Gopher Warrior
Banned
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 3,915
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 36
Twitter: bigjaybee
Note: I completely disclaim all of this as pure jibberish and not well thought out. Numbers, facts and opinions may be disjointed from reality and subject to immense change.
Prior to the start of the season, I had some random thoughts on the Gophers team...Pre-Season Thoughts
Now with just one non-conference game remaining, I wanted to circle back and see how goofy my thoughts were and how the outlook has changed. NOTE: Discussion in italic type represents quotes from the Pre-Season Thoughts post from early November.
On The Big Ten
"First and second go to tOSU and Michigan State, without question. After those two, I think any ordering of the next four is reasonable. From there, Northwestern stands out from the bottom four, which could be mixed up reasonably as long as Iowa remains on the bottom...
...For the Gophers, a 5th or 6th place finish is reasonable as long as they earn a tourney berth. 7th would be disappointing and anything worse would be disgraceful. 3rd or 4th is doable and is a reasonable team goal. 1st or 2nd would be a significant accomplishment...
...The Gophers are thrown into the gauntlet early on in conference play...A 1-3 start certainly doesn’t mean all is lost - but the team may need to show resolve and push through the rest of the season as they did a year ago."
I'm still comfortable with these thoughts.
On Match-ups and Lineups
"Match-ups: The Gophers can play huge if needed, but certain match-ups may dictate that we don’t. Some of the potential combinations are intriguing but are going to be unwise in some situations...
...My general starting lineup would likely be: Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, Mbakwe and Sampson. Iverson and Williams are also capable of starting at this point in the season.
Sampson, Mbakwe and Iverson are each capable of a points-rebounds double double on any given night...
...From there, I believe we can count on Hollins and Walker for some minutes right out of the gate. Armelin may be able to help some as well."
No changes here, I still feel the same way. The suspension of Joseph and Nolen's injury have dicatated that my preferred lineup has not yet occured, but it very well could in the near future. I don't think there are many opportunities we'd ever have to play more than 2 out of Ralph/Colton/Mo/Trevor at one time, but it would interesting to see if the opposition's five allowed us to try it for a few minutes.
I've heard people - fans, national media, local media all included - say multiple times that we are a deep team. I'm still not sold on that opinion. This team's core has very good experience, but I don't see us as being particular deep when it comes to the bench. I see the returning guys as all being potential big minute guys (25+) -- Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, Mbakwe, Sampson, Iverson and Williams... after that, Hollins 15-20 and Mo 10-15.
Al Nolen
It's hard to overstate the importance of an experienced senior point guard. Nolen, at times this year has looked phenomenal, but I think he is largely the same guy we expected - very important defensively and a solid, true point guard who isn't a very good shooter. Al has been to the line a ton so far this year, largely due to a couple of games in Puerto Rico - that FT rate will fall as the season progresses, but hopefully he continues to get plenty of shots from the stripe.
Despite having some stretches of play where he looks like an incredibly improved stud, some of his statistics are actually not trending well compared to past seasons; however, there is no doubt his healthy return is quite important to the team. He is our only true point guard that we want playing meaningful minutes.
Trends - past four season for Nolen:
TO/40 mins: 3.14 (current year), 2.45 (jr), 2.61 (so), 3.22 (fr)
Stl/40: 3.56, 3.76, 2.93, 3.44 (stl/40 only 1.76 excluding the Siena (6 stl in 27 mins) and NDSU (5 in 28)
Ast/40: 5.24, 7.26, 6.54, 6.23
Ast to TO: 1.67, 2.96, 2.51, 1.93
Blake Hoffarber
"Possessing one of the better shots in the nation, Blake Hoffarber will burn you alive if left with any space...
Blake’s offensive rating was the best in the nation and is the team’s highest returning scorer, but he has been somewhat limited in being able to create his own shot. In 2010-11, Hoffarber may need to be a little more aggressive in his shot selection. While the offensive rating may decrease a bit in his senior season, the two-time Espy winner has shown he can make a clutch shot and adding just a touch of “greed” to his game could benefit this team....
...An elite three point shooter and a heady senior that doesn’t make many mistakes on either end of the floor, Hoffarber’s value to this team is substantial...
...Random Fact or Thought: Hoffarber has never attempted more than six free throws in any of his 100+ games."
As expected, the offensive rating and shooting percentages are down (see below), but I'm not complaining. In addition to converting treys at a highly respectable 40%, Hoffarber has even showed flashes of swag from inside the arc. In addition to the scoring (a team-leading 14.8 ppg), he's passing the ball to setup teammates, getting rebounds, turning over the opponent and taking care of the ball. Good looking season. A senior leader.
