Inside the numbers

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anonymous

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I'm not a total hoops stat geek, but I do find some value in looking at how fast a team plays (how many possessions they get during a game) and how efficient they are when it comes to points scored per possession.

I used the kenpom.com formula for determining possessions (FGA-OR+TO+ (.475 * FTA)) and ran some numbers. They are certainly at least interesting for the Gophers. Over 1.0 points per possession is decent. Over 1.05 is pretty good. And over 1.10 is very good. Under 1.0 isn't great. And under 0.95 is really not all that great at all.


2008-09 Full Season
The Gophers average 65.6 possessions per game and are scoring 1.04 points per possession.

2008-09 Big Ten season
The Gophers average 63.6 possessions per game and are scoring 0.980 points per possession.

The slowdown isn't a surprise because of the style of basketball that is played in the Big Ten. It also means that the Gophers are having to run more halfcourt offense AND that they aren't as good at it.

I pulled out the last eight games and the numbers are quite surprising
In those eight games (starting with the Northwestern game), the Gophers are averaging 65.95 possessions, but are scoring only 0.915 points per possession.

I think part of the reason why possessions are up is because of the team's massive number of turnovers in this stretch when compared with the rest of the season and the relatively few number of offensive rebounds. In these eight games, the Gophers have 30 more turnovers (120) than O rebounds (90).

But the points per possession is extremely scary. It's not a shock that this team isn't playing well offensively, but I didn't realize it was this bad.

Here is a little context:

Last season in Big Ten play, the Gophers average 65.15 possessions per game and averaged 1.012 points per possession.

Two years ago, the Molinari team averaged 62.15 possessions per Big Ten game and averaged .923 points per possession.

What does this mean:

This season's team plays close to as slow as the Molinari team and, over the last eight games, has been less efficient than that 3-13 team.

It's not a surprise the Gophers have been losing games.

The good news, however, is that KenPom still has the Gophers winning three of the last five Big Ten games. But the Badgers game here is very, very close to being a toss-up.
 


anonymous said:
I'm not a total hoops stat geek, but I do find some value in looking at how fast a team plays (how many possessions they get during a game) and how efficient they are when it comes to points scored per possession.

I used the kenpom.com formula for determining possessions (FGA-OR+TO+ (.475 * FTA)) and ran some numbers. They are certainly at least interesting for the Gophers. Over 1.0 points per possession is decent. Over 1.05 is pretty good. And over 1.10 is very good. Under 1.0 isn't great. And under 0.95 is really not all that great at all.


2008-09 Full Season
The Gophers average 65.6 possessions per game and are scoring 1.04 points per possession.

2008-09 Big Ten season
The Gophers average 63.6 possessions per game and are scoring 0.980 points per possession.

The slowdown isn't a surprise because of the style of basketball that is played in the Big Ten. It also means that the Gophers are having to run more halfcourt offense AND that they aren't as good at it.

I pulled out the last eight games and the numbers are quite surprising
In those eight games (starting with the Northwestern game), the Gophers are averaging 65.95 possessions, but are scoring only 0.915 points per possession.

I think part of the reason why possessions are up is because of the team's massive number of turnovers in this stretch when compared with the rest of the season and the relatively few number of offensive rebounds. In these eight games, the Gophers have 30 more turnovers (120) than O rebounds (90).

But the points per possession is extremely scary. It's not a shock that this team isn't playing well offensively, but I didn't realize it was this bad.

Here is a little context:

Last season in Big Ten play, the Gophers average 65.15 possessions per game and averaged 1.012 points per possession.

Two years ago, the Molinari team averaged 62.15 possessions per Big Ten game and averaged .923 points per possession.

What does this mean:

This season's team plays close to as slow as the Molinari team and, over the last eight games, has been less efficient than that 3-13 team.

It's not a surprise the Gophers have been losing games.

The good news, however, is that KenPom still has the Gophers winning three of the last five Big Ten games. But the Badgers game here is very, very close to being a toss-up.
Click to expand...

If games were played mathematically, the W or L results would be easy.

KenPom is interesting but that's all.

Gophers are better (overall) in 2009 season than 2008. And MUCH better than 2007 (Molinari).
 

They appear to be playing "scared". No creativity. I can't ell if it is their youth or just that the teams they are playing are better than last year.
 

FOT,

This was not meant to be a referendum on OTS. It was to simply point out just how far off the charts the efficiency of the Gophers offense has been over the past eight games.

There are certainly many ways to win or lose games. That is not in dispute. I don't understand why you have to constantly be so difficult on here.

I totally agree that this team is light years better than the 07 team and it is better than the 08 team. But at the same time, this team is not as good as it was a month ago.

To quote that noted hoops expert Dan Monson: "You're either getting better or you're getting worse. There is no staying the same."

He is a spitter and a nose-picker and a goober, but he is right with that statement. And this Gophers team, right now, is getting worse.
 


Tough Road Stretch

I will be glad when the Michigan game is behind the Gophers and they come home. 7 of the last 10 (after Michigan) have been on the road. That is a tough stretch in the Big Ten. If we can sneak out of Michigan with our 20th win of the season I will be really happy.
 

