Is northwestern a must win game?

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Rosemountian

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With Nolen out and wins potentially at a premium, is northwestern a must win game. I think if the gophers want to be a lock and not a bubble team. It is.
 

No. Not must win at all.

Would be a good win to get, and an expected one, but definitely not a "must win" at this point.
 

I think it's pretty close. There won't be as many games down the stretch that we can expect to win easily. Every one is going to be a dogfight/potential loss, depending on how our freshmen guards play. We need to win the games like these.
 

Yes, unless...

Yes, Wednesday, at home is a must win, unless you are happy with 9-9 or 10-8 and stuck on that bubble again.

IMHO the Gophers must hold home court against the likes of NW.
 

Every game is a "must win" at this point. One at a time.

Go Gophers!!!
 



Rosemountian said:
With Nolen out and wins potentially at a premium, is northwestern a must win game. I think if the gophers want to be a lock and not a bubble team. It is.
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Yes. If we can't beat a team that just lost by 32 on their home court to Wisky- we've got issues for the rest of the season. We should win this game and we need to. Winning this game sets up a pretty clean path to 10-8 even without Nolen and that's good enough for NCAA lock this year.
 

With the news of Nolen, I'm gonna have to get on board with the "must-win" crowd on this one. You gotta beat Northwestern at home, you just gotta.
 

I have to say Yes . 2 days ago, I felt we had to win either the NW or Michigan game. So if we lost to Michigan it became must-win. However, I now see almost no chance of us winning @Purdue, or home with OSU, Illinois or MSU. Therefore, if we are even to get to 10 BT wins, we will have to win 6 of 7 of PSU, NW, Michigan, @PSU, @NW, @IND and @IA. That's going to be very difficult and we basically have to win the 3 home games.
 



When I hear "must win," it literally means MUST WIN, as in, without winning the game, we won't make the NCAA tourney.

If the sky falls, and we somehow lose to NW, we still have a chance at getting in the NCAA Tourney, a pretty good chance. Granted, I think a loss would be terrible, and hurt our chances, but calling it a MUST WIN at this point is premature IMO.
 

They absolutely cannot lose to Northwestern at home. With Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois at home they have to leave room for a loss to at least one of those teams.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
When I hear "must win," it literally means MUST WIN, as in, without winning the game, we won't make the NCAA tourney.

If the sky falls, and we somehow lose to NW, we still have a chance at getting in the NCAA Tourney, a pretty good chance. Granted, I think a loss would be terrible, and hurt our chances, but calling it a MUST WIN at this point is premature IMO.
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I don't think you can underestimate what a blow it would to the team's mental state to lose on Wednesday. You find out Nolen is out for the year. You lose at home to a team that just got thrashed on thier home court by 30, and then you go to Purdue and probably get pounded? How do we recover from that? Tubby worked a miracle last year, but that would be tough to pull off for anyone.
 

bga1 said:
Yes. If we can't beat a team that just lost by 32 on their home court to Wisky- we've got issues for the rest of the season. We should win this game and we need to. Winning this game sets up a pretty clean path to 10-8 even without Nolen and that's good enough for NCAA lock this year.
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+1
when a team looks as bad as Northwestern did yesterday, it becomes a must win game for every team they face the rest of the year. If we can figure out the 1-3-1 zone even a little bit we should dominate inside. The Badgers don't even try to play inside very often and they dominated the inside play against Northwestern. And a freshman guard had a triple double for the Badgers against them, so I think it is a must win
 



I understand the sentiment that we have been calling the past few games all "must win." The phrase gets devalued when it is used so often, but in this case I do believe it applies. It will be much more difficult to win our remaining games against ranked opponents without Nolen, so we need to lock in the "easy" one to get our record to where it needs to be at the end of the season.
 

I think you have to define "must win." Let's assume everyone means this to be what gets the Gophers to the NCAA tournament.

SS has been on the "10-8 BT record should get us to the NCAA Tournament" bandwagon. If accurate this means the Gophers need to get 6 more wins in BT play. If you take a look at the schedule:

NW
@ Purdue
@ Indiana
OSU
ILL
@ Iowa
@ PSU
MSU
Mich
@NW
PSU

"Probably not going to win" games:
@Purdue
OSU

This means the Gophers need to win 6 out of the other 9 games remaining. When you consider that @NW, @PSU, MSU, and ILL are all more difficult games than the one on Wednesday, I would put the game against NW in the "must win category." Obviously a loss doesn't mean the end of the season - it just makes the task more difficult in that they have to win at least two more difficult games than the one on Wednesday on the schedule somewhere down the road to get to those 10 wins.
 

All things considered, I'd call this a must win. Doubly important because we can put a huge dent in any chances Northwestern has to reach the NCAA. Somehow we have to hold the fort until/if Al gets back.

10-8 most certainly will get the Gophers into the tournament, perhaps even 9-9. Al or no Al, I'm shooting for 10-8.
 

Just making the ncaa tourney is NOT that big a deal...

If everyone has already given up the possibility of winning the Big Ten Title and just wants to settle for some middle of the road invitation to the ncaa tourney, I'd have to say "what's it all about?????"

A Big Ten team had BETTER win every Big Ten game they should be considered to have a legitimate chance at winning. IF you let some team come in a beat you on your home court you have GOT to make up for that home loss with as many road wins as you can beg, borrow or steal. And, if you can't beat teams # 4 through 11 in the Big Ten at home AND on the road, you will NOT be contending for a Big Ten Championship. In January, IF you are not hoping to contend for a Big Ten Championship, and are already thinking it would be ok just not to be a bubble team, that is pretty sad.