2010-11 figures to date (2009-10 in parenthesis)
Off Rating: 125.8 (131.7)
% of Possessions Used: 19.5% (14.4%)
% of Shots Taken: 24.3% (17.9%)
FG%: 42.4% (49.6%)
3FG%: 40.0% (46.7%)
Effective FG%: 56.8 senior year, 67.3 junior year
True shooting %: 59.5 sr, 68.6 jr
Random Fact or Thought: The most Hoff has been to the line in one game has been 4 times this year.
Ralph Sampson III
"Ralph seems a bit overlooked by some coming into this season, but could prove to be the key piece to a very successful season. At 6’11, he possesses skills to score the basketball on the inside as well a nifty jump shot from 10-15 feet out. After Devoe Joseph, he may be go-to scoring option number two on this squad...
...At times last year he seemed fired up for a moment… but that would only last 20 seconds. I’d like to see a more aggressive and passionate RSIII with some consistency, but it’s not in his character. However, his skills are good enough that he could find himself as an All-Conference player in one of his final two years at the U. I expect Ralph to exceed the expectations of many this season."
OK, the All-Conference honors may not come this year... it's really been more of the same - he'll follow up a couple of great games with a real stinker. But, I do still think he's capable of playing at an All-Conference level. He also provides us a big that can step out from under the basket and knock down a jumper, which is not something you want to see coming from Iverson, Mbakwe or Walker (well, Walker shooting a trey is an entertaining sight). I wouldn't mind seeing the offense run through him a little more. At the end of the day, here's a junior center that averages 11.7 ppg and 6.0 rpg. He's going to shoot 50%, he's going to block shots. I'll take it. There is still plenty of upside here - he's an important piece if we want to have a very successful season.
Colton Iverson
"If Iverson can cut down on the turnovers and convert free throws attempts at a non Shaq-like rate (51.7% career FT percentage), he should have a solid year and play an important role on this team. Whether or not he starts, I’d like to see his minutes get into the low 20s per game if he is doing the right things on the court. In 2009-10, his average mpg declined to 16.9 (from 17.7 as a frosh) and he only played in excess of 20 minutes eight times all year (half of those occurring in his four starts… averaged 25.3 as a starter and 15.9 off the bench)."
Colt's another guy that will come through with a double-double one night, then score 0 and grab 3 boards the next. The minutes are down slightly from last year (16.5 vs 16.9) -- I still hope these go up into the low 20s if he starts to play with some consistency. His 6.3 ppg and 5.9 rpg are fine, but inconsistent. Turning the ball over and picking up fouls continue to be an issue. His performances against UNC (7 pts, 11 reb in 13 mins) and WVU (15 pts, 8 reb in 28 mins) were promising, although in those two games he also had a combined 5 turnovers and 8 fouls.
Devoe Joseph
"Nolen should take up the bulk of meaningful point guard minutes, but Joseph may need to fill in if the youngsters are not able to. If healthy, Joseph should average 12 points or better, along with 3 rebs and 3 assists. Although he’s shot under 40% during his Gopher career, he’s a guy I want getting the ball when the team needs to create offense quickly."
Through five games, Joseph is averaging 11.2 ppg, 3.2 apg and 2.0 rpg. At times the decisions while playing the point haven't been inspiring, but hopefully Nolen gets back and Devoe is playing off guard and continuing to look to score. At times he looks like a gunner out there, but that is fine with me - we can use some of that. The 12+ ppg/3rpg/3apg still looks appropriate. Glad to have him back and look forward to some impressive outings during the Big Ten season from Devoe.
Rodney Williams
"Rodney is very impressive to watch because you never know when exactly when a highlight reel move is coming, but you know it’s probably coming soon...
With some space he will make your jaw drop. In a half court set, however, he has a ways to go. I believe he is still another year off before potentially becoming a star in the Big Ten, but he should be an important contributor to this year’s team and will certainly lead the team in highlights."
After handing the ball over entirely too much in the first four games (5.05 TO/40 mins), that issue has been cleaned up a bit (2.69 TO/40). It could be an important aspect to his all around game sometime down the line, but for now I wouldn't mind him shying away from the three point shot. Last year, 33% of Williams' shots were from behind the arc and he hit at a 28.6% clip (10/35). This year, 16 of his 55 field goal attempts (29%) are from deep.. he's 2/16 (12.5%).
His performance in the 2nd half of the Akron game was excellent and hopefully he builds on it.
