What are your expectations for the Gophers

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chi-town gopher

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I have always thought my expectations for the Gophers were higher than most, but it seems the people on this board are ready to write off the program over losing a good (but not great) high school player from Wisconsin. I thought it would be fun for everybody to list what they think are reasonable expecations for this team over a 10 year period of time.

-20 win season every year
-9 tournament appearances
-3 trips to the sweet 16
-1 Final Four
-1 Big Ten regular season title
-1 Big Ten tournament title
-3 Top 3 finishes in the Big Ten
-2 or 3 Big ten title game appearances
-Winning record against BCS non-conf opponents

Are these too high? Too low?
 

chi-town gopher said:
I have always thought my expectations for the Gophers were higher than most, but it seems the people on this board are ready to write off the program over losing a good (but not great) high school player from Wisconsin. I thought it would be fun for everybody to list what they think are reasonable expecations for this team over a 10 year period of time.

-20 win season every year
-9 tournament appearances
-3 trips to the sweet 16
-1 Final Four
-1 Big Ten regular season title
-1 Big Ten tournament title
-3 Top 3 finishes in the Big Ten
-2 or 3 Big ten title game appearances
-Winning record against BCS non-conf opponents

Are these too high? Too low?
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I think it is a little too high without Tubby, a little too high with Tubby's recruiting of late, but who knows it could be plausible if Saul Smith takes over, brings some young blood to the recruiting circuit and we get a practice facility in the next three years.
 

Umm, not that I think your predictions are too high or too low but 10 years is a long time... We don't know who's going to be coaching or team in 5 years let alone how our program is going to look in 10.

That said, I think that we should EXPECT to comfortably make the Tournament every year, but I don't feel comfortable saying that we should EXPECT to make the Sweet 16 (it sounds too conceited to me). I think we should have a good chance at the Sweet 16 every year though, at least a better chance than we had last year. I do feel that we had a decent chance at making the Sweet 16 last year though - our record and seed in the Tournament did not reflect how the Gophers were playing at the end of the year IMO.
 

well you can't honestly expect Tubby to coach for 10 more years much less 3. He is getting old. I think he has a couple more years left in him, in that we will reach a sweet 16 or maybe even an elite 8 if we land in a good brackett. Then he leaves the program to Saul who provides a longterm coaching fufilment and does his job well, afterall he did learn from one of the greatest.
 

chi-town gopher said:
I have always thought my expectations for the Gophers were higher than most, but it seems the people on this board are ready to write off the program over losing a good (but not great) high school player from Wisconsin. I thought it would be fun for everybody to list what they think are reasonable expecations for this team over a 10 year period of time.

-20 win season every year
-9 tournament appearances
-3 trips to the sweet 16
-1 Final Four
-1 Big Ten regular season title
-1 Big Ten tournament title
-3 Top 3 finishes in the Big Ten
-2 or 3 Big ten title game appearances
-Winning record against BCS non-conf opponents

Are these too high? Too low?
Click to expand...

This is about right. I might be OK with 7-8 tournament appearances out of 10. Even at 68 it's not a slam dunk to make it every year.
 


Here Are Mine

25 W (average) per season, not every year.

Big 10 title and/or tourney title every 3-4 years

NCAA tourney every year.

Sweet 16 every 2-3 years.
 

Go Gophs eh? said:
well you can't honestly expect Tubby to coach for 10 more years much less 3. He is getting old. I think he has a couple more years left in him, in that we will reach a sweet 16 or maybe even an elite 8 if we land in a good brackett. Then he leaves the program to Saul who provides a longterm coaching fufilment and does his job well, afterall he did learn from one of the greatest.
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Baloney. He's 59. He can coach 7-10 more years.
 





chi-town gopher said:
I have always thought my expectations for the Gophers were higher than most, but it seems the people on this board are ready to write off the program over losing a good (but not great) high school player from Wisconsin. I thought it would be fun for everybody to list what they think are reasonable expecations for this team over a 10 year period of time.

-20 win season every year
-9 tournament appearances
-3 trips to the sweet 16
-1 Final Four
-1 Big Ten regular season title
-1 Big Ten tournament title
-3 Top 3 finishes in the Big Ten
-2 or 3 Big ten title game appearances
-Winning record against BCS non-conf opponents

Are these too high? Too low?
Click to expand...

Seems like reasonable expectations to me, except for the NCAA's 9 out of 10. In an era where North Carolina can miss the tournament, I think 8 tournament appearances per 10 year span is more reasonable. I would personally have slightly higher expectations in the Big Ten with 1-2 Big Ten regular season titles and 4 top 3 finishes (including ties for 3rd) per 10 year span.
 


