Gopher Warrior
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- Dec 15, 2009
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Twitter: bigjaybee
Note: Some of the information below may or may not be factual and I reserve to the right to drastically change my thoughts and/or any of the numbers for any reason.
#14/#13 Minnesota @ NR/#24 uw-madison, December 28, 2010
It’s been an exciting past ten days for uw-madison fans. The Public Ivy wrapped up another successful semester of preparing its youth for grown-up life. Time and time again I am impressed when I meet uw-madison grads while they are working in the real world. Whether it’s Joe (uw-madison ’98), the extraordinarily efficient check-out cashier at the grocery store, Jackie (uw-madison ’04), the always spunky barista who remembers my order at the coffee shop every single time, or Tim (uw-madison ’94), who has a certain ‘flair’ that seems to enable him to pick out the perfect bouquet of flowers every time I need help figuring out what to give a gal that I’m taking out on a date… it’s always the same – these folks are great at what they do. It’s no wonder Tim was promoted to morning shift co-manager this summer.
Not only are final exams now complete, but the badger faithful have been celebrating a big national championship thanks to their esteemed alumnus Booker Stanley. Sister school uw-whitewater captured another D3 football crown thanks in no small part to the contribution of this fine badger. A week of celebration by athletic director Barry Alvarez was topped off by a wonderful Christmas dinner on Saturday. I understand his son Chad cooked the bird.
Now, however, it’s back to business. That means uw-madison (10-2, NR AP/#24 Coaches) is getting ready to play host to the Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-1, #14/#13) at the Kohl Center, which is part athletic facility, part nursing home. Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm CT on Tuesday, December 28, 2010 [ESPN2]. We know our Gophers (although it’s important to note that Mo Walker is out for the game and Trevor Mbakwe, bothered recently by illness, is expected to be ready to go), so let’s spend a little time on uw-madison.
The Team
Their tempo is brutally slow, as always, but again they are extremely efficient. The Gophers have played only one game this year where the tempo dropped below 66 (West Virginia – 63), but this will surely be game number 2 of that variety. uw-madison’s losses have come at UNLV and against Notre Dame on a neutral court, while victories have included Boston College (neutral), vs. NC State and @Marquette.
The badgers have: Shot well (50.5 2FG% [D1 avg = 47.4%]; 38.2 3FG% [avg = 34.2]), taken care of the ball (TO% of 15.3%, one of the best in the nation… d1 avg is 21.0%.. to compare, the Gophers are at 20.7%; Becky's opponent steal % is just 7.8 - avg is 9.7%), done very well on the o-glass (39.8% OR% vs. D1 avg of 32.8% and slightly better than Gophers 39.4%).
The badgers have not: Gotten to the FT line (28.0% FTA/FGA.. D1 average is 37.9%.. the Gophers are at an impressive 49.6%), although when they get there they shoot it very well... bo's boys also have not turned the opposition over (19.9 TO% on defense… average is 21.0%... steal % of 7.0 is miserable (D1 avg = 9.7%)
Obviously getting certain badgers (i.e., Leuer and/or Taylor) into foul trouble could help us immensely… while we have been great at drawing fouls, the guys you’d most like to see hack us for uw-madison have been doing a solid job of not fouling most nights, even adjusting for their disgusting style of play (Leuer 2.2 Fouls called/40 mins, 2.4 for Jordan Taylor, 2.2 for Nankivil, etc)
Minnesota’s opponents have scored 38.5% of their points from behind the arc this season… average in D1 is about 27-28%. About 35% of uw-madison’s points have come from three-point land this season… they will be letting it fly from deep.
Obvious things we need to do:
+ Cherish our possessions / take care of the ball. The badgers have not stolen the ball much – keep it that way.
+ Rebound - not only has uw-madison been as strong, as or slightly better than us on the offensive glass, their defensive rebounding has been very good as well (much better than ours). Show we can be the better rebounding team.
+ Please!! Cut down on the uncontested shots when on defense – there are several guys that can knock it down if left open. Only three times this season has uw-madison shot less than 45% from the field – two of those were losses.