Trevor Mbakwe
"Mbakwe is a man. Physically impressive at 6’8”, 240, he has no problem going to war inside, which he will have to do in the Big Ten. Many of the Gopher faithful seem to have somewhat inflated expectations of Mbakwe, but certainly he will be very good, if not great, this year. 8 points and 5 boards should be attainable and with the bigs on the roster would probably be enough to help the team. However, the potential is there to produce something more in the 12 point, 8 board range this season...
...Don’t expect to see Trevor popping shots from 15+ feet out with any regularity, but he will take the ball to the rim and have some nice outings in the scoring column and he will have some big rebounding nights. In addition, prepare to see some vicious shot blocks from this young man."
Mbakwe has been an absolute beast inside... so far, so good/great. But, taking on bad teams with 6'7" centers is one thing.. taking on the frontlines of the
Big Ten is another. Incredible performances, but no double-digit rebounds vs. UNC or WVA. It appears he'll be around the 12 point, 8 board range if not slightly better (currently at 13.7 and 10.5). He also gets an A+ for the yells after dunks and blocks... I don't mind a little emotion at all.. let them know what you just did, big fella.
We don't need to try to expand his game from outside the paint - what he's doing now is working out just fine (61.9 FG%). Mbakwe has been drawing fouls at an impressive rate. The free throw shooting has been poor at 56%, but he's getting to the line almost 8 times per game and we should hope that continues. I believe he shot 67% from the line at Miami Dade two years ago (over 200 attempts) and I'm expecting this percentage to improve over the remainder of the season.
Maurice Walker
"The Canadian takes up a lot of space inside and has the hands that could result in him becoming a solid contributor at this level...In 2010-11, Walker is in a good position in that he can ease into the college game with the roster Minnesota has. I’d be happy with 10 minutes per game where he lays his body on the opposition, tosses in a bucket or two, grabs a couple of boards… all while improving his conditioning and physique over the course of the year."
You can see that Mo possesses basketball skills - he's not just a big body. So far, he's had no problem pulling down offensive rebounds. Nonetheless, he'll need to improve his conditioning to get more minutes now and in the future (averaging 3.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg in 9.5 mpg).
Austin Hollins
"Great length, moves well without the ball and has a knack for getting to the rock before anyone else. In year one, Hollins needs to play consistent basketball and be an all around player - he is capable of doing a number of things well on the court. His Inspector Gadget arms will help on defense and if he can consistently play tough d when subbed into games, he will get his minutes. At times, you’ll see Hollins stroke it from downtown and make some athletic moves at the rim. But what is needed this year is good defense, and few mistakes."
Hollins is getting decent minutes (17.5/g) and is playing some solid defense. Austin had a string of 4 games where he totaled 12 steals, but in the other 7 has just 3 steals combined. With our big men up front, many boards have gone to them, but thus far Hollins rebounding has been nearly nonexistent (1.2/g, season high of 3). You almost have to be trying to avoid to ball to rebound like he has been... but, I'll chalk it up to our bigs and good transition for now. Nearly half of his turnovers came against UNC and WVU and I think he'll experience some growing pains during the conference portion of the schedule. Still, a young man that can play some steady ball for 15 minutes or so a night and a guy that will continue to improve over the years.
Maverick Ahanmisi
"Listed generously at 6’2”, he may see limited action at point guard during portions of the non-conference schedule."
With Devoe and Al out for portions of the year and Tubby's desire to hockey-sub, Maverick has gotten some time (9.3 mpg, including 2 starts). Averaging 1.9 ppg, 1.2 apg, and 1.0 rpg, his highlight film contribution consists of a half-court buzzer beater. Shooting 5/14 (35.7) from the field and averaging 4.7 TO/40 mins, things haven't been good for him on the court, but it hasn't been a disaster either. If someone needs a rest, or there are injuries/other issues, he may need to play... but, I'm not sure he's got more than 5-7 minutes per game coming to him in the Big 10.
Chip Armelin
"Standing about 6’3”, he likes to shoot the ball when on offense. Has good spring to his step and will have his moments against lesser competition in limited minutes this early winter. However, his offensive tendencies may not work well in this offense and unless his defensive play is consistently impressive, I could see him getting a quick hook when he does make appearances in games. True, the Gophers do need go to scorers, but I don’t think Chip is the answer this year...
...At a minimum, a fun player to watch that will occasionally impress during limited appearances… at best, a contributor who adds a scoring punch and aggressiveness on offense."
