Optimism for 2010-11

As I've read through the board recently, it seems that many posters are pretty pessimistic about next season, to the point that some are even writing it off entirely. I'm actually feeling pretty good about the upcoming season for a variety of reasons.

1. Towards the end of the season, Devoe Joseph and Colton Iverson really seemed to grow into their games. Combined with Ralph Sampson III, I expect these three juniors to elevate their games next season to be consistent producers for the Gophers.

2. I know at this point you can't count on either, but I have to believe Al Nolen and Trevor Mbawke will be playing for the team next season. A combination of Nolen and Joseph handling the point should be manageable if Justin Cobbs does decide to transfer.

3. Early in the season Rodney Williams tantalized the fan base with his raw talent and then faded to the bench and sporadic playing time. As has already been discussed on this board, his development over the summer and into next season will be key. He certainly possesses the talent.

4. It's hard to imagine a season having more distractions than this past one-the suspensions before the season started of Mbawke, White and Bostick, the fight between Nolen and Westbrook, Nolen's ineligibility for second semester. Having weathered last season and advanced into the NCAA tournament despite all the adversity should give the veterans on this team confidence.

5. While Damien Johnson is sure to be missed especially with Paul Carter transferring to be near his sister, I'm of the mind that Lawrence Westbrook, despite being the leading scorer for the last couple seasons, will not be missed that much. I think Joseph will be ready to step into that spot and I also think the unity of the team will be better.

6. While I don't expect great contributions from the freshman recruits, I do think Maurice Walker and Austin Hollins will have opportunities to contribute. I've stated before that I suspect Tubby's gotten a gem in Hollins, although I would imagine his freshman contributions to be spotty.

7. As stated before, I believe Mbawke and Nolen will be with the team this upcoming season, which contributes to my optimism. The frontcourt of Iverson, Sampson, Mbawke, and Walker will be large and formidable. The backcourt of Joseph, Hoffarber, and Nolen is experienced and talented. Rodney Williams will have a great opportunity to shine on the wing and in transition.

8. While the Big Ten promises to have pretty formidable squads (Purdue, Mich. St., Ohio St., Illinois, Wisconsin, and Northwestern should all be tough and angling for the tourney) there is still the weak underbelly in Iowa, Penn St (especially if Battle leaves), Indiana with Michigan having to start over without Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims. I'm not guaranteeing 8 wins here (particularly with the improving talent in Bloomington and the troubles the Gophers have had with Beilein's Wolverines), but the opportunity is certainly there to make hay at the bottom of the conference.

9. I also think the weak non-conference schedule after the 76 Classic tournament this past season didn't do the Gophers any favors in prepping them for Big 10 play. I'm hopeful that the improved non-conference schedule that Selection Sunday has pointed out for us will help the Gophers be sharp heading into conference play.

10. I hate to even bring this point up, as it has been hashed and rehashed many times over, but since it brings my points to an even 10 I'll throw it out there-it seems that the Royce White window is still open; if he were to return to the team more mature, more committed I suspect we'd be welcoming onto the team a very talented player. I'm not expecting this to occur, but the possibility still seems to exist.

Agree With That Analysis

Gophers have a chance to be improved.

I'd want to see 25 W and Big 10 centender.

Excellent post, CHG....well done, sir. To expound on your comments regarding Hollins, I think he may be forced to play a larger role than what is normally expected of a freshman. Unless Tubby finds another guard worthy of a scholarship, we will be thin at this position. Rodney is best-suited for SF and that leaves us with Devoe, Blake and Al (if eligible) assuming that Justin is "goin' back to Cali, to Cali" as LLCJ would say. That will leave plenty of minutes for Hollins at SG and I also suspect that we will see a lot of Nolen and Joseph in the same backcourt. FOT has stated that Austin could be a real sleeper and that's exactly what this team needs...a player that far exceeds the expectations of the so-called recruiting "experts". I'm very excited for next season and expect a Top 3 finish in the Big 10 if Nolen and Mbakwe are on the roster.

