Gopher/Purdue thoughts

Here are some thoughts on tonight’s game from a Purdue fan’s perspective. As mentioned, life on the road in the Big Ten is a b!tch and the Barn is a tough place to win – albeit not nearly as tough as it used to be. In fact, there isn’t a single player on the Purdue roster that has lost at Williams Arena. Purdue is playing as well as any team in the country right now with 10 straight wins - 9 of them coming by double digits including thrashings of Michigan and Penn St. on the road – something other ranked teams have failed to do recently. Dating back to last season, Purdue has won 9 consecutive true road games including wins at OSU, MSU, and of course last year’s unforgettable game at the Barn. Yes, half of those 9 straight true road wins came with a healthy Robbie Hummel but he’s been out for almost a year now and Purdue has moved on. I wonder how everyone would perceive Purdue had Hummel just graduated instead of suffering back to back season ending injuries? A pair of potential All-Americans and an underrated head coach that teaches lock down defense is still a formula for success regardless of the supporting cast. I’m actually glad Mbakwe is playing tonight because I want to see the Boilers get Minnesota’s best shot and see how they fare against a team with an interior presence. That of course is Purdue glaring weakness. The Boilers have some big bodies on the roster but the talent level isn’t where it needs to be. Obviously JuJuan Johnson needs no introduction but after him the only serviceable big is Freshman Travis Carroll who actually has played decent of late. He’s not going to score but he gets rebounds and has nice little jumper from 15 feet that Mbakwe or Williams needs to be able to defend. Patrick Bade and Sandi Marcius (Mar-chooch) have Big Ten type bodies but will likely not see the court tonight unless there’s some serious foul trouble or the “hack a Mbakwe” strategy comes into play late in the game. The other key tonight will be guard pressure. Purdue has 2 of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson. Al Nolen is very good as well so we could see a defensive clinic tonight. I would assume Hoffarber and Ryne Smith will be matched up - both are capable of scorching the nets if they find a groove and I think Williams and E’Twaun Moore will square off.

In the end, my gut tells me the Gophers will win tonight. Purdue has been playing very well lately, but they’re due for an off night and they’re playing a desperate team on the road. The Boilers are not healthy as Barlow and D.J. Byrd are nursing ankle and shoulder injuries respectively and PG John Hart (3rd leading scorer at the time of his injury) has been out since early December with a foot injury. As for me, due to work obligations and a 6:00pm start, I can’t make the game – but that’s probably a good thing since I was in the building both times when Hummel tore his ACL and I’m beginning to think I’m a jinx.

Vegas likes Purdue in this one but Minnesota needs it far more.

Gophers 65-60

Good thoughts. Hopefully Kelsey, DJ, and Carroll (I assume) can play good D on Mbakwe.

You were at the practice when Rob tore his ACL?

rcpratt said:

Good thoughts. Hopefully Kelsey, DJ, and Carroll (I assume) can play good D on Mbakwe.

You were at the practice when Rob tore his ACL?

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I chose my words carefully. I was "in the building". He tore his ACL the 2nd time the same weekend of the Minnesota/Purdue football game and I was in town for the game and visiting some old friends/colleagues in Mackey when someone came in the room and told us Hummel just went down at practice.

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:

I would assume Hoffarber and Ryne Smith will be matched up

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God, I really hope this turns out to be true.

josh087 said:

God, I really hope this turns out to be true.

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I don't see any other way it could turn out. Who else would either guy guard?

josh087 said:

God, I really hope this turns out to be true.

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Ryne has actually become a pretty good defender this year. And I'm sure they'll be matched up.

josh087 said:

God, I really hope this turns out to be true.

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+1.

If the we can't make the 3s we still could win.
If we can't defend the 3 we will lose. Pretty simple.

tjgopher said:

I don't see any other way it could turn out. Who else would either guy guard?

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+1

Hoffarber still needs to guard Smith and according to many on this board Hoffarber is a below avergage defender. Smith is above average.

Smith > Hoffarber defensively
Hoffarber > Smith offensively

It's a wash although Smith is averaging nearly 20 ppg through the first 4 Big Ten games.

josh087 said:

God, I really hope this turns out to be true.

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You clearly don't know anything about Purdue basketball - which is fine, don't get me wrong - but as a follower of both teams you're statement (or intent) couldn't be more wrong.

Either player could blow up tonight and prove one of us wrong but on paper this is a fairly good match-up.

It's the same as it's been all year. If they can avoid these 5-10 minute lapses in 1) defensive effort & intensity and 2) offensive flow, they're plenty good enough to win this game.

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:

You clearly don't know anything about Purdue basketball - which is fine, don't get me wrong - but as a follower of both teams you're statement (or intent) couldn't be more wrong.

Either player could blow up tonight and prove one of us wrong but on paper this is a fairly good match-up.

