the Twins hope his new powerful body will translate into Buscher driving the ball more. With the glove, Buscher is a liability and unless he becomes a masher at the plate in '09, he will perpetually be someone the Twins will look to replace.
Brendan Harris - 28 yo - 434, .265, 7, 49, .394, .327, 1
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 8, 40
- The Good: Harris can drive the ball, leading the team in doubles/AB and he gives the Twins the ability to platoon at 3B where Harris uses his strength against lefties while Buscher mans the position against righties. The Bad: He really doesn't have a position. He's too slow for SS and is green at the hot corner. He's an average fielder at best. He strikes out at a high rate and despite a nice frame, doesn't hit many homers. On most teams, Harris would be viewed as a backup infielder and a pinch hitter off the bench. On the Twins, he'll get roughly 350 ABs give the current roster makeup. At 28 yo, Harris desperately needs a breakout season to advance his career beyond the bit player label. The motivation exists. Hopefully Harris will make the most of this opportunity.
Matt Tolbert - 26 yo - 113, .283, 0, 6, .389, .322, 7
- Predicted '09 stats: .275, 2, 25, 10 SBs
- Tolbert had an outstanding start to the '08 season in Rochester. The play meant a promotion early in the summer when injuries hit the infield. He showed flashes with the bat and the glove to warrant the promotion. However, the injury bug hit Tolbert as well, finishing his season after 113 ABs. With the starting infield basically set, his best bet to head north in April is as the utility infielder and he might have the inside track at that job. Regardless, he is viewed in the organization as Punto's replacement at SS if he goes on the DL. His long term career path is still very much in question but he gives the '09 Twins some depth in the middle infield.
Matt Macri - 26 yo - 34, .324, 1, 4, .441 (Rochester - 309, .256, 10, 47, .456, .321, 2)
- Remember Ramon Ortiz? He's the reason Macri is with the organization as he was the prospect returned to the Twins in the Ortiz trade to Colorado in '07. He's got a decent bat with some power but strikes out too frequently. He's currently viewed as a third baseman and that's his best bet to get to the bigs again after his cup of coffee last year. He'll battle Hughes and Valencia as the player de jour if either Harris or Buscher hit the DL. Can play spot duty at SS or 2B.
Luke Hughes - 24 yo - (NB and Roch) - 391, .309, 18, 61, .524, .369, 6 - Started out the '08 season tearing up AA. Was the leader in BA for most of the season. His production slid a bit when moved up a class but the Australian native went from an afterthought to a bonafide prospect in the organization. He'll start the year in Rochester but a repeat performance will likely mean a promotion to the bigs. Was '08 a fluke? We'll find out. Decent with the glove, Hughes is a contact hitter that fits will with the organization's philosophy.
Steven Tolleson - 25 yo (New Britain) - 343, .300, 9, 50, .466, .382, 12
- If Casilla bombs sometime in the next season or two, Tolleson could be his replacement. Has a slick glove and a bat to boot. Patient hitter. Might be the top middle infield prospect in the organization.
Trevor Plouffe - 22 yo - (NB and Roch) - 477, .262, 9, 60, .415, .308, 5
- Former 1st round pick has progressed thru the system at an odd pace. His promotions have seemingly been based on potential and not production. He's a SS that might need to move positions as he's still incredibly error prone. He regressed a bit in '08 compared to his relative breakout season in '07. Still young at 22, Plouffe doesn't look like a former 1st rounder, but then again neither did Span until last year. He's a "toolsy" player so the attributes exist almost across the board but he just hasn't put it all together and the lack of production shows. The 2 times I saw him play in Beloit earlier in his career stick out to me because he looks the part. He just doesn't act it.
Deibinson Romero - 22 yo - (Beloit) - 149, .268, 3, 18, .396, .309, 1
- An unknown. Romero missed much of last season due to injury. On the 40 man roster because they want to protect their middle infield depth. Good with the glove. Don't pay too much attention to him this year.
