The "What If" Roster And PT Projections

[Friend Of Tubby]

What if (means) Trevor Mbakwe and Royce White don't play for Gophers in 2010-11 season. Neither played in 2009-10 either. You don't really "lose" what you didn't really "have" anyway.

F Rodney Williams 20-25 mins, Oto Osenieks 10-15 mins, Dominique Dawson (walk-on)
C Ralph Sampson 25-30, Colton Iverson 20-25, Maurice Walker 10-15, Elliott Eliason (redshirt)
G Blake Hoffarber 25-30, Devoe Joseph 25-30, Al Nolen 25-30, Austin Hollins 10-15, Maverick Ahanmisi 5-10, Eric Stark (walk-on)

That's 200 minutes PT if you take the midpoints of the ranges.

Like 2009-10, little depth at F. But more depth at C. Solid G but inexperienced depth there.

Rodney and Oto must step up to replace Damian Johnson and Paul Carter.

Nolen returning fills the gap left by Lawrence Westbrook. Hollins and Ahanmisi must step up for Devron Bostick and Justin Cobbs.

20 W is certainly possible. If players develop, maybe more.

[Winnipegopher]

Key point and reason for optimism are with the three juniors. If two of Iverson, Joseph and Sampson develop into All Big Ten level players (it is possible), we could be a pretty good team.

Key will be avoiding injiuries as it is not a deep rotation unless the freshmen surprise.

[97alumni]

I agree - we never had Royce or Trevor so we don't know in concrete terms what their impact would be positive or negative to the team.

I agree with winnipegopher - the juniors and no injuries is key. Also Devoe needs to continue where he left off last year.

I'm also interested to see the team play without Westbrook. He definitely was the cause of some friction.

[Gold Vision]

This is Devoe's team this year. I bet he averages over 30 minutes. He is our only threat off the bounce right now. I think Bryant Allen will see more minutes than Maverick in that backup PG position. I'm not expecting a Gopher Football Bowl game this year with our brutal schedule, so he could see more time earlier in the year.

[SelectionSunday]

Even with our current problems, I'll be disappointed if the Gophers only win 20 games next season. This staff & team is still capable of more than just extending Tubby's 20-win thingee.

The way I see it, in all likelihood we're not gonna' beat Michigan State or Purdue. We probably don't have the horses to compete with those two. That's probably 4 losses, at best maybe we steal one of the four.

But after that -- Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State & Wisconsin included -- I'll expect the Gophers to win their fair share of games vs. the other teams expected to be in the 3-6 range. And certainly in Year 4 I would fully expect the program to be to the point where taking care of the perceived soft underbelly (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State) is expected. There's plenty of wins to be had, plus we don't have to play Illinois on the road.

Who knows, maybe if we somehow knock off one of the big boys (MSU or Purdue) early, gain some confidence. ...

[Go Gophs eh?]

Even though Royce and Trevor would have certainly been the best players on the team and probably some of the best in the conference, them leaving opens up spots for a good recruiting class. Land Coleman, Jesperson, and a pair of power fowards or point gaurds and we have a team.

[Winnipegopher]

Even though Royce and Trevor would have certainly been the best players on the team and probably some of the best in the conference,

Exactly what do you base this statement on? Neither has ever played meaningfully at D-1 level. Every year we hear redshirts etc dominate at practice. I remember reading similar comments about Adam Boone (who had a much stronger pedigree than Trevor) and posters had Steve (Sunshine) Esselink as the answer to shooting woes in the Monson years.

[Go Gophs eh?]

Exactly what do you base this statement on? Neither has ever played meaningfully at D-1 level. Every year we hear redshirts etc dominate at practice. I remember reading similar comments about Adam Boone (who had a much stronger pedigree than Trevor) and posters had Steve (Sunshine) Esselink as the answer to shooting woes in the Monson years.

I understand that. But you aren't a 5 star recruit for nothing. Plus Royce and Mbakwe had superior size and athelticism compared to anyone in the BT

[GophersOnTheRise]

Exactly what do you base this statement on? Neither has ever played meaningfully at D-1 level. Every year we hear redshirts etc dominate at practice. I remember reading similar comments about Adam Boone (who had a much stronger pedigree than Trevor) and posters had Steve (Sunshine) Esselink as the answer to shooting woes in the Monson years.