Go Gophs eh? said:
I think it is a little too high without Tubby, a little too high with Tubby's recruiting of late, but who knows it could be plausible if Saul Smith takes over, brings some young blood to the recruiting circuit and we get a practice facility in the next three years.
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Now that the U has proven they will pay a lot of money for a coach like Tubby, I'm not sure expectations should change a whole lot when he goes. I'm not saying they'll get a national championship winner, but I think they should be able to attract a very high quality coach.
 




I think everyone needs to remember where this program came from. Can we really EXPECT eight tourney appearances in 10 years and just assume two Sweet 16s? That's waaaaay too outrageous IMO. I think four NCAA Tournament wins in 10 years would be more realistic with MAYBE one Sweet 16. I think we should expect to make the Tournament six times and maybe finish in the top 2/3 of the League twice. Remember, the 80/90/early 2000s wasn't exactly a marquee time in the program's history. Also, why does everyone assume Saul Smith will take over?
 

BigGopherFan said:
I think everyone needs to remember where this program came from. Can we really EXPECT eight tourney appearances in 10 years and just assume two Sweet 16s? That's waaaaay too outrageous IMO. I think four NCAA Tournament wins in 10 years would be more realistic with MAYBE one Sweet 16. I think we should expect to make the Tournament six times and maybe finish in the top 2/3 of the League twice. Remember, the 80/90/early 2000s wasn't exactly a marquee time in the program's history. Also, why does everyone assume Saul Smith will take over?
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because he would want the job, he would except lower pay, and he would already know the deal. Its not worth it to hire anyone besides him unless they are a proven coach that goes to the tourney every year.
 

Go Gophs eh? said:
because he would want the job, he would except lower pay, and he would already know the deal. Its not worth it to hire anyone besides him unless they are a proven coach that goes to the tourney every year.
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Saul needs Div I head coaching experience before he coaches at BCS school like Minnesota.
 

BigGopherFan said:
I think everyone needs to remember where this program came from. Can we really EXPECT eight tourney appearances in 10 years and just assume two Sweet 16s? That's waaaaay too outrageous IMO. I think four NCAA Tournament wins in 10 years would be more realistic with MAYBE one Sweet 16. I think we should expect to make the Tournament six times and maybe finish in the top 2/3 of the League twice. Remember, the 80/90/early 2000s wasn't exactly a marquee time in the program's history. Also, why does everyone assume Saul Smith will take over?
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A lot has changed since the 80s with better high school talent in Minnesota, a willingness to pay a top level coach, etc. If you count the vacated wins the team won more than 4 tournament games in the 80s and 90s. I also think an expanded tournament should lead to the Gophers making the field just about every year. 9 might have been too much, but with 68 teams, 8 times in 10 years is not unrealistic at all.

One sweet 16 per decade is a very low goal.
 

Whenever that day comes, Saul should not be the Gophers' next coach. End of story.

I like Tubby, but that doesn't mean the U hands over a Big Ten program to his son.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Whenever that day comes, Saul should not be the Gophers' next coach. End of story.

I like Tubby, but that doesn't mean the U hands over a Big Ten program to his son.
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Correct 1000% he (Saul) needs Div I head coaching experience first. When Tubby retires, I doubt Saul will stay at Minnesota (if he's still on staff then). I think he'll move on in a year or two for HC experience.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Correct 1000% he (Saul) needs Div I head coaching experience first. When Tubby retires, I doubt Saul will stay at Minnesota (if he's still on staff then). I think he'll move on in a year or two for HC experience.
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Had Fred Hoiberg coached at a Div I university before being hired by BCS school Iowa State?

Granted, his name is Fred Hoiberg and he is very established in the game of basketball, but still no D1 head coaching experience.

I'm not saying hand the keys over to Saul right now, or when Tubby retires, no questions asked. but I see no reason they shouldn't give him a chance if he is the best candidate at the time just because he has never been a D1 head coach. However, if there is a better option available, clearly you wouldn't hire Saul for the sole reason his dad is Tubby.

But I would take Saul over the head coach of Sacramento State if that is what it came down to.
 

scher215 said:
Had Fred Hoiberg coached at a Div I university before being hired by BCS school Iowa State?

Granted, his name is Fred Hoiberg and he is very established in the game of basketball, but still no D1 head coaching experience.

I'm not saying hand the keys over to Saul right now, or when Tubby retires, no questions asked. but I see no reason they shouldn't give him a chance if he is the best candidate at the time just because he has never been a D1 head coach. However, if there is a better option available, clearly you wouldn't hire Saul for the sole reason his dad is Tubby.