+ Don’t start off so miserably slow. Especially against this team. The badgers are shooting 43% from 2FG and 34% from 3FG in the first half this year.. but in the second half, those numbers jump to 48% and 43%.
A hot shooting night from a Gopher could be enough to push this one in our favor, but my pick is… uw-madison by 4.
With the tough start to the conference schedule Minnesota has, a victory here would be wonderful. But, we can withstand a loss. Like us, the beginning of uw-madison’s Big 10/11/12 season doesn’t start off pleasantly either – after Minnesota, games 2 and 4 are at Illinois and at Michigan State, respectively.
The Players
#30 Jon Leuer
Leuer is legit. The 6’10” senior from Minnesota has followed up a good junior campaign with 19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, and 1.8 bpg in about 32 mpg. This season, he’s shooting many more treys and converting them at a significantly higher rate as well. Last year 67% of his points were from 2FG range, with less than 15% coming from 3FG. This year he’s at 46% and 38%, respectively, and has drained 30 of 60 three-pointers (that is 50% for any uw-madison readers out there – and much better than his 39% and 30% during the past two seasons). Leuer’s shot attempts will reach double-figures and he will score in double figures. Only Jordan Taylor and Leuer average more than 8 ppg. Minimize good shots for him and then hope for the best. He’s shot less than 43.8% in a game only twice this year – both losses. Constantly triple team him with Ralph, Rodney and Mbakwe and we should be just fine. PS – Leuer will reach the 1,000 career point mark Tuesday (needs 7)
#11 Jordan Taylor
Another Minnesotan, Mr. Taylor is a product of the best high school in the state, likely the country, and perhaps the world. Physically he is a solid young man who stands about 6’1” and has become a steady, well rounded point guard. I wish Jordan the best even though his current school and team are insufferable. He’s playing big minutes (nearly 34 mpg) and has responded by chipping in 15.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, and 4.3 rpg (less than 1 spg, though). He’s not shooting a ton more from deep like Leuer is this season, but his 3FG% has seen nice improvement (41% this year… vs. 33% and 19% in his first two seasons). Another efficient guy, doesn’t turn the ball over, has become a leader.
#52 Keaton Nankivil
Hey look at this! A Madison Memorial kid that went to uw-madison. Keaton is a 6’8” senior forward who is nothing special, but he does have a nice wingspan. Just a guy. On any given night he is capable of reaching double digits in the scoring column, but doesn’t do so with regularity. In 22 mpg, he’s averaging 7.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 1.5 bpg. Does he get time on Mbakwe when the Gophers have the ball? Offensively he’s another efficient dork – doesn’t do so very often, but is capable of stepping back for three (10/24 for 42% this season, but 6 of those makes are from 2 games.. he’s just 4/16 or 25% in games other than those 2). It’s time to get physical with this kid, let him know we want the ball more. Keep him off the offensive glass, where he is very capable.
#31 Mike Bruesewitz (BREW-za-wits)
Is this kid joking with that hair? Unreal. Mike is a 6’6” kid who has gotten a lot of opportunity here in his sophomore year. Another one out of Minnesota, he’s clocking in about 23 mpg, while averaging 5.9 ppg and 3.6 rpg. Doesn’t get used a lot; he’s shot 27 times from 2FG (59%) and 24 times from 3FG (42%). Thinks he’s tougher than he is and a lesson should be taught by our bigs when he tries to stick his nose in the paint.
#21 Josh Gasser (GAH-sir)
6’3” freshman from Wisconsin… originally was looking at a 4 for 5 offer with year one being a walk-on year, but the poor criminal skills of a pair of uw-madison players last year worked in his favor. He’s playing a lot more than I thought he would – 26.6 mpg. But, when so much of your roster is non-descript, I suppose, ‘why not?’ Averaging 6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, he’s been another guy they can put on the floor that usually won’t royally screw up. His debut was a 21 point, 9 rebound performance (5/8 shooting including 2/4 3FG, 9/10 FT) against Prairie View A&M and Becky fell in love. Since then, he’s shot 37.5% from the field while converting just 16% of his three-point shots. Every now and then he’ll have a possession where he looks pretty decent, but his confidence has to be down from where it was several weeks ago. I’m not impressed, but he may turn out being a little better than I would have thought a few months ago.