I think it is a horrible "cop-out" to be content with "playing for an invitation to the ncaa tourney" on January 24th with as much of the Big Ten Season left. The TOP SPOT in the Big Ten is what I wish this team had the courage to be playing for on January 24, 2011. Otherwise, they are just taking the "easier, softer way out..."
 

Northwestern looks like the Northwestern of old from the 70's and 80's when we could trot out our backups and get a double digit win. Anybody see how bad they looked at home vs Wisconsin. I know Wisconsin is good, but c'mon! The Wildcats look very pedestrian once again.

Gophers should win with anybody on our roster.
 

Moses87 said:
Northwestern looks like the Northwestern of old from the 70's and 80's when we could trot out our backups and get a double digit win. Anybody see how bad they looked at home vs Wisconsin. I know Wisconsin is good, but c'mon! The Wildcats look very pedestrian once again.

Gophers should win with anybody on our roster.
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They are absolutely not the Wildcats of the 70's and 80's. If the only game you watched was this season was against UW, I can understand that thought, but they are capable of scoring points in bunches with multiple 3pt threats.

With that said, this is a should win for the Gophers at home. Defensively, on the boards, and in the paint, NU is terrible. Pound it inside, clean up the glass, and defend the perimeter, the Gopher's should win. But they are not a pushover.
 

SelectionSunday said:
All things considered, I'd call this a must win. Doubly important because we can put a huge dent in any chances Northwestern has to reach the NCAA. Somehow we have to hold the fort until/if Al gets back.

10-8 most certainly will get the Gophers into the tournament, perhaps even 9-9. Al or no Al, I'm shooting for 10-8.
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If Al comes back, will the Selection Committee give us any break for games lost while he was out, as they sometimes do, or are we/Al not 'big time' enough for that treatment?
 

Yes, the Selection Committee considers injuries. However, the Gophers need to win enough games down the stretch to ensure they're a viable at-large option. One way or another, they'll have to prove they can win games without Al.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yes, the Selection Committee considers injuries. However, the Gophers need to win enough games down the stretch to ensure they're a viable at-large option. One way or another, they'll have to prove they can win games without Al.
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Without a doubt. I'm just wondering if we can feel a bit better about our chances if we're say 9-9 then we might otherwise.
 

howeda7 said:
Without a doubt. I'm just wondering if we can feel a bit better about our chances if we're say 9-9 then we might otherwise.
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I think that if we go 9-9 and Al doesn't come back, but would be back for the NCAA tourney, they would take that into account. If Al is not going to come back at all, I don't think they give you that benefit of the doubt. I could be wrong though.
 

10-8 would not be on the bubble. 9-9 would probably only be bubble if we didn't win any BTT games. There's no such thing as a must-win game at this point in the year. Each year people post how almost every game is a must-win game after we've lost a few. The loss of Nolen hurts us more than probably any other player (a Hoffarber injury would be pretty similar), but I don't think we'll have trouble making the tournament. If Nolen can't come back or isn't close to form, winning a tournament game may be pretty tough, however.

Section201 said:
Yes, Wednesday, at home is a must win, unless you are happy with 9-9 or 10-8 and stuck on that bubble again.

IMHO the Gophers must hold home court against the likes of NW.
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I'm glad I'm not the only one. Last year there must have been about 5 "must-win" games that we lost. I'll be anticipating the "NIT-bound" threads after losses in "must-win" games.

ShowinGoldyLove said:
When I hear "must win," it literally means MUST WIN, as in, without winning the game, we won't make the NCAA tourney.

If the sky falls, and we somehow lose to NW, we still have a chance at getting in the NCAA Tourney, a pretty good chance. Granted, I think a loss would be terrible, and hurt our chances, but calling it a MUST WIN at this point is premature IMO.
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Defense

According ot KenPom, Al's presence made no difference. He shows the problem with evaluating a team without actually seeing them play.

We need to take this game for two reasons. As others have said, many games got considerably tougher with the loss of Al. Second, they need to prove to themselves they win without Al. The sooner they do that the better.

My immediate concern is who guards Juice Thompson on Wendnesday night. The guy can light it up when he is on and takeover a game. While there is concern about Chip's ballhandling skills, I think if he can replace Al's D, he makes a significant contribution the rest of the year. I don't have as much confidence in Mav replacing the defense.
 

I think we will see more 2-3 zone post injury. Not only because Nolen was the stopper, but also to conserve a little energy.
I'd like to see a little of Mbakwe in the middle of the 2-3 when he is paired with Ralph.
 

Will you calm down man....

WOW... I guess I'm just shocked at everyone's apathy on this board with Al being out. It's a blow... but my goodness to think that we'll lose to Northwestern at the barn is bordering on preposterous. I know they've had some good outings, but if we drop one to this team... the sky is falling. It won't happen. My only concern is how our young freshmen will handle the on ball inherent pressure from the 1-3-1 that they play. This defense is all about turnovers and requires good guard play. The only way this game is close is if freshman = turnovers. Aside from this... this game looks like much more of a lock than going into Ann Arbor.

Calmer than you are.
 

Madman said:
WOW... I guess I'm just shocked at everyone's apathy on this board with Al being out. It's a blow... but my goodness to think that we'll lose to Northwestern at the barn is bordering on preposterous. I know they've had some good outings, but if we drop one to this team... the sky is falling. It won't happen. My only concern is how our young freshmen will handle the on ball inherent pressure from the 1-3-1 that they play. This defense is all about turnovers and requires good guard play. The only way this game is close is if freshman = turnovers. Aside from this... this game looks like much more of a lock than going into Ann Arbor.

Calmer than you are.
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Who is this directed at? I don't think anyone has been panicking.
 


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