No change to these thoughts. He has impressed occasionally... he does like to shoot the ball (highest percentage of shots taken on the team). He has also gotten the quick hook. Averaging 10.7 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg... just 4/20 3FG, but is an impressive 16/24 (66.7%) when shooting for 2. A wild man that is fun to watch.. not sure he'll get reigned in enough this year to make a significant impact during the conference games.
The Team
So now what? We're a top 20 team with a brutal start to the conference schedule.
Happy view: We beat the sensational North Carolina Tar Heels and 2011 multi-millionaire Harrison Barnes. We took on Huggy Bear and beat his Final Four team. We lost to Virginia, but their coach has good bloodlines and they are from the ACC. Even when we come out slow, we take care of business late in the game.
Realistic view: We beat an overrated North Carolina team that is now unranked. We beat a team from the Big East that was picked to finished 5th in their conference. Now 5 of the top 9 in the Coaches poll are from the Big East, and WVA isn't even ranked. We lost to a bad team at the Barn. The first half of many games we've looked awful.
This team is... 6-5 against the spread, I believe. Straight up, we are a +1. We're in about the same spot as we were to start the year - should demand that we make it to the tourney. 1st or 2nd place in the Big 10 would be a huge accomplishment. Anywhere 3-6 would be reasonable... 3 would be a nice accomplishment.
The potential for an incredible season is there, however. A tourney team that could start 2 seniors and 3 juniors, with the top 2 coming off the bench consisting of a junior center and a sophomore that some think will be playing in the NBA soon... plus, another beefy center available in case one of the other bigs gets into trouble. Doesn't look too awful.
Free Throws
Overall, free throws have been a positive. Getting to the line greatly improves a team's point per possession (by approx 40%) and the Gophers have been phenomenal. The Gophers FTA/FGA is 50.2%. That puts us up with the highest in the nation... the average being 38%. Yes - we are shooting 62.5% from the line - but getting there outweighs that. In my extremely limited time playing in high school, I shot 86% (mostly because I was well rested from being on the bench most of the game) and always was upset with any missed free throw - the word free is in the damn name! But, the average free throw % in D1 tends to be about 69%. So we're off 6.5% from the average (and 7.5% from last season). We have 309 FTA this year.. 6.5% x 309 = 20 additional points if we had converted the average percentage of free throws (ignoring a small adjustment for front ends)... 20 / 11 games = less than 2 points per game.
Missed free throws are very upsetting to me, but it's not something I am going to freak out about and worry about when it comes to the team's future. It will improve some. But, more importantly, we need to keep getting to the line.
What is the answer to help with free throws? Toughen up. I wouldn't spend much, if any, of the allotted practice time shooting free throws. These kids can work on that on their own time. If there is some significant mechanical issue - then sure, deal with that. If you want to bring in a psychic or something, go ahead... but, don't stand around and have kids shoot free throws. They need to get mentally tough and handle their biz on the court. Bad free throw shooting can get contagious - because of the mental aspects. Get out there and make your shots, fellas.
By the way, our opposition's FTA/FGA against us has been just 29.7%.
Care About the Ball
The Gophers turnover percent is about 21.1%, which is the D1 average. We can't be average. Not with a team that can't force the issue on offense. The sad thing is our best performance in this regard was against Virginia. Against the tougher competition (UNC and WVA) we were poor.. likewise, we had issues against EKU and Akron. This needs to be improved. Assists to turnovers.. on the year, 1.13.. only two games under 1.00.. UNC .68 and WVA .77. Be scared.
Offensive Rebounding
A bright spot and it should be, both based on our personnel and the competition to date. At 38.9%, our offensive rebounding percentage is one of the better ones in the nation and plenty higher than the average 32.8%. Only two times this year have we been below the 32.8% average - vs. WVU (31.2%) and the loss to Virginia (28.6%). We've been strong, but really need to continue to be.
Defense
I would have liked to have seen more turnovers forced.. currently our D TO rate is at 21.7% vs. the 21.1% average.
From three-point range, opponents are shooting 36.7% compared to an average of 34.0%... combined with the fact that a very high percent of shots taken (39.2 3FG/FGA - one of the highest in the nation; average is 32.9%) by our foes are from deep, this becomes concerning. We know it's coming, but aren't doing a good job at combating it.
It does come with the territory (i.e., our primary defense and personnel), but I do hope we can get creative in addressing some of the defensive concerns.
On the other hand, from inside the arc they've got no chance. Opponents are shooting just 40.4% compared to an avearge of 47.4%.