#40 Jared Berggren
6’10” RS sophomore oaf from Minnesota. He’ll probably play about 10 minutes and not do much. Good size and is another big fella that can actually drop in a trey if left open (5/10 on the year). I could actually see him knocking in a few shots against us. Jared’s areas of specialty include turning the ball over and fouling the other team.
Others I will mention…
You’ll see #24 6’6 senior Tim Jarmusz out there. He’s not good.
#5 6’6 sophomore Ryan Evans has been struggling mightily from the field – unless he fully regrows the high top fade by Tuesday night, I’d let the kid shoot. 29.1% from the field this year. Just brutal. But, he is a solid defensive rebounder.
6’4” junior #33 Rob Wilson has had the injury bug and is averaging less than 8 mpg in 10 games; however, I could see him getting a chance to see what he can do in certain matchups defensively and may get double-digit minutes.
#1 Ben Brust is a 6’1” point guard who originally was committed to Iowa. After initially being shutout, uw-madison caused more of a scene than Aubrey Seiler and was finally allowed to pursue the quitter. Brust has played sparingly (less than 4 mpg in 10 games).
Freshman #13 Duje Dukan is 6’8” and looked a lot more promising before the season started. He’s done absolutely nothing this year and that should not change Tuesday night.
#2 Wquinton Smith has an interesting name. That’s about it.
----------------
Quick look at P-5 scores for certain of the players to see who may fill up the statsheet... (pts + reb + [ast x 2] + stl + blk - TO) / Mins Played.. PS - I just quickly calculated these manually.. risk of a bad calc is relatively high...
uw-madison
Leuer 1.01
Taylor .86
Berggren .73
Nankivil .68
Wilson .68
Evans .63
Gasser .56
Bruesewitz .50
Jarmusz .43
Minnesota
Mbakwe .92
Walker .86
Sampson .83
Hoffarber .82
Iverson .82
Joseph .73
Armelin .66
Nolen .65
Williams .61
Hollins .54
Ahanmisi .47
Note: Some of the information below may or may not be factual and I reserve to the right to drastically change my thoughts and/or any of the numbers for any reason.
#14/#13 Minnesota @ NR/#24 uw-madison, December 28, 2010
It’s been an exciting past ten days for uw-madison fans. The Public Ivy wrapped up another successful semester of preparing its youth for grown-up life. Time and time again I am impressed when I meet uw-madison grads while they are working in the real world. Whether it’s Joe (uw-madison ’98), the extraordinarily efficient check-out cashier at the grocery store, Jackie (uw-madison ’04), the always spunky barista who remembers my order at the coffee shop every single time, or Tim (uw-madison ’94), who has a certain ‘flair’ that seems to enable him to pick out the perfect bouquet of flowers every time I need help figuring out what to give a gal that I’m taking out on a date… it’s always the same – these folks are great at what they do. It’s no wonder Tim was promoted to morning shift co-manager this summer.
Not only are final exams now complete, but the badger faithful have been celebrating a big national championship thanks to their esteemed alumnus Booker Stanley. Sister school uw-whitewater captured another D3 football crown thanks in no small part to the contribution of this fine badger. A week of celebration by athletic director Barry Alvarez was topped off by a wonderful Christmas dinner on Saturday. I understand his son Chad cooked the bird.
Now, however, it’s back to business. That means uw-madison (10-2, NR AP/#24 Coaches) is getting ready to play host to the Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-1, #14/#13) at the Kohl Center, which is part athletic facility, part nursing home. Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm CT on Tuesday, December 28, 2010 [ESPN2]. We know our Gophers (although it’s important to note that Mo Walker is out for the game and Trevor Mbakwe, bothered recently by illness, is expected to be ready to go), so let’s spend a little time on uw-madison.
The Team
Their tempo is brutally slow, as always, but again they are extremely efficient. The Gophers have played only one game this year where the tempo dropped below 66 (West Virginia – 63), but this will surely be game number 2 of that variety. uw-madison’s losses have come at UNLV and against Notre Dame on a neutral court, while victories have included Boston College (neutral), vs. NC State and @Marquette.
