Comparing Tubby with the other 2007 hires

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With at least some of the population frustrated or disappointed with where Tubby has the Gophers toward the end of his fourth season, I wanted to compare him with other hires that were made that season.

In that offseason there were 11 coaching changes at Super Six conferences. I also looked up a few other hires from that season outside of those leagues.

Of the 11 power conference hires, four of those coaches have already been fired or moved on. Jeff Bzdelik was hired at Colorado and he is now at Wake Forest. Todd Lickliter (Iowa), Billy Gillispie (Kentucky) and Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest) were fired.

Here is a look at the others. Current season records are vs. D1 opponents via collegerpi.com

Tubby
First three years: 63-39 overall, 26-28 Big Ten
This season: 17-8, 6-7
NCAA tournament appearances/victories: 2/0
On track to make tournament this year: Yes

John Pelphrey, Arkansas
First three years: 51-47, 18-30 SEC
This season: 15-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track to make tournament this year: No

Frank Martin, Kansas State
First three years: 72-32, 30-19 Big 12
This season: 17-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 2/3
On track: Yes

John Beilein, Michigan
First three years: 46-53, 21-33 Big Ten
This season: 16-10, 6-7
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: Unlikely

Stan Heath, South Florida
First three years: 41-54, 16-38 Big East
This season: 8-18, 3-11
NCAA appearances/victories: 0/0
On track: No

Mark Turgeon, Texas A&M
First three years: 73-31, 28-20 Big 12
This season: 19-5, 6-4
NCAA appearances/victories: 3/3
On track: Yes

Bob Huggins, West Virginia
First three years: 80-30, 34-20 Big East
This season: 16-9, 7-6
NCAA appearances/victories 3/6 (including a Final Four)
On track: Yes

Other hires of note that offseason

Brad Stevens, Butler
First three years: 89-15, 49-5 Horizon
This season: 18-9, 10-5
NCAA appearances/victories 3-6 (including a Final Four)
On track: No

Steve Alford, New Mexico
First three years: 76-26, 37-11 Mountain West
This season: 17-8, 5-5
NCAA appearances/victories 1/1
On track: No

Rick Majerus, Saint Louis
First three seasons: 57-42, 26-22 Atlantic 10
This season: 8-16, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 0
On track: No

Jim Boylen, Utah
First three seasons: 56-42, 26-22 Mountain West
This season: 10-15, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: No


By the numbers of the remaining Super Six conference coaches:

Total victories
Huggins 96
Turgeon 92
Martin 89
Tubby 80
Pelphrey 66
Beilein 62
Heath 49

Conference victories (not all leagues play the same number of games/yr)
Huggins 41
Martin 35
Turgeon 34
Tubby 32
Beilein 27
Pelphrey 23
Heath 19

NCAA tournament appearances
3: Turgeon, Huggins
2: Martin, Tubby
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Heath

NCAA tournament victories
6: Huggins
3: Martin, Turgeon
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Tubby, Heath


Just wanted to share the data. I think it shows that Tubby has been a solid, but not spectacular hire when measured against others hired at the same time.
 

Tubby is doing fantastic with what he inherited compared to the other coaches as well. A&M was hardly a rebuilding job. Neither was WVU. In that context, I think Tubby has done the best with what he had. No doubt.

Minnesota was a true rebuilding job having won only 9 games the year before Tubby. The other rebuilding jobs would be Michigan, Arkansas, South Florida, and St. Louis. Tubby compares quite favorably.

Gillespie left Turgeon DeAndre Daniels, who is in the NBA right now. A&M was very good when Gillespie left. Also, Huggins had some great players at WVU like Ruoff and Alexander, who is also in the NBA. And of course, Martin inherited a great squad from Huggins at KSU. Unfair to compare Tubby's first year to those teams really.
 

Good data - thanks.

Just wondering how Tim Miles has done since his hire at CSU

and VCU coach that went to Alabama - they were high on the speculation chain before Tubby came.
 