I agree. There is absolutely no reason to think this team won't win 20-22 games next season. Not much of a drop off, in any. Mbakwe is the key. Think about this line-up:
Joseph
Hoffarber
Mbakwe
Iverson
Sampson

BigGopherFan said:

I agree. There is absolutely no reason to think this team won't win 20-22 games next season. Not much of a drop off, in any. Mbakwe is the key. Think about this line-up:
Joseph
Hoffarber
Mbakwe
Iverson
Sampson

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Too many posts (3) and not enough wings (2).

20 to 22 W is not enough.

25 W minimum.

A stellar recruiting recruiting season this summer/fall will really swing the momentum within the program. 3 locals Taylor/Coleman/Moats/or Travis and 2 top 150 national recruits- preferably including at least one top 100 will ease concerns about ineligible players and early departures.

Good post coolhand. I have to agree with you on everything there. I don't think there's any way we have a worse record in the big ten this year. We're definitely losing some valuable players, but I think a lot of people on here haven't been factoring in the improvement we'll see from our current players.

I don't know if I'm pessimistic about next year, but I assume we'll see very much of the same. Beat the bad teams, and lose to the good ones. We will probably make the tournament again and be a slight underdog in our first round matchup. I don't think we should be ashamed of this outcome, but I'm starting to doubt we'll be anything greater in the near future. I don't know if it's Tubby or just our school in general, but it sure seems like it's difficult to get the top end players to come here, and basketball is all about the top end players. John Wall could have taken any team in the country to the sweet 16.

GopherHomer said:

I don't know if I'm pessimistic about next year, but I assume we'll see very much of the same. Beat the bad teams, and lose to the good ones. We will probably make the tournament again and be a slight underdog in our first round matchup. I don't think we should be ashamed of this outcome, but I'm starting to doubt we'll be anything greater in the near future. I don't know if it's Tubby or just our school in general, but it sure seems like it's difficult to get the top end players to come here, and basketball is all about the top end players. John Wall could have taken any team in the country to the sweet 16.

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Beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams doesn't describe last year at all.

HUH?

BigGopherFan said:

I agree. There is absolutely no reason to think this team won't win 20-22 games next season. Not much of a drop off, in any. Mbakwe is the key. Think about this line-up:
Joseph
Hoffarber
Mbakwe
Iverson
Sampson

Click to expand...

Some people on these boards think you just put the biggest lineup on the floor and they get the auto win for the "looks good getting off the bus" prize. This lineup has no one who is good at defending the dribble on the perimeter. Mbakwe is not a sf. Joseph and the Hoff defense is average at best.

Nolen
Joseph
Hoff
Mbakwe
Sampson

Rodney, Colt, Hollins off the bench.

I'm pretty optimistic about '10-11

I don't think it's particularly fair to lump 4 teams in the "weak underbelly" category - it's not as easy to beat all those teams as you make it seem. All 4 of those teams are bringing in multiple new players, so I'm wary of assuming that since they were bad last year, they'll be bad again. At any rate, I'll agree that UM and Penn State are likely to be "weak" but I think we'll have to wait & see on the other two. IU could be much improved - one of the biggest reasons they struggled as much as they did was Maurice Creek got hurt halfway through the season. When they weren't turning it over, Iowa showed they could be pretty tough last year & if they get their TO problems addressed, they will see their conference record improve.

I generally tend to be optimistic about the Gophers, but until I hear (A) Mbakwe is acquitted or the charges are dropped and/or (B) Nolen will be eligible for the first semester, I have a hard time seeing the current Gopher roster finishing any higher than the middle of the Big Ten. Even with those two guys, we'll have a chore on our hands just to finish ahead of Michigan State, Purdue (Johnson & Moore will both be back), Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois (McCamey & Davis likely will return as well). At this point in time I'd say, at best, the Gophers will be battling Illinois & Northwestern for 5th in the conference.

Cory J's commitment to Texas, Nolen's uncertainty and Cobbs' likely transfer leaves us really thin at the PG position. That concerns me a great deal.