The badgers have: Shot well (50.5 2FG% [D1 avg = 47.4%]; 38.2 3FG% [avg = 34.2]), taken care of the ball (TO% of 15.3%, one of the best in the nation… d1 avg is 21.0%.. to compare, the Gophers are at 20.7%; Becky's opponent steal % is just 7.8 - avg is 9.7%), done very well on the o-glass (39.8% OR% vs. D1 avg of 32.8% and slightly better than Gophers 39.4%).
The badgers have not: Gotten to the FT line (28.0% FTA/FGA.. D1 average is 37.9%.. the Gophers are at an impressive 49.6%), although when they get there they shoot it very well... bo's boys also have not turned the opposition over (19.9 TO% on defense… average is 21.0%... steal % of 7.0 is miserable (D1 avg = 9.7%)
Obviously getting certain badgers (i.e., Leuer and/or Taylor) into foul trouble could help us immensely… while we have been great at drawing fouls, the guys you’d most like to see hack us for uw-madison have been doing a solid job of not fouling most nights, even adjusting for their disgusting style of play (Leuer 2.2 Fouls called/40 mins, 2.4 for Jordan Taylor, 2.2 for Nankivil, etc)
Minnesota’s opponents have scored 38.5% of their points from behind the arc this season… average in D1 is about 27-28%. About 35% of uw-madison’s points have come from three-point land this season… they will be letting it fly from deep.
Obvious things we need to do:
+ Cherish our possessions / take care of the ball. The badgers have not stolen the ball much – keep it that way.
+ Rebound - not only has uw-madison been as strong, as or slightly better than us on the offensive glass, their defensive rebounding has been very good as well (much better than ours). Show we can be the better rebounding team.
+ Please!! Cut down on the uncontested shots when on defense – there are several guys that can knock it down if left open. Only three times this season has uw-madison shot less than 45% from the field – two of those were losses.
+ Don’t start off so miserably slow. Especially against this team. The badgers are shooting 43% from 2FG and 34% from 3FG in the first half this year.. but in the second half, those numbers jump to 48% and 43%.
A hot shooting night from a Gopher could be enough to push this one in our favor, but my pick is… uw-madison by 4.
With the tough start to the conference schedule Minnesota has, a victory here would be wonderful. But, we can withstand a loss. Like us, the beginning of uw-madison’s Big 10/11/12 season doesn’t start off pleasantly either – after Minnesota, games 2 and 4 are at Illinois and at Michigan State, respectively.
The Players
#30 Jon Leuer
Leuer is legit. The 6’10” senior from Minnesota has followed up a good junior campaign with 19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, and 1.8 bpg in about 32 mpg. This season, he’s shooting many more treys and converting them at a significantly higher rate as well. Last year 67% of his points were from 2FG range, with less than 15% coming from 3FG. This year he’s at 46% and 38%, respectively, and has drained 30 of 60 three-pointers (that is 50% for any uw-madison readers out there – and much better than his 39% and 30% during the past two seasons). Leuer’s shot attempts will reach double-figures and he will score in double figures. Only Jordan Taylor and Leuer average more than 8 ppg. Minimize good shots for him and then hope for the best. He’s shot less than 43.8% in a game only twice this year – both losses. Constantly triple team him with Ralph, Rodney and Mbakwe and we should be just fine. PS – Leuer will reach the 1,000 career point mark Tuesday (needs 7)
#11 Jordan Taylor
Another Minnesotan, Mr. Taylor is a product of the best high school in the state, likely the country, and perhaps the world. Physically he is a solid young man who stands about 6’1” and has become a steady, well rounded point guard. I wish Jordan the best even though his current school and team are insufferable. He’s playing big minutes (nearly 34 mpg) and has responded by chipping in 15.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, and 4.3 rpg (less than 1 spg, though). He’s not shooting a ton more from deep like Leuer is this season, but his 3FG% has seen nice improvement (41% this year… vs. 33% and 19% in his first two seasons). Another efficient guy, doesn’t turn the ball over, has become a leader.