Great stats.

I think another good equalizer would be win% vs ranked teams? or win% vs RPI top 25?

Is this team beating good teams? Minnesota has beat a lot of bad teams. Maybe everyone does?
 

KyGopherfan said:
Tubby is doing fantastic with what he inherited compared to the other coaches as well. A&M was hardly a rebuilding job. Neither was WVU. In that context, I think Tubby has done the best with what he had. No doubt.

Minnesota was a true rebuilding job having won only 9 games the year before Tubby. The other rebuilding jobs would be Michigan, Arkansas, South Florida, and St. Louis. Tubby compares quite favorably.

Gillespie left Turgeon DeAndre Daniels, who is in the NBA right now. A&M was very good when Gillespie left. Also, Huggins had some great players at WVU like Ruoff and Alexander, who is also in the NBA. And of course, Martin inherited a great squad from Huggins at KSU. Unfair to compare Tubby's first year to those teams really.
Click to expand...

You figured out the missing link in the other post.
 


anonymous said:
With at least some of the population frustrated or disappointed with where Tubby has the Gophers toward the end of his fourth season, I wanted to compare him with other hires that were made that season.

In that offseason there were 11 coaching changes at Super Six conferences. I also looked up a few other hires from that season outside of those leagues.

Of the 11 power conference hires, four of those coaches have already been fired or moved on. Jeff Bzdelik was hired at Colorado and he is now at Wake Forest. Todd Lickliter (Iowa), Billy Gillispie (Kentucky) and Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest) were fired.

Here is a look at the others. Current season records are vs. D1 opponents via collegerpi.com

Tubby
First three years: 63-39 overall, 26-28 Big Ten
This season: 17-8, 6-7
NCAA tournament appearances/victories: 2/0
On track to make tournament this year: Yes

John Pelphrey, Arkansas
First three years: 51-47, 18-30 SEC
This season: 15-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track to make tournament this year: No

Frank Martin, Kansas State
First three years: 72-32, 30-19 Big 12
This season: 17-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 2/3
On track: Yes

John Beilein, Michigan
First three years: 46-53, 21-33 Big Ten
This season: 16-10, 6-7
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: Unlikely

Stan Heath, South Florida
First three years: 41-54, 16-38 Big East
This season: 8-18, 3-11
NCAA appearances/victories: 0/0
On track: No

Mark Turgeon, Texas A&M
First three years: 73-31, 28-20 Big 12
This season: 19-5, 6-4
NCAA appearances/victories: 3/3
On track: Yes

Bob Huggins, West Virginia
First three years: 80-30, 34-20 Big East
This season: 16-9, 7-6
NCAA appearances/victories 3/6 (including a Final Four)
On track: Yes

Other hires of note that offseason

Brad Stevens, Butler
First three years: 89-15, 49-5 Horizon
This season: 18-9, 10-5
NCAA appearances/victories 3-6 (including a Final Four)
On track: No

Steve Alford, New Mexico
First three years: 76-26, 37-11 Mountain West
This season: 17-8, 5-5
NCAA appearances/victories 1/1
On track: No

Rick Majerus, Saint Louis
First three seasons: 57-42, 26-22 Atlantic 10
This season: 8-16, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 0
On track: No

Jim Boylen, Utah
First three seasons: 56-42, 26-22 Mountain West
This season: 10-15, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: No


By the numbers of the remaining Super Six conference coaches:

Total victories
Huggins 96
Turgeon 92
Martin 89
Tubby 80
Pelphrey 66
Beilein 62
Heath 49

Conference victories (not all leagues play the same number of games/yr)
Huggins 41
Martin 35
Turgeon 34
Tubby 32
Beilein 27
Pelphrey 23
Heath 19

NCAA tournament appearances
3: Turgeon, Huggins
2: Martin, Tubby
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Heath

NCAA tournament victories
6: Huggins
3: Martin, Turgeon
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Tubby, Heath


Just wanted to share the data. I think it shows that Tubby has been a solid, but not spectacular hire when measured against others hired at the same time.
Click to expand...

