Big time upset alert

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MaroonGopher

MaroonGopher

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Looking through the Predict the Score thread on here, I noticed that 100 percent of people expect Minnesota to win tonight. Why? What makes anyone think the Wildcats can't win this game? This contest has all the perfect ingredients for an upset.

First, Northwestern can shoot the 3 better than anyone Minnesota will play this season. With Minnesota's best perimeter defender done for the season, the Cats should have little trouble making deep shots. Does anyone remember how Minny played without Nolen earlier this season? The Gophers simply couldn't stop any team from making the long ball

Second, their 1-3-1 zone. It has always caused problems for Minnesota. Without Nolen to navigate the trap, it's going to be just that much more difficult to find open shots. Minnesota is a poor 3-point shooting team, so it's not like we are going to be able to shoot our way out of the zone.

Third, Northwestern NEVER turns the ball over. If Minnesota falls behind, the crowd is going to get bored of the Cats' methodical offense. It's also going to become difficult to come back against a team that possesses the ball for so long on offense.

Fourth, John Shurna. I hate that the Big Ten's premier offensive threat looks like an ugly Division III small forward, but he's legit.

I am going to say it first, I believe Minnesota will lose this game. I LOVE THE GOPHERS AND IT'S BEEN A FUN SEASON THUS FAR. LET ME REPEAT SO I DON'T GET BLASTED: I LOVE THE GOPHERS AND IT'S BEEN A FUN SEASON THUS FAR, but I just have a bad feeling about this. Besides, it's a MUST WIN and I've come to expect the worst with this program.
 


Gophers will probably fall behind as NW hits a few threes early...then we'll wear them down inside...This game will resemble the Michigan game, only we'll pull away late. 82-68.
 


Maybe everyone on the GOPHER message board is a homer? I'll be the first to tell you that I am and I make judgments based on that fact.

That said, it's ridiculous to expect to lose this game when you're a top 20 team in the nation. That doesn't mean they won't lose or that NU has no shot, what I mean is that as fans of a ranked team, how can you expect to lose to Northwestern at home?? Like, honestly. I don't care what they do that gives us fits, this is a home game against Northwestern a team that just got toasted up by the Badgers, we should be expecting a win, with or without Al Nolen. Again, that doesn't mean they won't lose this game, I'd be lying if I said NU doesn't cause some alarm in this one, but no chance I'm going to come into this game expecting them to lose it.
 


"With Minnesota's best perimeter defender done for the season, the Cats should have little trouble making deep shots"

much of what MaroonGopher said has some merit to it but though Northwestern should be able to get their shots from outside making them is a whole different thing. the issue will be if they are making the 3's the upset probably will happen.
 



It may have been MaroonGopher who called the Virginia upset. I could be wrong though.

We've split with Northwestern the last few years. I wouldn't be overly surprised if we lost at their place, not here though. I think the Gophers have a lot to prove tonight and I think they'll put to rest any doubts we have. ( from an unabashedly Gopher homer :) )
 



MaroonGopher, don't you expect a loss everytime? You're definitely one negative nanny on this board. If we were playing Sister of the Poor, you'd come up with 100 reasons why we could lose. I'd love to see you post some reasons why we could win, instead of losing all the time.
 

Don, speaking of lakesbison, did you ever get that $10? :)

I think the Gophers can focus 100% on guarding the perimeter. NW is not going to have any success in the lane, we don't have to drop in to double team, we need our long armed guys to stay in the shooters' faces. On the other end, we bang it inside, over and over *insert joke here*, and win just like we did at Michigan.

Blake takes care of the ball, makes some sweet passes, and we win! I hope it's that easy.
 

They are also the worst rebounding team in the league and have zero paint presence. Yes, they absolutely could win, they shouldn't lose at home, but it wouldn't be a "Big Time Upset". People are well aware of what NU brings to the table. What fun is there in predicting a Gopher loss? I tried it last week against PU and decided that was no fun.
 

Northwestern's 1-3-1 is a shadow of its old self now that Jeremy Nash has graduated.
 



