Pregame Thoughts: at Michigan 1/22/11

Gopher Warrior said:

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1294

"After a five day break from competition, the #15/#19 Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-4, 3-3) travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines (11-8, 1-5) at Crisler Arena. Game time is set for 6:01pm CT this Saturday, January 22, 2011, and will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network. Charissa Thompson will be on the sidelines during the game and in my dreams later Saturday night...................."

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- Shooting & tempo: they shoot a ton of three-pointers - 44% 3FG/FG. As discussed later in the Players section, they have a number of willing shooters although the team’s 3FG% is just 33.2. Michigan plays at a very slow pace, except for the occasional ugly 24-foot bomb attempt from Hardaway Jr. with 32 seconds still on the shot clock.

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- Turnovers: They do not turn the ball over – 17.3% TORate (Minnesota is at 20.2%, which is still below D1 average). At the same time, Michigan is not a team that creates a lot of havoc on defense (19.0% opponent TORate). With the slower pace, cherishing possessions becomes even more important for Minnesota.

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- Rebounding: OR% of 28.7 is poor and this is not a team that will crash the boards. With the volume of threes shot by Michigan, Minnesota should try to run in transition after long rebounds, which may result in an open man (i.e. Hoffarber) with a great chance to convert a quick three.
The Wolverines have done a good job, especially with their lack of inside presence, on the defensive boards. Their opponents are bringing down just 28.3% of their misses and there has been only one game all year when the opposition has had an OR% of more than 35%. This is where Minnesota should let them know how it’s done. The Gophers’ OR% is 39.1% for the year and there have been only 5 games where that percentage was lower than 35%.

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- Free throws: Michigan has some fantastic free throw shooters, but they are unable to get to the line (27.3% FTRate is about as low as it gets). The kids in maize and blue have been successful in keeping the other team off the line (30.3%), but I expect Minnesota (47.7%) to get plenty of charity stripe attempts.

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Unless Michigan is shooting lights out and can keep Minnesota off the offensive boards and free throw line, I see the Gophers earning their first conference road win of the year. My pick: Gophers by 4.

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Section201 said:

Michigan is out rebounded 32-11 and only loses by 5. That seems weird to me.

11 rebounds!

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/boxscore?gid=201101220357

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Section201 said:

Michigan is out rebounded 32-11 and only loses by 5. That seems weird to me.

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Gopher Warrior said:

Yeah.. but, they shot (and missed) a lot more than us. The turnovers were ridiculous on our part. That crap must be fixed if this team is going to sneak into a 3rd or 4th place Big Ten finish.

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