How many of those coaches have ever won NCAA title?

A very small number but not 0.
 


FOT,

On consecutive posts you talk about how Tubby's performance should take into account the lack of talent he inherited and then that he won a national title with a team he inherited.

Either inherited talent matters. Or it doesn't matter.

It can't matter only when it is to your benefit. So which is it?


And I posted the numbers because I thought they were interesting.
 

anonymous said:
FOT,

On consecutive posts you talk about how Tubby's performance should take into account the lack of talent he inherited and then that he won a national title with a team he inherited.

Either inherited talent matters. Or it doesn't matter.

It can't matter only when it is to your benefit. So which is it?

And I posted the numbers because I thought they were interesting.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying Tubby should W the NCAA (in 2008) with talent he inherited.

The comparison of 2007 coaching hires SHOULD. And so should a comparison of 1997 hires.

I like Mark Turgeon as the best "young" coach on your list.
 



anonymous said:
FOT,

On consecutive posts you talk about how Tubby's performance should take into account the lack of talent he inherited and then that he won a national title with a team he inherited.

Either inherited talent matters. Or it doesn't matter.

It can't matter only when it is to your benefit. So which is it?

And I posted the numbers because I thought they were interesting.
Click to expand...

Which 2 programs on your list had very little basketball "tradition" in 2007?

Texas A&M and Minnesota are the 2 that I'd offer.
 

FOT,

You didn't answer the question. You said Tubby shouldn't be compared with other Spring 07 hires because of different situations they inherited.

But you then say only 1 has a NCAA title. But Tubby won that with an inherited roster.

So you tend to treat inherited players differently based on how it helps your argument.

And which coach on the list has the most Final Four appearances?
 

Coaches are responsible for the players they recruit. I'm sure some of those other coaches have had their share of problems. But I can't believe any of them had to deal with the bad luck that Tubby has. His best recruit never plays because he's an immature head case whose priority is his friends rather than his team. Trevor loses a whole year because of legal maneuvering. Carter transfers because of his sister's cancer. Nolen breaks his foot about the same time that Joseph torches all bridges. Walker blows out his knee. Without even half of this stuff, Tubby would be way above a "solid" hire.
 

How do their salaries compare?
 



anonymous said:
With at least some of the population frustrated or disappointed with where Tubby has the Gophers toward the end of his fourth season, I wanted to compare him with other hires that were made that season.

In that offseason there were 11 coaching changes at Super Six conferences. I also looked up a few other hires from that season outside of those leagues.

Of the 11 power conference hires, four of those coaches have already been fired or moved on. Jeff Bzdelik was hired at Colorado and he is now at Wake Forest. Todd Lickliter (Iowa), Billy Gillispie (Kentucky) and Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest) were fired.

Here is a look at the others. Current season records are vs. D1 opponents via collegerpi.com

Tubby
First three years: 63-39 overall, 26-28 Big Ten
This season: 17-8, 6-7
NCAA tournament appearances/victories: 2/0
On track to make tournament this year: Yes

John Pelphrey, Arkansas
First three years: 51-47, 18-30 SEC
This season: 15-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track to make tournament this year: No

Frank Martin, Kansas State
First three years: 72-32, 30-19 Big 12
This season: 17-9, 5-6
NCAA appearances/victories: 2/3
On track: Yes

John Beilein, Michigan
First three years: 46-53, 21-33 Big Ten
This season: 16-10, 6-7
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: Unlikely

Stan Heath, South Florida
First three years: 41-54, 16-38 Big East
This season: 8-18, 3-11
NCAA appearances/victories: 0/0
On track: No

Mark Turgeon, Texas A&M
First three years: 73-31, 28-20 Big 12
This season: 19-5, 6-4
NCAA appearances/victories: 3/3
On track: Yes