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I've watched 10 of Purdue's games this year, and have watched every BT conference game from every BT team over the last two-plus years, so to say I know nothing about Purdue basketball is laughable at best.

I am fully aware that Ryne Smith is shooting 66% on threes in BT play and over 50% for the year. While he might have improved as a defender (which has come with the confidence of more playing time and his exploits on offense), I'd still rather have him guarding Blake than 6'5" Barlow (even if nicked up), the lanky Moore, or Jackson, who will be the quickest player on the whole court. Certainly it is a risk having Blake guard the best three point shooter you guys have, but I'll take my chances considering the game is at Williams Arena. It is almost irrelevant who is "guarding" Ryne Smith anyway - you could put the best defender in the history of basketball on Ryne Smith, but if he was playing the ball line defense of Tubby Smith he would flash down to the post to double-team JaJuan Johnson resulting in opportunities from the perimeter anyway.

I'm not saying just by having this matchup Blake is going to go off for 7-threes, but there are far worse matchups Purdue could throw Blake's way than having Smith be his primary defender. Even if both guys hit a bunch of threes and the matchup is even, I think it is far more important for the Gophers to get contributions from Hoffarber than it is for Purdue to get points from Smith.

josh087 said:

I've watched every BT conference game from every BT team over the last two-plus years.

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Wow. That's a lot of basketball. Your DVR must get a heavy workout.

I wish I had that kind of free time on my hands

josh087 said:

I've watched 10 of Purdue's games this year, and have watched every BT conference game from every BT team over the last two-plus years, so to say I know nothing about Purdue basketball is laughable at best.

I am fully aware that Ryne Smith is shooting 66% on threes in BT play and over 50% for the year. While he might have improved as a defender (which has come with the confidence of more playing time and his exploits on offense), I'd still rather have him guarding Blake than 6'5" Barlow (even if nicked up), the lanky Moore, or Jackson, who will be the quickest player on the whole court. Certainly it is a risk having Blake guard the best three point shooter you guys have, but I'll take my chances considering the game is at Williams Arena. It is almost irrelevant who is "guarding" Ryne Smith anyway - you could put the best defender in the history of basketball on Ryne Smith, but if he was playing the ball line defense of Tubby Smith he would flash down to the post to double-team JaJuan Johnson resulting in opportunities from the perimeter anyway.

I'm not saying just by having this matchup Blake is going to go off for 7-threes, but there are far worse matchups Purdue could throw Blake's way than having Smith be his primary defender. Even if both guys hit a bunch of threes and the matchup is even, I think it is far more important for the Gophers to get contributions from Hoffarber than it is for Purdue to get points from Smith.

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I agree that Hoffarber is more important to Minnesota's offense. That's a given.

Who knows what will actually happen throughout the course of the game with substitutions but Barlow doesn't start so I would assume the following match-ups from the opening tip.

Jackson/Nolen
Moore/Williams
Smith/Hoffarber
Byrd/Iverson GULP
Johnson/Sampson

When Mbakwe comes into the game may God have mercy on our souls. Probably a mixed bag of Byrd, Barlow, Carroll, Marcius, Steve Scheffler, Brad Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Joe Barry Carroll.

tjgopher said:

Wow. That's a lot of basketball. Your DVR must get a heavy workout.

I wish I had that kind of free time on my hands

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It is. This time of year there are usually two games recording at once Monday-Thursday nights and on more than that on Saturdays. I am usually busy on half of the nights and all day Saturday so I have to squeeze in all the games when I get home. DVR is a great thing - I can usually watch a game in about an hour or maybe a little more depending how good/close the game is. My wife doesn't like the fact that she can never use the TV but she is understanding, so it helps to have her and also have no kids. It also helps that all my friends know never to reveal any scores to me until the day after. The other tricky thing is that you have to avoid the ESPN updates during the game and I also will cover up "the bottom line" on my TV so games happening concurrently don't get revealed.

It is a lot to go through but I love my college sports.

As the Gophers seem to be foul creating machines who does Purdue have to replace Johnson and Moore should they get in foul trouble?

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:

I agree that Hoffarber is more important to Minnesota's offense. That's a given.

Who knows what will actually happen throughout the course of the game with substitutions but Barlow doesn't start so I would assume the following match-ups from the opening tip.

Jackson/Nolen
Moore/Williams
Smith/Hoffarber
Byrd/Iverson GULP
Johnson/Sampson

When Mbakwe comes into the game may God have mercy on our souls. Probably a mixed bag of Byrd, Barlow, Carroll, Marcius, Steve Scheffler, Brad Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Joe Barry Carroll.

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Byrd/Iverson is the one matchup I would be concerned with on your end as well.