Alejandro Machado - 26 yo - (Rochester) - 195, .338, 2, 31, .472, .376, 12
- If Punto, Casilla, or Tolbert go down, he might be the replacement. Former rule 5 player, he's a wiz with the glove but sketching with the throw. His .338 BA last year isn't the real Machado. He's your typical utility player who has an outside shot at being a regular in the bigs some day. Injury bug has hit him the past 2 seasons.
Brock Peterson - 25 yo - (NB and Roch) - 461, .256, 16, 73, .440, .323, 1
- Check out the org depth chart at 1B. It's Morneau and a bunch of nobodies. Peterson is at the top of the nobodies but that doesn't really matter with Morneau locked up for several more years. Probably best suited to try another franchise. Does nothing spectacular. If Morneau goes on the DL, I doubt Peterson even gets the call as they'll ask Cuddyer or Buscher to man 1B until Morneau returns. Needs to hit much better to even be considered a DH in the bigs. An afterthought.
Danny Valencia - 24 yo - (FM and NB) - 486, .311, 15, 76, .500, .366, 4
- Rivals Ramos as the best prospect almost ready for the bigs. A 17th round pick out of Miami in '06, Valencia has been nothing but a model of consistency with the bat at after minor league stop. While he's not the biggest guy, he has showed enough power in pitcher leagues to be considered a good 3B prospect. Without there being an obvious long term answer at 3B, Valencia has the world in his hands. A nice performance at AA and AAA in '09 could mean Valencia is the starting 3B when the new park opens in '10. Keep an eye on him more than any other prospect in camp as he fits a need in a big way.
Outfielders
Carlos Gomez - 23 yo - 577, .258, 7, 59, .360, .296, 33
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 12, 55, 40 SBs
- Go-Go Gomez is one exciting player. It's hard to take your eyes off of him when he's up to the plate. You never know what's going to happen. It's like watching a dare devil. It'll either be something spectacular or a train wreck. That's something the club knew they were getting when he became the centerpiece of the Santana trade last offseason but the honeymoon is coming to an end shortly. The club will be less patient this season with his bonehead plays. It would be wise for him to swing less, be more patient, and not to bunt as frequently with 2 strikes. In winter league play, he has been showing his willingness to walk more often but let me the first to say that I'll believe once I see it. His move to the bottom of the order in July was a wise move as he didn't get on base nearly enough to justify his leadoff spot. If he can learn to tone down his swing, take a pitch or two, and think while he's in the batter's box, he was the world in front of him. He's a big, strong, fast, and explosive player. Those attributes need to be enhanced by smarter play otherwise he'll be just another player.
Delmon Young - 23 yo - 575, .290, 10, 69, .405, .336, 14
- Predicted '09 stats: .285, 20, 80, 20 SBs
- Can we have a do-over? '08 started as poorly as one could expect for Young. He had exactly 1 homerun in his first 81 games. Not exactly what the Twins expected. He did draw more walks than he did as a Ray but he's still a free swinger and has made comments that his new found "patience" was the reason for his 1st half slump. His attitude has been questioned and his effort was not always 100%. If he irks fans by being an enigma, imagine how the Twins management feel. He's a powerful player that hit singles. When he hits one over the fence, it's a towering shot. Tough to figure out Young. Tons of potential as a hitter and it was on display the final 3 months but no one would be surprised to see his numbers plateau due to his perceived detrimental attitude and effort. Rumors this offseason put him on the trading block so his days may be numbered as a Twin but word to the wise...you don't buy high and sell low and right now his stock is low. The Twins need to show a bit more patience and let him "mature."
