Final 6 games

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GVBadger

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Wisconsin

OSU, at Indiana, at Michigan State, Michigan, at Minnesota, Indiana

Minnesota

at Penn State, at Michigan, Northwestern, at Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan

Michigan

at Northwestern, Minnesota, at Iowa, Purdue, at Wisconsin, at Minnesota

Penn State

Minnesota, at Illinois, at OSU, Indiana, Illinois, at Iowa

This looks like it is going to go right down to the finish. The Gophers lead by a game over the Badgers and PSU with Michigan two back. Michigan has four road games and has the two games with Minnesota. The Gophers have a very difficult finish and the next two games are huge, on the road against teams needing wins to help their tournament chances. Wisconsin gets Indiana twice, which never hurts. The Gophers and Badgers have much better RPI's then the other two.

The big question is whether you would rather finish 4th or 5th and get the bye and Michigan Sate if you win or if you would rather be sixth, get Indiana and be in the opposite bracket away from MSU.

Not out of the question that one of these teams could move up a place as well, given the balance of the conference. The Big 10 tournament should be amazing.
 

"The big question is whether you would rather finish 4th or 5th and get the bye and Michigan State if you win or if you would rather be sixth, get Indiana and be in the opposite bracket away from MSU."

GV, that's an easy one for me. I want no part of playing Thursday. Only bad things can happen to bubble teams if they're playing on Thursday. A win over Indiana does nothing for you, it just simply means you avoided the "bad loss." But a loss (which will be possible for whomever has to play the Hoosiers in Indy) to the last-place team in the league is something the Selection Committee would take note of. I want no part of the Gophers having to play Indiana again, strange as that may sound.

I'll take the 4-5 game and run, win or lose. If you do lose, at least it's vs. another likely NCAA team.
 

Michigan is in trouble. At 5-7 now and they need to get to 9-9 (which may be enough becasue of their non-conference exploits. I have a tough time seeing them getting 4 wins with 4 road games left.

Penn State likewise is in deep do-do with that schedule. We coudl effectively put them out of their misery if we can find ourselves Saturday.

Wisconsin is looking good for 10-8- as much as I hate to say it.

Gophs- need to hold home court or get and upset on the road- PSU ideally. If we are 9-9 and end up fifth we may be toast. At 9-9 we need AT LEAST one win in the BTT and maybe two.
 

Ideally, the Gophers hold home court at the very least, getting the conference mark to 10-8. Sitting at 10-8 in the league, with its high RPI this year, and having the overall mark of 22-8 with the help of the Louisville win in the non-conf, has to be an assured spot in the tournament.

At 9-9, which would require Northwestern, Wisconsin or Michigan to come to Williams and win, the Gophers are on shaky footing. A win this weekend in Pennsylvania would really put the Gophers in a good place, at 8-5 with three left on the home floor.

From the original post - I have to think all five teams that get a first-round bye in the BTT are in. If Minnesota is in this group, I think they're in. I imagine that the #6 team is in as well, so long as they survive Indiana on Thursday and show up for their Friday game. Ultimately, the four teams listed above are competing for two spots in my mind. Based on remaining schedule, I have to think these teams are Wisconsin and Minnesota.
 

I am worried about the home game vs Badgers. They want revenge and its our most crucial game left on the schedule.
 


Don't forget about Northwestern

I'm not ready to count out Northwestern just yet. They're still in this mix as well. I think they're more of a threat for a bid than Penn State is. The Wildcats have their next three games at home, all vs. tourney contenders (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State). If they win all or even 2 of those 3, they'll be 7-6 or 6-7 heading down the home stretch, with "winnable" games at Minnesota, at Indiana & home vs. Iowa.

Definitely can see a scenario where the Wildcats are 8-8 or maybe even 9-7 with at least a shot at a NCAA bid heading into their final (difficult) road swing (Purdue, Ohio State). Obviously, their game at home vs. Illinois tonight is monstrous to get this stretch off to a good start.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'm not ready to count out Northwestern just yet. They're still in this mix as well. I think they're more of a threat for a bid than Penn State is. The Wildcats have their next three games at home, all vs. tourney contenders (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State). If they win all or even 2 of those 3, they'll be 7-6 or 6-7 heading down the home stretch, with "winnable" games at Minnesota, at Indiana & home vs. Iowa.

Definitely can see a scenario where the Wildcats are 8-8 or maybe even 9-7 with at least a shot at a NCAA bid heading into their final (difficult) road swing (Purdue, Ohio State). Obviously, their game at home vs. Illinois tonight is monstrous to get this stretch off to a good start.
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I think that the Wildcats loss in IC last weekend will ultimately be their undoing.
 

Good point about the Iowa loss. ... that very well may be. But just like the Gophers, NW has many opportunities down the stretch to enhance their chances. I'd prefer NW lose tonight, basically pushing them more toward the NIT, and then maybe the Gophers can do the same to Penn State on Saturday.
 

I'm surprised by how much fretting there is about the remaining home schedule. All the games are certainly ones we could lose, but frankly it lays out about as nicely as we could want it.

Beginning with Indiana on Tuesday, ALL of the remaining four home games are/were against teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten. We have already faced the top four teams at home (MSU, OSU, PU, ILL). I mean, let's put it in perspective, short of having a home game against Iowa, we were/are in the best setup possible for those final four contests. Does that mean we could lose one? Of course, we could. But, in reality, we're in good shape.