I will promise with 95% certainty that the Gophers finish the season with a recor [Out of time... gotta wrap it up here]
Note: I completely disclaim all of this as pure jibberish and not well thought out. Numbers, facts and opinions may be disjointed from reality and subject to immense change.
Prior to the start of the season, I had some random thoughts on the Gophers team...Pre-Season Thoughts
Now with just one non-conference game remaining, I wanted to circle back and see how goofy my thoughts were and how the outlook has changed. NOTE: Discussion in italic type represents quotes from the Pre-Season Thoughts post from early November.
On The Big Ten
"First and second go to tOSU and Michigan State, without question. After those two, I think any ordering of the next four is reasonable. From there, Northwestern stands out from the bottom four, which could be mixed up reasonably as long as Iowa remains on the bottom...
...For the Gophers, a 5th or 6th place finish is reasonable as long as they earn a tourney berth. 7th would be disappointing and anything worse would be disgraceful. 3rd or 4th is doable and is a reasonable team goal. 1st or 2nd would be a significant accomplishment...
...The Gophers are thrown into the gauntlet early on in conference play...A 1-3 start certainly doesn’t mean all is lost - but the team may need to show resolve and push through the rest of the season as they did a year ago."
I'm still comfortable with these thoughts.
On Match-ups and Lineups
"Match-ups: The Gophers can play huge if needed, but certain match-ups may dictate that we don’t. Some of the potential combinations are intriguing but are going to be unwise in some situations...
...My general starting lineup would likely be: Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, Mbakwe and Sampson. Iverson and Williams are also capable of starting at this point in the season.
Sampson, Mbakwe and Iverson are each capable of a points-rebounds double double on any given night...
...From there, I believe we can count on Hollins and Walker for some minutes right out of the gate. Armelin may be able to help some as well."
No changes here, I still feel the same way. The suspension of Joseph and Nolen's injury have dicatated that my preferred lineup has not yet occured, but it very well could in the near future. I don't think there are many opportunities we'd ever have to play more than 2 out of Ralph/Colton/Mo/Trevor at one time, but it would interesting to see if the opposition's five allowed us to try it for a few minutes.
I've heard people - fans, national media, local media all included - say multiple times that we are a deep team. I'm still not sold on that opinion. This team's core has very good experience, but I don't see us as being particular deep when it comes to the bench. I see the returning guys as all being potential big minute guys (25+) -- Nolen, Joseph, Hoffarber, Mbakwe, Sampson, Iverson and Williams... after that, Hollins 15-20 and Mo 10-15.
Al Nolen
It's hard to overstate the importance of an experienced senior point guard. Nolen, at times this year has looked phenomenal, but I think he is largely the same guy we expected - very important defensively and a solid, true point guard who isn't a very good shooter. Al has been to the line a ton so far this year, largely due to a couple of games in Puerto Rico - that FT rate will fall as the season progresses, but hopefully he continues to get plenty of shots from the stripe.
Despite having some stretches of play where he looks like an incredibly improved stud, some of his statistics are actually not trending well compared to past seasons; however, there is no doubt his healthy return is quite important to the team. He is our only true point guard that we want playing meaningful minutes.
Trends - past four season for Nolen:
TO/40 mins: 3.14 (current year), 2.45 (jr), 2.61 (so), 3.22 (fr)
Stl/40: 3.56, 3.76, 2.93, 3.44 (stl/40 only 1.76 excluding the Siena (6 stl in 27 mins) and NDSU (5 in 28)
Ast/40: 5.24, 7.26, 6.54, 6.23
Ast to TO: 1.67, 2.96, 2.51, 1.93
Blake Hoffarber
"Possessing one of the better shots in the nation, Blake Hoffarber will burn you alive if left with any space...
Blake’s offensive rating was the best in the nation and is the team’s highest returning scorer, but he has been somewhat limited in being able to create his own shot. In 2010-11, Hoffarber may need to be a little more aggressive in his shot selection. While the offensive rating may decrease a bit in his senior season, the two-time Espy winner has shown he can make a clutch shot and adding just a touch of “greed” to his game could benefit this team....
...An elite three point shooter and a heady senior that doesn’t make many mistakes on either end of the floor, Hoffarber’s value to this team is substantial...
...Random Fact or Thought: Hoffarber has never attempted more than six free throws in any of his 100+ games."
As expected, the offensive rating and shooting percentages are down (see below), but I'm not complaining. In addition to converting treys at a highly respectable 40%, Hoffarber has even showed flashes of swag from inside the arc. In addition to the scoring (a team-leading 14.8 ppg), he's passing the ball to setup teammates, getting rebounds, turning over the opponent and taking care of the ball. Good looking season. A senior leader.