GophersOnTheRise said:
BigGopherFan? Is that you?
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It's gotta be. I've been thinking the same thing since he started posting. One thing about BigGopherFan, everything he predicted turned out the opposite. So if the Gophers win tonight....it will seal the deal in my mind that it's BigGopherFan.;)
 

MaroonGopher said:
Second, their 1-3-1 zone. It has always caused problems for Minnesota. Without Nolen to navigate the trap, it's going to be just that much more difficult to find open shots. Minnesota is a poor 3-point shooting team, so it's not like we are going to be able to shoot our way out of the zone.
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Just a little nitpick. You don't shoot your way out of a 1-3-1 zone with 3 pointers. The weakness is in the interior and the along the baseline usually. So you really want to get the ball inside. If we're depending on our 3 point shooting then we're going about this all wrong. However, because we only see this 2 times a year I agree that it will be difficult for us to figure out and that will be where the game hinges.
 

Second, their 1-3-1 zone. It has always caused problems for Minnesota.
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Am I mistaken or doesn't Michigan and a while ago West Virginia run a 1-3-1?
 

GopherGack said:
Just a little nitpick. You don't shoot your way out of a 1-3-1 zone with 3 pointers. The weakness is in the interior and the along the baseline usually. So you really want to get the ball inside. If we're depending on our 3 point shooting then we're going about this all wrong. However, because we only see this 2 times a year I agree that it will be difficult for us to figure out and that will be where the game hinges.
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Exactly. Michigan runs some 1-3-1 also, so I'm sure they have been practicing against it since the Purdue game. Baseline and inside out against the 1-3-1.
 

GopherGack said:
Just a little nitpick. You don't shoot your way out of a 1-3-1 zone with 3 pointers. The weakness is in the interior and the along the baseline usually. So you really want to get the ball inside. If we're depending on our 3 point shooting then we're going about this all wrong. However, because we only see this 2 times a year I agree that it will be difficult for us to figure out and that will be where the game hinges.
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Not a nitpick at all. You pointed out basic basketball. The 1-3-1 is beaten inside not outside. When the Gophers have struggled against it in the past it has been when the inside game has been weak. Not so this year. I think the 1-3-1 is something Rodney could thrive on with lobs and taking the baseline.

Tough game tonight. Yes. They all are. But the Gophers are a better team even without Al. There is no reason that anyone playing the precentages should pick against the Gophers.
 

Holy Man said:
Not a nitpick at all. You pointed out basic basketball. The 1-3-1 is beaten inside not outside. When the Gophers have struggled against it in the past it has been when the inside game has been weak. Not so this year. I think the 1-3-1 is something Rodney could thrive on with lobs and taking the baseline.
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Agree. Not a nitpick to point out that a primary premise to why the Gophers could be upset is just plain wrong. He could be right about the impact of missing Nolen, but if any other guard is able to successfully penetrate the zone we should be fine.
 

There are several "experts" that are picking NU as well, including myron and contributing writers for this site (for whatever its worth). It's my personal opinion and I shouldn't get ridiculed for it and told I'm some d-bag who always got predictions wrong. I don't know where this notion came from that I'm negative either. no...I don't always drink the gopher kool paid but I certainly root for Minnesota.
 

MaroonGopher said:
There are several "experts" that are picking NU as well, including myron and contributing writers for this site (for whatever its worth). It's my personal opinion and I shouldn't get ridiculed for it and told I'm some d-bag who always got predictions wrong. I don't know where this notion came from that I'm negative either. no...I don't always drink the gopher kool paid but I certainly root for Minnesota.
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You're getting ripped because the analysis you provided as backup is nonsense. The 1-3-1 zone begs teams to launch from deep, yet you claim that the reason UM will lose is because they can't "shoot our way out of the zone".

Have an idea about basketball and provide some real analysis, and maybe people won't trash your posts as simply being negative.

EDIT - It also doesn't help that you refer to Myron as an expert. EGADS! If he's an expert on college basketball I'm Bobby Knight.
 

This isn't a must-win game just because you say so. Obviously it's important, but what exactly makes it a must-win?

MaroonGopher said:
Looking through the Predict the Score thread on here, I noticed that 100 percent of people expect Minnesota to win tonight. Why? What makes anyone think the Wildcats can't win this game? This contest has all the perfect ingredients for an upset.