Don't confuse HOPE for a PLAN...

march madness said:

Some people on these boards think you just put the biggest lineup on the floor and they get the auto win for the "looks good getting off the bus" prize. This lineup has no one who is good at defending the dribble on the perimeter. Mbakwe is not a sf. Joseph and the Hoff defense is average at best.

Nolen
Joseph
Hoff
Mbakwe
Sampson

Rodney, Colt, Hollins off the bench.

Click to expand...

Were you watching the games that Iverson and Sampson were in the game at the same time? Toward the end of the season, teams got downright frustrated trying to score on the inside. That's why I think this starting 5 looks the best. Add Mbakwe (hopefully) to the equation and you have the most formidable frontcourt in the league. Period.

march madness said:

Some people on these boards think you just put the biggest lineup on the floor and they get the auto win for the "looks good getting off the bus" prize. This lineup has no one who is good at defending the dribble on the perimeter. Mbakwe is not a sf. Joseph and the Hoff defense is average at best.

Nolen
Joseph
Hoff
Mbakwe
Sampson

Rodney, Colt, Hollins off the bench.

Click to expand...

So you are saying Hoffarber has a better chance guarding a SF that Mbakwe? I don't agree with that. Truthfully, Rodney Williams would be the best spot at the 3 position (on paper), but I don't think he's ready to start. I would rather have Mbakwe at the 3 spot right away and funnel everything inside to the big boys.

I agree with the optimism. The gophers will be just fine. Devoe Joseph will be one of the best guards in the Big Ten next year. It is a very gaurd light conference and devoe has been continually improving. Kalin Lucas is really the only other solid guard i can think of right now that is back next year.

Shoot, you're getting me fired up, coolhand! I liked how our team stepped up at the end of last year. We should be in good position to make a strong step forward next year. If Devoe can get a bit more consistent, and find the game off the bounce that he had in a few games last year, we'll have the perimeter threat to go with what should be a good interior game.

Im not trying to be a downer here, but 25 wins? really? Lets take a closer look at the team next year.
Nolen - Can he play next year? Can he return to the same form as last year? I think yes. If he can take the next step and become a decent shooter?

Joseph - Carried us to through the Big 10 tourny. True, but can he translate this success to next year? can he sustain this success for a whole year? Show flashes of being a good player. Which player will he be next year?

Hoff - Great great great shooter. period. defense is a liability, has trouble driving to the hoop.

Mbwake - Has never played a Big 10 game before. Can he even play at this level. Even after having a year off?

Iverson - Look at Joseph.

Sampson - Just needs to be more aggressive next year. Almost seemed like he degressed as a player when Colt took off.

Williams - The sky is the limit. Hopefully he is working his tail off to become a star. But will he be ready this year? who know?

The freshman - i really dont know alot about them so im not gonna pretend like I do. Except no1 stands out to be a great recruit. All of them seem like projects.

White - No one knows whats happening about him. Everyone is sick of talking about him. He needs to play and put some numbers or just disappear from gopher nation. But he sure could play in HS


Anyways the point im making here is we have alot of question marks on this team. If everyone plays to there potential then maybe we can hit the 20 win mark. but i could see this same team only winning 15. i cant wait to find out

"Kalin Lucas is really the only other solid guard I can think of right now that is back next year."

I wouldn't exactly expect the Big Ten to be "guard light" next year. I see plenty of talented guards.

Illinois: McCamey (he should come back), Richardson
Indiana: Jones
Michigan State: Lucas, Lucious, Allen, Summers
Northwestern: Thompson, Crawford (G/F)
Ohio State: Buford, Diebler, Lighty (G/F)
Penn State: Battle (he'll come back)
Purdue: Moore (he'll be back)
Wisconsin: Taylor

I'm sure I'm missing a couple, too. I also liked the kid at Iowa (Eric May) when I saw him. Played on a bad team, but I like his potential.

BigGopherFan said:

Were you watching the games that Iverson and Sampson were in the game at the same time? Toward the end of the season, teams got downright frustrated trying to score on the inside. That's why I think this starting 5 looks the best. Add Mbakwe (hopefully) to the equation and you have the most formidable frontcourt in the league. Period.