But I would take Saul over the head coach of Sacramento State if that is what it came down to.
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No disrespect to Saul...but I can't envision a scenario in which he is the best candidate available and interested in the job.
 

scher, I really don't like your comparison. Hoiberg attended ISU (immensely popular), Hoiberg played in the NBA, successfully I might add. I understand both not having head coaching experience but...the ties to the schools are so much different, just different situations. I think it's a stretch to compare the two.
 

dpodoll68 said:
No disrespect to Saul...but I can't envision a scenario in which he is the best candidate available and interested in the job.
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I would hope not. But i just do not believe he should be immediatley axed from the discussion as a replacement simply because he has no D1 coaching experience.

I don't want to see the call made for the New Jersey Tech head coach over him simply because of the coaching experience.

I guess my point is that they should look at all factors of the candidate, like you should for any job opening, and not just how much experience they have.
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
scher, I really don't like your comparison. Hoiberg attended ISU (immensely popular), Hoiberg played in the NBA, successfully I might add. I understand both not having head coaching experience but...the ties to the schools are so much different, just different situations. I think it's a stretch to compare the two.
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I realize Fred Hoiberg's career and it actually makes my point slightly better.

What if Iowa State had said, "well Fred is a great guy and all, but since he has no D1 coaching experience I think we will go with that Monson guy from Long Beach State."

That'd be ridiculous.

The hire should be based on who the person is and who the hiring staff likes best overall. Not simply look at a list and say, well anyone with a zero in this column is eliminated right now regardless. Weather it is pertaining to Saul or someone like Flip Saunders, Kevin McHale, etc. (who are more similar in position as Hoiberg with Iowa State)

And out of curiousity I went and looked at the past of Coach K (Not to say Saul or anyone else is comparable to Coach K by any stretch of the imagination.)

Before coaching at Duke, he spent 5 years at Army, overall record barely above .500 (.553), including 9-17 his last season there.

Today he is one of, if not the best, head coach in college basketball. Just to state my point one last time, experience and/or the past should never be the sole detriment on how good someone will be as a head coach.
 


What if Iowa State had said, "well Fred is a great guy and all, but since he has no D1 coaching experience I think we will go with that Monson guy from Long Beach State." I see your point.
 

I do not want it to sound like I am saying, go hire Saul right now, he is amazing! But when it comes time for that decision to be made, I hope that they will look at any candidates entire body of work (motivation skills, philosiphy, likability, work ethic, and yes, experience, etc.) and not immediatley say to anyone with no head coaching experience, interview over.
 

Expectations

An interesting question. I'll frame it in the context of my expectations under Tubby in his first 10 seasons (through 2016-17 season).

1. 20-win season 9 of 10 seasons. A reasonable expectation considering the general softness of nonconference scheduling, but have to allow for a "Murphy's Law" type of season somewhere. I supsect nonconference scheduling will get softer and softer as the tournament continues to expand, so 20 wins will continue to be a mostly watered-down stat.

2. 7 NCAA appearances. We're already 2 for 3 under Tubby. I certainly think making the NCAA 70% of the time with a coach of Tubby's acumen should be expected. If the field is eventually expanded to 96, I'd expect a bid every single season.

3. Tournament expectations? I'd go with a couple trips to the Sweet 16 and a couple of Elite 8s. I certainly think a Final Four trip is possible, but I'm not willing to make it an expectation. It's really, really hard to get to an Elite 8, let alone a Final Four. Just ask Mizzou, a a traditionally solid program with 22 NCAA appearances but no Final Fours. Basically, if the Gophers reach the Sweet 16 or better 2 of every 5 seasons, that would be a good accomplishment.

4. 2 Big Ten titles (regular season, outright or shared), 2 Big Ten Tournament titles.

5. 3 top-3 finishes in the Big Ten.

6. 4 or 5 regular-season Big Ten finishes that result in a Big Ten Tournament bye. That would mean finishing #5 or better this coming season, #4 or better once Nebraska is added.

7. To have a winning percentage of 42% or better vs. eventual NCAA qualifiers. The Gophers are currently 14-25 (35.9%) since Tubby took over. 42% would get the Gophers in the neighborhood of the top 25 among BCS programs.

8. To play a nonconference BCS opponent (and occasionally 2) at home every season, no excuses accepted. This shouldn't be very difficult to pull off, considering the Big Ten's involvement in the ACC Challenge.
 

Go Gophs eh? said:
good sarcasm. would you want to coach through your 60's? not me
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Whether you or I would want to coach through our 60's does not matter. What other people want just might differ from what you or I might want. Some coaches retire fairly early, others have to practically be dragged off the court.
 

This board accepts a lot of average metrics. MS's Tom Izzo has a team where everyone he has ever recruited has been on his roster for at least one final four game. That is one solid measure of a great coach.
 

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