#52 Keaton Nankivil
Hey look at this! A Madison Memorial kid that went to uw-madison. Keaton is a 6’8” senior forward who is nothing special, but he does have a nice wingspan. Just a guy. On any given night he is capable of reaching double digits in the scoring column, but doesn’t do so with regularity. In 22 mpg, he’s averaging 7.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 1.5 bpg. Does he get time on Mbakwe when the Gophers have the ball? Offensively he’s another efficient dork – doesn’t do so very often, but is capable of stepping back for three (10/24 for 42% this season, but 6 of those makes are from 2 games.. he’s just 4/16 or 25% in games other than those 2). It’s time to get physical with this kid, let him know we want the ball more. Keep him off the offensive glass, where he is very capable.
#31 Mike Bruesewitz (BREW-za-wits)
Is this kid joking with that hair? Unreal. Mike is a 6’6” kid who has gotten a lot of opportunity here in his sophomore year. Another one out of Minnesota, he’s clocking in about 23 mpg, while averaging 5.9 ppg and 3.6 rpg. Doesn’t get used a lot; he’s shot 27 times from 2FG (59%) and 24 times from 3FG (42%). Thinks he’s tougher than he is and a lesson should be taught by our bigs when he tries to stick his nose in the paint.
#21 Josh Gasser (GAH-sir)
6’3” freshman from Wisconsin… originally was looking at a 4 for 5 offer with year one being a walk-on year, but the poor criminal skills of a pair of uw-madison players last year worked in his favor. He’s playing a lot more than I thought he would – 26.6 mpg. But, when so much of your roster is non-descript, I suppose, ‘why not?’ Averaging 6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, he’s been another guy they can put on the floor that usually won’t royally screw up. His debut was a 21 point, 9 rebound performance (5/8 shooting including 2/4 3FG, 9/10 FT) against Prairie View A&M and Becky fell in love. Since then, he’s shot 37.5% from the field while converting just 16% of his three-point shots. Every now and then he’ll have a possession where he looks pretty decent, but his confidence has to be down from where it was several weeks ago. I’m not impressed, but he may turn out being a little better than I would have thought a few months ago.
#40 Jared Berggren
6’10” RS sophomore oaf from Minnesota. He’ll probably play about 10 minutes and not do much. Good size and is another big fella that can actually drop in a trey if left open (5/10 on the year). I could actually see him knocking in a few shots against us. Jared’s areas of specialty include turning the ball over and fouling the other team.
Others I will mention…
You’ll see #24 6’6 senior Tim Jarmusz out there. He’s not good.
#5 6’6 sophomore Ryan Evans has been struggling mightily from the field – unless he fully regrows the high top fade by Tuesday night, I’d let the kid shoot. 29.1% from the field this year. Just brutal. But, he is a solid defensive rebounder.
6’4” junior #33 Rob Wilson has had the injury bug and is averaging less than 8 mpg in 10 games; however, I could see him getting a chance to see what he can do in certain matchups defensively and may get double-digit minutes.
#1 Ben Brust is a 6’1” point guard who originally was committed to Iowa. After initially being shutout, uw-madison caused more of a scene than Aubrey Seiler and was finally allowed to pursue the quitter. Brust has played sparingly (less than 4 mpg in 10 games).
Freshman #13 Duje Dukan is 6’8” and looked a lot more promising before the season started. He’s done absolutely nothing this year and that should not change Tuesday night.
#2 Wquinton Smith has an interesting name. That’s about it.
----------------
Quick look at P-5 scores for certain of the players to see who may fill up the statsheet... (pts + reb + [ast x 2] + stl + blk - TO) / Mins Played.. PS - I just quickly calculated these manually.. risk of a bad calc is relatively high...
uw-madison
Leuer 1.01
Taylor .86
Berggren .73
Nankivil .68
Wilson .68
Evans .63
Gasser .56
Bruesewitz .50
Jarmusz .43
Minnesota
Mbakwe .92
Walker .86
Sampson .83
Hoffarber .82
Iverson .82
Joseph .73
Armelin .66
Nolen .65
Williams .61
Hollins .54
Ahanmisi .47