Click to expand...

Agree 100%. I kept wondering why Colt and Ralph were not on the court at the same time for a long time last season until they did.

Go Gophers

SelectionSunday said:

I wouldn't exactly call the Big Ten "guard light" next year:

Illinois: McCamey (he should come back), Richardson
Indiana: Jones
Michigan State: Lucas, Lucious, Allen, Summers
Northwestern: Thompson, Crawford (G/F)
Ohio State: Buford, Diebler, Lighty (G/F)
Penn State: Battle (he'll come back)
Purdue: Moore (he'll be back)
Wisconsin: Taylor

I'm sure I'm missing a couple, too. I also liked the kid at Iowa (Eric May) when I saw him. Played on a bad team, but I like his potential.

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i was assuming all declared would stay out, but even still, there are not many "elite" guards next year. Diebler is another version of blake. buford id put up there tho with kalin lucas (tho not as good) and McCamey from Illinois is prolly the other one with Moore from Purdue. Devoe is better than Battle IMO, Battle can only shoot stationary three's.

I more meant it as though that Devoe will be a lot better, i think what we saw in the BTT was what we will see a lot of next year, meaning he is capable of playing with any big ten guard.

scher215 said:

Devoe is better than Battle IMO, Battle can only shoot stationary three's.

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I actually laughed out loud reading that.

If you want to be taken seriously, you're going to have to do better than that scher.

I guess the term "better" is subjective, but I wouldn't personally call being inferior in nearly every measurable statistical category "better." But that's just me.

ShowinGoldyLove said:

I actually laughed out loud reading that.

If you want to be taken seriously, you're going to have to do better than that scher.

I guess the term "better" is subjective, but I wouldn't personally call being inferior in nearly every measurable statistical category "better." But that's just me.

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I'm gonna save this post for when devoe is all big ten next year lol I just feel like he will have a break out season next year and be the big time scorer that we have recently been lacking

So we would have 3 post players in our starting lineup...

BigGopherFan said:

So you are saying Hoffarber has a better chance guarding a SF that Mbakwe? I don't agree with that. Truthfully, Rodney Williams would be the best spot at the 3 position (on paper), but I don't think he's ready to start. I would rather have Mbakwe at the 3 spot right away and funnel everything inside to the big boys.

Click to expand...

I know you said in your opinion, but Devoe is better than Battle? Seriously? I wish that were true. Not saying he can't get there, but he definitely isn't there right now.

scher215 said:

i was assuming all declared would stay out, but even still, there are not many "elite" guards next year. Diebler is another version of blake. buford id put up there tho with kalin lucas (tho not as good) and McCamey from Illinois is prolly the other one with Moore from Purdue. Devoe is better than Battle IMO, Battle can only shoot stationary three's.

I more meant it as though that Devoe will be a lot better, i think what we saw in the BTT was what we will see a lot of next year, meaning he is capable of playing with any big ten guard.

Click to expand...

underground629 said:

I know you said in your opinion, but Devoe is better than Battle? Seriously? I wish that were true. Not saying he can't get there, but he definitely isn't there right now.

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Battle benefits greatly from being on a sub par Penn State team (easier to pad his own points stats, however is harder to get assists), Devoe has a lot more talent around him, limits his scoring, plus Lawrence Westbrook who doesnt believe in the pass.

Stat wise last season, other than PPG, they are very similar. Devoe is not that far behind Battle stat wise, and also is a year younger.
Battle Joseph
Points per 40 Minutes 20.0 14.7
Field Goal Percentage 42.0% 39.3%
3-Point Percentage 35.0% 38.8%
Assists Per Game 4.161 3.0
Assist / Turnover Ratio 1.8 1.6
Turnovers Per Game 2.323 1.886
Steals Per Game 1.065 0.829
+ / - Average 1.1 1.4
Roland Average 1.7 5.2

I think Battle is twice the pg Joseph is. He put up great numbers on a team with very little talent. Joseph has a great step back jumper, other than that, he has average starting big ten guard skills.