Denard Span - 25 yo - 347, .294, 6, 47, .432, .387, 18
- Predicted '09 stats: .290, 10, 60, 25 SBs
- The surprise of '08. Went from a player with the bust tag on his forehead to a player viewed as a major building block for the future. His hot start in Rochester opened some eyes and the injuries to Cuddyer gave him a chance in the bigs after several disappointing seasons in the minors. The former 1st round pick showed an ability to get on base via the walk and made life miserable for the opponent by utilizing his speed once he got on. Not blessed with a strong arm, he made up for it by covering a large part of right field and by making some spectacular plays. Initially viewed as a center fielder, he is a nice security blanket if Gomez goes down as it's important to have a competent player in center. Sophomore slump coming? Not if he remains patient at the plate. He even displayed some surprising power given his perceived ability. It's crucial that he gets on base so Mauer and Morneau have someone to drive in.
Michael Cuddyer - 30 yo - 249, .249, 3, 36, .369, .330, 5
- Predicted '09 stats: .260, 7, 45
- '08 was an inopportune time for Cuddyer to get hit with the injury bug. He went from the surest bet in the outfield to possibly the odd man out in the rotation. A possible departure of Young may eventually make him a regular but a mediocre spring training may cement his spot on the bench on opening day. He has 2 years left on a relatively hefty contract (club option in '11) and the Twins have never been a team that's able to stash an expensive piece on the pine. He'll get his starts against lefties but that's not what the Twins envisioned last offseason when they signed him to the deal. He's a favorite of Gardy so he has that in his pocket but if Cuddyer knows what's good for him, he'll step up and produce this season.
Jason Kubel - 26 yo - 463, .272, 20, 78, .471, .335, 0
- Predicted '09 stats: .280, 25, 80
- He has a golden opportunity this season to breakout. His '08 season was sufficient but a quick start could finally cement himself as a 550 AB player. All he needs to do is get a couple of more hits off south paws. He hit 50 points lower against lefties in '08 and with his slotted 5th spot in the order likely, he'll be coming up to bat with Mauer and Morneau on base frequently. It's a nice position to be in. He just needs to produce. Otherwise, he'll forever be known as a platoon player.
Jason Pridie - 25 yo - (Rochester) - 554, .267, 12, 60, .426, .303, 25
- Apart of the Young/Garza trade last season was viewed as in contention for the starting centerfield spot. Potential won out in the end as Gomez was given the job but Pridie's future is still up in the air. If one of the 5 outfielders gets traded, he's the favorite as the replacement on the club. Ceiling is a 4th outfielder and he's not very patient at the plate but his speed and glove give him a chance to stick in the bigs for several years.
Luis Matos - 30 yo (Played in Mexico in '08)
- Has been out of MLB for 2 years, playing in Mexico. Made an impact for Baltimore earlier this decade, peaking in '03 with a .303, 13, 45 stat line. If he accepts an assignment to Rochester, he could eventually find himself in the bigs with the Twins at some point this season. Plays LF and bats right. If Pridie regresses, he could be considered for a promotion due to an injury or a trade. Not spectacular but gives the Twins a bit more depth in the system in the outfield.
Dustin Martin - 25 yo - (New Britain) - 510, .290, 10, 72, .447, .355, 22
- Acquired as apart of the Luis Castillo trade with the Mets 2 years ago. Strong kid that might join Pridie in the Rochester outfield. Decent prospect (probably in the 15 to 25 range in the system) with speed and a strong arm. Hasn't found his power stroke yet. I foresee an eventual promotion to the bigs and a strong start in '09 could mean it comes in the early fall.
David Winfree - 23 yo - (New Britain) - 453, .252, 19, 87, .450, .319, 2
- Once played 3rd. Now an outfielder. Free swinging kid with an upper cut stroke that can hit some bombs. If he makes better contact, he can avoid the dreaded Garrett Jones tag. More potential than any other outfielder in AA or AAA for the Twins but taking the next step is important.