2010-11 figures to date (2009-10 in parenthesis)
Off Rating: 125.8 (131.7)
% of Possessions Used: 19.5% (14.4%)
% of Shots Taken: 24.3% (17.9%)
FG%: 42.4% (49.6%)
3FG%: 40.0% (46.7%)
Effective FG%: 56.8 senior year, 67.3 junior year
True shooting %: 59.5 sr, 68.6 jr
Random Fact or Thought: The most Hoff has been to the line in one game has been 4 times this year.
Ralph Sampson III
"Ralph seems a bit overlooked by some coming into this season, but could prove to be the key piece to a very successful season. At 6’11, he possesses skills to score the basketball on the inside as well a nifty jump shot from 10-15 feet out. After Devoe Joseph, he may be go-to scoring option number two on this squad...
...At times last year he seemed fired up for a moment… but that would only last 20 seconds. I’d like to see a more aggressive and passionate RSIII with some consistency, but it’s not in his character. However, his skills are good enough that he could find himself as an All-Conference player in one of his final two years at the U. I expect Ralph to exceed the expectations of many this season."
OK, the All-Conference honors may not come this year... it's really been more of the same - he'll follow up a couple of great games with a real stinker. But, I do still think he's capable of playing at an All-Conference level. He also provides us a big that can step out from under the basket and knock down a jumper, which is not something you want to see coming from Iverson, Mbakwe or Walker (well, Walker shooting a trey is an entertaining sight). I wouldn't mind seeing the offense run through him a little more. At the end of the day, here's a junior center that averages 11.7 ppg and 6.0 rpg. He's going to shoot 50%, he's going to block shots. I'll take it. There is still plenty of upside here - he's an important piece if we want to have a very successful season.
Colton Iverson
"If Iverson can cut down on the turnovers and convert free throws attempts at a non Shaq-like rate (51.7% career FT percentage), he should have a solid year and play an important role on this team. Whether or not he starts, I’d like to see his minutes get into the low 20s per game if he is doing the right things on the court. In 2009-10, his average mpg declined to 16.9 (from 17.7 as a frosh) and he only played in excess of 20 minutes eight times all year (half of those occurring in his four starts… averaged 25.3 as a starter and 15.9 off the bench)."
Colt's another guy that will come through with a double-double one night, then score 0 and grab 3 boards the next. The minutes are down slightly from last year (16.5 vs 16.9) -- I still hope these go up into the low 20s if he starts to play with some consistency. His 6.3 ppg and 5.9 rpg are fine, but inconsistent. Turning the ball over and picking up fouls continue to be an issue. His performances against UNC (7 pts, 11 reb in 13 mins) and WVU (15 pts, 8 reb in 28 mins) were promising, although in those two games he also had a combined 5 turnovers and 8 fouls.
Devoe Joseph
"Nolen should take up the bulk of meaningful point guard minutes, but Joseph may need to fill in if the youngsters are not able to. If healthy, Joseph should average 12 points or better, along with 3 rebs and 3 assists. Although he’s shot under 40% during his Gopher career, he’s a guy I want getting the ball when the team needs to create offense quickly."
Through five games, Joseph is averaging 11.2 ppg, 3.2 apg and 2.0 rpg. At times the decisions while playing the point haven't been inspiring, but hopefully Nolen gets back and Devoe is playing off guard and continuing to look to score. At times he looks like a gunner out there, but that is fine with me - we can use some of that. The 12+ ppg/3rpg/3apg still looks appropriate. Glad to have him back and look forward to some impressive outings during the Big Ten season from Devoe.
Rodney Williams
"Rodney is very impressive to watch because you never know when exactly when a highlight reel move is coming, but you know it’s probably coming soon...
With some space he will make your jaw drop. In a half court set, however, he has a ways to go. I believe he is still another year off before potentially becoming a star in the Big Ten, but he should be an important contributor to this year’s team and will certainly lead the team in highlights."
After handing the ball over entirely too much in the first four games (5.05 TO/40 mins), that issue has been cleaned up a bit (2.69 TO/40). It could be an important aspect to his all around game sometime down the line, but for now I wouldn't mind him shying away from the three point shot. Last year, 33% of Williams' shots were from behind the arc and he hit at a 28.6% clip (10/35). This year, 16 of his 55 field goal attempts (29%) are from deep.. he's 2/16 (12.5%).
His performance in the 2nd half of the Akron game was excellent and hopefully he builds on it.
