Can Al Nolen Save Minnesota?

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From Basketball Prospectus, authored by Pomeroy

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=605

"Now, Minnesota is probably not a worse team with Al Nolen on the floor. But whatever boost he brings is easily overwhelmed by the variability in the performance of his teammates over the course of six games, which indicates that Nolen’s influence is that of a role player more than a star. Basically, if Minnesota is going to finish in the top four of the Big Ten, it’s either going to take some luck in close games, or substantial improvement from the team as a whole."
 

So, the headline is "Can Al Nolen Save Minnesota?" and his conclusion is that he's a role player, not a star, and our success will depend on the other players and/or luck?
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
So, the headline is "Can Al Nolen Save Minnesota?" and his conclusion is that he's a role player, not a star, and our success will depend on the other players and/or luck?
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Correct - in other words, 'no, Al can't save Minnesota'. If you take a look around this message board, I think you'll find a number of people that believe 'we need Al' to have a chance at a great season... there are some that don't agree with that.

Nonetheless, I'm very happy he's likely back tonight - hope all goes well with the injury the rest of the season.
 

OP Headline sounds like the Gophers are 1-10 instead of 10-1. We are winning, and while not always pretty, an ugly win is better than a pretty loss.

Go Gophers!!!
 

Top three finish in Big Ten

I don’t agree with this article; he talks about how many points we scored last year with and without Al…

The writer is missing the point that only because Al was out for academics last year did Devoe get the playing time. And with that Playing time Devoe learned to be the big time contributor in Al’s absence, as he led the gophers into the Big Ten tourney and NCAA tourneys…

This year we have had Al and no Devoe and then Devoe and no Al. Plus we have a number of good freshmen who are only going to get better as the season goes on.

I really think once Tubby has time to get things flowing with what ever rotation he decides on we will excel.

Maybe Al, Devoe, Williams, Mbakwe, and Sampson will be our best line up for the last couple minutes in a game. Tubby will figure it out; we are going to do really well this season.

Go Gophs
 


Gopher Warrior said:
Correct - in other words, 'no, Al can't save Minnesota'. If you take a look around this message board, I think you'll find a number of people that believe 'we need Al' to have a chance at a great season... there are some that don't agree with that.

Nonetheless, I'm very happy he's likely back tonight - hope all goes well with the injury the rest of the season.
Click to expand...

If I were coach, I'd rather have Blake, Al, and Devoe getting 75-80 minutes at G than just Blake, Devoe, and one of the frosh G.
 

Jon said:
I don’t agree with this article; he talks about how many points we scored last year with and without Al…

The writer is missing the point that only because Al was out for academics last year did Devoe get the playing time. And with that Playing time Devoe learned to be the big time contributor in Al’s absence, as he led the gophers into the Big Ten tourney and NCAA tourneys…

This year we have had Al and no Devoe and then Devoe and no Al. Plus we have a number of good freshmen who are only going to get better as the season goes on.

I really think once Tubby has time to get things flowing with what ever rotation he decides on we will excel.

Maybe Al, Devoe, Williams, Mbakwe, and Sampson will be our best line up for the last couple minutes in a game. Tubby will figure it out; we are going to do really well this season.

Go Gophs
Click to expand...

I agree. I also agree with Dr. Don. This team will do well against almost every team in Big10. I am not saying that it will 18-0.

We have several types of lineups. We can go small and have Devoe replacing Ralph (Al, Blake, Devoe, Rod, and Trevor) or go big and have Austin replacing Blake (Al, Austin, Rod, Trevor and Ralph). I know that Blake and Austin have the same height but Austin can jump higher and is quicker. It is good to have many options.

Go Gophers
 

Al is a role player...it just so happens he occupies maybe the most important role on the team. The author of the article is looking at things in a simplistic, fantasy-basketball way that doesn't take into account the importance of Al's defense or his ability to run Tubby's offense. At times, especially at home, our transition game is our most effective offense. Without Al, we have seen a huge drop-off in steals and fast breaks.
 

Gopherhomer, I agree Al does have the most important role on the team. This is why I predict another 5th or 6th place finish for MN. We must upgrade this position if we are going to compete for a Big Ten title. With Al in the game it does get a little more up tempo, but in the half court (which in the Big Ten is where we are most of the time) Al is a liablity on offense.
 



I don't know if Al will "save" the Gophers (I wasn't aware 10-1 teams needed to be saved), but I sure like him playing as opposed to not playing. Looking forward to his return tonight.
 