And, the same for the road schedule (save Illinois). We have two against teams below us. What more can we ask? We have the benefit on not having to play at Purdue, too.
 



Are we thinking 23 wins to get us off the bubble? Is 22 not going to be enough? Hows it looking this year, or is it still to early for bubble talk?
 

Schnoodler said:
Are we thinking 23 wins to get us off the bubble? Is 22 not going to be enough? Hows it looking this year, or is it still to early for bubble talk?
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Just my personal opinion, but I'd simplistically break it down this way (knowing there are variables on HOW we get to this number and WHOM we beat to get to this number):

20 or fewer wins: NIT bound
21 wins: on the NCAA bubble (60% chance we're in)
22 wins: almost no scenario keeps us out of the in NCAA (85% chance in)
23+ wins: absolute lock for the NCAA (100% in)
 

22-8 (21-8 vs. D-I opponents) makes the Gophers lock city. Any combination of 3 wins in their final 6 regular-season games will leave zero doubt heading into Indianapolis. Anything less than that & the BTT will take on added meaning for our Gophers.
 

SelectionSunday said:
22-8 (21-8 vs. D-I opponents) makes the Gophers lock city. Any combination of 3 wins in their final 6 regular-season games will leave zero doubt heading into Indianapolis. Anything less than that & the BTT will take on added meaning for our Gophers.
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I agree. If we get to 22 prior to the BTT, we're a lock.

However, I factored into my 22-win total the possibility that we go 2-4 the rest of the way, putting us at 9-9 in the league (21-10 overall), a possible 6th seed, and winning one on Thursday to get to 22. Then, we lose on Friday. That scenario to get to 22 might not get us into the NCAA, although it still could (thus, my 85% rating). But, yes, if we're talking regular season wins, then 22 puts us into the tourney for sure.
 




We're on the same page TJ. I'm hoping for a BTT appearance that won't require antacid, so let's get those 3 wins prior to March 12.
 




tjgopher said:
I'm surprised by how much fretting there is about the remaining home schedule. All the games are certainly ones we could lose, but frankly it lays out about as nicely as we could want it.

Beginning with Indiana on Tuesday, ALL of the remaining four home games are/were against teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten. We have already faced the top four teams at home (MSU, OSU, PU, ILL). I mean, let's put it in perspective, short of having a home game against Iowa, we were/are in the best setup possible for those final four contests. Does that mean we could lose one? Of course, we could. But, in reality, we're in good shape.

And, the same for the road schedule (save Illinois). We have two against teams below us. What more can we ask? We have the benefit on not having to play at Purdue, too.
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Agreed. The Gophers are not the best team in the Big 10, but they are better than everybody left on their schedule. Illinois is a half game ahead of MN in the conference standings, but they still get MSU and OSU one more time and we beat them by 23 the first time around. The Gophers will probably finish 4-2, but maybe they get hot and go 5-1. The team isn't great offensively, but they've shown they can find a way to win even when they don't play well. After they win Saturday I think everybody will take a deep breath, and then we can all argue about whether or not they can get back to a 5 seed (and if Mike Slive's comments about keeping teams close to home could mean a first round game in Minneapolis/KC for the Gophs).

I'm also pretty psyched for the game against Wisconsin....no way the crowd lets them lose that game. Especially if they can deliver a possible knock out punch to the Badgers at large chances.
 

"GV, that's an easy one for me. I want no part of playing Thursday. Only bad things can happen to bubble teams if they're playing on Thursday. A win over Indiana does nothing for you, it just simply means you avoided the "bad loss." But a loss (which will be possible for whomever has to play the Hoosiers in Indy) to the last-place team in the league is something the Selection Committee would take note of. I want no part of the Gophers having to play Indiana again, strange as that may sound."

Excellent analysis, IMO. Not strange at all.

"22-8 (21-8 vs. D-I opponents) makes the Gophers lock city. Any combination of 3 wins in their final 6 regular-season games will leave zero doubt heading into Indianapolis."

Don't necessarily agree with you there. It's entirely possible that 7 teams will have 10-8 or better records. I don't think the BT gets 7 teams. Maybe not even 6. Lets say we finish tied for 5th with Wisc, and we end up losing to Ind on Thurs. Given our nonconf schedule (although that Louisville win is looking nice,) we could end up on the outside. I'm not saying we have no chance--only that there are plenty of scenarios where we are 10-8 that for me would create lots more than zero doubt.

But I hope you're right.
 


Yeah, in the next couple of weeks it will be interesting. I still see the Gophers getting to 10-8 when it's all said and done. IF so, they are in. If they win one game in the BT Tourney, they will be a 8th or 9th seed...which seems about right...two wins? Who knows.....7th or 6th seed? I like their chances in the NCAA tourney to win one, maybe two games. Once we're in all, all kinds of things can (and usually does) happen, so it'll be great TV.
 

I think 4-2 in these final 6 with the loses coming to two of these three:
Ill, Wisc, PSU

that sets us at 23-7 going into the BTT. Probably the five seed. Win our first, lose to MSU in our 2nd. 24-8. Thats enough to get in right their. even losing right away and going 23-8, i believe we get in atleast as a 8-11 seed.
 

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