Trevor Mbakwe
"Mbakwe is a man. Physically impressive at 6’8”, 240, he has no problem going to war inside, which he will have to do in the Big Ten. Many of the Gopher faithful seem to have somewhat inflated expectations of Mbakwe, but certainly he will be very good, if not great, this year. 8 points and 5 boards should be attainable and with the bigs on the roster would probably be enough to help the team. However, the potential is there to produce something more in the 12 point, 8 board range this season...
...Don’t expect to see Trevor popping shots from 15+ feet out with any regularity, but he will take the ball to the rim and have some nice outings in the scoring column and he will have some big rebounding nights. In addition, prepare to see some vicious shot blocks from this young man."
Mbakwe has been an absolute beast inside... so far, so good/great. But, taking on bad teams with 6'7" centers is one thing.. taking on the frontlines of the
Big Ten is another. Incredible performances, but no double-digit rebounds vs. UNC or WVA. It appears he'll be around the 12 point, 8 board range if not slightly better (currently at 13.7 and 10.5). He also gets an A+ for the yells after dunks and blocks... I don't mind a little emotion at all.. let them know what you just did, big fella.
We don't need to try to expand his game from outside the paint - what he's doing now is working out just fine (61.9 FG%). Mbakwe has been drawing fouls at an impressive rate. The free throw shooting has been poor at 56%, but he's getting to the line almost 8 times per game and we should hope that continues. I believe he shot 67% from the line at Miami Dade two years ago (over 200 attempts) and I'm expecting this percentage to improve over the remainder of the season.
Maurice Walker
"The Canadian takes up a lot of space inside and has the hands that could result in him becoming a solid contributor at this level...In 2010-11, Walker is in a good position in that he can ease into the college game with the roster Minnesota has. I’d be happy with 10 minutes per game where he lays his body on the opposition, tosses in a bucket or two, grabs a couple of boards… all while improving his conditioning and physique over the course of the year."
You can see that Mo possesses basketball skills - he's not just a big body. So far, he's had no problem pulling down offensive rebounds. Nonetheless, he'll need to improve his conditioning to get more minutes now and in the future (averaging 3.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg in 9.5 mpg).
Austin Hollins
"Great length, moves well without the ball and has a knack for getting to the rock before anyone else. In year one, Hollins needs to play consistent basketball and be an all around player - he is capable of doing a number of things well on the court. His Inspector Gadget arms will help on defense and if he can consistently play tough d when subbed into games, he will get his minutes. At times, you’ll see Hollins stroke it from downtown and make some athletic moves at the rim. But what is needed this year is good defense, and few mistakes."
Hollins is getting decent minutes (17.5/g) and is playing some solid defense. Austin had a string of 4 games where he totaled 12 steals, but in the other 7 has just 3 steals combined. With our big men up front, many boards have gone to them, but thus far Hollins rebounding has been nearly nonexistent (1.2/g, season high of 3). You almost have to be trying to avoid to ball to rebound like he has been... but, I'll chalk it up to our bigs and good transition for now. Nearly half of his turnovers came against UNC and WVU and I think he'll experience some growing pains during the conference portion of the schedule. Still, a young man that can play some steady ball for 15 minutes or so a night and a guy that will continue to improve over the years.
Maverick Ahanmisi
"Listed generously at 6’2”, he may see limited action at point guard during portions of the non-conference schedule."
With Devoe and Al out for portions of the year and Tubby's desire to hockey-sub, Maverick has gotten some time (9.3 mpg, including 2 starts). Averaging 1.9 ppg, 1.2 apg, and 1.0 rpg, his highlight film contribution consists of a half-court buzzer beater. Shooting 5/14 (35.7) from the field and averaging 4.7 TO/40 mins, things haven't been good for him on the court, but it hasn't been a disaster either. If someone needs a rest, or there are injuries/other issues, he may need to play... but, I'm not sure he's got more than 5-7 minutes per game coming to him in the Big 10.
Chip Armelin
"Standing about 6’3”, he likes to shoot the ball when on offense. Has good spring to his step and will have his moments against lesser competition in limited minutes this early winter. However, his offensive tendencies may not work well in this offense and unless his defensive play is consistently impressive, I could see him getting a quick hook when he does make appearances in games. True, the Gophers do need go to scorers, but I don’t think Chip is the answer this year...
...At a minimum, a fun player to watch that will occasionally impress during limited appearances… at best, a contributor who adds a scoring punch and aggressiveness on offense."