A lot of good points on this thread so far. Al runs the team, as any point guard does. He is to the Gophers what Rajon Rondo is to the Celtics. He wont (usually) score 20pts a game, he doesnt spread the floor with his shooting ability but he is a lock down defender, takes care of the ball and gets guys EASY baskets. He is also our best bet to penetrate and get to the rim when we need someone to do that. He can attack a zone better than Devoe and when he does he can pass it to open shooters (blake, devoe, hollins) or dish it inside to the bigs. Does he make us a B10 contender on his own? Not a chance but he does give us the ability to compete for a B10 title with the rest of the pieces around him
 

GopherHomer said:
Without Al, we have seen a huge drop-off in steals
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Actually, we've seen about a 25% increase in steals since Al has been out this year:

6 games with Nolen: 50 steals.. 8.3/game... steal percentage of 11.7%
5 games without: 50 steals.. 10.0/game... steal percentage of 14.6%
 

Stats are stats--
With Al we beat teams like Wofford, Siena, Western Kentucky, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Without Al we lost to Virginia and beat some average teams like Cornell, St. Joseph's, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron.

It makes a difference who you are playing, when you look at stats. Blake shoots better against teams that don't cover him well too...
 



Jon said:
Stats are stats--
With Al we beat teams like Wofford, Siena, Western Kentucky, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Without Al we lost to Virginia and beat some average teams like Cornell, St. Joseph's, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron.

It makes a difference who you are playing, when you look at stats.
Click to expand...

Absolutely - the competition does matter. (in the case of steals going up by 25% without Al, though, I was just replying to someone who said there had been a huge drop in steals, period, which isn't the case).

But.. if we look a little closer.. in the case of steal %, believe it or not, so far this season if you take the 6 teams Nolen played against... take their opponents average steal % against each of them... then divide by 6... you get a higher % than doing the same calculation for the 5 teams Nolen has not played against.

That is, on average, the teams that Nolen played against give up the ball via the opponent stealing it more than the teams Nolen did not play against do. Also.. as I mentioned in another post:

Gopher Warrior said:
Trends - past four season for Nolen:
Stl/40: 3.56, 3.76, 2.93, 3.44 (stl/40 only 1.76 excluding the Siena (6 stl in 27 mins) and NDSU (5
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...Al has had two big games that have boosted his steals for the year... in terms of protecting the ball, Siena has been one of the worst in the nation this year.. NDSU actually one of the better (although IIRC I think the Coleman kid from MN coughed it up 4 times in that game... and Al had 5 of MN's 7 total steals in that game).
 

What I really like about Al is that he is a *SENIOR* point guard who has spent 4 years in this program. He knows the system, he knows his role in it. He is less likely to get the "Tubby hook" at this poitn in his acreer.

It's not like seniors *always* make good decisions, but they tend to make better decisions on-court than freshmen do. Remember the old Bobby Knight adage (the best thing about a freshman is that he becomes a sophmore....) Al had a pretty good run down in Puerto Rico, and hopefully he can get back to that level......
 

Pomeroy's got us going 7 - 11 in Big Ten play. On that basis, because I find his prediction disagreeable, I reject anything bad he has to say! :)
 


For having such advanced stats he has a really simplistic view of Al's significance. I wonder how many times he's actually watched the Gophers play.

"But whatever boost he brings is easily overwhelmed by the variability in the performance of his teammates over the course of six games, which indicates that Nolen’s influence is that of a role player more than a star."

I can't get over how idiotic of a statement that is. His "evidence" that "indicates" Nolen is a role player is from 6 games from last year. Maybe that arguably suggests that Nolen was a role player for 6 games last year because Iverson and and Devoe played out of their minds, especially in the BTT where we arguably had more to play for (making the tournament vs. a slight difference in seeding for other teams). Also, Nolen went against a full strength Purdue team. Purdue didn't have Hummel for basically 2 games where Nolen didn't play.

Pomeroy had some nice statistics, but idiotic articles like this and his predicted wins in general really bother me. I still can't get over our predicted loss to Iowa. I'll take common sense over whatever stats he has on that one.
 

Devoe talking about Al
"You can just see when he is out there, our intensity steps up," Joseph said. "He made a couple plays there where he's going out of bounds, saving the ball. He's a great defensive player. And on the offensive end, just controlling the team and running the team really well. It definitely changes our team a lot."
AP ;Colton Iverson leads Minnesota past South Dakota Statehttp://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=303570135
 

I think Pomeroy has Purdue and Minnesota both "wrong" - I think they're basically going to switch places based on where he has them currently projected. Of course Nolen makes a huge difference, especially defensively, which is where the Gophers this season have not been particularly good according to Pomeroy. And of course he has overrated Wisconsin a little, but that happens every year.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Actually, we've seen about a 25% increase in steals since Al has been out this year:

6 games with Nolen: 50 steals.. 8.3/game... steal percentage of 11.7%
5 games without: 50 steals.. 10.0/game... steal percentage of 14.6%
Click to expand...

Well, I can't argue with those numbers but they can be misleading. Anytime an opponent throws the ball into our arms, it'll count as a steal. Nolan seems to create more on his own, which lead to immediate fast break opportunities. Somebody simply tossing the ball into Iverson's hands just doesn't have the same effect. The stats are interesting, though...I wouldn't have guessed that was the case. Also, some of the higher quality teams we've played have been with Nolan in the lineup, which could skew the numbers as well.
 

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