Gophers open as underdogs

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I've been saying, unless we upset a couple of teams early we will be favored in only two games this season. And this is what I consider to be Brewsters best team.
 

Ouch, -4.5 pt dogs vs MTSU? I expect that'll come down a bit over the next few weeks, but damn.
 



Im glad we're underdogs. The last thing this team needs going into that game is to be feeling cocky. I would rather have them going into the game with a chip on their shoulder.
 

The surprising thing is that some people actually seem to be surprised by this.
 




I'm betting on a scenario like the first hand of the last scene in Rounders. MTSU will try to come out looking tough. We'll chop a leg out from them, and lean on them the rest of the game until they fall over.
 

My favorite school Underdogs to a sun belt conference team equals sad...
 

I can't find any other sites where odds for that game are even listed yet, but there's no question that line will come down. They set those lines so early to get some action going, and I would bet that the action on the Gophers is heavy, so it will begin to shift.
 

jerdogg1 said:
I can't find any other sites where odds for that game are even listed yet, but there's no question that line will come down. They set those lines so early to get some action going, and I would bet that the action on the Gophers is heavy, so it will begin to shift.
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The Greek has the Gophers as a 4 point dog.

I don't see too much action being bet on this game and I think the line will stay right around this right up until kick-off. Heavy action would have been on MTSU if the Gophers had opened up as favorites but unless this goes up to -6.5 I doubt much action will be on the Gophers at all. If the line does move on the Gophers money will come back in on MTSU. IMO if the line was -3 MTSU would have a lot of money placed on them.
 



monk10 said:
I'm betting on a scenario like the first hand of the last scene in Rounders. MTSU will try to come out looking tough. We'll chop a leg out from them, and lean on them the rest of the game until they fall over.
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I thought that was the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail? :p
 


dpodoll68 said:
The surprising thing is that some people actually seem to be surprised by this.
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No kidding. It's been pretty obvious for awhile that MTSU would be favored, especially at home. And many have posted it here as well. Since it is that obvious, its not like the line should be 1 or 1.5. I thought it might be around 3, but 4.5 doesn't surprise me at all. 7 would have surprised me.
 

Easy money.

People who make lines are not in the business of picking winners, they are in the business of making money. If the line was gophers by 2, everyone and their mother around the country would pick MTSU. Getting the Gophers and 4.5 points is easy money, but nationally it probably splits the bets.
 

i will be taking this bet. there is no way mtsu beats us and there is no way mtsu is within 14! i dont respect what they did last year and i think we will be a much better team this year!
 




allpro.com is a canadian site that I really like. Very user friendly. As far as I know the legality of online sportsbetting is still grey. There has never been anyone prosecuted for sports betting online that I've heard of.

I had my line set at MTSU -6 for this game. I don't think i would touch either side in this game just because there are too many unknowns coming in. Both teams have new O cords, Minne has so many new starters on D. Given the QB for MTSU I would lean thier way in this game. I hope our defense can contain the ends, something we traditionally struggle with against quick QB's.
 

Kind of depends on what type of offense shows up for that game. Something similiar to the Michigan State game last year and the Gophers win, the Gopher offense that appeared for the South Dakota State game and they lose.

Important game that is for sure.
 

There are two different questions. One is "should the Gophers be underdogs", the other is "should we expect the Gophers to be underdogs". The latter is easy, given the pundits predictions. The former is more difficult. The pundits predictions are based on assumptions with little research. Most people think the offense couldn't help but be better. If the defense turns out not to be so awful, we might surprise a lot of people.
 

RodentRampage said:
There are two different questions. One is "should the Gophers be underdogs", the other is "should we expect the Gophers to be underdogs". The latter is easy, given the pundits predictions. The former is more difficult. The pundits predictions are based on assumptions with little research. Most people think the offense couldn't help but be better. If the defense turns out not to be so awful, we might surprise a lot of people.
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They are underdogs because unbiased analysis was done by people/companies who evaluate these teams and matchups for a living. As a result of there analysis, (considering recruiting,player matchups, injuries..etc) they decided the gophers were underdogs. To claim that these pundits do "little research" is laughable. Drink the Kool-Aid some more.

Efficient Market hypothesis...please look it up.
 

c'monman said:
They are underdogs because unbiased analysis was done by people/companies who evaluate these teams and matchups for a living. As a result of there analysis, (considering recruiting,player matchups, injuries..etc) they decided the gophers were underdogs. To claim that these pundits do "little research" is laughable. Drink the Kool-Aid some more.

Efficient Market hypothesis...please look it up.
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He's talking about sports journalists, not bookmakers who set betting lines.

But given your vast level of intelligence (as exemplified by your expert usage of homophones and capitalization), I'm sure you're already aware of that.
 

dpodoll68 said:
He's talking about sports journalists, not bookmakers who set betting lines.

But given your vast level of intelligence (as exemplified by your expert usage of homophones and capitalization), I'm sure you're already aware of that.
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talking about sports journalists? He gave no indication in his post that he was referring to sports journalists. Please look at the thread heading next time. Thanks for the grammar lesson though.lol
 

c'monman said:
He gave no indication in his post that he was referring to sports journalists.
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Perhaps the use of the word "pundits"? Let me know the next time you hear a bookie referred to as a "pundit". It will be your first.

c'monman said:
Please look at the thread heading next time.
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First day on the internet? Unaware that people don't stick religiously to the thread topic?

I've obviously been on this board much longer than you, and I know what individual posters like to talk about. As I know RR's style and what interests him, I know what he was talking about. Most of the core, longtime posters would also understand without him needing to elucidate. Since you quite clearly don't, perhaps you should've asked for clarification before you gave him a lecture on market analysis.
 

c'monman said:
They are underdogs because unbiased analysis was done by people/companies who evaluate these teams and matchups for a living. As a result of there analysis, (considering recruiting,player matchups, injuries..etc) they decided the gophers were underdogs. To claim that these pundits do "little research" is laughable. Drink the Kool-Aid some more.

Efficient Market hypothesis...please look it up.
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First of all, you're a moron. Let's just get that out of the way.

Second of all, I was talking about the pundits, who put little research into how the Gophers will actually do. They put maximal research into the top teams, and much less in the rest of the teams. Just reading their limited analyses, one thing that stands out is that it is based on assuming that the Gophers will have a terrible defense based on losing 9 starters. They have done little if any research into whether the new starters will be any good.

Thirdly, you have no understanding on how lines are set. They aren't based on analysis. They are based on how people are actually betting. The lines move based on changes in bets. There are people who do analysis of the games, but they aren't the people who make the lines, they are the people who sell tips to people regarding whether the which way to bet agains the lines.
 


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