Odds and Ends
Projected Everyday Lineup
1. Denard Span - RF
2. Alexi Casilla - 2B
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Justin Morneau - 1B
5. Jason Kubel - DH
6. Delmon Young - LF
7. Brian Buscher - 3B
8. Nick Punto - SS
9. Carlos Gomez - CF
Projected Bench
1. Mike Redmond - Backup Catcher
2. Michael Cuddyer - Backup RF/DH/1B
3. Brendan Harris - Platoon at 3rd with Buscher
4. Matt Tolbert - Backup middle infield
Projected Rotation
1. Scott Baker
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Glen Perkins
Projected Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan - Closer
2. Jesse Crain - #1 righty setup
3. Jose Mijares - #1 lefty setup
4. Craig Breslow - #2 lefty in pen
5. Matt Guerrier - Middle inning relief
6. Luis Ayala - Middle inning relief
7. Boof Bonser - Long Relief/Spot Starter
Best of ...
(Pitchers)
Fastball - Nathan
Change up - Baker
Curveball - Nathan
Slider - Liriano
Control - Slowey
"Out Pitch" - Liriano's Slider
Pickoff move - Breslow
Fielding their position - Slowey
(Hitters)
Power - Morneau
Contact - Mauer
Speed - Gomez
Bunter - Mauer
Outfield Arm - Young (Cuddyer close runner up)
Infield Arm - Plouffe
Outfield Range - Gomez
Infield Range - Machado
Outfield Glove - Cuddyer
Infield Glove - Punto
Burning Questions:
1. What's Minnesota's '09 record? 91-71
2. Where does Minnesota finish in the AL Central? 1st
3. How about the rest of the division? #2 Cleveland, #3 Chicago, #4 KC, #5 Detroit.
4. What about the AL East? #1 New York, #2 Tampa Bay, #3 Boston, #4 Toronto, #5 Baltimore
5. And the AL West? #1 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, #2 Oakland, #3 Texas, #4 Seattle
6. Who is the AL's wild card? Tampa Bay (Boston is 1st runner-up)
7. How will the NL shape up?
- East - Philly, New York, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
- Central - Chicago, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
- West - Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego
- Wild Card - St. Louis
8. No surprise team like the '08 Rays in '09? Correct. Biggest surprise will be Oakland and they'll still fall short of the playoffs.
9. Name the divisional playoff matchups: Yankees v Twins, Rays v Angels, Phillies v Cardinals, Cubs v Diamondbacks
10. LCS matchups? Yankees v Angels, Phillies v Cubs
11. World Series? Yankees v Phillies
12. World Series Winner? Yankees - I know...really going out on a limb. Just look at their lineup and rotation. Unbelievable.
13. Do you hate the Yankees as much as I do? Probably. They're evil. They're the reason baseball needs a salary cap (and floor by the way)
14. Well, they didn't make the playoffs last year. Maybe their payroll doesn't matter? Look at the previous 17 seasons and the likelihood a team with a payroll in the bottom half of baseball making the playoffs. It's darn near a miracle the Twins are as competitive as they are.
15. Al MVP: Vlad Guerrero
16. NL MVP: Ryan Howard
17. AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
18. NL Cy Young: Dan Haren
19. #1 off-the-field story line other than steroids? Financial difficulties of a half dozen MLB franchises. The economy will hit baseball hard. Drop in ad revenues and decline in attendance will force some teams to trade players for immediate salary relief.
Other Predictions (Twins-related)
1. Team MVP - Morneau - His poor finish to the '08 season will drive him all season long. Expect a monster year and a top 3 finish in the AL MVP race.
2. Team Cy Young - Nathan - Durable, reliable, twitchy...His high save percentage will be the main reason the Twins make the playoffs.
