January 22 RPI Updates (hail to the Wildcats)

Don't look now but Northwestern has forced itself into the conversation as a NCAA candidate from the wild-and-wacky thrill ride called the Big Ten Conference. After last night's stunner in Breslin, the Wildcats (we can't call them Mildcats this season) have a nice RPI of #36 and to this point have played the nation's 7th-toughest overall schedule, behind only Wisconsin (#2) in the Big Ten.

Yes, we haven't reached February. Nevertheless, it's unreal this far into the season that there are only two teams from the Big Ten (Indiana and Iowa) who really have no shot at a NCAA at-large bid. The rollercoaster resumes tonight at Williams Arena, where the Gophers (chew on this) can take sole possession of 2nd place just a half game behind Sparty if they can beat the resurgent but banged-up Boilers.

Rankings courtesy of CollegeRPI.com

Big Ten RPI Rankings
8. Michigan State
19. GOPHERS
22. Illinois
23. Wisconsin
24. Ohio State
36. Northwestern
49. Michigan
53. Purdue
77. Iowa
80. Penn State
181. Indiana

Big Ten Nonconference SOS Rankings (out of 343 D-I teams)
14. Wisconsin
41. Indiana
56. Michigan State
91. Michigan
95. Ohio State
97. Northwestern
140. Illinois
196. Iowa
211. Purdue
232. GOPHERS
327. Penn State

Wins vs. RPI Top 50 (31)
Michigan State 7: at Gophers (19), Illinois (22), Ohio State (24), vs. Texas (29), vs. Oklahoma State (32), at Northwestern (36), Kansas (38)

Michigan 3: Duke (1), Illinois (22), vs. UCLA (45)

Northwestern 3: at Michigan State (8), Gophers (19), Florida State (21)

Ohio State 3: Butler (9), at Miami-Florida (28), at Michigan (49)

GOPHERS 3: vs. Louisville (11), at Wisconsin (23), Ohio State (24)

Purdue 3: Wisconsin (23), at Northwestern (36), vs. Davidson (40)

Illinois 3: Ohio State (24), vs. Mizzou (33), Michigan (49)

Wisconsin 3: Northwestern (36), at Virginia Tech (39), at Michigan (49)

Penn State 2: Northwestern (36), Michigan (49)

Iowa 1: Wisconsin (23)

National RPI Top 25 Rankings
1. Duke
2. Pitt
3. Oklahoma
4. Xavier
5. North Carolina
6. UConn
7. Georgetown
8. Michigan State
9. Butler
10. Clemson
11. Louisville
12. Syracuse
13. Memphis
14. Cal
15. Marquette
16. Wake Forest
17. Utah
18. Tennessee
19. GOPHERS
20. Arizona State
21. Florida State
22. Illinois
23. Wisconsin
24. Ohio State
25. West Virginia

SS,

Isn't this why we love college basketball?? It is just so unpredictable. Question for you. As for NW possibly making the tournament...how many teams have made the tournament the last couple of years with losing conference records? I'm talking at-large bids obviously. You would have to think NW will still finish with a sub-.500 record. But, again, maybe not. Or do you have a site that I could use to find this out??
Thanks

Gopherholefan, to answer your questions. No, I don't think Northwestern will get a bid if they finish under .500 in the Big 10. The only Big 10 teams (excluding MSU) I think would have a chance to get a at-large bid with an 8-10 Big Ten record are Michigan and Ohio State because of who they beat on their nonconference schedule. But even at that, 8-10's a stretch for getting a bid.

In the last two seasons, only 2 teams with sub-.500 conference records (conference tourney games excluded) earned at-large bids. ... Arkansas (7-9 SEC) in 2007 and Arizona (8-10 Pac 10) last season. As a reference point, both Arkansas & Arizona had 5 top-50 wins.

7 teams in the last two seasons have earned at-large bids with a .500 conference record. ... Duke (8 top-50 wins), Georgia Tech (7 top-50 wins) and Michigan State (6 top-50 wins) in 2007 & Texas A&M (5 top-50 wins), Oregon (4 top-50 wins), Villanova (4 top-50 wins) and Miami-Florida (3 top-50 wins) last season.

Thanks

Getting ahead of myself a little, but this would be Northwestern's first NCAA bid ever, would it not? I'm pulling hard for them. They've got a nice team, and I was shocked that they started 0-4. This is probably their best personnel at least since the Eschmeyer group, which was the closest they've come to making the Tournament since I can remember. Coble and Thompson are a dangerous one-two punch, and they've got a well-rounded supporting cast.

That is correct

NW has never made the NCAA. They do have a nice club, clearly Carmody's best team. I like the freshman foreigner big guy (Mirkovic) as well; he does some good things. It's too bad Carmody doesn't get Moore back for another year. He's their best player, in my opinion. He's a big ingredient they'll miss next season, the way he can stretch out a defense. Otherwise, they'll pretty much have everyone back.