Bob Huggins, West Virginia
First three years: 80-30, 34-20 Big East
This season: 16-9, 7-6
NCAA appearances/victories 3/6 (including a Final Four)
On track: Yes

Other hires of note that offseason

Brad Stevens, Butler
First three years: 89-15, 49-5 Horizon
This season: 18-9, 10-5
NCAA appearances/victories 3-6 (including a Final Four)
On track: No

Steve Alford, New Mexico
First three years: 76-26, 37-11 Mountain West
This season: 17-8, 5-5
NCAA appearances/victories 1/1
On track: No

Rick Majerus, Saint Louis
First three seasons: 57-42, 26-22 Atlantic 10
This season: 8-16, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 0
On track: No

Jim Boylen, Utah
First three seasons: 56-42, 26-22 Mountain West
This season: 10-15, 3-8
NCAA appearances/victories: 1/1
On track: No


By the numbers of the remaining Super Six conference coaches:

Total victories
Huggins 96
Turgeon 92
Martin 89
Tubby 80
Pelphrey 66
Beilein 62
Heath 49

Conference victories (not all leagues play the same number of games/yr)
Huggins 41
Martin 35
Turgeon 34
Tubby 32
Beilein 27
Pelphrey 23
Heath 19

NCAA tournament appearances
3: Turgeon, Huggins
2: Martin, Tubby
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Heath

NCAA tournament victories
6: Huggins
3: Martin, Turgeon
1: Pelphrey, Beilein
0: Tubby, Heath


Just wanted to share the data. I think it shows that Tubby has been a solid, but not spectacular hire when measured against others hired at the same time.
Click to expand...

I don't see any problem with being disappointed in Tubby. It shows there were expectations where there were none before. Certainly a number of aspects could be better but I don't advocate for his head. I also don't advocate for the kind of money he seems to be demanding based upon results so far.
 

Someone did a lot of good research to come up with these numbers, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Tubby inherited a program with something like 8 wins the year before (my memory is failing me), and 1 NCAA Tourney visit in 5+ yrs. They made the NIT the 1st year, with one of the best turnarounds in the country, and the NCAAs the next 2. This season, Sporting News/Street & Smiths picked Minnesota to finish 8th in the Big Ten, yet they clearly were on pace to be well above that, until injuries occured. Every team has injuries, but the team is still meeting the pre-season national expectations even with the injuries; they were just surpassing them before that.

As was mentioned about the Coaches who have won more since being hired, Bob Huggins went to Wva when the successful John Beilein took what he saw as a promotion (Mountaineers suddenly had an Elite 8 & Sweet 16 under Beilein after being irrelevant for years). Mark Turgeon took over TX A&M after Billy Gillespie took his dream job at Kentucky. Frank Martin took over K-State after Bob Huggins made them relevant (having Michael Beasley didn't hurt performance or recruiting either, but no question K-State is one of the biggest overall disappointments this year). Brad Stevens was an assistant for Todd Lickliter, who got the Iowa job because Butler was doing so well. All were programs doing well enough to get promotions for their coaches. Tubby took over for Dan Monson, who was given the option to leave, or be fired. Considering that comparison, and the increased % of wins during his tenure as compared to the previous 4 years (not to mention injuries, transfers & legal issues) he has probably done the most impressive job of the coaches hired that season.
 


The Zero NCAA wins certainly sticks out in Tubby's tenure. My own expectations for Tubby Smith before he coached his first game were as follows:

Year 1: Do something to improve the culture of the program, actually compete instead of lie down like the Gophers did the year before
Year 2: Hopefully contend for the NCAA tournament, make the NIT at minimum
Year 3: Must be in the tournament, compete for top half of the Big Ten
Year 4: Win in the tournament hopefully to the sweet 16, be in the top 3-4 of the Big Ten

Tubby exceeded my initial expectations for on court success in years one and two and met my expectations in year 3. Year 4 might (MIGHT) be the first year where he fails to reach my expectations. Obviously, my expectations for year 3 were greatly raised by the team Tubby had compiled by then, but looking at it only for what I expected when he was hired he still was meeting expectations. That said, this is a bad time for momentum to be slowing down as I certainly expected Tubby to have the type of team that could contend for championships most years going in to year 5 and beyond. It could easily be that we're just a year behind schedule due to all the attrition.
 

anonymous said:
FOT,

You didn't answer the question. You said Tubby shouldn't be compared with other Spring 07 hires because of different situations they inherited.