As with most Gopher games this year, the game is probably going to come down to three point shooting. We are going to double JaJuan every time he touches the ball in the post and doesn't spin toward the baseline, so he is either going to be forced to take tough shots or kick it out. The nice thing for us is that similar to Nolen, Lewis Jackson is not much of an outside threat. If Smith/Barlow/Moore make 1/3 of their outside shots, or if Johnson faces up and can score from the outside or hits those tough inside shots, Purdue will win. Minnesota MUST get outside scoring from somewhere or else Purdue can just pack it in. Since the game is at home, if Mav/Hollins/Williams/Nolen can just combine to hit 3 or 4 total of those "unexpected" threes in addition to a few from Blake, the Gophers have a great chance to win.

Reserve said:

As the Gophers seem to be foul creating machines who does Purdue have to replace Johnson and Moore should they get in foul trouble?

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Oh, we've got two backup All-Americans on the bench, of course.

Reserve said:

As the Gophers seem to be foul creating machines who does Purdue have to replace Johnson and Moore should they get in foul trouble?

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D.J. Byrd, Patrick Bade and Travis Carroll down low are the guys who would see increased minutes. Byrd is probably the best of the bunch but obviously a huge step down from an all-american. Terone Johnson and Kelsey Barlow would likely get Moore's minutes depending on health issues. It would be huge if we could get one of them with 2 quickies in the first half.

I expect Marcius will come off the bench before Bade. He's bad, but more of a banger. And Bade is even worse, somehow.

Patrick Bade is a perfect example of how little the Rivals or Scout * system means nothing.

The thing I think you've got to be concerned about if you're Purdue is you've played four Big Ten teams, but none of them have had the size of Minnesota, a team that potentially could exploit their opponent having an undersized frontcourt. Michigan, NW, Iowa and PSU are certainly teams that CAN'T exploit an opponent having an undersized frontcourt because their own frontcourts are undersized. This is the first BT foe the Boilers have faced with a good frontcourt, arguably the best frontcourt the Boilers have faced all season. It will be interesting to see if Purdue will be able to rebound and defend the paint adequately against the Gophers - if Sampson and Iverson combine for 24 & 11 like they did in the BTT last year, then you've got to like Minnesota's chances. Gophs' frontcourt is the key to them winning this game, and of course they have to find a way to shut down Smith, which I don't think is as hard as some of the other BT teams are making it look - just don't let him get wide open for catch & shoot situations.

OSUfan said:

The thing I think you've got to be concerned about if you're Purdue is you've played four Big Ten teams, but none of them have had the size of Minnesota, a team that potentially could exploit their opponent having an undersized frontcourt. Michigan, NW, Iowa and PSU are certainly teams that CAN'T exploit an opponent having an undersized frontcourt because their own frontcourts are undersized. This is the first BT foe the Boilers have faced with a good frontcourt, arguably the best frontcourt the Boilers have faced all season. It will be interesting to see if Purdue will be able to rebound and defend the paint adequately against the Gophers - if Sampson and Iverson combine for 24 & 11 like they did in the BTT last year, then you've got to like Minnesota's chances. Gophs' frontcourt is the key to them winning this game, and of course they have to find a way to shut down Smith, which I don't think is as hard as some of the other BT teams are making it look - just don't let him get wide open for catch & shoot situations.

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We keep hearing about Minnesota's frontcourt (a legitimate concern obviously) but nobody talks about the backcourt match-ups where Purdue has just as lopsided of an advantage.

By the way - How was Penn State able to handle MSU and Illinois' frontcourt but not Purdue?

I know the answer, but I'm just proving a point that on paper some match-ups aren't favorable but you still need to execute and put the ball in the basket.

I think this is the toughest matchup for the Gophers. They either have to keep up offensively or put the clamps on Purdue defensively. Purdue has the best pure offensive performers in the league. If you let them get comfortable it is going to be tough.

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:

We keep hearing about Minnesota's frontcourt (a legitimate concern obviously) but nobody talks about the backcourt match-ups where Purdue has just as lopsided of an advantage.

By the way - How was Penn State able to handle MSU and Illinois' frontcourt but not Purdue?

I know the answer, but I'm just proving a point that on paper some match-ups aren't favorable but you still need to execute and put the ball in the basket.

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I don't think either has a "lopsided" advantage. Purdue has Johnson and not much else. MN has Trevor and not much else (The other two are size, yes, but they aren't likely to have a HUGE effect on the game)

As far as guard play, MN has a great defensive PG in Al Nolen and shooter in Blake Hoffarber.

I don't see either team dominating either aspect, but if one does that'd be the difference. I am cheering for MN, and only picking them because we are at home. I am expecting a great game all around, definitley not a blow out, just an evenly matched solid game.

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:

We keep hearing about Minnesota's frontcourt (a legitimate concern obviously) but nobody talks about the backcourt match-ups where Purdue has just as lopsided of an advantage.