No change to these thoughts. He has impressed occasionally... he does like to shoot the ball (highest percentage of shots taken on the team). He has also gotten the quick hook. Averaging 10.7 mpg, 4.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg... just 4/20 3FG, but is an impressive 16/24 (66.7%) when shooting for 2. A wild man that is fun to watch.. not sure he'll get reigned in enough this year to make a significant impact during the conference games.
The Team
So now what? We're a top 20 team with a brutal start to the conference schedule.
Happy view: We beat the sensational North Carolina Tar Heels and 2011 multi-millionaire Harrison Barnes. We took on Huggy Bear and beat his Final Four team. We lost to Virginia, but their coach has good bloodlines and they are from the ACC. Even when we come out slow, we take care of business late in the game.
Realistic view: We beat an overrated North Carolina team that is now unranked. We beat a team from the Big East that was picked to finished 5th in their conference. Now 5 of the top 9 in the Coaches poll are from the Big East, and WVA isn't even ranked. We lost to a bad team at the Barn. The first half of many games we've looked awful.
This team is... 6-5 against the spread, I believe. Straight up, we are a +1. We're in about the same spot as we were to start the year - should demand that we make it to the tourney. 1st or 2nd place in the Big 10 would be a huge accomplishment. Anywhere 3-6 would be reasonable... 3 would be a nice accomplishment.
The potential for an incredible season is there, however. A tourney team that could start 2 seniors and 3 juniors, with the top 2 coming off the bench consisting of a junior center and a sophomore that some think will be playing in the NBA soon... plus, another beefy center available in case one of the other bigs gets into trouble. Doesn't look too awful.
Free Throws
Overall, free throws have been a positive. Getting to the line greatly improves a team's point per possession (by approx 40%) and the Gophers have been phenomenal. The Gophers FTA/FGA is 50.2%. That puts us up with the highest in the nation... the average being 38%. Yes - we are shooting 62.5% from the line - but getting there outweighs that. In my extremely limited time playing in high school, I shot 86% (mostly because I was well rested from being on the bench most of the game) and always was upset with any missed free throw - the word free is in the damn name! But, the average free throw % in D1 tends to be about 69%. So we're off 6.5% from the average (and 7.5% from last season). We have 309 FTA this year.. 6.5% x 309 = 20 additional points if we had converted the average percentage of free throws (ignoring a small adjustment for front ends)... 20 / 11 games = less than 2 points per game.
Missed free throws are very upsetting to me, but it's not something I am going to freak out about and worry about when it comes to the team's future. It will improve some. But, more importantly, we need to keep getting to the line.
What is the answer to help with free throws? Toughen up. I wouldn't spend much, if any, of the allotted practice time shooting free throws. These kids can work on that on their own time. If there is some significant mechanical issue - then sure, deal with that. If you want to bring in a psychic or something, go ahead... but, don't stand around and have kids shoot free throws. They need to get mentally tough and handle their biz on the court. Bad free throw shooting can get contagious - because of the mental aspects. Get out there and make your shots, fellas.
By the way, our opposition's FTA/FGA against us has been just 29.7%.
Care About the Ball
The Gophers turnover percent is about 21.1%, which is the D1 average. We can't be average. Not with a team that can't force the issue on offense. The sad thing is our best performance in this regard was against Virginia. Against the tougher competition (UNC and WVA) we were poor.. likewise, we had issues against EKU and Akron. This needs to be improved. Assists to turnovers.. on the year, 1.13.. only two games under 1.00.. UNC .68 and WVA .77. Be scared.
Offensive Rebounding
A bright spot and it should be, both based on our personnel and the competition to date. At 38.9%, our offensive rebounding percentage is one of the better ones in the nation and plenty higher than the average 32.8%. Only two times this year have we been below the 32.8% average - vs. WVU (31.2%) and the loss to Virginia (28.6%). We've been strong, but really need to continue to be.
Defense
I would have liked to have seen more turnovers forced.. currently our D TO rate is at 21.7% vs. the 21.1% average.
From three-point range, opponents are shooting 36.7% compared to an average of 34.0%... combined with the fact that a very high percent of shots taken (39.2 3FG/FGA - one of the highest in the nation; average is 32.9%) by our foes are from deep, this becomes concerning. We know it's coming, but aren't doing a good job at combating it.
It does come with the territory (i.e., our primary defense and personnel), but I do hope we can get creative in addressing some of the defensive concerns.
On the other hand, from inside the arc they've got no chance. Opponents are shooting just 40.4% compared to an avearge of 47.4%.
I will promise with 95% certainty that the Gophers finish the season with a recor [Out of time... gotta wrap it up here]
Just kiddin'. I like the idea.