Anyone who questions whether Royce or Mbakwe would be among the best players on our team are people who have not seen them play and/or are not good at evaluating/projecting talent. Either that or you just don't want to dwell on losing them and are pretending they might not have been that good so it hurts less to lose them.

[Friend Of Tubby]

What if (means) Trevor Mbakwe and Royce White don't play for Gophers in 2010-11 season. Neither played in 2009-10 either. You don't really "lose" what you didn't really "have" anyway.

F Rodney Williams 20-25 mins, Oto Osenieks 10-15 mins, Dominique Dawson (walk-on)
C Ralph Sampson 25-30, Colton Iverson 20-25, Maurice Walker 10-15, Elliott Eliason (redshirt)
G Blake Hoffarber 25-30, Devoe Joseph 25-30, Al Nolen 25-30, Austin Hollins 10-15, Maverick Ahanmisi 5-10, Eric Stark (walk-on)

That's 200 minutes PT if you take the midpoints of the ranges.

Like 2009-10, little depth at F. But more depth at C. Solid G but inexperienced depth there.

Rodney and Oto must step up to replace Damian Johnson and Paul Carter.

Nolen returning fills the gap left by Lawrence Westbrook. Hollins and Ahanmisi must step up for Devron Bostick and Justin Cobbs.

20 W is certainly possible. If players develop, maybe more.

Another option, if Sampson plays PF:

WF Williams 20-25, Hollins 10-15
PF Sampson 25-30, Osenieks 10-15
C Iverson 20-25, Walker 10-15, Eliason 5-10
SG Hoffarber 25-30, Joseph 25-30
PG Nolen 25-30, Ahanmisi 5-10

[tjgopher]

Another option, if Sampson plays PF:

WF Williams 20-25, Hollins 10-15
PF Sampson 25-30, Osenieks 10-15
C Iverson 20-25, Walker 10-15, Eliason 5-10
SG Hoffarber 25-30, Joseph 25-30
PG Nolen 25-30, Ahanmisi 5-10


I partially agree with this option. If Trevor is not back, then I think the liklihood of Sampson-Iverson twin towers is very, very high. The season really turned around late last year when Iverson started playing well, and Tubby started using both bigs on the court together in a high-low game. I'm guessing Tubby won't wait 22 games into the season before trotting them out there together again. He resisted last year because he didn't want to risk one or both getting into foul trouble, but he probably won't have a choice this year if Trevor is out.

I would also suggest that it is possible the starting lineup could look like this - with two bigs and three guards:

C: Iverson
PF: Sampson
SG: Hoffarber
SG: Joseph
PG: Nolen

[station19]

I partially agree with this option. If Trevor is not back, then I think the liklihood of Sampson-Iverson twin towers is very, very high. The season really turned around late last year when Iverson started playing well, and Tubby started using both bigs on the court together in a high-low game. I'm guessing Tubby won't wait 22 games into the season before trotting them out there together again. He resisted last year because he didn't want to risk one or both getting into foul trouble, but he probably won't have a choice this year if Trevor is out.

I would also suggest that it is possible the starting lineup could look like this - with two bigs and three guards:

C: Iverson
PF: Sampson
SG: Hoffarber
SG: Joseph
PG: Nolen

This would probably be the best starting lineup. These five have by far the most experience. Rodney as the sixth man and plays a lot. After these six there is zero experience, or did I forget someone.

[Friend Of Tubby]

I partially agree with this option. If Trevor is not back, then I think the liklihood of Sampson-Iverson twin towers is very, very high. The season really turned around late last year when Iverson started playing well, and Tubby started using both bigs on the court together in a high-low game. I'm guessing Tubby won't wait 22 games into the season before trotting them out there together again. He resisted last year because he didn't want to risk one or both getting into foul trouble, but he probably won't have a choice this year if Trevor is out.

I would also suggest that it is possible the starting lineup could look like this - with two bigs and three guards:

C: Iverson
PF: Sampson
SG: Hoffarber
SG: Joseph
PG: Nolen

Agreed - those are the likely starters.

[Friend Of Tubby]

[/B]

This would probably be the best starting lineup. These five have by far the most experience. Rodney as the sixth man and plays a lot. After these six there is zero experience, or did I forget someone.