First, Northwestern can shoot the 3 better than anyone Minnesota will play this season. With Minnesota's best perimeter defender done for the season, the Cats should have little trouble making deep shots. Does anyone remember how Minny played without Nolen earlier this season? The Gophers simply couldn't stop any team from making the long ball

Second, their 1-3-1 zone. It has always caused problems for Minnesota. Without Nolen to navigate the trap, it's going to be just that much more difficult to find open shots. Minnesota is a poor 3-point shooting team, so it's not like we are going to be able to shoot our way out of the zone.

Third, Northwestern NEVER turns the ball over. If Minnesota falls behind, the crowd is going to get bored of the Cats' methodical offense. It's also going to become difficult to come back against a team that possesses the ball for so long on offense.

Fourth, John Shurna. I hate that the Big Ten's premier offensive threat looks like an ugly Division III small forward, but he's legit.

I am going to say it first, I believe Minnesota will lose this game. I LOVE THE GOPHERS AND IT'S BEEN A FUN SEASON THUS FAR. LET ME REPEAT SO I DON'T GET BLASTED: I LOVE THE GOPHERS AND IT'S BEEN A FUN SEASON THUS FAR, but I just have a bad feeling about this. Besides, it's a MUST WIN and I've come to expect the worst with this program.
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It doesn't take a homer to pick the Gophers over Northwestern, especially in the Barn. I think you're going out on a really thin limb if you pick NU in this one, especially given how poorly they played against the tougher teams in the league.
 

Monty519 said:
Maybe everyone on the GOPHER message board is a homer? I'll be the first to tell you that I am and I make judgments based on that fact.

That said, it's ridiculous to expect to lose this game when you're a top 20 team in the nation. That doesn't mean they won't lose or that NU has no shot, what I mean is that as fans of a ranked team, how can you expect to lose to Northwestern at home?? Like, honestly. I don't care what they do that gives us fits, this is a home game against Northwestern a team that just got toasted up by the Badgers, we should be expecting a win, with or without Al Nolen. Again, that doesn't mean they won't lose this game, I'd be lying if I said NU doesn't cause some alarm in this one, but no chance I'm going to come into this game expecting them to lose it.
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You think?
 

Yep, I think. Why would I EXPECT this team to lose this game? If things go as they should, we should win the game by 4-8 points. That's why they play the games though, so yes, Northwestern could easily come in and shoot themselves to a victory. Wouldn't shock me at all. But I'm not expecting it to happen.
 

So you're predicting a LOSS to a team that just lost to Wisconsin 78-46 on their home court? Hmm, wonder why no Gopher fans (no surprise the badgerman picked Northwestern) share your opinion. Can Minnesota lose? Of course. Is it more likely than not that the Gophers will win? Of course.

Can the Gophers handle the ball effectively without Nolen? Can someone step up and provide some scoring on the perimeter?
 

I'm wary of this game for the simple fact that it always seems like bad news to play a team after they have been thoroughly embarrassed in their last game. Just like it's good to play a team after they shoot lights out and have the game of their lives or upset a top ten team. Everything seems to balance out with teams that are in the large middle tier of college hoops.

I doubt the same Northwestern team that looked absolutely horrific against Wisconsin shows up tonight.

And then we get to play a Purdue team that just got their lunch handed to team on ESPN.

So I understand the OP's nervousness. We see stretches during games where the Gophers look great....and then there are the lulls, the scoring droughts.
 

GoGoGophers said:
You'Arere getting ripped because the analysis you provided as backup is nonsense. The 1-3-1 zone begs teams to launch from deep, yet you claim that the reason UM will lose is because they can't "shoot our way out of the zone".

Have an idea about basketball and provide some real analysis, and maybe people won't trash your posts as simply being negative.

EDIT - It also doesn't help that you refer to Myron as an expert. EGADS! If he's an expert on college basketball I'm Bobby Knight.
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I said "experts" not experts...there is a difference.
 

EG#9 said:
So you're predicting a LOSS to a team that just lost to Wisconsin 78-46 on their home court? Hmm, wonder why no Gopher fans (no surprise the badgerman picked Northwestern) share your opinion. Can Minnesota lose? Of course. Is it more likely than not that the Gophers will win? Of course.

Can the Gophers handle the ball effectively without Nolen? Can someone step up and provide some scoring on the perimeter?
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Fair points. I think the Gophers should win, I just have to see the frosh pull it together for a whole game. I just have doubts about those two.

ETA - I also thought the game was @ NW...if I could go back I would pick MN...but my bad, I'll live with my poor attention to detail.
 


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