By the way - How was Penn State able to handle MSU and Illinois' frontcourt but not Purdue?

I know the answer, but I'm just proving a point that on paper some match-ups aren't favorable but you still need to execute and put the ball in the basket.

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Purdue had the same players when the teams played in the Big Ten tourney last year - as a Purdue fan, you've got to be concerned that this team is going into a game with the Gophers once again where you have a less than ideal frontcourt situation and are facing a Minnesota team that's really hungry for a big win. When you've got a team with a great backcourt but a patchwork frontcourt, you can dominate the lesser teams and your makeshift frontcourt might not look like a flaw. But when you play a team with great size and strength in the frontcourt, you're going to struggle in a way that seems inconsistent based on how you played against some other teams. The reality is Purdue's frontcourt is flawed, it's not an obvious flaw based on the teams they've played lately, but the increase in talent of the opposition is something that will make it show. Purdue has to shoot the ball really well in order to win this game.

jovs said:

I think this is the toughest matchup for the Gophers. They either have to keep up offensively or put the clamps on Purdue defensively. Purdue has the best pure offensive performers in the league. If you let them get comfortable it is going to be tough.

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Disagree. We struggle against really good offenses with Big men who can shoot threes because it is difficult for us to keep pace scoring-wise and guard the perimeter. Purdue, while ranked in the top 25 in offensive efficiency, doesn't quite have the versatile big men that give us problems.

Illinois/Wisconsin/Northwestern presents the toughest matchup for us. Having our bigs move out in space to guard Davis/Tisdale, Nankevil/Leuer, or Shurna/Murkovic is a recipe for disaster. Murkovic may not be a great shooter but you have to get out on him, as well as Cobb or Crawford, who will also rotate down low depending on who is in the game.

All three of these teams are ranked ahead of Purdue offensive efficiency in the country (Wisconsin #7, Northwestern #11, Illinois #21) AND have the versatile big men that pose us problems.

I'm throwing out Ohio State because they present a tough matchup for anyone since they are just plain good.

Guard matchups/Will Hoffarber get shots?

scher215 said:

I don't think either has a "lopsided" advantage. Purdue has Johnson and not much else. MN has Trevor and not much else (The other two are size, yes, but they aren't likely to have a HUGE effect on the game)

As far as guard play, MN has a great defensive PG in Al Nolen and shooter in Blake Hoffarber.

I don't see either team dominating either aspect, but if one does that'd be the difference. I am cheering for MN, and only picking them because we are at home. I am expecting a great game all around, definitley not a blow out, just an evenly matched solid game.

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Hoffarber is a great shooter, but he never gets many against Purdue. In his career, he's gone 1-4, 1-4, 1-4, 2-5 and 1-4. That's damned consistent, but not in a good way.

He won't be seeing Kramer, but Moore is an underrated defender.

I would guess you have to put Nolan on Moore, because no way BH can hang with him.

The matchup dilemmas make this one of the most interesting games in the B10 season.

mmtja5 said:

Hoffarber is a great shooter, but he never gets many against Purdue. In his career, he's gone 1-4, 1-4, 1-4, 2-5 and 1-4. That's damned consistent, but not in a good way.

He won't be seeing Kramer, but Moore is an underrated defender.

I would guess you have to put Nolan on Moore, because no way BH can hang with him.

The matchup dilemmas make this one of the most interesting games in the B10 season.

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mmtja...you must be Knucklehead based on this post.

OSUfan said:

Purdue had the same players when the teams played in the Big Ten tourney last year - as a Purdue fan, you've got to be concerned that this team is going into a game with the Gophers once again where you have a less than ideal frontcourt situation and are facing a Minnesota team that's really hungry for a big win. When you've got a team with a great backcourt but a patchwork frontcourt, you can dominate the lesser teams and your makeshift frontcourt might not look like a flaw. But when you play a team with great size and strength in the frontcourt, you're going to struggle in a way that seems inconsistent based on how you played against some other teams. The reality is Purdue's frontcourt is flawed, it's not an obvious flaw based on the teams they've played lately, but the increase in talent of the opposition is something that will make it show. Purdue has to shoot the ball really well in order to win this game.

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I'll say it again. Match-ups don't always look good on paper but you still need to execute. Purdue destroyed Michigan in Ann Arbor yet the Buckeyes narrowly escaped AA with a win last night. Does that mean Purdue is THAT much better than OSU? Heck no, but on paper OSU should've also destroyed scUM but they didn't. Purdue makes up for their "patchwork frontcourt" by pressuring the hell out of the guards and forcing turnovers. They don't necessarily need to shoot well, they just need to limit their own TO's and not get JJ into foul trouble. The magic number for the Gophers tonight is 70. They hit 70 points and they'll likely win.