But you then say only 1 has a NCAA title. But Tubby won that with an inherited roster.

So you tend to treat inherited players differently based on how it helps your argument.

And which coach on the list has the most Final Four appearances?
Click to expand...

Not FOT, but I didn't know Tubby had an asterisk on his championship ring? News to me.

Not sure about Final Fours, but I think Huggins and Tubby are it. Tubby has also been Elite Eights as well, not to mention a slew of conference titles.
 

anonymous said:
FOT,

You didn't answer the question. You said Tubby shouldn't be compared with other Spring 07 hires because of different situations they inherited.

But you then say only 1 has a NCAA title. But Tubby won that with an inherited roster.

So you tend to treat inherited players differently based on how it helps your argument.

And which coach on the list has the most Final Four appearances?
Click to expand...

Bob Huggins (to the last ?). Tubby is 2-0 versus Huggs.

Tubby took 9-22 team and coached them to 20-14 in 2008.

He took remnants (8 players gone) from 1996 and 97 UK teams and led them to NCAA title. He had no full-time starters back, no all-conference players, none who averaged even 10 ppg before (on that 98 team).
 

EG#9 said:
The Zero NCAA wins certainly sticks out in Tubby's tenure. My own expectations for Tubby Smith before he coached his first game were as follows:

Year 1: Do something to improve the culture of the program, actually compete instead of lie down like the Gophers did the year before
Year 2: Hopefully contend for the NCAA tournament, make the NIT at minimum
Year 3: Must be in the tournament, compete for top half of the Big Ten
Year 4: Win in the tournament hopefully to the sweet 16, be in the top 3-4 of the Big Ten

Tubby exceeded my initial expectations for on court success in years one and two and met my expectations in year 3. Year 4 might (MIGHT) be the first year where he fails to reach my expectations. Obviously, my expectations for year 3 were greatly raised by the team Tubby had compiled by then, but looking at it only for what I expected when he was hired he still was meeting expectations. That said, this is a bad time for momentum to be slowing down as I certainly expected Tubby to have the type of team that could contend for championships most years going in to year 5 and beyond. It could easily be that we're just a year behind schedule due to all the attrition.
Click to expand...

0 postseason W (NIT or NCAA) is unusual for Tubby. Only once before (1997 at Georgia) did his teams fail to W at least one NCAA game (aka One & Done).
 

TrueLiz said:
Someone did a lot of good research to come up with these numbers, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Tubby inherited a program with something like 8 wins the year before (my memory is failing me), and 1 NCAA Tourney visit in 5+ yrs. They made the NIT the 1st year, with one of the best turnarounds in the country, and the NCAAs the next 2. This season, Sporting News/Street & Smiths picked Minnesota to finish 8th in the Big Ten, yet they clearly were on pace to be well above that, until injuries occured. Every team has injuries, but the team is still meeting the pre-season national expectations even with the injuries; they were just surpassing them before that.

As was mentioned about the Coaches who have won more since being hired, Bob Huggins went to Wva when the successful John Beilein took what he saw as a promotion (Mountaineers suddenly had an Elite 8 & Sweet 16 under Beilein after being irrelevant for years). Mark Turgeon took over TX A&M after Billy Gillespie took his dream job at Kentucky. Frank Martin took over K-State after Bob Huggins made them relevant (having Michael Beasley didn't hurt performance or recruiting either, but no question K-State is one of the biggest overall disappointments this year). Brad Stevens was an assistant for Todd Lickliter, who got the Iowa job because Butler was doing so well. All were programs doing well enough to get promotions for their coaches. Tubby took over for Dan Monson, who was given the option to leave, or be fired. Considering that comparison, and the increased % of wins during his tenure as compared to the previous 4 years (not to mention injuries, transfers & legal issues) he has probably done the most impressive job of the coaches hired that season.
Click to expand...