SelectionSunday said:

NW has never made the NCAA. They do have a nice club, clearly Carmody's best team. I like the freshman foreigner big guy (Mirkovic) as well; he does some good things. It's too bad Carmody doesn't get Moore back for another year. He's their best player, in my opinion. He's a big ingredient they'll miss next season, the way he can stretch out a defense. Otherwise, they'll pretty much have everyone back.

Click to expand...

Basketball is a weird game. NU lost to 29 in Madison right before the close loss to Purdue and if you had asked me the chances of them beating the Gophers and winning at Michigan State after watching how they played in Madison, I would have said zero.

This thing can turn around in an instant.

Wow, I'm really rooting for NU now. I know they have an awful basketball history, but I didn't know they've NEVER made the tourney. That would be an incredible story, and would also give some credence to the improved Big Ten conference.

That's kind of the perception problem the Big 10 has

When the casual fan sees that Minnesota lost to NW and then Michigan State lost (at home) to NW, their first thought is, "I thought the Big 10 was supposed to be better this season. Oh, it still sucks if its best team & another ranked team can't even beat Northwestern." They hear the name "Northwestern" and they automatically assume the Wildcats are no good.

Those of us who follow Big 10 basketball know that under Carmody NW hasn't been an "easy out", especially at home. They've lost a lot of heartbreakers at home that have stopped them from getting over the hump.

This season is the perfect example. NW is 10-6 with wins over Florida State, the Gophers and Sparty, all potential NCAA squads. In addition, they blew big leads and lost close games vs. two likely NCAA squads (Butler on the road, Purdue at home) and lost another close decision on the road to another potential NCAA squad, Stanford. Just think if they pull out 1 or 2 of those games. ... they'd be sitting pretty darn good right now, certainly in the mix for a NCAA bid. That's how small the margin of error can be.

That's why I puke every time I hear the talking heads say, "There are no breathers in the Big East this season."

That's an out & out falsehood; it's total BS. What do you call DePaul, Rutgers, South Florida and to a lesser extent St. John's and Seton Hall? Yes, there are a lot of NCAA quality teams in the Big East (there should be, there are 16 FRICKING PROGRAMS), but the bottom of the league sucks. Why don't the talking heads at least acknowledge that instead of insulting our intelligence by telling us there aren't any nights off?

This year I look at Penn State & Northwestern and think to myself, "Wow, if those are (potentially) the Big 10's 8th- and 9th-best teams, it's a pretty darn good league."

Normal whipping boys NW and Penn St are very solid teams this year. Luckily, Indiana is terrible offering one "easy" team. Still they will probably win a few games and long-term they will bounce back with Crean. Iowa is very average, but they are still a threat on their home floor to almost any team in the Big Ten.

Its a deep conference this year and every game is a challenge. I like our chances on our home floor against anyone though.

If I had to guess Michigan St, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and ourselves will make the tourney and Ohio St and Michigan have decent chances as well.

Purdue is still not in the top-50 of the RPI, and for a team that was supposed to be carrying the banner for the conference, that's incredibly disappointing. I loathe the pundits sticking to their preseason predictions even when they prove erroneous. The reality is Purdue this season is "just another good Big Ten team," nothing more and nothing less.

The real problem that the Big Ten has now is there should be a lot of doubt about whether any of these teams can make a deep run in the NCAA tourney. The conference has had a total of three teams make the Sweet 16 in the past three tournaments - that's not going to cut it. The good news is the depth of the conference is strong enough that there will be at least six Big Ten teams in the tourney so it'll be impossible for every team to have a bad draw - there are only so many ACC teams to go around.

Wisconsin is in a precarious position now. With the loss at Iowa, they stand at 3-3 in the Big Ten with only one good nonconference win & they've lost two games (vs. MN & @ Iowa) that they would've won the past couple of years. Wisconsin is less certain to make the tourney than OSU due to their weaker nonconference performance and the fact that they don't have a home game with MSU to give them a potential quality win that they probably will really need.


Even with their unbalanced schedule, you're going to have at least seven games against non-NCAA tourney teams in an 18-game Big East schedule - should winning all 7 of those games and a couple of league games against upper half teams get you into the NCAA tourney? I don't think so, not if you don't have any real strong nonconference wins. The committee snubbed OSU last season for not having enough quality wins - theoretically the same should hold true for other conferences in other years. In the Big Ten, there are only two teams that you can look at right now and say they aren't arguably NCAA tourney caliber (Iowa and IU). So you'll have at least 14 games against very solid (i.e., RPI top-100) competition. If all other things (e.g., nonconference resume) are equal, I'd say a 9-9 record in the Big Ten this season should earn a bid ahead of a 9-9 Big East team. I truly believe anyone from the Big Ten outside of Iowa & IU would make the NCAA tourney this season if they played in a weaker conference (i.e., the SEC or Pac-10). The bottom line is Big Ten teams have at least 14 games against NCAA tourney-caliber teams whereas Big East teams will have at most 11 such games.

The reality is the Big Ten schedule is just as grueling if not moreso than the Big East schedule when it comes to "not having a night off" in league play.