Purdue had zero experience (or pretty close to it) after starters in 2010 lineup.

Their freshmen contributed pretty well in limited roles.

[figi]

What if (means) Trevor Mbakwe and Royce White don't play for Gophers in 2010-11 season. Neither played in 2009-10 either. You don't really "lose" what you didn't really "have" anyway.

F Rodney Williams 20-25 mins, Oto Osenieks 10-15 mins, Dominique Dawson (walk-on)
C Ralph Sampson 25-30, Colton Iverson 20-25, Maurice Walker 10-15, Elliott Eliason (redshirt)
G Blake Hoffarber 25-30, Devoe Joseph 25-30, Al Nolen 25-30, Austin Hollins 10-15, Maverick Ahanmisi 5-10, Eric Stark (walk-on)

That's 200 minutes PT if you take the midpoints of the ranges.

Like 2009-10, little depth at F. But more depth at C. Solid G but inexperienced depth there.

Rodney and Oto must step up to replace Damian Johnson and Paul Carter.

Nolen returning fills the gap left by Lawrence Westbrook. Hollins and Ahanmisi must step up for Devron Bostick and Justin Cobbs.

20 W is certainly possible. If players develop, maybe more.
I look for Walker to get more minutes at the P.F. position.

[WanderingGopher]

20 W is certainly possible. If players develop, maybe more.


That's not exactly an optimistic outlook. A 20 win season in this day and age can be pretty mediocre, given the number of games (including NIT tourney games), and all of our gimme wins in non-conf and conf games against the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Penn State.

If this team doesn't at least make the NCAA and continue the perception of progress in the program, it'll be a big disappointment. The absence/loss of Mbakwe, White, Cobbs, and Carter changes my hope from Elite 8 to simply making the tourney.

[Friend Of Tubby]

That's not exactly an optimistic outlook. A 20 win season in this day and age can be pretty mediocre, given the number of games (including NIT tourney games), and all of our gimme wins in non-conf and conf games against the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Penn State.

If this team doesn't at least make the NCAA and continue the perception of progress in the program, it'll be a big disappointment. The absence/loss of Mbakwe, White, Cobbs, and Carter changes my hope from Elite 8 to simply making the tourney.

IF players develop (both returning guys AND recruits), I can see 26 W as maybe.

10 or 11 W in OOC. 11 or 12 W in B10. 2 or 3 W in B10 tourney. 1 or 2 W in NCAA.

Taking midpoints of each, that's 10.5 + 11.5 + 2.5 + 1.5 = 26 W.

[minngg]

Tubby does not like Nolen's game. I would not be surprised to see Nolen off the bnch and WIlliams starting at SF with Hoff and Joseph at guard.

[panndder]

Tubby does not like Nolen's game. I would not be surprised to see Nolen off the bnch and WIlliams starting at SF with Hoff and Joseph at guard.

I'll bite -- Why does he not like Nolen's game? Does Tubby Smith not look for lock-down perimeter defenders?

[underground629]

Where are you getting that idea from? Nolen has always been near the top in minutes and has always spoken extremely highly of Nolen's defensive ability and heart. He was definitely upset with Nolen's academic issues, but that's another story.


Tubby does not like Nolen's game. I would not be surprised to see Nolen off the bnch and WIlliams starting at SF with Hoff and Joseph at guard.

[Go Gophs eh?]

IF players develop (both returning guys AND recruits), I can see 26 W as maybe.

10 or 11 W in OOC. 11 or 12 W in B10. 2 or 3 W in B10 tourney. 1 or 2 W in NCAA.

Taking midpoints of each, that's 10.5 + 11.5 + 2.5 + 1.5 = 26 W.

Idk about that, especially knowing how tough the B10 will be this year, prolly the best conference in basketball, I think we will notch 20-23 W's if everything goes well.

[Gopher Nate]

Nolen will be key. His defense was missed last year but if he helps to shut down the perimiter, with the size inside Minn could be one of the top defenses again. And I believe he was averaging 4 or 5 assists/gm on the other side of the court, so he could also help run the offense. Aside from Nolen, Williams will need to develop, and a playmaker from the 2010 class would be helpful too. Devoe, Hoff and RS3 should be looking to have big years.