3. Breakout player - Slowey - His stat predictors say his ERA will decrease and his win total increase. He's smart enough that he'll figure out this pitching thing in '09. Expect a stat line around 16-8 with a 3.40 ERA or better
4. Breakdown player - Mauer - He's due for another injury. Kidney problems aside, he's not the most durable player. I expect at least 1 stay on the DL. He'll still get over 400 ABs but expect Redmond to start at least 50 games at catcher this year as I expect Mauer to see more time at DH
5. Having 5 outfielders for 4 positions(counting DH) isn't a bad thing. One or more will see some time on the DL. Having that depth will be needed. Unless the Twins are out of contention in July, I don't expect any of the 5 to be traded (most notably Cuddyer and Young)
6. Punto will get close to 500 ABs
7. Buscher and Harris will be an adequate platoon at 3rd. Buscher can hit righties. Harris can hit lefties. Their defense is the biggest problem. Of course Crede would be an upgrade if he signs and stays healthy.
8. The major holes will be at SS, middle relief, and defense on the left side of the infield. Harris, Buscher, and Punto all lack range and make mental mistakes. Punto gets the reputation as a "gamer" but he had too many mental lapses last season and he can cover only so much ground.
9. The Twins will make the playoffs if all of the following are true...
- Baker, Liriano, and Slowey make at least 28 starts each
- Morneau, Mauer, and Nathan are on the active roster for the vast majority of the season
- Span, Casilla, and Buscher play close to the level of the '08 stats
- Either Young or Gomez have a mini-breakout season (increase in their stats across the board)
- The Twins find (early on) 2 capable middle relievers.
10. The Twins will miss the playoffs (other than major injuries) if the young players either regress or fail to hit in the clutch. Simple as that.
Schedule Analysis:
1. Look for a quick start: 23 of the first 35 are at home.
2. Watch for a June Swoon instead of an uplift like last season: Starting June 5th, the Twins play 19 of 25 on the road.
3. This time around, the Twins will finish strong...The Twins have only 15 games against last year's playoff teams after the all-star break compared to 35 before the break.
4. The Twins play only 14 games on the West Coast in '09. History tells me that's a good thing as west coast swings have never been very kind to the Twins.
5. Balanced schedule? Not in baseball. The Twins might actually get a break. While each team in the division plays other teams 18 times, games outside the division are not equal. I'd put NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, CHC, STL, LAD, and ARI in a higher category Given that, here's the total games against those teams for everyone in the division:
Twins - 35
Indians - 37
White Sox - 42
Kansas City - 43
Detroit - 35
- It appears like the schedule gives the Twins somewhat of a break. The only negative I can see is that the Twins get Baltimore only 5 times. They will rival Seattle for the league's worst team.
- Projected opposing starting pitchers for the first 10 games:
Apr 6 - Felix Hernandez
Apr 7 - Erik Bedard
Apr 8 - Brandon Morrow
Apr 9 - Jarred Washburn or Carlos Silva
Apr 10 - Bartolo Colon
Apr 11 - Chris Richard
Apr 12 - Mark Buehrle
Apr 13 - David Purcy
Apr 14 - Dustin McGowen
Apr 15 - Chris Jannsen
Apr 16 - Roy Halladay
Summation:
The 2009 season will have a different feel than last year. Expectations are higher and there are really no new faces (maybe that's a good thing, cough, Mike Lamb, cough). This is still a young team with only a small handful of players older than 30 expected to make the club. Growth potential exists as does the dreaded sophomore slump for quite a few players entering their second full season in the bigs. What we should expect is slightly improved play from the starting pitchers and more consistent play from the young position players. What we shouldn't expect is the same level of BA with runners in scoring position. Hopefully the former compensates for the latter. As always, it should be an entertaining season (how can it not be with Gomez as a regular?) with streaks both ways. The AL Central is perceived to be a bit down compared to this time last year so the opportunity may exist for a playoff spot without needing 95 wins. In the last season in the bland Metrodome, sparks may ignite to bring the place down.
Baseball is unlike any other sport in that it occupies a stretch of a calendar without much competition and it delivers with games of your favorite team almost every day. It promises little else (unless you're the '09 Yankees).