Very well said. Thank you. I have a feeling the original poster is a former employee of Enron. Stats can be twisted to misslead the public.

Go Gophers
 

Had Michigan already hired Beilein by the time UM hired Tubby? I don't remember the timing/circumstances of those hires, except that Tubby was a bit out of nowhere.
 

The-Real-Truth:

The original poster isn't a former employee of Enron.

I was simply curious. When I started the exercise, I couldn't even remember who else had been hired that offseason. I knew about Beilein and Lickliter as they came into the league at the same time. Other than that, I couldn't really remember.

This wasn't meant to be an indictment of Tubby, it was simply an exercise to provide some context/info.

I know as much as anybody that every job isn't the same. That's obvious. There are things that Tubby has done that have been good. There are other areas in which I'm not sure he has delivered.

One interesting thing of late has been how the hardline Tubby defenders are now repeatedly talking about the lack of tradition at Minnesota and how the program was in such horrible shape when he got here. If he was THAT good as we were repeatedly told, I would think that he might be at least .500 in Big Ten play by this point. Or I would have thought that the program wouldn't have gotten to the point where entering Year 5, there would be at least something of a plan at point guard.
 

anonymous said:
The-Real-Truth:

The original poster isn't a former employee of Enron.

I was simply curious. When I started the exercise, I couldn't even remember who else had been hired that offseason. I knew about Beilein and Lickliter as they came into the league at the same time. Other than that, I couldn't really remember.

This wasn't meant to be an indictment of Tubby, it was simply an exercise to provide some context/info.

I know as much as anybody that every job isn't the same. That's obvious. There are things that Tubby has done that have been good. There are other areas in which I'm not sure he has delivered.

One interesting thing of late has been how the hardline Tubby defenders are now repeatedly talking about the lack of tradition at Minnesota and how the program was in such horrible shape when he got here. If he was THAT good as we were repeatedly told, I would think that he might be at least .500 in Big Ten play by this point. Or I would have thought that the program wouldn't have gotten to the point where entering Year 5, there would be at least something of a plan at point guard.
Click to expand...

Perhaps you should apply to [email protected] as his replacement. No doubt you know more than he does, despite 467 career W in 20 years as Div I coach.
 

CSU with Tim Miles is on the bubble for the ncaa. I believe they are 3rd in the Mountain West at 7-3 behind only #6 San Diego St. and #8 BYU right now. He is the only canidate of those listed that could have been had that is doing well. With his Dakota and Minnesota ties I could see him being on the radar when Tubby leaves/retires.
 

Anticalihan:

Here are total wins against RPI top 25 teams (don't have time to go through and count losses as well as they aren't as easy to pick out on collegerpi.com)

Huggins: 14
Tubby: 10
Martin: 7
Pelphrey: 6
Turgeon: 4
Beilein: 3
Heath: 2
 

anonymous said:
Anticalihan:

Here are total wins against RPI top 25 teams (don't have time to go through and count losses as well as they aren't as easy to pick out on collegerpi.com)

Huggins: 14
Tubby: 10
Martin: 7
Pelphrey: 6
Turgeon: 4
Beilein: 3
Heath: 2
Click to expand...

Likely Huggins and Tubby are 1-2 on Most L against Top 25 RPI teams because Big East and B10 have more Top 25 RPI teams (lately) than other conferences.
 

FOT, I would guess Heath and Beilein probably have more as Tubby and Huggins have had more top 25 wins. All probably have fairly similar numbers of games played.
 

Top 25 RPI losses of Big East/Big Ten coaches on the list

Beilein: 26
Heath: 24
Huggs: 22
Tubby: 21
 


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