Now that we're in the final month of the season, I think it's pretty clear that offensively, we just aren't that good.

Veterans: Nolen, DJ, Blake, Jamal... all have their roles on offense, but none of them is close to a complete player. Payton was obviously a non-factor, as is Williams. Busch is close to that, but does give something from time to time. Westbrook is the closest thing we have to a complete player on offense skill wise, but his body does not suit his game and he's streaky. These are the guys who are in their 2nd year or higher on our team. These are the guys who should be leading the team right now, but the problem is they all have one or more major flaws. All of these players were brought in by Monson.

New guys: Bostick has been a disappointment so far. Carter is really just getting going, as is Iverson, Sampson and Joseph. It's really too early to tell how these guys are going to turn out, but so far what I've seen from Joseph, as well as Carter recently suggest that the future is brighter than what is being shown now. Iverson and Sampson have shown flashes but obviously have a long way to go.

I think we just need to remember that most of the veteran core of this team was recruited by a guy that we fired. The reason why we have as many wins as we do is because Tubby can teach defense. And when you take that coaching and add some more offensive skill (which we WILL see in the next couple years), I like our future.
 

When you consider experience and where the minutes are going to this team is pretty remakable. Just like football, it's just a hint of where we'll be in a couple of years. but we want it now!
 

>>Gophers are better (overall) in 2009 season than 2008.<<

I'm not sure about this. Our lineup lost a whole lot of senior experience and scoring due to graduation and replaced it with freshmen and other newcomers.
 



Gopher4Life said:
>>Gophers are better (overall) in 2009 season than 2008.<<

I'm not sure about this. Our lineup lost a whole lot of senior experience and scoring due to graduation and replaced it with freshmen and other newcomers.
Click to expand...

I don't think I'd agree with that either. Especially right now. I think we are pretty similar to last year. And last year's team had a better guy to turn to when you needed production and offense(McKenzie).
 

XMan said:
I will be glad when the Michigan game is behind the Gophers and they come home. 7 of the last 10 (after Michigan) have been on the road. That is a tough stretch in the Big Ten. If we can sneak out of Michigan with our 20th win of the season I will be really happy.
Click to expand...

Looks like we still play Mich twice. Holy moly.
 

Absolutely no go-to guy in this year's offense. Not that McKenzie was very consistent in that role either.
 

Absolutely no go-to guy in this year's offense. Not that McKenzie was very consistent in that role either.
Click to expand...

So what does this say about the job Tubby's done this year ?

I think outstanding.
 



Gopher4Life said:
Absolutely no go-to guy in this year's offense. Not that McKenzie was very consistent in that role either.
Click to expand...

I agree with that ... ever notice how often announcers/fans say it's great to have a balanced offense, yet in reality the best offenses usually have a big go-to scorer and are anything but balanced.
 

anonymous said:
FOT,

This was not meant to be a referendum on OTS. It was to simply point out just how far off the charts the efficiency of the Gophers offense has been over the past eight games.

There are certainly many ways to win or lose games. That is not in dispute. I don't understand why you have to constantly be so difficult on here.

I totally agree that this team is light years better than the 07 team and it is better than the 08 team. But at the same time, this team is not as good as it was a month ago.

To quote that noted hoops expert Dan Monson: "You're either getting better or you're getting worse. There is no staying the same."

He is a spitter and a nose-picker and a goober, but he is right with that statement. And this Gophers team, right now, is getting worse.
Click to expand...

Me neither. Gophers (team) better in 2009 than 2008, both of those much better than 2007.
 


My point was that even though this team is better than 07, its offense is brutal. So bad that it is comparable to the offense of a really bad team.
 

anonymous said:
My point was that even though this team is better than 07, its offense is brutal. So bad that it is comparable to the offense of a really bad team.
Click to expand...

The offense of the past 4 weeks (or so) is poor, or perhaps weak.

Early on, through mid January, the Gophers had a pretty decent offense.
 

I think all year people have talked down the experience of three reasonably talented offensive players in LMac, Spence, and Dan Coleman. I agree with all the criticisms laid upon them, really I do, but I think they presented a more aggressive offensive team both inside and outside the paint.

Say whatever you will about Spence but he had some reasonable moves down low and between his jumpshot and footwork he was far better than Colton, offensively. His presence down low opened up the inside-out game for Blake, Lawrence and others more so than RS or Colt this year.

Related arguments could be made about the offensive aggressiveness and experience of LW and Dan. I'm not saying that team is better, but their experience and offense is something this team lacks. This years team is deeper and more athletic and that more than makes up for those three sometimes, however there are days when we could use an Lmac three or a bizarre Spencer fall-away 8 footer.

Let's get Michigan. Would make life much nicer the next couple weeks.
 

That was kind of my point. That the bottom has fallen out of this offense over the past eight games. To the point where it has reached 07 levels.

I think poor is too generous to describe the offense over the past eight games.
 

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